Ok, It isn’t hard to see that the Astros were a great team last year and the Dodgers were as well. Both teams lost great pitchers in Cole and Ryu but the Astros lost a little more in their Bullpen. As far as the metrics are concerned, it isn’t hard to see that Walker Buehler for the Dodgers is the superior Pitcher to Houston’s Framber Valdez. Buehler has a lifetime 3.1 FIP while Valdez has a 4.87. Huge difference. From a situational side, it isn’t hard to see that the Dodgers still may be a bit bitter about the fact that Houston was cheating by stealing signs during the 2017 season and most likely their world series match-up. If the Dodgers pitching doesn’t bean too many Houston players today, I think they should come out with the win.
Texas Rangers -134 – 3 star premium shared – Corey Kluber is pitching for Texas and not to long ago has been a 2 time Cy Young winner. He is coming off his fractured forearm this year looking to regain his top of the league status. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has a 4.5 lifetime FIP and is not in the same class as Cory. The Rockies has lost some players from last year and I am not sure that Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado can keep carrying this team. Colorado does not have a good Bullpen and I do not think that they can take this series at Globe Life Park.
Tough loss last night. St. Louis had a 3 run lead cut to 1 twice in the last 3 innings of the game.
Saturday MLB 7/25
Braves at Mets 4:10 est
Fried vs Matz
Pick: Mets +0.5 (-136) First 5 Small
Or
Mets (+102) First 5 Small (Official Pick)
Choose 1 based on your situation. You will win if game is tied after 5 innings if you go with +0.5, it will push if game is tied after 5 innings if you go with money line +102.
Not a great number on the run line here but there is an edge in the numbers for the Mets in this pitching match up. Also, I always wager to win to keep bet amounts consistent. I am not necessarily betting $136 because this run line is -136. I use a set amount based on the grade of the pick, regardless of the line.
-Fried has allowed 8 runs combined in last 2 starts, 10 IP at Mets
-Fried 5.30 ERA last 7 starts
-Fried 4.92 ERA in road games last season
-Right hand hitters hit .281 vs Fried last season
-Matz allowed 2 ER in last 3 starts, 18 innings vs Braves
-Matz 2.31 ERA at home last season
-Matz 3.47 ERA career at Citi Field.
-Mets are 13-4 last 17 home starts by Matz
-Mets have won last 4 home games vs Braves
I initially had Toronto +0.5 First 5 vs Tampa. I like Shoemaker but He’s had a little trouble on the road, not horrible but hittable and is coming back from a long lay off due to injury. Yarbrough is bad indoors and in day games. Gonna pass and see how Shoemaker looks in his return.
Leaving the Reds run line alone as well. -1.5 is -136. I won’t bet run line favorites at -1.5 normally unless it is at least EVEN money. Reds do have good numbers against Nova. I would like to see how Castillo starts as well for the Reds. He did not finish strong for Cincinnati at the end of last season.
Reds, Phillies and Indians might be your best money line teams based on pitching but I don’t necessarily trust Philadelphia.
Just the Mets First 5 play for me today as we see how these teams come out of the gate to start the season.
Mar 11, 2017; Fortaleza, CE, Brazil; Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (red gloves) vs. Gian Villante (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Centro de Formacao Olimpica de Fortaleza. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports
Mauricio Rua to win inside the distance at +135 – 1.5 star premium shared – Rua is a great fighter at 26-11. He has 21 KO/TKOs and only 1 submission and 4 decisions in his wins. Antonio Rogerio is 44 years old and hasn’t went to a decision since 2015. Antonio is 23-9 with 8 KOs, 6 submissions and 11 decisions and won’t have the stamina to last in this fight. Rua is the better striker at landing 3.51 significant strikes per minute to Rua’s 2.74. I like Rua inside the distance at + money to win
Brewers vs Cubs -135 – 2 star premium shared – Its going to be a clear hot day in Chicago and the ball will by flying! I know both teams had some changes this year, but last year the Cubs were better than the Brewers in OPS at .783 to the Crew’s .767. Total runs edges out the Cubs last year at 814 to 769. The Cubs bullpen ERA was also better Yu Darvish for the Cubs is a pro with a lifetime ERA of 3.51 and Corbin Burns has only 2 years in the Majors with an ERA of 6.10. The total runs at 9.5 tell you that there should be some hits this game. I think Yu’s poor preseason was due to him working on a new pitch that he was experimenting with and I expect him to pick up where he left off last year.
The second show of a loaded week! We have a lot to talk about today. Fantasy Football is back and D-Nasty comes back on to break down some position rankings that will help you win your draft and hopefully your league! First, Kiev talks about how great it is to listen to podcasts and why we do it. Then, he gets into the UFC Fight night 174 with some breakdowns plays for your to consider! Next, D-Nasty is back to break down some position rankings. First, we go over Running backs with rankings, busts, and sleepers. We might have some disagreement on some of that! Then, we get into Tight Ends and Defensive rankings breaking down some of the same concepts to help you in your 2020 Fantasy Football Draft!
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Two shows coming this week and we have a whopper today! ESPN’s deputy editor of sports betting David Bearman @DBearmanESPN comes on the show to talk about how sports betting evolved at ESPN as well as the current sports betting landscape in our country. First, Kiev explains decimal odds and why they are much easier to use than American Odds. Then, David talks about how ESPN Chalk evolved and the Daily wager got started. Next, we talk about David’s history in his earlier years of sports betting and how he got where he is today. What got him interested in sports betting? What is his favorite sports to bet on? Then, we elaborate on the fun and popularity of sports betting and why it makes sense to the nation to have it completely legalized throughout all of the States. Finally, we give out a few plays for the current NFL and College football season!
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Feb 29, 2020; Norfolk, Virginia, USA; Joseph Benavidez (red gloves) fights Deiveson Figueiredo (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Chartway Arena. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Deiveson Figueiredo -210 – 3 star premium shared play – This is a direct rematch from February 29th this year when the 18-1 Deiveson took out Joseph Benavidez by KO in the second round. The fight wasn’t even close and now there is more motivation to become the fly weight championship! Dieveson is younger, bigger and lands more significant strikes. He also has a better takedown average at 50% to 29%. I usually don’t love laying juice but I think the fight is still miss-priced at -210. Benavidez is 36 years old and has a lot of wear and tear on his body.
6-1 in the UFC the last 5 days!!! We talk about the 2020 college football Pac 12 conference preview and season win totals! At 1:09.32 Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny is back to discuss UFC Fight Night 173 Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez! First, Kiev recaps the UFC 251. Then, he talks about how college football is gearing towards conference play and why it hurts the smaller schools. Next, Kiev throws out a crazy idea on having a 24 team NCAA football tournament in December. Then, we get into our Pac 12 Conference preview! Who are the best teams and which of them can make a run? Are there any super sleepers? How has the recruiting been over the past 3-4 years? What is their Net yards per play and returning production? Which teams may have some value when the odds come out? Why are the Washington State Cougars similar to middle aged white cougars that we see at our local taverns? Finally, we get into UFC Fight Night 173 with some plays for you!
Should you need a sports book please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus! Terms, conditions and location apply.
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
After a profitable Belmont Stakes it is now time to try our hand at Keenland for the Blue Grass Stakes. This is a field of top of the line horses minus the Kentucky Derby favorites that we must wait to see until September 5th. The interesting thing about this race is that there is a fantastic filly running in this race as the number 7 horse Swiss Skydiver. She is deserving to be in this field with three Beyer’s figures in the 90s and wins in her last three races that actually made her the favorite in this race. Now what I will say is that she has never run above a grade 2 stakes race and the field that she will be running with today is much harder. Swiss Skydiver is at 3-1 and I really do not like that price on a filly running with the Colts. I will try and fade her but I will not let her completely beat me. Instead, I actually like both the 3 horse Art Collector at 5-1 who won his last 3 races and I like the 10 horse the most in Rushie who has gradually improved his Beyer up to 97 and hasn’t regressed. Rushie, who is a stalker, was boxed in for the Santa Anita and had a bad trip. Once he got in the open he made an impressive charge for third. Here is how I am playing this.
Ticket Total: $152
Keeneland, Jul 11, Race #9
W/P/S – 10 horse to Win and Place at $10 a piece. 10/10/0
