We have a fantastic but fast show for you today! Kiev is on vacation in San Diego but still found some time to find everyone some value this week. We first start with a quick recap. Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 7. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 7! D-Nasty sent us a quick write-up for fantasy. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 6.
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Well the Titans sure looked good in Atlanta but that was pretty much due to one guy named AJ Brown. I think the Bills have proved enough this year with that monster defense. They held Brady to one of his all time low QB ratings last game at 19.5. Buffalo ranks 2nd in defensive yards per game at 28 and 5th in points per game at 15.8. They actually also have a decent offense ranking 9th in yards per game while Tennessee ranks 25th. The Bills also rank higher in Overall efficiency DVOA at 9th to Tennessee’s 13th. The Titans need to establish the run to open up the passing game because Mariota just isn’t top tier talent. Buffalo ranks 7th against the run. I think even with Matt Barkley the Bills have a chance to win this one outright. Taking Buffalo with the points and I like it down to 1.5
Buffalo +3 – 2 star premium shared
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh -4 O/U 44
What is better in the gambling world than a home dog? A home dog over 3 points in the NFL? Maybe. Baltimore was a lot of smoke and mirrors when they started out the season against Miami, Arizona and the Kansas City defense. Now teams have film on Lamar and these games should titan up a little. For this game the stats will completely go against me here because of 1 huge discrepancy. That is the strength of schedule. On Sagarin Baltimore ranks 29th in that and Pittsburgh ranks 5th. As a matter of fact, Sagarin has Pittsburgh power rated ahead of Baltimore! Now I am not going to go that far but I do have this game as a Pickem due to Pitts Home field in my power ratings. It looks to me that Mason Rudolf has been coming along nicely being 24-28 with 2 TDs. I have to go with the points here for the home doggy dog in a rivalry and like it anywhere above 2.
Pittsburgh +4 – 2 stars premium shared and sprinkle
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41
Two years ago I would be betting the under here but my how things have changed. This is a bold one but I like these 2 young QBs a lot and I think they will be in a little bit of a shootout here. Kyle Allen has completed over 70% of his passes the last 2 games and Garner Minshew and his mustache has put up some points. I also like the fact that Jalen Ramsey is not playing these games. Jacksonville’s D is good but not great as it was a few years ago. Carolina’s D looks good only because they played an easier schedule ranking 20th and they still give up 20 points per game. This total is too low here for these 2 young gun-slingers in this day and age of the NFL.
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41 – 3 star premium shared
Teaser: Going to tease the Giants to +11.5 and the Falcons to +11 – 2 star
I took a much-needed break to settle into the new apartment, and now we’re back with some of my favorite action in week five! It’s hard to believe that as of Monday night we are ¼ of the way through the fantasy season and just about that much through the regular season. We spend so many months waiting and waiting, and then it all goes so quickly!
We nailed the Cardinals bet last article in Week two, and we’re looking to go two for two here. The Cardinals are decent on the road, having covered in three of their last four. Let’s also not forgot that since their week one performance the Bengals have been dreadful. They’re getting outscored by 17 ppg since week one. And I believe that week one performance was more of a reflection on issues in Seattle that have gone unnoticed rather than the Bengals competing with Russell Wilson. The Bengals’ offensive line is horrid, and they just lost by 24 to a Steelers team led by Mason Rudolph. We saw the Cardinals put up a decent fight against the Ravens in Baltimore, so look for them to outright win here in Cincy. Additionally, both defenses are bad. How bad? The total is at 47. Cincinnati gives up 27.5 points per game this season while Arizona gives up 28.75 points per game this year. If they even hit their averages they’ll go over. Remember when the Bengals gave up 41 to Jimmy G and the Cardinals gave up 38 to Kyle Allen? Arizona can’t seem to stop anyone, especially if you play tight end. The over has hit in five of the last six at home in Cincy. Pound it.
ARI Cardinals ML, (+145), 2u
ARI Cardinals/Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47, (-110), 3u
Chicago Bears “@” Oakland Raiders – Sunday, 10/06/2019, 10 AM Pacific (in London)
The Raiders draw the short end of the stick, using a “home” game across the pond in London. London is full of Bears fans, so I expect them to show up for Chicago. Trubisky is out with a dislocated shoulder, but Chase Daniel is no Blake Bortles. He posted a QBR of 101.4 against a very tough Vikings defense – a passing defense ranked 10th in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed. The Raiders looked mighty impressive in the early going against the Colts, but of their four TDs last week, one was scored on defense and one was scored on a 60-yard run with a hole bigger than a dancing elephant. You won’t find that with Chicago. The Bears have the 4th best rushing defense in the league. You saw it last week with the Vikes. They stopped arguably the hottest runner in the NFL right now in Dalvin Cook and made Kirk Cousins beat them through the air (hint: he didn’t). Don’t tell me Derek Carr is better than Cousins. In London games, the Raiders are 1-3 all-time only covering in their win. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC West. All signs point towards Chi-town. Oh yeah, the Bears are 7-1 to the under in their last eight regular season games to boot.
CHI Bears -5.5, (-110), 3u
CHI Bears/OAK Raiders UNDER 40.5, (-110), 2u
OAK Raiders TT UNDER 17, (-115), 1u
Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers – Monday, 10/07/2019, 5:15 PM Pacific
This is a really interesting spot to me. You have a 3-0 San Francisco team that joins the Chiefs and the Patriots as the last undefeated teams in the league. That’s right, you probably knew already but we’re grouping Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers with Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and those two AFC powers. One look at the Niners’ first three weeks should tell you a lot; they beat the Bengals, the Steelers, and the Bucs. The only team worth a damn there is Tampa, and in week one they clearly were still learning Bruce Arians’ system. Meanwhile, the Browns took a couple weeks but looked damn impressive against the Ravens last week, knocking me out of my survivor pool in the process. Yet they travel to NorCal as 3.5-point dogs? This implies that the game would be a pick ‘em on a neutral site. Not a chance. It takes offenses some time to gel (see the Bucs/Rams game last week for proof), and the Browns are gellin’ like a felon. They’re gellin’ harder than Dr. Scholes. Look for OBJ to get going in this one. Every year in the NHL you can pound against teams that are coming back after their week off. Do you know why? It’s because athletes thrive on consistency. They want a routine. They want to play games, have practices, meals, and workouts at the same times on the same days. When you get extra time off, too much time off, it throws you off your routine. We print money all around the all-star break in the NHL every year so try to follow those trends in the NFL too. SF is coming off a bye all the way into a Monday night game. They will have had 15 days off. Your proof lies in the fact that the Niners have failed to cover in their last SEVEN games after a bye for the last seven years. They’re actually 2-12-1 ATS after a bye since 2004. I love this bet. If I could only make one this week, it would be the Browns ATS.
CLE Browns +3.5, (-110), 3u
CLE Browns ML, (+165), 2u
CLE Browns TT OVER 21.5, (+100), 1u
Fade of the week:
Kansas City, -12.5 – Something feels different about both the Chiefs and the Colts. Everyone expected the Colts to be terrible without Luck, but they’re not. Everyone expected the Chiefs to prove the Lions were a fluke, but they didn’t. Proceed with caution.
Parlay of the week:
BAL ML, CHI ML, NYG/MIN OVER 43.5, TB ML, ATL/HOU OVER 49, LAC ML, CLE ML (+6800)
Follow me on Twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays get released every so often – it just depends on what my Sundays look like! Have fun watching, good vibes for your fantasy teams, and I’ll be back next week.
Lots of people have Texas in a look ahead spot to Oklahoma but do you know why it’s not? Because the loss to LSU is still like a fresh wound and they want to show that they can be a championship contender. As we already know, West Virginia has a new coach and new team that only returned 7 starters last year. They haven’t played a ranked team yet they are currently at -.5 yards per play. Texas has played 2 ranked teams including LSU and is a positive .66 yards per play. I don’t love the Longhorn’s defense this year but it should be enough to stop a bad offense and the second worst team in the big 12 this year.
Texas – 10 – 2 star premium shared
Troy vs Missouri -26 O/U 67
What do these two teams have in common? Speed baby speed! Missouri is the fasted paced team at 87 plays per game while troy ranks 5th at 84. What else do these teams have in common? They score lots of points and get yards. Troy averaged 40 points per game at 508 yards while Missouri averages 38 points per game and 447 yards per game. Both teams are also pretty efficient on offense at 13 yards per point. I do not think their defenses are that good. Troy allows 30 points per game in a bad conference and Missouri’s 15 PPG numbers are skewed due to playing against injuries and some terrible teams. I have this game going all the way to 83.
Over 67 – 3 star premium shared
Iowa vs Michigan -3.5 O/U 48 – I have this game to 43. The last game was 14-13. Iowa has the 3rd most efficient defense in the league allowing a crazy 29 yards per point . I have to think that the Michigan D steps up this game at home against Iowa’s sometimes predictable offense. Iowa’s D has only allowed 8.5 points per game and Michigan’s has allowed 19 due to the Wisconsin debacle. When Michigan stepped up in class to Wisconsin, they scored 14 points and Iowa against Iowa State scored 18. Both QBs Patterson and Stanley will take care of the ball in this important game. Iowa’s schedule has been easy minus the Iowa State game. I do have Iowa actually keeping it close and lean them +3.5 points.
Under 48 – 2 star premium shared
Quick hitter: Cincinnati +4 or way better. Remember the UCF vs Pitt game? Well Cinci may be better than Pitt and they are in a good revenge spot here. I have this game in my power ratings at Pickem in Cincinnati so this will be a small ML play as well.
41-34-4 in College up 14 units and 20-18-1 in the NFL up 6 units. We have a fantastic show for you today! First, Kiev goes through the NFL week 5 Card and gives out some plays. Kiev also gives his negative thoughts about the Cardinals vs Bengals game. Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards from magorwager.com comes on to break down College Football Week 6! Both Kiev and Brian release their top 10 power ratings. Next, we talk about some huge games and give out some plays. Then, Kiev gives out a few of his own Free Plays. Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.
Michigan State vs Ohio State – UCF vs Cincinatti – Iowa vs Michigan and more!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
Buffalo vs Miami OH – Buffalo out-gained Miami Ohio by 123 yards and lost by 14 because of 4-0 turnover ratio
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan – Central outgained Western by 7 yards but lost by 16. a 3-1 turnover ratio.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin – Northwestern out-gained Wisconsin by 12 yards yet lost by 9 but Wisco had less possessions and was in prevent the whole time. Future value is on Wisconsin most likely here. Wisco lost an onside kick and both teams had a few turnovers.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas – Arkansas out-gained A&M by 55 yards, won the turnover battle and lost the game by 4.
Wake Forest vs Boston College – Wake Forest was out-gained by 93 yards yet won by 3 – 3-1 turnover ratio
Delaware vs Pitt – Pitt out-gained Delaware 443-170 yet only won by 3
Virginia vs Notre Dame – Virginia out-gained Notre Dame by 16 yards yet lost by 15. 4-1 turnover ration and 4 rushing yards for the Cavaliers
Stanford vs Oregon State – Oregon State out-gained Stanford by 148 yards yet lost by 3 points.
Houston vs North Texas – North Texas out-gained Houston by 93 yards with 0 turnovers and lost by 21 points
10-10-2 in College Football and 5-5-1 in the NFL last week while 0-2 in teasers. Our first losing week in football this year. We first start by recapping NFL week 4 and College Football week 5! Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 6. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 6! D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 5. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 5.
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
I have the Raiders as the second worst defense in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins. Now they lost Marquell Lee their starting middle linebacker to add to losing Jonathan Abram last week. Indianapolis is a little banged up as well but I think that they still tower over what the Raiders have for talent, even with a few back-ups. Handicappers and sportsbooks are still to low on the Colts thinking that the stop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is 6 points. Well I think it is more like 3 or 4. I have the colts by 8.75 in this spot. The Raiders are in serious need of better skill positions on offense. I also am going to make a bold statement here and say that I think even though it’s his second year, Jon Gruden has been out of the NFL too long and things have changed too much for him. Frank Reich is the better coach here.
Indianapolis -6.5 – 2 star play
Tampa Bay vs LA Rams +10
The Rams are a good/great team as we can see here but this isn’t a great spot for them at all. One thing we know about the Tampa D is that their weakness is against the pass as we saw against the Giants but is that what the Rams try to do? The Rams like to play misdirection football and set up the play action through running the ball. They ranked top 5 in rushing attempts in 2018. Tampas run defense is great with Sue and Vita Vea leading that defensive line that currently ranks number 1 in stuff rate and 3 in adjusted line yards. I see the Rams trying to get through this game quickly by running the ball and not running up the score because this is one of those look ahead spots to Thursday vs a huge division foe Seattle. We know that Jamis Winston throws picks but I really like the QB whisperer Bruce Ahiens helping him through and if any team is built for a garbage touchdown to cover the spread it is guys like Winston to Evans or Goddard or even OJ Howard. We also have to remember that the Rams do not have a great home field advantage. This is LA BABY. Due to the spot and the situation i really like Tampa bay here and a small ML play isn’t a bad idea either.
Tampa Bay +10 – 3 star premium play
Dallas vs New Orleans +2.5
My play here doesn’t completely agree with my power ratings, but I am going to bet against the over-reaction to last week here. Dallas has had an easier schedule but they are also very healthy here. Dallas is the second most explosive team in football right now on offense and they have the tools to wear down the Saints in my opinion. The Saints showed that they have a vulnerable defense. They rank 30th in yards per play and I know that they played a very hard schedule but what stuck out to me is that they beat Seattle last week while being out-gained by 250 yards. This is very significant. Dallas beat this Saints team with Breese in last year and I think they have their number. The Teddy Bridgewater situation still hasn’t shown its true colors here and I like the number under 3.
Dallas -2.5 – 2 Star Premium Shared
Quick Hitter: Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh over 43.5 – 2 star premium shared – You have 2 desperate teams here and I do not either defense both ranking in the bottom 25% of all teams. I think we will see some points here.
