This week Paul looks back on a relatively boring Martinsville race and quickly turns his eyes to Texas for the 400 miler coming up this Sunday. This is the second race of the round of 8 and we are getting one more race closer to the end of the MENCS season. Paul tells us who is hot and who to stay away from with a surprise along with this weeks podcast free pick.
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SMU vs Houston – Houston outgained SMU by 135 yards yet lost by 3. 3-1 turnover ratio hurt. Keep in mind that Houston had a 95 yard TD late in the 4th quarter.
Miami vs Pittsburgh – Pitt outgained Miami by 114 yards yet lost by 4 – 3-1 turnover ratio. Pitt pulled a Miami.
Oklahoma vs Kansas State – Oklahoma outgained K-State by 71 yards and most of it was in the 4th quarter. 2-0 turnover ratio helped K-State here. Huge win
Illinois vs Purdue – Yards were about even yet illinois won by 18 – only a 2-0 turnover ratio.
Auburn vs LSU – The officials helped Auburn get down from 10 to 3 there but no changes in the Power Ratings in my opinion, LSU outgained them by 200 yards tho.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M – Mississippi State was only outgained by 10 years yet lost by 19 – 3-0 turnover ratio
San Jose State vs Army – Army outgained San Jose State by 27 yards and lost by 5
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State – Iowa State outgained Oklahoma State by 66 yards yet lost by 7 due to a 3-1 turnover ratio.
Indiana vs Nebraska – Nebraska outgained Indiana by 59 yards yet lost by 7 – Typical Nebraska
Arizona vs Stanford – Arizona outgained Stanford by 23 yards yet lost by 10 – 2-0 turnover ratio. Typical Arizona
Memphis vs Tulsa – Tulsa outgained Memphis by 84 yards yet lost by 1 point missing the extra point
ASU vs UCLA – UCLA only outgained ASU by 10 yards yet won by 10. They also had more turnovers
10-11 in College Football and 6-5 in the NFL last week. First, Kiev talks about his top teams and a top 2 future draft pick in College Football. Next we do a College and NFL recap of last week. Then, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Next, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 10. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 10! D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 9. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 9.
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I am going to take the Eagles. Hard to imagine them going to 3-5 and really hard to imagine the Bills at 6-1 with Josh Allen at QB.
The Dolphins out gained the Bills last week. Buffalo could only win that game by 10 in Buffalo. The Bills have unimpressive 1 pt and 4 pt wins over the Jets and Bengals. They failed to cover at home vs Miami and the Bengals.
Meanwhile the Eagles are coming off of 2 disappointing road losses, albeit, to the Vikings and Cowboys who will likely be in contention at the end of the season. The Eagles had 7 turnovers between those 2 losses and had 400 total yards against the Vikings defense at Minnesota.
Philly isn’t that far removed from a dominant home win over the Jets and going into Green Bay to hand the Packers their only loss so far.
Despite the Eagles woes on defense, it stems from their pass d, as their run defense is #6 in the league. The Bills only out gained the Giants by 18 yds with Eli still in at QB. I don’t see Buffalo dominating with their offense. Their defense is good, no doubt but it really has not been tested.
Supposed to be a lot of wind here so expecting a lower scoring game that should allow the Eagles to keep it close which I think they would anyway.
Buccaneers at Titans 1 pm
Pick: Tampa +3.5/Very Small (Bought 1 point)
I like Tampa here. Winston is coming off of a horrible outing, in another country vs a pretty good team in Carolina. The Tampa QB threw 5 picks in that game, and the team had 7 turnovers in the game. The narrative has been “Same Ole Winston”. However, prior to that game, Winston had been improving. Prior to the Carolina game, since Wk 1, Winston had a 10/2 TD/INT ratio. Tampa had only 2 turnovers in the previous 4 games. Tampa still out gained Carolina by over 100 yards in that loss.
With all of those turnovers, Tampa is only -2 on the season in turnover margin
The Bucs have a good coach and are a very good offensive team, #4 in scoring offense. They are only 3 games removed from putting up 55 points in a win at the Rams. Tampa also quietly has the #1 rush defense in the league. They have allowed over 100 yd rushing only once, 112 at the Saints 2 games ago.
The Titans are not going to be rescued by Tannehill at QB. He already has as many INTs as Mariota had (2). They are better at running the ball but still only gaining 3.1 ypc over the last 3 games. The Titans were shutout at Denver and have a home loss to the Bills by 7 and lost by 13 to a very average Jacksonville team at Jacksonville.
This will be the most explosive team the Titans have faced. Turnovers by Tampa are a concern but the Titans D have not had more than 1 takeaway in any of their last 4 games. 1 in each.
Also, Tennessee is last in the league in sacks allowed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa come away with a win in this one.
Bengals vs Rams 1 pm
Pick: Rams -10/Small (Bought 1 point)
Bengals are giving up over 5 ypc this season. They are last in the league in run defense. This should be a good chance to see if Todd Gurley can get it going again and if he can, the passing game should open up and allow the Rams to have a big game offensively.
Cincinnati’s offense has 2 or more turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. Their defense has just 1 takeaway in their last 3 games. The Bengals are -9 in turnover margin for the season. They are also #27 in sacks allowed. Cincinnati is gaining only 2.9 ypc this season while the Rams allow 3.4. Dalton is likely going to have to throw a lot, probably under pressure and the Rams have Ramsey now at CB to help out.
Ok, so let me ask you what this game would be if Mahomes was playing. It would be Kansas City -5. So basically the line move is saying that Mahomes is worth 9.5 – 10 points. I have to disagree with that. Andy Reid is an offensive genius and he can make players like Alex Smith and Kevin Kolb look like top guys. I think the step down to Matt Moore is more of a 3.5 to 4 point downgrade initially. We have to remember that the Packers are still -.1 net yards per play and they will not be in the lovely confines of Lambeau field here. With Mahomes the Chiefs are a +1.2 yard per play and I think the downgrade shouldn’t be a huge issue in this situation.
Kansas City +4.5 – 2 star premium shared
LA Chargers vs Chicago -4 O/U 40.5
Ok, this is ugly. Very ugly but I have to do this. The Chargers are in a bad situation here with their second straight road game going in against a very pissed of Bears team. We all know that Mitch Trubisky has been terrible but at least he has faced some top defenses. The Chargers are a 0 in net yards per play and at least the Bears are a +.5. The Chargers have now lost another starting offensive lineman in guard Forrest Lamp and are plagued with a plethora of guys that are questionable. I honestly think that Anthony Lynn has lost this team this year. The book on beating this team is taking away 3 players. Hunter Henry, the pass catching running backs weather it be Gordon or Eckler, and safety over the top of Keenan Allen if he even plays. The Bears D line should have a field day getting to Rivers as it is. This is a game that Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky needs to shut up the critics Power ratings have this game by -5 but the situation says to play the -4.
Chicago -4 – 2.5 star premium play
Tampa Bay vs Tennessee -2.5 O/U 45.5
I really hate betting on Jameis Winston but I have to take this game for many of the same reasons I took them against the Rams. Tampa is coming off of a bye week after that bad game in London and has had some extra rest to face a terrible offense and a questionable defense. Now I know that Tampa has the worst pass defense in the league but at last they played the toughest schedule up to this point. The Titans schedule ranks 24th so the do not get any love there. Tennessee is now all high and mighty after beating a banged up Chargers team with a switch at quarterback to Ryan Tannahill. Let’s be honest guys, going from Mariotta to Tannahill is like upgrading your transportation from the bus to the subway.
This one is simple for me. Tulane is in a good spot here losing to an angry Memphis team. Now Navy is the best triple option team in football but Tulane has proven they can stop it by beating Army this year by 9 points and that was at Army. Tulane has a very good offense at 6.7 yards per play and only allowing 5.2 on defense certainly helps. Navy has a good offense to at 6.4 yards per play and a solid defense only allowing 4.6 but they haven’t played a ranked team and their toughest game was vs Memphis where they also lost by double digits. Tulane is in a get up spot here after losing to Memphis where they did not get beat on the ground. It was turnovers and in the air. Navy can’t throw the ball well and I love the Green Wave to cover and also get the W.
Tulane +3.5 – 3 star premium shared and sprinkle
Indiana vs Nebraska +1 O/U 51.5
This is a low total for looking at how Nebraska plays this game. Scott Frost likes to play a fast pace and their defense hasn’t showed much when they have played teams with a pulse. Indiana has quietly been showing some serious offense this year averaging 33 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. The only game they didn’t score 30 was against Ohio State and that is quite understandable. The reason this total is so low is the injuries at QB to Michael Penix from Indiana and Taylor Martinez for Nebraska. I think Martinez plays because he had a chance to play 2 weeks ago against Minnesota and now the Huskers got a bye week to add some rest. Michael Penix is good but even if he doesn’t play, Peyton Ramsey has all the experience in the world to score some points against a bad defense. I like the over a lot here.
Over 51.5 – 3 star premium shared play
Troy vs Georgia State -1 O/U 67
This one is pretty simple to me. Both teams have bad defenses with Troy allowing 5.9 yards per play and Georgia State allowing 6.6. Neither team has even played a Ranked team this year yet those numbers are pretty staggering. Another thing to look at is that both of these teams average 35 points per game on offense and 5.9 yards per play. This game is important in the Sun belt for both of these teams so they both will be motivated here. Looking at Pace you can also slot these teams in the top 10 playing at a pace of over 80 plays per game. The fact that this game is in a dome spells lots of yards and lots of offense. I like the over in this game and you should get it early.
Over 67 – 2 star premium shared
Troy vs Georgia State over 67 – 3 star premium shared
Pick: Memphis -9.5/-120 (bought 1 point form -10.5)/Small
Bought 1 point to get it the spread under 10. I don’t like taking road favorites at this big of a line but Memphis is really rolling. They had a hiccup at Temple, if you can call it that as Temple is good. Memphis lost that 30-28 and then bounced back at home to blow out Tulane 47-17.
Memphis has a distinct advantage on offense. They are #24 in total offense, #14 in scoring offense while Tulsa is #90 in total offense and #107 in scoring. Tulsa may come out stingy on defense but they don’t have enough on offense and I think Memphis eventually can pull away with their offensive ability.
I like Louisville in this spot. UVA coming off of a blowout win at home against Duke. A very misleading score of 48-14. Duke had 5 turnovers, 3 of those lost fumbles while putting together drives. UVA only outgained Duke by 57 and only outrushed them by 22 and Duke is not a really good run team outside of their dual threat QB. Louisville will bring more of a threat on the ground with the #22 run attack. UVA got out rushed by 174 at Notre Dame. They were out gained at home by ODU by 26.
Louisville is not a good defensive team but Virginia is not a good offensive team. I hear a lot about how good UVA QB Perkins is. He completed 50 % of his passes and had zero TD passes out of those 48 points that UVA scored vs Duke. He has an 8/7 TD/INT ratio on the season. UVA does not run the ball well. Taulapapa leads the team in rushing with 287 yds in 7 games. Louisville struggles vs teams that can run the ball. They are not good vs pass either but running teams kill them. Virginia doesn’t do either very well.
Louisville has the #27 offense, Virginia is prone to turn the ball over. UVA is 1-3-1 ATS on the road. Louisville has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, the loss being last season when the Cardinals were really down. I like Louisville in this one.
