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Podcast 67 – 20 – With ESPN’s David Bearman – College Football Week 11 & NFL Week 10 – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today!   David Bearman @DBearmanESPN is back to break down a little College Football and a lot of NFL with some leans and plays for this weekend!  First, Kiev Kiev talks about a few listener questions about bank-roll management.  Next, Kiev gives out three college football free plays for this weekend.  Then, David comes on to discuss their top NFL teams and their MVP favorites trending so far for this year.  Next, the gusy break down some NFL games with some leans and plays for week 10!  Then, Kiev gives out  his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is now 6-3 as well as his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS Parlay for fun that pays out at 10-1 this week.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.

NFL:  Houston vs Cleveland – Tampa Bay vs Carolina and more!

NCAA: USC vs Arizona – Army vs Tulane and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

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NFL Week 9 Misleading Final Scores and Motivational Spots

Chicago out-gained Tennessee 375 to 228 but a 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible efficiency killed them.   Lots of that was Garbage yards so I am still downgrading the Bears.

Seahawks had about the same yards as the Bills but lost 44-34 due to a bad start and 4-0 turnover ratio.

The Colts out-gained the Ravens 339 to 266 yet lost 24-10.  2-1 turnover ratio hurt and Phillip Rivers.

Washington out-gained the NY Giants 403 to 350 yet lost 23-20.  5-0 turnover ratio killed them.

The Chargers out-gained the Raiders 440 to 320 yet lost 31-26.  1-1 turnover ratio but bad defense and coaching hurt.

The Cardinals out-gained the Dolphins 442 to 312 yet lost 34 to 31.  1-0 turnover ratio and FG kicker killed it.

Let down spots:

Miami hosting LA Chargers after beating Arizona as a dog.

Saints hosting the 49ers after blowing out Tampa Bay.

Buffalo at Arizona after beating Seattle.

Get up spots:

Cleveland after the bye hosting Houston.

Indianapolis at Tennessee after that embarrassing performance vs the Ravens.

The Bears after losing 3 in a row hosting the Vikings.

Look ahead spots:

Packers could be looking past the Jaguars to the Colts.

 

 

College Football Week 11 Motivational Spots

Let down spots:

Notre Dame at Boston College after beating Clemson outright.

Florida hosting Arkansas is dangerous after they beat Georgia straight up.

Indiana at Michigan State after beating Michigan.

Liberty hosting Western Carolina after beating Virginia Tech.

Get up spots:

Georgia at Missouri is a get up spot for these kids.  QB issues at Georgia.

Penn State and Nebraska need to wake up in their game.

Boston College hosting Notre Dame.  BC’s quarterback Jurkovich played for Notre Dame.

Troy hosting Coastal Carolina is interesting for Troy.

Houston hosting South Florida needs to get it right.

San Diego State hosting Hawaii after their loss to San Jose State.

Boise State hosting Colorado State after losing bad to BYU on the smurf turf.

Look ahead spots:

Florida State could be looking past NC State to Clemson.

Coastal Carolina looking past Troy to Appalachian State.

Indiana looking past Michigan State to Ohio State is sandwiched.

Cincinnati looking past East Carolina to UCF is a big one.

UCF looking past Temple to Cincinnati.

Kentucky looking past Vanderbilt to Alabama is possible.

Hawaii looking past San Diego State to Boise State is possible.

 

College Football Week 10 Misleading Finals Scores

Ball State out-gained Miami Ohio 478 to 418 yet lost 38-31.  1-1 turnover ratio too.

Wyoming out-gained Colorado State 465 to 342 yet lost 34 to 24.  a 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Oregon State out-gained Washington State 459 to 456 yet lost 38-28.  Also won the turnover battle 0-1 ratio.  Woof.

Nebraska out-gained Northwestern 442 to 317 yet lost 21-13.  2-2 turnover ratio as well.

Kent State outgained Eastern Michigan 435 to 302 yet only won 27 to 23.  Won turnover battle 1-2 as well.

Northern Illinois out-gained Buffalo 395 to 357 yet lost 49-30.  5-2 turnover ratio killed them.

Kansas State out-gained Oklahoma State 370 to 256 yet lost 20-18.  2-0 turnover ratio hurt.

Miami out-gained NC State 620 to 410 yet only wOn 44-41.  Also won turnover ratio 0-1.

San Diego State out-gained San Jose State 362-298 yet lost 28-17.  Bad efficiency and 3-1 turnover ratio hurt.

Penn State out-gained Maryland 434 to 405 and lost 35-19.   3-0 turnover ratio.  Brutal

Memphis out-gained South Florida 535 to 330 yet only won 34-33.   Just a 1-0 turnover ratio there.

USC out-gained ASU 556 to 392 yet only won 28-27.  4-3 turnover ratio didn’t help them.

Vanderbilt out-gained Mississippi State 478 to 204 yet lost 24-17.  5-0 turnovers will do it.

Fantasy Football Week 10

Bye Weeks: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and the Jets

Key Injuries:

Christian McCaffery RB – Hurt his shoulder or Ribs and is day to day.

David Montgomery RB – Concussion and is week to week.

Preston Williams WR – Foot injury.

Kyle Allen – QB – Broken Ankle.

David Johnson RB – Concussion.

Waiver Wire:

Kalen Ballage RB – He got a ton of work for the Chargers and now Jackson is hurt.

Ryan Nall RB – Bears for the injury to Montgomery.

Richie James WR – 13 targets and a boat load of yards.

Irv Smith TE – 2 TDs for the queens.

Breshard Perriman WR – Lots of catches for the Jets.

Denzil Mims WR – Getting some looks.

Jake Luton QB – great game for Jacksonville.

Alex Smith QB – Washington’s starter now with Allen out.

Duke Johnson RB – With David Johnson’s concussion

Back this week:

Nick Chubb RB

Week 11 Players trending up:

Cooper Kupp WR – vs that horrible Seattle pass D.

Taj Gibson RB – vs the Lions horrible run D.

JK Dobbins RB – vs a bad Patriots run D.

Allen Robinson WR – vs the Vikings bad pass D.

Allen Lazard WR – vs the Jaguars horrible D.

Jarvis Landry WR – vs Houston’s D.

Emmanual Sanders WR – vs the 49ers beat up D.

Matt Stafford QB – vs Washington

Busts:

Darrell Henderson RB – vs Seattle’s D.

Jamychal Hasty RB – vs the Saints D.

Evan Engram TE – vs Philadelphia’s D.

Tyler Lockett WR – vs the Rams D.

Joe Burrow QB – vs an angry Steelers team.

Tyler Boyd WR – vs the same Steelers team.

Nasty Sleeper:  Jarvis Landry WR – He’s due for a big game and with Odell out I think he gets it here. 

 

 

 

Podcast 66 – 20 – NFL Week 9 and NCAA Week 10 Recap and Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 10 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today after a great weekend of football!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in football.  Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations?  Next, we get into College Football misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 11.  Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some motivational spots.  What was real and what was garbage time?  Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 11!  Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football.  Who are the key injuries?  Who are we picking up on waivers?   Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust?  Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sports book please visit jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “Oddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!

The 2020 Breeders Cup

Hello Friends!   We can’t leave this wonderful horse racing season that kept us going all summer during Covid without a free play!   The Breeders Cup is the best of the best facing off this year and I am very excited for this race.  Gonna keep this short and sweet.  I like Improbable the most at this distance with Tiz the Law second.   The horses in this field can all make a good case but no horse has a better Beyers speed figures in their last 3 showings.   I am going to make this ticket more affordable for you all and you can just go half of my plays if it is still too much.  When the money comes in I think Tiz the law will be the favorite and the smallest payout.  Best of luck everyone!

 

Total:   $166

Straight
Keeneland, Nov 07, Race #12
8 horse to win/place
Improbable 1st 10
Improbable 2nd 10
2 bets
Ticket total
20

 

Exacta
Keeneland, Nov 07, Race #12
1st[2] – 2nd[8, 9]
2 bets @
15
Ticket total
30

 

Exacta
Keeneland, Nov 07, Race #12
1st[8, 9] – 2nd[2]
2 bets @
10
Ticket total
20
Exacta
Keeneland, Nov 07, Race #12
1st[2, 8, 9] – 2nd[2, 4, 8, 9, 10]
12 bets @
4
Ticket total
48

 

Trifecta
Keeneland, Nov 07, Race #12
1st[2, 8] – 2nd[2, 4, 8, 9, 10] – 3rd[1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10]
48 bets @
1.00
Ticket total
48

Better Odds Sports Betting 11/6/20

Check out our show.  Lots of great plays this week!!!

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College Football Week 10 Free Plays – Sports Betting

Since 2 games were cancelled:
West Virginia +5 – 2 star premium
UNC vs Duke over 62.5 – 2 star premium
LA Tech vs North Texas -1.5 O/U 71.5 –
North Texas Games average 83 points and they play lightning fast.  They average 81.5 plays per game and 19 seconds per play ranking them number 1 in the league for speed.   The Mean Green Machine also gives up 7 yards per play making them lose fast just in case they are not scoring every drive.  LA Tech plays at an average pace but they are at least putting up an average 30 points per game against teams with better defenses in general than North Texas.  They give up 32 points per game and are coming off of a huge win vs UAB.  I think this is a good spot to take this over being that LA Techs defense could let down this week.  I think that this number should be around 76 points per game.  The low spread could also mean overtime here or at least a shootout type game with no clocking it in the 4th.   I like this over.
LA Tech vs North Texas over 71.5 – 2 star premium shared play.
CANCELLED 🙁
Washington vs California -2 O/U 43.5 – 
This one is pretty simple to me.  Look at the history of this game the last 2 years under coach Wilcox.   Cal upset Washington both times.  They seam to have the Huskies number.   Now Washington has a new coach with the same system in Jimmy Lake who was the defensive coordinator there the last few years, and have a new offensive coordinator in John Donovan who came from the NFL Jacksonville Jaguars for gods sakes.  Washington ranks 127th in returning production with only 30% of their offense coming back.  They at least return 7 starters on defense.  Cal ranks 1st in returning production in the country and they return 7 starters on defense themselves.  on offense at 93%.  They lose their top 3 tacklers but I am not concerned as much about the defense as Justin Wilcox former Defensive coordinator at Wisconsin has a great defensive mind.  Washington’s new QB Jacob Simon has no experience throwing only 3 passes all of last year.  I gave this out at +1.5 but still like it at -2.  Take the Bears.
Cal Bears -2 – 2 star premium shared play
Georgia vs Florida -3.5 O/U 52.5 –
Time for the biggest cocktail party in the US taking place on the neutral field of TIAA bank Stadium.   Both fan bases will be there with Bells on.   Lets take a a deep dive here.  Georgia has the better defense allowing 16.2 points per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Florida’s defense improved last week but they still allow 29 points per game at 5.82 yards per play.   Georgia’s offense however went back into the stone-age last week against Kentucky only scoring 14 points.  Georgia averages 29 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.  Florida torched Missouri last week and averages a monsterous 7.5 yards per play on offense giving them a net 1.68 yards per play to Georgia’s 1 yard per play.   Now Georgia has had the more difficult schedule facing Bama, Auburn and Kentucky but Florida kept it close at Texas A&M and is now playing closer to the swamp.   One thing that I like about the Gators is that they did well against the run allowing only 3.75 yards per rush.  Running the ball is what Georgia needs to do to win games and if they get jumped it could be lights out.   The way the Gators needs to play this game is to stack that box and force Stetson Bennet to have to make plays.   Kentucky figured that out and they just couldn’t score many points.   I like the Gators here to not only cover but to win this one outright.
Florida +3.5 2 star premium play and sprinkle

NFL Week 9 Sharp Money

As of Wednesday afternoon:

Sharp Money On:

NY Giants +3.5 to +2.5 at Washington – 56% tickets and 88% of the money.

LV Raiders +3 down to +1 – 61% tickets and 88% of the money.

Saints +5.5 at Tampa Bay – 52% tickets and 79% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Green Bay vs San Francisco under 51 to 48.5 – 51% tickets and 72% of the money.

Carolina vs Kansas City over 50.5 to 52.5 – 57% tickets and 96% of the money.

Denver vs Atlanta over 47 to 50 – 66% tickets and 96% of the money.

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay under 54 to 51.5 – 41% tickets and 94% of the money.

New England vs NY Jets over 41.5 to 42.5 – 50% tickets and 86% of the money.  I agree there.  Both Ds are bad now