Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We are back this week to discuss more NFL Season win totals! Before we do that Kiev briefly gets into the NHL and the NBA championship series and why teams tend to choke when they can put it all away at home. We then touch on some college football conference futures that was released by 5dimes. Next Kiev discusses the AFC North season win totals and then finally gets into the AFC West.
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If you were paying attention to these finals then you have noticed 3 huge things. First is that Toronto has been playing their best basketball all year. Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry has been leading this team with confidence and it has been flowing through the rest of the players. Van Vleet has stepped his game up and Siakum has been a beast down low. Second is that the Warriors are decimated with injuries. Durant is trying to be healthy and he came to practice on Sunday which I actually think helped this line come down to -1.5, but afterwords, Durant had some ice on his Achilles and his Calf. Even if KD comes back, he will be quite rusty. Third, the Warriors heads are not in the game. It looks like Steph has a lot of plans this off-season including his new show Stephen vs The Game as well as other ventures. I don’t think that Kawhi seems to care about anything right now other than winning. I am thinking that the Raptors also saw St Lewis lose in their game 5 and now have to travel back to Boston. This situation and this might help motivate Toronto to finish the job at home. It is time Canada wins their first NBA Championship and it will be tonight.
Raptors 1st half -1 – 2 stars
Raptors full game -1.5 – 1 star
Kyle Hendrick’s is pitching and has been on fire lately. He is boasting a 3.16 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The wind is blowing in this game. Adam Wainwright seems to step up in big times and the Cardinals are facing a sweep here. Last game Adam Wainwright shut these cubs out. I expect a low scoring game here.
We finally are at the end of the triple crown and I have to ask myself, what have we learned? What I have learned is if you keep going with the general perception on things, not only will you cash small tickets, you will also miss out on big opportunities. The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness this year had some very big long shots finish 1st and/or 2nd place cashing some monster size tickets for a very select few. Now we are at the Belmont here AKA Big Sandy and what is everyone talking about???? The 2 favorite horses that are not even going off better than 2-1 is what. I also find it very ironic that some of these experts are also talking about how evenly matched these horses are this year. It’s almost like players are contradicting themselves. For me this sets up quite well to play the contrarian here based on what I saw in the Derby, Preakness and prep races juxtaposed with larger odds and bigger purses. I am not saying that War of Will and Tacidus won’t win or place in this race but what I am saying is that they are not worth the bets at these odds. My strategy here is that I am not going to let these two horses beat me BUT what I am going to do is go with Jockey and recency over everything else. My two horses are Bourbon War and Sir Winston. I was on Bourbon war during the Preakness and he kind of got destroyed as we all saw. My excuse for him is that he had blinkers on and is more of a distance horse. His price at 12-1 looks good to me especially with Mike Smith riding him. We have to remember that this race needs a good Jockey and I think there is some good value here. I am taking him in my exotics as well as to place. My other horse is Sir Winston that Marco D’Angelo spoke about on the podcast. This horse just raced at the Peter Pan here at Belmont Park and was flying at the end of the race taking second. If the Peter Pan was a mile and a half rather than a mile and 1/8th, I think he would have won that race. Sir Winston scored a 100 Beyer speed figure in this race and Joel Rosario is riding him over Everfast for a reason. There is a good chance that the #1 horse Joevia sets suicide (fast) fractions in the beginning of this race making it good for the closers. I am going Horizontal to win, place and show for both of these horses. I also do not want to let War of Will and Tacidus beat me as I stated earlier so here are my Belmont Plays for a total of $200
The NFC West has to play the NFC South and the AFC North which isn’t terrible this year although it isn’t great for traveling. Within the division you would think that the 49ers should improve from last year and the Rams should regress a bit. The Seahawks are the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. The Cardinals pushed the reset button and I think they will have a bad start to their season. We should be able to count on the Bengals in the AFC North to have a bad defense again.
LA RAMS – Win total 10.5
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Chicago and Dallas
Key losses: S LaMarcus Joyner, G Rodger Saffold, ILB Mark Barron, DT Ndamukong Suh
Key additions: OLB Clay Matthews, S Eric Weddle, QB Blake Bortles
Whom they drafted: S Taylor Rapp, RB Darrell Henderson, CB David Long, OT Bobby Evans, DT Greg Gaines, OT David Edwards, S Nick Scott, LB Dakota Allen
Summary: Last year this team had 13 wins which was great but their Pythagorean was only around 11.75. The Rams worked on their defensive backs and offensive line this draft. This team was pretty healthy last year compared to years past and you have to dock them a little for that but I do not know what the heck is going on with Todd Gurley and fantasy owners need to be worried. It felt like there was no trust between him and his coach at the end of the season. The Rams got a nice steal in Daryl Henderson from Memphis at RB during the draft who averaged 9 yards per rush at Memphis. I think that LA somewhat addressed the edge rusher with Clay Matthews coming back home which is a good move. Losing LeMarcus Joyner was hard but they did pick up Eric Weddle. Losing Suh may prove detrimental against the run. The Rams may have improved the interior offensive line and I really like that. Can teams finally catch on to Sean McVey’s misdirection plays? I have the Rams at 11.65 wins but I am concerned that the 49ers could be a lot better this year so no play and just a lean to the over.
Action – Lean over 10.5
2. Seattle Seahawks – Win Total 8.5
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Minnesota and Philadelphia
Key losses: DE Frank Clark, WR Doug Baldwin, S Earl Thomas, CB Justin Coleman, RB Mike Davis, G J.R. Sweezy, DT Shamar Stephen, QB Brett Hundley, DE Dion Jordan, K Sebastian Janikowski
Key additions: K Jason Myers, G Mike Iupati
Whom they drafted: DE L.J. Collier, S Marquise Blair, WR D.K. Metcalf, OLB Cody Barton, WR Gary Jennings, G Phil Haynes, CB Ugo Amadi, ILB Ben Burr-Kirven, RB Travis Homer, DT Demarcus Christmas, WR John Ursua
Summary: The Seahawks started out the season without Kam Chancellor and then Earl Thomas went out after a few games. You would think that I should give them a game back for these injuries but being that they are no longer on the Seahawks so it is pretty much a wash. This Seattle team overachieved last year and I was quite surprised that they mustered up 10 wins without the legion of boom and a decent offensive line. I think how they performed last year beating expectations was all due to Russel Wilson and that makes me scared to ever bet them under again. The Seabirds have a medium schedule this year. They lost a ton but like i said before, many of those guys didn’t play anyways. I take a game away for losing Clark, Baldwin, Coleman and Dion Jordan but have to give them one back for so many draft picks including the best WR in the draft D.K. Metcalf. I have them at 10.2 wins which being over total of 8.5 says to make that bet, but being that, Seattle had the best turnover margin at +15 last year and has once again totally redone their defense so I think that I have to hold off playing this number. Plus playing at the Eagles for an at large game may be worse than the Cowboys next year. I lean over but not going to take it.
Action – Lean Over 8.5
3. San Francisco 49ers – Total wins 8
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Green Bay and Washington
Key losses: LB Reuben Foster, WR Pierre Garcon, P Bradley Pinion, DT Earl Mitchell, DE/LB Cassius Marsh
Key additions: OLB Kwon Alexander, DE/OLB Dee Ford, RB Telvin Coleman, CB Jason Verrett, CB Robert Alford, ILB David Mayo, WR Jordan Matthews
Whom they drafted: DE Nick Bosa, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Jalen Hurd, P Mitch Wishnowsky, OLB Dre Greenlaw, TE Kaden Smith, OT Justin Skule, CB Tim Harris
Summary: This is pretty much a tale of 2 different teams from last year to this year. in 2018 the 49ers had the 6th hardest schedule and losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo early certainly marked this team for doom. I really like how they finished their season beating the Broncos, the Seahawks and playing the Bears tough while scoring 32 points With Nick Mullens against the Rams. Being that they were decimated by injuries last year we have to give them 2.5 games back over their 4 wins last year which is my highest out of any teams. This 9ers team really didn’t lose much other than Reuben Foster because Pierre Garcon really didn’t play that much. This team had one of the best free agencies picking up guys like LB Kwon Alexander, RB Tevon Coleman, CB Jason Verrett and edge rusher Dee Ford. Their draft started out with GM John Lynch with the no-brainer pick of Nick Bosa, the best overall talent in the draft, giving the 49ers a good edge. He got creative with Samuel and Hurd, and Smith was good value late. I have to give this team 1.5 games for just their free agency and the draft. The only thing this missed out on is Safety and the offensive line. If Richard Sherman has anything left in the tank, this defense could be very fixed up from the last year’s performances. Lastly, I especially like the fact that they really lost the turnover battle at a whopping -25 turnovers. Even the third worst team at turnovers was at -12. If this evens out which it normally does then you can chalk up another win or 2. I have this team around 9.6 wins. The number one question to me is we still do not know a lot about Jimmy Garoppolo.
Action: Lean over
Arizona Cardinals – Win Total 5.5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large games vs Detroit and New York Giants
Key losses: QB Josh Rosen, S Antone Bethea, DE Markus Golden, G Mike Iupati, S Deone Bucannon, WR J.J. Nelson
Key additions: ILB Jordan Hicks, DT Darius Philon, DE Terrell Suggs, OT Marcus Gilbert, G J.R. Sweezy, G Max Garcia, TE Charles Clay, WR Kevin White, QB Brett Hundley, DE Brooks Reed
Whom they drafted: QB Kyler Murray, CB Byron Murphy, WR Andy Isabella, DE Zach Allen, WR Hakeem Butler, WR Keesean Johnson, C Lamont Gaillard, OT Joshua Miles, DE Michael Dogbe, TE Caleb Wilson
Summary: Too bad this Cardinals team can’t play themselves. This division is partially why their schedule is medium-hard again. They should have listened to me when I said not too pick Josh Rosen last year and fix their offensive line which has been the worst in the NFL. What did they decide to do again? Hold my beer. Who is going to block for David Johnson and Kyler Murray???? Now i had Kyler Murray as my 3rd best QB prospect coming out of the draft but this team really missed the boat. Without decent blocking Kyler Murray could be nothing more than a slightly faster version of Tyrod Taylor for all that we know. Getting sacked in 1.5 seconds pretty much every play is no way to live your football life. General Manager Steve Keim tried to fix do some stuff in the off season to fix the line and fill some holes but to me it looks like he just got a bunch of has-beens. Many NFL Analysts think the Cardinals drafted well and if you average everyone’s grades for them, they had the 3rd best draft in the league. Well I think that is more the blind following the blind personally and I do not know why the hell they drafted a receiver like Kirk in the second round last year just to waste 3 more picks on receivers in 2019. The Cardinals were worst against the run allowing 4.9 yards per carry and they didn’t do much to help that this year. This team was actually pretty healthy last year and still only managed 3 wins. They had a medium hard schedule last year and will have the same strength of schedule for 2019. Losing guys like Antone Bethea and Deonne Bucannon won’t bode well for this team but it is hard to punish them for that when there wasn’t many wins to take away. Also, constantly sucking up to another loud mouth diva has-been like Patrick Peterson certainly does not help the locker room especially now that he is suspended 6 games. Maybe Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks can fire this defense back up but these guys have both already won their championships and are in coast mode. This team still needs a better offensive line, younger edge rushers, more linebackers, Safeties, Running Backs and Nose Tackle’s. One good thing that I can say about this team is that I like their new Coach Kliff Kingsbury and Kyle Murray does at least fit his system. I have this team at 3.6 wins.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
The Belmont Stakes has arrived and there is no better person to have on than Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo @MarcoinVegas to help us break it down! Before we get into horse racing action, Kiev discusses a little news updated with the legalization of sports gambling and some NCAA Basketball rule changes. Then Kiev goes into a calculated approach to NFL season projections and win totals for the AFC East. Then Marco comes on to discuss the Belmont Stakes! We first discuss which horses are from the Kentucky Derby and The Preakness Stakes along with the new shooters. Next we discuss post positions of these thoroughbreds and Beyer’s speed figures. Then, we discuss the favorites and the long-shots and find out who we are throwing out this year! Finally talk about ways of attacking this race! Get Marco’s Preakness and Saturday Packages at www.wagertalk.com. To end the show we have Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny to break down some great plays for UFC 238!
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Well if you have been paying attention the first half fading the Warriors have been money over this past month. Since April 18th, Golden State’s opponents are 4-1-1 in the first half while they end up usually losing the game. Now Steph and company at best will be with an injured Clay Thompson aka splash brother number 2 if he even plays at all. When it comes to this Warriors team, it is easy to see that they like to feel out their opponents before their 3rd quarter assault that they put on their opponents. I think the Raptors will start out strong after that poor second half that they had on Sunday. Kawhi is the guy that will help with this first half boost that Toronto will need to try and take back control of this series.
The NFC East: This division plays the NFC North and the AFC East which most likely favors these teams and their schedules. The Patriots are the Patriots but older, the Jets and Bills should be better but the Dolphins should be worse. The Packers, Lions and Vikings all missed the playoffs last year. Gonna be interesting for sure.
Dallas Cowboys – Vegas win total 8.5
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New Orleans and the LA Rams.
Key losses: WR Cole Beasley, DT David Irving, TE Geoff Swaim, LB Damien Wilson
Key additions: WR Randall Cobb, DE Robert Quinn, TE Jason Witten, DT Christian Covington, S George Iloka
Whom they drafted: DT Trysten Hill, G Connor McGovern, RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Weber, DE Jalen Jelks
Summary: Big D really hasn’t lost a lot from their 10 win team last year but I also didn’t really see them gain a lot either. Highlights are Cole Beasley will be replaced by Randall Cobb and Jason Witten is back but pretty old. Dallas did have a fantastic defense last year led by rookie Leighton Vander Esch who proved to be maybe the best or second best linebacker from the 2018 draft with Roquon Smith. The Cowboys suddenly have legitimate weapons around Dak Prescott with Cobb coming and Witten un-retiring to support Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. The Cowboys started late in the draft because of the Amari Cooper trade but they really didn’t fill any gaps in their secondary. The Cowboys kinda ignored their immediate needs at secondary in the draft and started with depth instead. Their schedule isn’t too hard but a lot depends on Dak. This team had only 8.5 Pythagorean win total from last year so we must factor that in. I have this team at 9.55 wins this year but not enough for me to bet the over.
Action: No Play
2. Philadelphia Eagles – Vegas win total 9.5
Schedule – Medium Easy – At large games vs Atlanta and Seattle
Key losses: QB Nick Foles, ILB Jordan Hicks, WR Golden Tate, DE Michael Bennett, WR Mike Wallace, DT Haloti Ngata, WR Jordan Matthews
Key additions: DT Malik Jackson, WR DeSean Jackson, ILB L.J. Fort, DE Vinny Curry, S Andrew Sendejo
Whom they drafted: OT Andre Dillard, RB Miles Sanders, WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, DE Shareef Miller, QB Clayton Thorson
Summary: This sneaky Eagles team had an amazing finish to the season last year to get back into the playoffs. I think this was due to how well Nick Foles plays in the clutch. Now Doug Peterson should know that the pressure is on Carson Wentz and right now he looks fragile. The Eagles Pass defense was terrible last year partially due to bad injuries of Darby and McCloud but hopefully they will be healed and the Sendejo pick up will help this year’s secondary. Let’s face it, losing Haloti Ngata and Jordan Hicks may hurt the run and I do not love their replacements. I also do not think that this team did quite enough on defense in the draft but I do like what they did offensively. The Eagles have a medium easy schedule in my opinion and could make the playoffs if everything falls into place. Pressure is on Carson Wentz. Vegas has them favored to win the division. My number is 8.8 wins. No Play
Action – No Play
Washington Redskins – Vegas Win total is 6
Schedule – Medium – At large vs San Francisco and Carolina
Key losses: OLB Preston Smith, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (borrowed), WR Jamison Crowder, OT Ty Nsekhe, ILB Zach Brown
Key additions: ILB Reuben Foster, S Landon Collins, QB Case Keenum, LT Ereck Flowers
Whom they drafted: QB Dwayne Haskins, OLB Montez Sweat, WR Terry McLaurin, RB Bryce Love, G Wes Martin, C Ross Pierschbacher, OLB Cole Holcomb, WR Kelvin Harmon, CB Jimmy Moreland, OLB Jordan Brailford
Summary: The Redskins mustered up 7 wins last year getting most of them when healthy. This team pretty much lost their whole offensive line to injury as well as 3 quarterbacks. They were competing for the division until the Alex Smith’s gruesome injury and he most likely is out again this year. Daniel Snyder and Bruce Allen succeeded in getting the best overall draft in the league and that is unanimous among most of the NFL analysts. They didn’t need to move to land franchise quarterback Dwayne Haskins, and they got him two key targets in Terry McLaurin – a former Buckeyes teammate of Haskins and the underrated Kelvin Harmon. Drafting Haskins at pick 15 was steal in my opinion as he was the top of my QB draft board. Edge rusher Montez Sweat was a great pick with a trade up and back into the first round. Fantastic Draft overall! I love their pickup in Landon Collins but they are still a little weak on offensive line, wide receivers, and linebackers. The Redskins Pythagorean was pretty low last year at 5.29. I also do not like their coach but you can’t argue with what they did last year before injuries. This could be a very sneaky team.
My number is a whopping 8.6 wins for this team but I can only count 6 wins on their schedule when I look at it so I am kinda torn. I have to take this over at 2.6 game difference but I don’t love it at all. Going small
Action – Over 6 wins
4. New York Giants – Vegas Win total is 6
Schedule – Easy – At large vs Tampa Bay and Arizona
Key losses: WR Odell Beckham Jr., S Landon Collins, DE Olivier Vernon, G Jamon Brown, CB B.W. Webb, DE Mario Edwards
Key additions: G Kevin Zeitler, WR Golden Tate, S Antone Bethea, DE Markus Golden
Whom they drafted: QB Daniel Jones, DT Dexter Lawrence, CB Deandre Baker, DE/OLB Oshane Ximines, CB Julian Love, ILB Ryan Connelly, WR Darius Slayton, CB Corey Ballentine, OT George Asafo-Adjei, DT Christopher Slayton
Summary: What the hell are you doing??? I can go on a rant forever about them signing O’dell Beckham only to trade him and take a 20 million dollar cap hit. At last O’dell was a headcase and they somewhat recouped with Golden Tate but all at what cost. Dave Gettleman may be the worst GM in this league. I can like everyone else complain about them selecting Daniel Jones rather than trading down or getting Josh Allen but that is now water under the bridge. Even though they did the draft wrong, they still had a lot of picks and I love the Dexter Laurence and Deandre Baker picks. I really liked the value that they received with late pick WR Darius Slayton. One has to remember not to overreact on some dumb decisions because overall their draft was still better than most teams even though they did a bad job and could have been better. I must admit that I hated them losing Landon Collins but at least they replaced him with less expensive Antone Bethea. Where the Giants missed out on was improving their offensive line and edge rusher. Daniel Jones could be better than Eli by mid-season and possibly start. The good news for the Giants is that they have the easiest at large schedule. I have them at 6.3 wins.
The Angels are in Seattle for the second stop on their 8 game road trip. They have gone 3-1 on this road trip so far averaging 8 runs per game. Mike Trout is back to give their lineup a boost. However, Ohtani missed their last game due to match-up reasons. That didn’t stop them from scoring 8 runs in the first 5 innings and 9 runs in the game. He should be back in their tonight as they face a righty in Mike Leake to give them another presence in the lineup. The last time the Angels failed to score 5 runs in a game was almost a week ago against Texas.
Mike Leake comes into this game with an average 3.80 ERA at home, with a 2.98 FIP and 3.98 xFIP. With that being said, he’s giving up a fair amount of hard contact at home at 39.2%. His line drive and fly ball ratios also account for more than half of the balls hit off of him at 53.2%. More line drives and fly balls usually tend to result in more home runs. Leake has also been lit up like a gas can his last 2 starts against Oakland and Texas. Against Oakland he went 6 2/3 innings giving up 5 runs and 2 home runs. Against Texas he went 5 innings giving up 7 runs and 3 home runs. The Angels have a better hitting team, or at least are on par with both Oakland and Texas. I can see a blood bath here with the Angels getting the better part of that.
Take LA Angels Team Total OVER 2.5 (-115) for the first 5 innings.
Take LA Angels Team Total OVER 4.5 (-145) for the game.
