Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We are back after a 2 week break to discuss more NFL Season win totals! Before we do that Kiev gets into a few more states that have legalized sports betting. Next Kiev discusses the NFC East season win totals and then finally gets into the NFC West.
#NFL #NFLSEASONWINTOTAL #NFL2019 #Gamblingtwitter
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Detroit heads from Mo Town to the Big Apple to face the Mets with both teams struggling as of late. The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10, while the Mets are treading water at 5-5 in their last 10. The wind will also be blowing in from left in this game between 10 and 15 mph all game long. The wind should help both pitchers keep the ball in the park and keep scoring down.
Gregory Soto heads to the mound for the Tigers. His first 3 big league starts haven’t been stellar, but they’ve been serviceable; especially the last 2. He’s gone 2 IP 2 R and 4 IP 3 R in his last 2 starts. This will be his first start on a full 5 days’ rest. Soto has a good sinker that he throws often to both righties and lefties. Outside of J.D. Davis and Pete Alonso, the Mets lineup doesn’t hit well against that pitch. The Mets overall aren’t hitting that well period. Batting averages range from .150 to .283. Outside of Pete Alonso’s 16 HRs, the next highest total in tonight’s starting lineup is 5 from J.D. Davis. I think Soto can have a good start here and keep this one close.
Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the Mets. It seems he has found his groove in 3 of his last 4 starts after a horrific start to the season. His last 4 starts are 7 IP 2 R, 8 IP 2 R, 6 IP 5 R and 9 IP 0 R. This Tigers team is also a very weak hitting team with averages ranging between .164 and .298. The lineup leader in HRs is Ronny Rodriguez with 6. I think Thor can dominate this lineup tonight and I can see him going deep in this game. I would be shocked if he doesn’t make it through 7 IP.
Between weak hitters and a stiff wind blowing in from left, lock in the pick now!
NFC South has a medium hard schedule. The last 2 years had this conference as the best in the NFL. Last year didn’t really live up to that standard but we have to remember that the Falcons and the Panthers have both been to Superbowls with their same coach and quarterbacks over the last 4 years. The NFC South plays the NFC West and the AFC South. Jaguars and 49ers should be better teams. Still get the Cardinals at least.
1. New Orleans Saints – Win Total 10.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Cowboys and at the Bears
Key losses: RB Mark Ingram, C Max Unger, ILB Manti Te’o, S Kurt Coleman, TE Benjamin Watson, OT Jermon Bushrod, DT Tyeler Davison, CB P.J. Williams
Key additions: TE Jared Cook, RB Latavius Murray, C/G Nick Easton, DT Malcom Brown, CB/KR Marcus Sherels, DE Mario Edwards
Whom they drafted: C Erik McCoy, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Saquan Hampton, TE Alize Mack, LB Kaden Elliss
Summary: Can this team relive the success that they had last year and regain the momentum they lost when the NFL literally stole their playoff game from them? Well anything is possible with a guy like Drew Breese but this team will once again have it tough with their at large games and players that they lost. This team will have to replace some production this year. I do not like the Saints losing Ingram, Te’o, Unger, Coleman, Watson and Davison. I suppose New Orlean’s draft could help a little but not a ton of picks there. I do like picking up Jerred Cook and Malcolm brown. I have to deduct a half game for good health last year and 2 games for the players that they lost. Give them a half game back for draft and free agency and you have 10.5 on the button.
Action: none
2. Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 9
Schedule: Hard – Atlanta plays the Vikings and the Eagles for at large. Not really easy.
Key additions: G James Carpenter, G Jamon Brown, TE Luke Stocker, RB Kenjon Barner
Key losses: CB Robert Alford, RB Tevin Coleman, DE Bruce Irvin, CB Brian Poole, RT Ryan Schraeder, DE Brooks Reed, CB Justin Bethel, WR Marvin Hall
Whom they drafted: G Chris Lindstrom, OT Kaleb McGary, CB Kendall Sheffield, DE John Cominskey, RB Qadree Ollison, CB Jordan Miller, WR Marcus Green
Summary: Atlanta had 7 wins last year. I really like how this teams Pythagorean win total is .75 games over their actual to 7.75. Almost average. The Atlanta Falcons had a medium schedule last year but this team was pretty decimated with injuries losing Devonte Freemon, Dion Jones and Lorenzo Neal early in the season. I have to give them a half game back for that. Now they will be without their best CB Robert Alford, Both defensive ends, RB Telvin Coleman and CB Justin Bethel. Minus a half game there. Their schedule will be hard this year so I have to penalize them a game for that. When I look at their draft they really focused on the O line and guys like me really like that. Give them a game back for that. I really do not think they did quite enough to replace what they lost on defense and they ranked 5th worst last year giving up 6.1 yards per play. I have this team at 7.4 wins which is enough threshold to make a play.
Action: Under 9 wins
3. Carolina Panthers – Win total is 7.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Packers and the Redskins.
Key additions: C Matt Paradis, DE Bruce Irvin, WR Chris Hogan
Key losses: LB Thomas Davis, C Ryan Kalil, LT Matt Kalil, WR Devin Funchess, LB David Mayo, K Chandler Catanzaro, RB Kenjon Barner
Whom they drafted: DE Brian Burns, OT Greg Little, QB Will Grier, DE/OLB Christian Miller, RB Jordan Scarlett, OT Dennis Daley, WR Terry Godwin
Summary: Carolina lost a lot with the Kalil Brothers on O-line but I think they recovered nicely picking up Matt Paradis from Denver and Drafting Greg Little. Marty Hurney hit it out of the park in addressing the team’s biggest needs up front with Burns . He also wise to invest a little higher pick on Grier to help push Cam Newton. Miller was a sneaky pickup for Ron Rivera’s planned hybrid defense. Picking up Chris Hogan was a nice touch. I think that over all they gained on this draft and free agency a net 1 game is fair against their losses. Funchess wasn’t a huge loss but they do lack in pass catchers. Schedule was Medium last year and will be Medium Hard this year playing at Green Bay. I have them at 7.65
Action: No Play
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Win total at 6.5
Schedule: – Medium Hard – At large games vs the Lions and the Giants
Key additions: P Bradley Pinion, OLB Shaquil Barrett, S Kentrell Brice, S Deone Bucannon, WR Breshard Perriman
Key losses: OLB Kwon Alexander, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Adam Humphries, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, ILB Adarius Taylor, DE Vinny Curry
Whom they drafted: ILB Devin White, CB Sean Bunting, CB Jamel Dean, S Mike Edwards, DE Anthony Nelson, K Matt Gay, WR Scott Miller, DT Terry Beckner Jr.
Summary: I really don’t know why most people think that Tampa’s schedule is harder than Carolina’s but so be it I guess. I love their new coach Bruce Ariens and I think he is a definite half game upgrade there right off the bat. This team really needed defensive back help and they went hard on that in the draft with their top 5 rounds going defense. Tampa gave up a huge 29 points per game last year but that was in part from their -18 turnover margin. Sadly this team was pretty healthy last year and still could only mustered up 5 wins. The Buccaneers will still have a tough time replacing Kwon Alexander and Adarius Taylor. They didn’t really help their O-line issues and Edge pass rusher problems well this draft but they had so many holes making it hard to address everything. Jameis Winston has to prove to be that leader that they thought they drafted a 3 or 4 years ago. Many people didn’t love their draft but I thought it was ok because their defensive backs were glaringly bad. I like the Shaq Barett and Deone Bucannon pickups. Replacing Deshawn Jackson and Adam Humphries won’t be easy but they do have 2 nice tight ends. Tampa lost about a win’s worth of guys but gain back 1.5 wins in the draft and free agency and coach. This should be a honeymoon year for Tampa Bay. I have them at 5.5 wins.
Ok! So all of the horse handicappers and experts (which I’m not) that I follow all have very different opinions on this race. Basically there are 10 horses that can honestly win or place in this thing and 3 tosses. The way that I am going to play this is keying in on #2 Bourbon War and #13 Win Win Win. Those are my 2 main ponies for today. #5 Owendale is the trendy pick. The #3 horse Warriors Charge is the trendy early leader and could go all the way. I personally like the fact that # 7 Always Mining has won 7 races in a row so i used him quite a bit. All in for $224. Best of luck everyone!
NFC NORTH: This conference will be very tough having to play the NFC East and the AFC West. The Redskins should be better in the NFC east to go along with the Cowboys and Eagles while the Raiders and Broncos should be better as well to go along with the Chargers and the Chiefs. The NFC North will also be tough again within division play with the Bears defense, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers and the Vikings wanting to get back to the playoffs.
1. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 9.5
Schedule: Very Hard – At large games vs the Saints and the Rams
Key Losses: CB Bryce Callahan, Jordan Howard RB, Adrian Amos FS, Cody Parkey K (maybe a good thing)
Key Additions: Haha Clinton Dix FS, Buster Scrine CB, Mike Davis RB
Whom they drafted: RB David Montgomery, WR Riley Ridley, CB Duke Shelley, RB Kerrith White, CB Stephen Denmark
Summary: The Bears coming off of a 12 win season but were actually pretty close to getting 14. A Cody Parkey missed FG against and an epic collapse against the Packers back on game 1 sure didn’t help. The bad news for this team is that they had the second easiest schedule last year and now they will have the 5th hardest. The Bears at least get the Chiefs, Saints and Chargers at home. Chicago really didn’t lose too much and they also didn’t gain much due to not having a lot of draft picks from the Kalil Mack trade. After factoring in that they were very healthy last year and their harder schedule I have them at 9.6 wins. Hope their new kicker coming in is able to handle the pressure.
Action – No Action
2. Minnesota Vikings – Win Total 9
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Falcons and Seahawks
Key Losses: DT Sheldon Richardson, C/G Nick Easton, RB Latavius Murray, QB Trevor Siemian, G Tom Compton, S Andrew Sendejo
Key Additions: RB Ameer Abdula, G Josh Kline, DT Shamar Stephen
Whom they drafted: C Garrett Bradbury, TE Irv Smith, RB Alexander Mattison, G Dru Samia, ILB Cameron Smith, DT Armon Watts, S Marcus Epps, OT Oli Udoh, CB Kris Boyd, WR Dillon Mitchell, WR Olabisi Johnson, LS Austin Cutting
The Vikings have a Medium schedule but I think it is closer to medium hard. At large games vs the Falcons and Seahawks. They did pretty well in the Draft but failed to replace DT Sheldon Richardson and S Andrew Sendejo with anything viable and I think they may feel that. Minnesota did beef up their O-Line at least through the draft and picking up Josh Kline. Losing Latavius Murray and Gaining Ameere Abdula was more of a wash. This team wasn’t that injured last year and still couldn’t get over the hump. This schedule will prove tough enough to send them under 9 wins.
Action– Under 9 wins at +100
3. Green Bay Packers Win Total 9.5
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs the Panthers and the 49ers
Key Losses: DT Muhammad Wilkerson, OLB Clay Matthews, OLB Nick Perry, WR Randall Cobb, ILB Jake Ryan
Key additions: OLB Za’Darius Smith, OLB Preston Smith, S Adrian Amos, OT Billy Turner, TE Mercedes Lewis
Whom they drafted: DT/DE Rashan Gary, S Darnell Savage, C/G Elgton Jenkins, TE Jace Sternberger, DE Kingsley Keke, CB Ka’dar Hollman, RB Dexter Williams, ILB Ty Summers
Summary: I do not love who the packers drafted in the first round being that I said Rashan Gary was overrated before the draft even began with only 10 sacks in 3 years. I think that not replacing Muhammad Wilkerson will prove to be detrimental but I can’t really dock them since he was injured most of last year. The Packers also really did not find an impact receiver to replace Cobb. Losing Clay Matthews and replacing him with Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith is just robbing peter to pay Paul for the most part. I got them upgraded to between 7.5 and 8 wins (7.6) But do you really want to bet against Rodgers in a revenge type year with a new coach when Rodgers has to prove it wasn’t his fault for 6 wins in 2018?
Action:Lean under
4. Detroit Lions – Win Schedule 7
Schedule: – Medium – At large games vs the Buccaneers and the Cardinals
Key losses: DE Ezekiel Ansah, G T.J. Lang, S Glover Quin, RB LeGarrette Blount, TE Luke Willson, TE Levine Toilolo
Key additions: DE Trey Flowers, CB Justin Coleman, CB Rashaan Melvin TE Jesse James, WR Danny Amendola, TE Logan Thomas, WR Tommylee Lewis
Whom they drafted: TE T.J. Hockenson, LB Jahlani Tavai, S Will Harris, DE Austin Bryant, CB Amani Oruwariye, WR Travis Fulgham, RB Ty Johnson, CB Amani Oruwariye, TE Isaac Nauta, DT P.J. Johnson
Summary: The Lions did pretty well getting some old Patriots for Matt Patricia’s defense but they still have a long way to go. Losing Ezekile Ansah definitely hurt and they didn’t do much to help their O line. TJ Hockenson will help some but Stafford better once again be quick and ready to get rid of the ball. Detroit’s defense should take a step forward and I think they should gain at last a half game over last year bringing them to 6.9 wins on another medium strength of schedule
We are back with even more firepower! ESPN’s the Bear Chris Fallica is here to break down the Preakness Stakes! Before we get into horse racing action, Kiev continues to talk about NFL season projections and win totals for the NFC South. Then Chris comes on and we first talk a little Kentucky Derby and his huge winning ticket. What could NBC and/or the stewards do better next time to communicate the objection? Then we get right into the 2019 Preakness Stakes with the weather outlook. Next we discuss post positions of these thoroughbreds and which horses should be on the lead. Then, we discuss the favorites and the long-shots and find out who we are throwing out this year. Finally talk about ways of attacking this race!
#THE2019PREAKNESSSTAKES #HORSERACING #PIMLICO
Should you need a sports book please visit www.youwager.eu for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
The Preakness Stakes is here and there is no better person to have on than Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo @MarcoinVegas to help us break it down! Before we get into horse racing action, Kiev discusses a little NBA draft lottery. Then Kiev goes into a calculated approach to NFL season projections and win totals for the NFC North. Then Marco comes on and we first talk recap the Kentucky Derby and how it might apply to this race. Did they get it right? What could NBC and the stewards do better next time? Why isn’t Maximum Security and Country House in the Preakness? Then we get right into the 2019 Preakness Stakes with the history of the race and the weather outlook. Next we discuss post positions of these thoroughbreds and Beyer’s speed figures. Then, we discuss the favorites and the longshots and find out who we are throwing out this year! Finally talk about ways of attacking this race! Get Marco’s Preakness and Saturday Packages at www.wagertalk.com.
#THE2019PREAKNESSSTAKES #HORSERACING #PIMLICO
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
This is the rubber game of this series as the Yankees look to get closer to first place and the Rays look to extend their lead in the AL East.
The Yankees are sending Masahiro Tanaka to the mound. Tanaka has pitched 15 innings on the road giving up 10 runs, good for a 5.17 ERA. His K rate is down and walk rate is up as well. He holds a FIP of 6.16 and xFIP of 5.09, so this is pretty much what we should expect going forward. He’s also giving up a 50% hard hit rate.
The Rays send out Blake Snell who looked dominant his last time out. He’s pitched 22 innings at home to a tune of a 2.82 ERA. Carrying an 83.3% left on base percentage, a 3.73 FIP and 2.89 xFIP, it’s hard not to like his chances here.
The Yankees have also had a pretty sub-par lineup with all of their injuries so far this year. If Snell can get through the top half of the lineup unscathed, he should fare well against the bottom 2/3 of it.
Like I have said before many times, I do not handicap horses professionally but I do listen to a lot of advice and this is what I came up with. I am basically betting a lot of different combinations where I can hit a few Trifectas a few different times for the horses with the lowest odds. I am also going to try and protect my investment by putting a little on my fade horses By My Standards and Maximum Security to Win Place Show in order to protect my exotics. I will be rooting for Improbable. Let’s hope a no name horse doesn’t come out of nowhere to bust the ticket! I also did a few other Win Place Shows for members. Best of luck everyone!
The run for the roses is here and we are very fortunate to bring back our friend and well known handicapper #ESPN ‘s “The Bear” Chris Fallica @chrisfallica. We first talk about college football because how could you not.? Future prices and Heisman prices are discussed. We then go into if there could be a triple crown winner this year and if you like the yes then how should you bet it. Next we discuss the UAE derby and how Chris was spot on last year by calling out that winner Mendelssohn to not do well in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Then we discuss post positions and Beyers speed figures. Next we talk about the horses that Chris is throwing out of his card this year. Finally, we discuss the favorites and the long-shots and find out how Chris will be attacking this race!
Should you need a sports book or race book please visit www.youwager.eu for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
