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NFL Week 8 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns -2.5 O/U 53.5
This is a simple handicap to me and I am going to keep it simple.  This came screamed at me on Tuesday morning and that’s when I gave it out.  If you look at the weather for this game it says 46 degrees, light rain and 23 mile per hour winds!    Welp, on to the run game then.   Whenever a windy day happens I first look to see what each team can do.   The Raiders average a 21st in the league 4.0 yards per run and the Browns are 4th in the league at 5.1 yards per rush.  Advantage Cleveland.   Now lets look at what they give up.   Las Vegas ranks 15th in opponent rushing yards per game allowing 120 per game while Cleveland ranks 5th allowing 92 per game.  Advantage Cleveland.   This game is being played of course in Cleveland.  My power ratings have Cleveland a 2 point favorite at home here but the situation favors them and adds at least 3 more points to the game.  I like the Browns here to cover the 2.5 here and I like them pretty big.  No need to get into greater detail.   Kareem Hunt is also just as good as Chubb.   No downgrade for that injury.
Cleveland -2.5 – 3 star premium shared play
Tennessee vs Cincinnati +6 O/U 54.5 –
The Bengals almost got the Browns last week and they are improving.  Misleading score right there because the Bengals out-gained them last week.  They do have a great offense, but horrible defense.  What do these 2 teams have in common?  Great offense, horrible defense.   Now it is true that Tennessee does dominate Cinci in most categories and they are coming off of a bad loss vs the Steelers, but does that mean they should be an 8 point favorite on a neutral field?  Joe Burrow has proven that he is dangerous and he can make big plays and ugly back door touchdowns especially against bad defenses such as Tennessee.  Every game that the Bengals played that was not against anybody named the Ravens finished within 5 points.   This includes teams like the Colts, Browns, Chargers and Eagles.  Not a terrible slate.  I think they can put on a show at home here.  My power ratings has this game Tennessee -4 points so I will take the becoming more common number of 6.
Cincinnati +6 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle
Miami Dolphins LA Rams -4  O/U 45 –
The Miami Dolphins are 3-3.  What a shocker!   The beat teams like the 49ers and….   ok, just the 49ers cause the Jags and Jets don’t count.  They did keep up well with the Bills.   Now what would be the dumbest thing a 3-3 team could do in my opinion?   Switch out their quarterback right when he’s hot.  What did the Dolphins do?   Switch out their quarterback when he is hot.  Ryan Fitzmagic from Harvard is now sitting and the Tua Tagovaiola era has begun.   Now when this happens after a team has caught there groove, I think it shows mixed messages in the locker room.   I think Fitz got the shaft here and I have to penalize the Dolphins 1.5 points on my power ratings bringing my numbers to the Rams -5.75 points with upside.  The Rams found their defense last week against the Bears and they could really shut down this team.   The under was also a sharper side from the start.   I gave this out at Rams -3.5 but I also like the -4.
LA Rams -4 – 2 star premium shared play
Refuse to lose Teaser is 4-3:  Broncos to +9 and the Bengals to +12 – 2 star premium shared.  – Both home dogs and their competition has weaknesses on defense as well as the Titans can’t stop anyone.

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay: NCAA: Nevada -565, Oklahoma -614, Florida -467, Georgia -687, UAB -453, NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -550 – Pays 1.75-1

College Football Week 9 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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UNC vs Virginia +6.5 O/U 61.5
I think this line may be a bit of an over-reaction from what Virginia did with Miami.  Virginia is a bottom feeder in my opinion in the ACC.  They are a net negative -.76 yards per play and have lost to lessor teams that North Carolina by double digits all year long.  UNC is having an amazing year out-scoring their opponents by 13 points per game and have an enormous 1.8 net yards per play advantage.  That is a net 2.6 yards per play for this game.   UNC is still reeling off of their Florida State loss from 2 weeks ago and I think they will be motivated to put one on the Cavaliers here.
UNC -6.5 – 2.5 star premium shared
Northwestern vs Iowa -2.5 O/U 47 –
This play will be based on pure over-reaction from last Saturday.  Northwestern destroyed a bad Maryland team.  The Terps had 4 turnovers and could not stop the run at all giving the Wildcat’s 6.13 yards per rush.  They just had to dink and dunk on the passing game to pile up the points.  On the other side of the script, Iowa out-gained Purdue and still lost due to a bad fumble that happened when they were driving to go up more than 3 points.   Purdue was able to score and Iowa had no time left for rebuttal.  Peyton Ramsey is the quarterback for Northwestern and he was a good player in Indiana but he didn’t do well when under pressure.  I think that Iowa should be able to get to him this game.   They key to this handicap for me is that Iowa has been well known to stop the run and that is what Northwestern thrived on last week.  Iowa will clean up the turnovers and possibly force some themselves at home.  NU is now jumping up in class and Iowa gets the W past the 2.5.   My power ratings has this game Iowa -4.5.  This is a good number for the Hawkeyes at home.
Iowa -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
Virginia Tech vs Louisville +3.5 O/U 67 –
So Louisville finally got their first win against that bad Florida State team.  Well Woopty freaking do as Chris Farley would say.  It was their first ACC win this year putting Louisville in a small let down spot.  The Cardinal’s stats look pretty good on paper at 6.33 yards per play, but when they stepped up and faced tougher competition like Notre Dame, they only were able to put up 7 points and 334 yards.   Now I am not saying that Virginia Tech’s defense is as good as Notre Dame’s but I am saying that it is probably not as far off as it looks.  Virginia Tech’s defense started out quite bad but after the UNC embarrassment, they seemed to get their act together holding Boston college to 14 points and @ Wake Forest to 23.  Louisville’s defense has been trending up as well holding Notre Dame to only 12 points and Florida State to 16.  Because of all this I like the under 67 and was surprised that the line went up from the opener.
Virginia Tech vs Louisville under 67 – 3 star premium shared play

NFL Week 8 Sharp Action

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Afternoon

Sharp money on:

Steelers +5.5 to +3.5 at the Ravens – 62% tickets and 80% of the money.

Titans -5.5 at Cincinnati – 68% tickets and 92% of the money.

Colts -2.5 to -3 at the Lions – 55% tickets and 82% of the money.

Patriots at the Bills +3.5 – 44% tickets and 69% of the money.

Packers -6.5 hosting the Vikings – 62% tickets and 95% of the money.

Chargers -2.5 to -3.5 – 62% tickets and 89% of the money.  Past the most key number.

Eagles -7.5 hosting the Cowboys – 64% tickets and 95% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Steelers vs Ravens under 48 to 45.5 – 36% tickets and 72% of the money.

Rams vs Dolphins over 46 – 27% tickets and 57% of the money.

Patriots vs Bills under 45.5 to 42 – Dual action 70% tickets and 83% of the money.  Maybe some buyback.

Raiders vs Browns under 55.5 to 52.5 – 58% tickets and 89% of the money.

Saints vs Bears under 47.5 to 43.5 – 59% tickets and 94% of the money.

Cowboys vs Eagles under 43.5 to 42.5 – 22% tickets and 74% of the money.

 

College Football Week 9 Sharp Action

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Criminal activity, illegal transaction, crime, mafia. US Currency. Cash. Money.

As of Wednesday afternoon:

Sharp money on:

East Carolina +17.5 to +16.5 at Tulsa – 30% tickets and 68% of the money.

Temple +4.5 at Tulane – 30% tickets and 63% of the money.

Cincinnati -6 to -6.5 – 66% tickets and 93% of the money.

Southern Miss -1 hosting Rice – 43% tickets and 71% of the money.

Troy +4.5 to +3 at Arkansas State – 69% tickets and 91% of the money.

Rutgers +13 to +11 hosting Indiana – 41% of the tickets and 91% of the money.

Iowa -2 hosting Northwestern – 43% tickets and 70% of the money.

Ohio State -11.5 at Penn State – 70% tickets and 94% of the money.

UNC -6.5 at Virginia – 62% tickets and 98% of the money.

San Jose State -9.5 at New Mexico – 35% tickets and 94% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Memphis vs Cincinnati under 60.5 to 55.5 – 38% tickets and 61% of the money.  Was larger

Iowa State vs Kansas under 55 to 52 – 48% tickets and 81% of the money.

Boston College vs Clemson over 59.5 to 61.5 – 37% tickets and 95% of the money.

Michigan State vs Michigan over 53.5 – 39% tickets and 76% of the money.

Georgia vs Kentucky under 44.5 to 43.5 – 55% tickets and 94% of the money.

UAB vs LA Tech under 49 to 47 – Dual Action 78% tickets and 99% of the money.

TCU vs Baylor under 50.5 to 48.5 – 36% tickets and 95% of the money.

Virginia Tech vs Louisville over 63.5 to 67.5 – 61% tickets and 98% of the money.  It’s me vs the sharps on this one.

Miss State vs Alabama over 62.5 to 64 – 53% tickets and 88% of the money.

Ohio State vs Penn State over 61 to 64.5 – 62% tickets and 88% of the money.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech over 66.5 to 69 – 40% tickets and 75% of the money.

San Diego State vs Utah State under 49.5 to 43.5 – 65% tickets and 93% of the money.

 

 

 

Alan Cashman’s Week 9 CFB Game Projection Models

By
Alan Cashman
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Please Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Subscribers are coming off of a 3-0 Football weekend with UTEP +16, Temple +14 and SF 49ers +3 all hitting

Below is the link to Week 9 CFB Game Projection Models.  Model C after a strong first 8 weeks fell hard last week so be aware of that.  Still a profitable model for us this season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PDYlT0EfGpzNMYfYqy1mcqE7pzI6jx8oy3OupD5Nvw/edit?usp=sharing

Good Luck,

Alan

Podcast 63 – 20 – With Tony George – College Football Week 9 & NFL Week 8 – Sharp Movements – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sports Betting - Tony George
Sports Betting - Tony George - The OddsBreakers

Happy Halloween!  We have a frighteningly great show for you today!   Tony George @TGeorgeSports is back to break down some College Football and NFL with some not so scary plays for this Halloween weekend!. First, we change it up a bit with Kiev breaking down his TOP 10 scariest movies of all time!  Next, Kiev talks about how sportsbooks try to “avoid” teaser bets throughout the week.  Then, Kiev talks about the Big 10 Covid-19 situation and gives out some plays.  Next, Tony comes on to break down more college football games and gives out some plays!  Then, Tony and Kiev give us a few free plays NFL plays for week 8!  Next, Kiev gives out even more ghoulish NFL plays and his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser with his BOW TO THE GAMBLING GODS parlay that pays out at 1.75-1.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.

NFL:  Pittsburgh vs Baltimore – Las Vegas vs Cleveland and more!

NCAA: Penn State vs Ohio State – Texas vs Oklahoma State and more!

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Should you need a sportsbook please visit betonline.ag and use the promo code, “Odds200” to get a 200% sign up bonus!!!!  Terms, conditions and location apply.

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NFL Week 7 Misleading Final Scores and Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Misleading Scores

Cincinnati out-gained Cleveland 468 to 398 yet lost 37 to 34.  A 2-1 turnover ration and 4-0 QB sacked ratio hurt them.

New Orleans out-gained Carolina 415 to 283 yet only won 27-24.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and penalties hurt them.

Buffalo out-gained the NY Jets 422 to 190 yet only won 18-10.  They also won the turnover battle 1-2.  Unreal.

The Dallas Cowboys didn’t out-gain one of the worst teams in the league.  They were destroyed.  Sorry Cowboy fans.  Not your year.

Texans 365 yards vs the Packers was garbage time.

Denver out-gained Kansas City 411 yards to 286 yet lost 43-16.   4-1 turnover ratio killed them.  Some went for touchdowns and a special teams TD as well.

Seattle out-gained Arizona 572 to 519 yet lost in overtime 37 to 34.  A 3-2 turnover ratio hurt bad.

Motivation Spots:

Let down spots:

None

Get up spots:

Vikings hosting the Packers is big for Minnesota.

Ravens hosting the Steelers to move into first place.

Cowboys at the Eagles is huge for the NFC East.

Look ahead spots:

Packers could be looking past the Vikings to the 49ers.

Saints could be looking past the Bears to the Buccaneers.

Bucs could be looking past the Giants to the Saints.

 

 

 

College Football Week 9 Motivational Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let Down Spots:

Wisconsin might think they are high and mighty after beating a bad Illinois team.

Oklahoma State hosting Texas after beating Iowa State.

Indiana at Rutgers after beating Penn State

Rutgers hosting Indiana after beating Michigan State cancels it out.

Purdue at Illinois after beating Iowa is one.

Get Up Spots:

FIU hosting Marshall after losing to FCS Jacksonville State.

Nebraska hosting Wisconsin after playing at Ohio State.

Penn State hosting Ohio State is huge.

Look Ahead Spots:

Purdue looking past Illinois to Wisconsin is a sandwich.

Boise State could be looking past Airforce to BYU.

BYU could be looking past Western Kentucky to Boise State.

Duke could be looking past Charlotte to North Carolina.

Indiana could be looking past @Rutgers to Michigan.  They are in a Sandwich spot.

Notre Dame could be looking past Georgia Tech to Clemson.

Clemson could be looking past Boston College to Notre Dame but less likely.

Georgia could be looking past Kentucky to Florida but they are coming off of a bye so doubt it.

Florida coming off of a few Covid weeks off could be looking past Missouri to Georgia.

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 8 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Michigan State out-gained Rutgers 369 to 276 yet lost 38-27.  A 7-3 turnover ratio hurt.

Iowa out-gained Purdue 455 to 386 yet lost 24-20.  Equal turnover ratio at 2-2.  Bad efficiency

Troy out-gained Georgia State 447 to 379 yet lost 36-34.  A 4-3 turnover ratio did them in.

UTEP out-gained Charlotte 374 to 329 yet lost 38 to 28.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.

Virginia Tech out-gained Wake Forest 432 to 316 yet lost 23-16.   A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.  Wake Forest has improved their defense.

Houston only out-gained Navy 420 to 372 yet won 37-21.  1-1 turnover ratio.

Penn State out-gained Indiana 488 to 211 yet lost in overtime due to a 2 point conversion 36-35.  Only a 3-2 turnover ratio hurt them but still.

West Virginia out-gained Texas Tech 414 to 348 yet lost 34 to 27.  2-1 turnover ratio hurt.

Temple out-gained Memphis 500 to 489 yards yet lost 41-29.   3-3 – turnover ratio.

Kansas State only outgained Kansas 381 to 320 yet won 55 to 14.  A 2-1 turnover ratio barely made a dent for Kansas and poor efficiency and coaching was the reason.

Air Force out-gained San Jose State 298 to 293 yet lost 17-6.   A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 8

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye weeks:  Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football.  

Key Injuries:

Kenyon Drake RB – Slight ligament tear in Ankle.  Out 3-4 weeks.

O’Dell Beckham WR – Torn ACL and out for the season.

Jeff Wilson RB – high ankle sprain and is week to week.

Deebo Samuel WR – Hamstring injury.

Andy Dalton QB – Concussion and if you had him, I feel sorry for you.

Chris Carson RB – Sprained foot out 1-2 weeks.

Phillip Lindsay RB – Concussion and week to week.

Dede Westbrook WR – Torn ACL.

Coming off of IR: 

Jaelon Raegar WR – Should be ready.

Christian McCaffery RB – Questionable for Thursday night’s game.

Waiver Wire:

Chase Edmonds RB – For the Kenyon Drake injury.

JaMycal Hasty RB – For the Jeff Wilson injury.  Lots of 49ers RBs are injured.

Donavan Peoples-Jones WR – for the Beckham injury.  He got a touchdown last week.

Harrison Bryant TE – Rookie tight end with 2 touchdowns.

Gus Edwards RB – Mark Ingram injury.

Rashard Higgens WR – For the Beckham injury.

Nelson Agholor WR – 9 Targets and over 100 yards and a TD.

Royce Freeman RB – For the Phillip Lindsay Concussion.

Carlos Hyde RB – For the Chris Carson foot injury.

Week 8 Non-starters trending up:

Giovani Bernard RB – Vs the Titans D even if Mixon is back.

Jarvis Landry WR – Against that poor Raiders pass defense.

Allen Lazard WR – Against that terrible Vikings D.

Boston Scott RB vs them Cowboys.

TY Hilton WR – vs a bad Lions secondary.

Jalen Raegar WR – vs the Boys.

All of the Chiefs backups vs the NY Jets.

Cooper Kupp WR – vs the Dolphins fake news.

Chase Claypool WR – vs the Ravens will get some action.

Brandon Aiyuk WR – vs a bad Seahawks D.

Jaelin Raegar WR vs them Cowboys.

Curtis Samuel WR vs the bad Falcons  D.

Busts:

Mark Ingram RB – vs the Steelers even if he plays.

Devonte Freeman RB – vs the Bucs great run D.

D’Andre Swift RB – vs the Colts D.

David Montgomery RB – vs the Saints D.

DK Metcalf WR – vs the 49ers.  They will double him.

Myles Gaskin RB – vs the Rams D.

All Cowboys wide receivers vs the Eagles D.

Joshua Kelly RB vs the Broncos D.

Melvin Gordon vs the Chargers D.

Nasty Sleeper:   TY Hilton.  He is due for a breakout game.  I like him after the bye.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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