Virginia vs Miami – Virginia outgained Miami by 53 yards let lost by 8. Bad Red Zone efficiency for Virginia
Memphis vs Temple – Memphis outgained Temple by 36 yards but 4-2 turnover ratio hurt them.
South Carolina vs Georgia – Meant to be? Georgia outgained South Carolina by 171 yards and should have won this game. 30-16 in first downs. 36 to 24min time of possession. the 4-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan – Miami outgained Western Michigan by 55 yards but 4-2 turnover ratio and bad efficiency killed them. Pissed me off!
Oklahoma vs Texas – Oklahoma outgained Texas by 157 yards but 2-0 turnovers let Texas cover the spread.
BYU vs South Florida – BYU outgained South Florida by 134 yards and won the turnover ratio 2-1 yet still lost by 4. Screwed my bet. I should have won the -6 based om those stats. Terrible
Cincinnati vs Houston – Houston outgained Cinci by 30 yet lost by 15 due to a 5-1 turnover ratio. Brutal
Middle Tennessee vs Florida Atlantic – Middle Tennessee outgained FAU by 95 yards yet lost by 15 a 3-0 turnover ratio
Louisville vs Wake Forest – Wake Forest outgained Louisville by 148 yards and only a 3-2 turnover ratio yet lost by 3.
Penn State vs Iowa – Iowa Outgained Penn State by 62 yards yet lost by 5. 2-0 turnover ratio did them in and bad red zone efficiency. Missed FG as well
Overall went 1 and 2 last week and because of that ended up a few total units down. Glad I followed my own advice and wagered small. At least we left Dega just a little down, unlike half the field with tore up race cars.
Brad Keselowski -115 vs Kyle Larson -115
I like this one for a few reasons. Brad has a win 2 top 5s and 3 top 10s in his last 5 Kansas races. During that same span Larson has 2 top 5s and 4 top 10s. Brads average finish is 7.2 while Larsons is 12.00. That includes a 39th place finish. However, in those last 5 Brad would have beaten Larson 4 out of 5 times in a head to head match up. Keselowski is still fighting for a place in the round of 8 while Larson has his ticket punched. I am taking Keselowski in a 15 unit wager.
Aric Almirola -115 vs Daniel Suarez -115
This match up involves a couple of teammates who are headed in different directions I am afraid. I have been fading Suarez these last couple months and for good reason. I think Custer is going cup racing in 2020 and its either going to be the 14 or the 41 and I just read where the 14 has a tentative deal in place so the 41 might be it. However let’s get back to this match up. In the last 5 double A has an average of 15.6 while Suarez has 21.8. Double A would have beat Suarez 4 out of those 5 times and I am going to go with 5 out of 6 in a 20 unit wager on AA!
One more intriguing matchup is the Keselowski -115 vs Logano -115. Logano has an average of 15.6 in his last 5 and Keselowski has beat him 4 out of the last 5 as well. Logano seems to struggle at Kansas while BK doesn’t. Just throwing this out there. I will probably put a small wager of 5 units here as well.
Keep checking back with me on twitter to see the latest on these matchups as well as possibilities of additional info and picks.Don’t forget to check out theoddsbreakers latest podcast Playing The Odds Nascar style, for some history, track facts, and trends and an additional pick! If you like what you hear shoot me a message on twitter @NASCARstyleodds. Until next week, keep researching, keep reading, and keep winning.
8-8 in College Football and 5-3-1 in the NFL on Sunday. We first start by recapping NFL week 6. Kiev give’s you his MVP of the league! Then, we get into College Football week 7 and discuss where Wisconsin lies in the top 10! Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 8. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 8! D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 7. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 7.
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Huge win for the Packers at Dallas last week! This was just another Jason Garrett coaching deficiency going against a young Matt Lefleur. The Packers ran all over this team which made them able to set up play-action and put the Cowboys in desperation pass mode. Dak Prescott’s 3 picks didn’t really help either. This will be harder to accomplish against a rested Lions team coming off the bye. Detroit has played a very challenging schedule vs Kansas City, the Chargers and the Eagles. They are battle tested and sitting nicely to play their first divisional game. The biggest thing here for me is that Detroit ranks above Green Bay in net yards per play by .4. The Lions could easily be 4-0 this year. This game should be a 3 point spread because of the rested Lions team.
Detroit +4.5
Atlanta vs Arizona +2.5 O/U 51.5
This game is all about the spot here. Arizona just got their first win in Cincinnati and now it is time to come back to earth. Atlanta has had a brutal 1-4 start and need to get a W to get back into this or Dan Quinn will be history. I know that Atlanta is a bit beat up on defense and all but it isn’t as bad as Arizona’s injury report. Matt Ryan is a bad road QB but he is good in a dome and playing at State Farm Stadium will help him feel like he is right at home. Atlanta has a net .5 yards per play difference while playing the 6th hardest schedule in football. The Cardinals schedule ranks 24th. I like the spot here and take the dirty birds -2.5
Last week was actually a pretty good week, despite our results. I had a lot of plays in mind and the ones I didn’t release but still wagered on hit, including some totals that I was pretty confident in. The plays I released, though, got a little rough. The Bears and the Browns both let us down, but we live, we learn, and we grow! This week, the slate is pretty tough. I’ve found two decent spots, though.
We’re going back to the Browns on this one. Seattle comes in at 4-1, trailing the Niners by half a game for the NFC West. (Side note: boy did we miss on the Niners last week). Seattle is actually a very good road team, having won ATS in five of their last six away from Seattle. Four of the last five have gone over. I think this is actually a sneaky shootout potential game. Look for Baker to get right here. Seattle has allowed the fifth most passing yards in the league and only three picks. The Browns have the fourth worst rushing defense, allowing an average of 150.8 rushing yards per game. Given that Seattle likes to run, and the Browns suck at stopping the run, I believe the Seahawks ride Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to an early lead, causing Baker to have to throw repeatedly. Pete Carroll is not one to take his foot off the gas, so take Seattle and take the over.
The Titans travel to Mile High to take on the Broncos in a defensive battle. Both defenses are good, tough, bruising D’s and both offenses are pretty horrid. The O/U at 40.5 makes sense here. It’s scary to take an under on a total that low, but that’s what I thought last week with the Bills/Titans O/U. I think the under hits for a couple reasons. First, both teams consistently go under. The Titans have gone under in four in a row, four of the first five games, with the total going no more than 36 in that span. The Broncos have indeed gone over in two of their last three, but the Packers game went over by 1.5, so it was pretty close. Additionally, before that the Broncos had ELEVEN regular season games in a row go under. Yep. From October 28, 2018 until September 22, 2019, all the Broncos games went under. The Broncos as an organization just tend to go under. The under is 20-9-1 in the last 30 Broncos’ regular season games. Take the under.
DEN Broncos/TEN Titans under 40.5, (-110), 2u
Fade of the week:
Dallas, -8 AND Minnesota, -3 – This is a two-for. The Cowboys are overrated, they’re playing on the road, and against a Jets team that just got back their starting QB. Not saying the ‘Boys lose but wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles have one of the most elite run defenses and the Vikings have trouble winning games they’re supposed to throw in.
Parlay of the week:
CAR/TB OVER 47.5, SEA ML, HOU ML, WAS ML, LAR ML, DEN ML, GB ML (+5959)
This Sunday I’ll be at the TV all day so follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays can, and will be, released!
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger (11) celebrates the end of the first quarter against Oklahoma State during an NCAA college football game at Royal-Memorial Stadium, Saturday, Sept. 21, 2019. [Stephen Spillman for Statesman]
Florida Vs LSU -13 O/U 54.5
LSU has been a points scoring team this year averaging 54 a game themselves. Florida has been winning off of pure defense but neither team has really been challenged yet. Since Joe Brady arrived at LSU, this team has been playing at a wicked pace of 78 plays per game and that doesnt factor in some of the 4th quarters that they just were able to run the clock out. Florida on the other hand has played slowly but will have to pick up the pace in order to compete with LSU. LSU leads the nation in points per game as we pointed out at 54 and they are 5th in yards per play at 7.7. Florida averages 32 points per game and 6.6 yards per play themselves and they have a better QB now with Kyle Trask at the helm. LSU also doesn’t have a great defense ranking 76th in efficiency and allowing 20 points per game to an easy schedule. I see some points being scored this game and will take the over 54.5
Over 54.5 – 2 star premium shared
Penn State vs Iowa +4.5 O/U 42.5
Here is the game that should prove me right or wrong about Penn State. I definitely had to upgrade them during the season and especially after that Maryland game but they still haven’t played anyone. Their only road game was Maryland and now they have to face a pissed off Iowa team with a great D. Iowa ranks 30th in defensive yards per play at 4.8 and 3rd in points allowed at 8.8. They have played teams such as Michigan and Iowa State. The best team that Penn State has played was Pittsburgh and they were outgained and should have lost if it wasn’t for a coaching error on the other side. Penn State’s D ranks very high even though they haven’t played anybody but this is the spot they get tested. Iowa needs this game bad since Wisconsin beat Michigan. The low total screams to take the points. Iowa is over 70% ATS as a home dog since 2001. My Power ratings have Iowa -1. Take the home dog.
Iowa +4.5 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle ML
Oklahoma vs Texas +11 O/U 75
Another shootout here. Texas is desperate to run the table in hopes to regain their playoff hopes. Oklahoma is on a revenge tour with Jalen Hurts and has done well. While this total is very high it also indicates that Texas will score here. Oklahoma hasn’t played a top 60 team in defensive efficiency. They also only ranks 64th in opponent yards per play at 5.5. They have’t played a top 40 team in total efficiency either. The Longhorns haven’t played a very hard schedule either but at least they went toe to toe with LSU and played Oklahoma State and at West Virginia. Texas always plays well against Oklahoma and Tom Herman is 8-3-1 as a dog.
We have a quick podcast for you for this weekend’s games. Kiev is still on vacation but finds some time to give out his College and NFL plays. We also go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.
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Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
