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College Football Week 11 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Akron out-gained Ohio 435 to 307 yet lost 24-10.  3-0 turnover ratio.

Toledo out-gained Western Michigan 501-437 yet lost 38-41.   1-0 turnover ratio and an onside kick killed them.

Colorado State out-gained Boise State 315 to 291 and won the turnover battle 1-2 yet lost 52-21.   3 special teams touchdowns did them in bad.  Some of that garbage yards.

Iowa only out-gained Minnesota 346-312 yet they won 35-7.  2-1 turnover ratio hurt Minnesota and bad efficiency.

Tulane only out-gained Army 368-303 yet won 38-12.  A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt Army and their triple option was shut down.

Penn State out-gained Nebraska 501 to 298 yet lost 23-30.  Defensive touchdowns and bad efficiency for Penn State killed them.  2-1 turnover ratio.

Georgia Southern out-gained Texas State 437 to 299 yet only won 40-38.  GS won turnover battle 2-3.

Louisville out-gained Virginia 478 to 368 yet lost 31-17.  3-2 turnover ratio and the fact that they are named Louisville hurt them.

 

College Football Week 12 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let Down Spots:  

No major upsets so not many.

Nebraska could let down hosting Illinois after beating Penn State outright.

Wisconsin could let down a little at Northwestern due to a massive Michigan victory.

Tulsa could let down vs Tulane after beating ranked SMU.

Get up spots:

I could see a max effort from Charlotte at Marshall.

UCLA and Chip Kelly going to Oregon where he used to coach.

UCF has a massive game vs undefeated Cincinnati.

NC State will want to beat Liberty after what Liberty has done to the ACC so far.

Indiana at Ohio State is their ultimate test.

Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina will affect the Sun Belt standings.

Penn State will be desperate for a win hosting Iowa.

Look ahead spots:  

Auburn could be looking past Tennessee to Alabama.

Alabama could be looking past Kentucky to Auburn.

Washington could be looking past Arizona to Washington State.

 

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 11

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Bye Weeks:  NY Giants, San Francisco, Chicago and the Buffalo Bills

Key Injuries:

Drew Lock QB – Banged up ribs and Questionable.

Drew Breese QB – Broken Ribs and probably out for the fantasy season.

Teddy Bridgewater QB – Sprained Knee and is day to day.

Jaymycal Hasty RB – Broken Collarbone and out for the fantasy season.

Waiver Wire:

Jameis Winston QB – for the Breese injury.

Taysom Hill QB – Will get more action at QB and all positions for the Saints.

Tevin Coleman RB – has a bye week to finish healing but could get the bulk of the action now with Hasty out.

Willie Sneed WR – 2 TDs.

Josh Reynolds WR – 10 targets.

KJ Hamler WR – 10 Targets.

Pj Walker QB – For Bridgewater injury.

Jakeem Grant WR – Had a great day on Sunday with a TD and 5 targets.

Kalen Ballage RB – In case we didn’t mention him.

La’Mical Perine RB – Will get the carries.

Week 11 Non-starters trending up:

Christian Kirk WR – vs Seattle’s Pass D.

Dionte Johnson WR – vs Jacksonville’s pass D.

Justin Herbert QB – vs the Jets.

Amari Cooper WR – Believe it or not vs the Vikings pass D.   Also might have Dalton back.

Mike Williams WR – vs the Jets is a must start.

Marquise Brown WR – vs the Titans bad pass D should get some touches.

Damien Harris RB – vs Houston’s bad run D.

Kalen Ballage RB – vs Buffalo could have a game.  Buffalo’s run D hasn’t been great as of late.

Antonio Brown WR – will find his game vs the Rams when other players are focused on Evans and Godwin.

Week 11 Busts:

Valdez-Scantling WR – vs Indianapolis’s pass D.

Ronald Jones RB – vs the Rams D.

Malcomb Brown RB – vs Tampa Bay’s run D.

James Robinson RB – vs the Steelers.

Mike Evans WR – vs Jalen Ramsey.

Kenyon Drake RB – vs Seattle’s run D.

Chase Edmonds RB – vs Seattle’s run D.

Todd Gurley RB – vs the Saints run D.

Nasty Sleeper:  Antonio Brown – I think it is his week to get rolling here.  

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 68 – 20 – NFL Week 10 and NCAA Week 11 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 11 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Podcast Clean
The OddsBreakers Sports

We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NFL.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  Then, Kiev talks about a College football future bet that might have some value.   Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 12.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some  more motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 12!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

theoddsbreakers.com

For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

Better Odds Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Click here to watch!

Alan Cashman’s Week 11 CFB Game Projection Models

By
Alan Cashman
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Model F is 45-31-1 Last 2 Weeks

Here are Game Projection Model results so far in Wk 11 CFB

Model/Record

C 7-3

F 6-4

H 6-4

Unanimous 3-1

5 more Unanimous Picks for Saturday

Week 11 CFB Projections

Good Luck,

Alan

@TheCashmanwins

NFL Week 10 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

San Francisco vs New Orleans -9.5 O/U 50.5 – 

Lots of people might be fading the Saints here after pounding the Tampa Bay Buccanears but it sure won’t be me.  This spread went from 9 to 9.5 for a reason and it is due to the 49ers being a shell of themselves without their top guys.   This team doesn’t have any pass rush whatsoever and they really do not have any weapons to go to with Kittle being out.   Nick Mullens QBR is a dismal 38.6 which is in the range of a Dwayne Haskins and a Sam Darnold.   The Saints are finally getting healthy and their defense ranks number 2 against the run.  The 49ers will only have the run with so much talent out on offense.   The last thing for this handicap is that this Saints team was a little shocked last year when San Fransisco came into Mercedez Benz Superdome and hung 48 points on them.  Don’t think that Sean Payton doesn’t hold a grudge here.   Taking the saints -9.5

Saints -9.5 – 2 star premium shared

Tampa Bay vs Carolina +4.5 O/U 50.5 – 

Tampa Bay was exposed last game against the Saints and I think that Vita Vea injury has gotten to them.   It was a windy day yet Drew Breese and company had a field day against this defense.   Now Carolina’s defense isn’t great themselves ranking 17th in allowing 5.7 yards per play with Tampa ranking 3rd at 4.9 yards per play  but Carolina’s offense is good averaging 6.0 yards per play to Tampa’s 5.5.  I think Tom Brady and the Bucs are disappointed in their performance last game and they will play well, but Carolina played very well at Kansas City last week which will help them prepare for this team.   They also played Tampa losing 31-17 on the road making this a sort of revenge spot.   The Panthers play tough wherever they go and I think this number is too high at 6 and should be more around 3.5.

Carolina +4.5 – 1.5 star premium shared and sprinkle

Houston vs Cleveland -3 O/U 54

This one is a spot play for me.   I have the spread about Cleveland -3.3 holding everything the same but the fact that Cleveland is coming off of a bye week is where the upgrade comes in.   Cleveland has had a lot of time to figure out how to face DeShawn Watson and the Browns secondary has gotten healthier.   Nick Chubb should be back for this team as well giving them some explosive play potential.  Cleveland needs this win here because they have taken a lot of criticism as of late.   Houston’s defense ranks 3rd worse in total yards allowed at 417 per game.   Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk ran a few numbers for me looking at this situaton.  Over the last 5 years teams on the road after a road win are only 46.6% ATS.  an Away dog off of an away in are a better 48.1% ATS but an away team after an away win facing a team off of a bye week is only 41.2% ATS.   Advantage Cleveland.  I think the Browns have some upside here.

Cleveland -3 – 2 star premium shared

Refuse To Lose teaser:  We are now 6-3 with this teaser:  Baltimore to -1 with the Bills to 

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 2-5 so far this year.  This one pays about 10-1:  NCAA ATS – East Carolina +27.5-113, NCAA ML: Tulane -5-108, NC State -345, USC -614, Nevada -928, San Jose State -735, NFL: New Orleans Saints -443, Baltimore Ravens -328

NFL Week 10 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon

Sharp money on:

Packers -13 hosting Jacksonville – 43% tickets and 63% of the money.

Panthers +6.5 to +4.5 – 63% tickets and 76% of the money but some buyback.

Dolphins -2.5 hosting the Chargers – 58% tickets and 87% of the money.

Saints -7 to -9.5 hosting the 49ers – 72% tickets and 92% of the money.  Dual action.

Sharp Totals:

Jaguars vs Packers under 55 to 51 – 57% tickets and 81% of the money.

Bucs vs Panthers over 47 to 50.5 – 66% tickets and 97% of the money.

Bills vs Cardinals over 49 to 55 – 65% ticket and 94% of the money.

Seahawks vs Rams over 53.5 to 55.5 – 47% tickets and 79% of the money.

Vikings vs Bears over 45 – 43% tickets and 86% of the money.

College Football Week 11 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon

Sharp money on:

Iowa-2.5 to -3.5 at Minnesota – 51% tickets and 69% of the money.

Marshall -23.5 hosting Middle Tennessee State – 50% tickets and 95% of the money.

West Virginia -2 to -3 hosting TCU – 71% tickets and 96% of the money.

Kentucky -17 hosting Vanderbilt – 45% tickets and 82% of the money.

Illinois +6.5 at Rutgers – 17% tickets and 55% of the money.

Houston -13.5 to -14 hosting South Florida – 59% tickets and 83% of the money.

UAB -13.5 hosting North Texas – 49% tickets and 74% of the money.

USC -12.5 to -14 – 55% tickets and 84% of the money.

Georgia Tech +7.5 to +6.5 hosting Pittsburgh – 33% tickets and 66% of the money.

Wisconsin PK to -4.5 at Michigan – Dual action 68% tickets and 85% of the money.

Utah -2.5 to -3.5 at UCLA – 68% tickets and 87% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Iowa at Minnesota over 55 to 58 – 61% tickets and 97% of the money.

Army vs Tulane under 50 to 47.5 – 42% tickets and 70% of the money.

MTSU vs Marshall over 55 to 57 – 65% tickets and 97% of the money.

Georgia State vs Appalachian State under 64.5 to 62.5 – 44% tickets and 95% of the money.

Ohio State at Maryland over 70 to 74.5 – 52% tickets and 89% of the money.

Colorado vs Stanford under 58 to 54 – 44% tickets and 97% of the money.

Baylor vs Texas Tech under 60 to 57.5 – 55% tickets and 99% of the money.

Hawaii vs San Diego State over 51 to 52.5 – 27% tickets and 75% of the money.

Oregon at Washington State under 60 to 57 – 19% tickets and 88% of the money.

Washington vs Oregon under 57 to 52.5 – 56% tickets and 97% of the money.

Utah vs UCLA over 57.5 to 59.5 – 58% tickets and 90% of the money.

College Football Week 11 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
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LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 23: Quarterback Kedon Slovis #9 of the USC Trojans passes the ball in the first half of the game against the UCLA Bruins at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

USC vs Arizona +14 O/U 67.5 –

USC really got a scare against ASU and could have lost that game ASU got into field goal range.   I think that they walk into this game vs Arizona trying to make more of a comfortable game.   There is no better opponent for USC to face than a Kevin Sumlin led Arizona team that has a ton of new faces .  Sumlin to me is one of the worst coaches in college football and to add to that, Arizona allowed 6.4 yards per place last year and I can’t see any initial improvement there.   This team ranked 120th out of 130 teams allowing 471 yards per game.   On offense, Grant Gunnell comes back who was 14-11 TD to turnover ratio and 60% passing success.  He loses 3 out of 4 skill positions to start the 2020 season.   Last week their game vs Utah was cancelled due to Covid so they are really thrown off here having to go face the top ranked team in the Pac 12 right off of that bat.  My power ratings have USC an 18 point favorite here and I think they win this one comfortably.

USC -14 – 2 star premium shared

Florida State vs NC State -9.5 O/U 60 – 

A couple of things stand out to me this game.  First of all, this spread seems kinda low and maybe it’s because NC State has been playing with their backup quarterback.   Well looking at their backup Baily Hockman, he has been serviceable so far and played quite well vs Miami last week.   He helped beat Duke by double digits a few weeks back as well.  Florida State’s quarterback Jordan Travis has been pretty bad with a 4-5 TD to interception ratio at only 52% completion percentage.  He is also questionable to even play this week.  The biggest thing for me here is that although NC State is -.2 yard per play, Florida State is a -1.6 yards per play and it doesn’t look like that will improve any time soon.  The Seminoles have played 3 away game they have lost all of them by more than 2 touchdowns.  Gonna take the Wolfpack here to cover the 7.

NC State -9.5 – 3 star premium shared 

Listener Request Zack Dean – Army vs Tulane -4 O/U 48 – 

This spread stuck right out to me like a sore thumb when I saw it.  I waited in hopes that it would go down closer to 3 but when it literally didn’t move, I realized I better hit this early.  Tulane has been improving throughout the year.  They took care of East Carolina on the road last week and have really figured out their offense.  Their only weakness is on defense against the pass but they should not have to worry about that when facing a triple option team like Army.  Ya see, Tulane already faced an option team this year in Navy and they completely shut down the option for the first half of the game.  During the second half, Navy switched quarterbacks and ended up beating Tulane but it was through the air that made that happen.  Tulane has a fantastic rushing defense only allows 3.04 rushing yards per per play and I expect much of the same against their second option opponent this year.  I think Army gets stuffed and this is definitely my favorite play of the week.

Tulane -4 – 3.5 star premium shared play – 

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