Colorado +4.5 1U – This is more of a fade on Nebraska. The fact that the Akron game got cancelled makes this a much nicer spot for the Buffs. Colorado had 596 yards last game vs Colorado state and should be able to put some points up. We all know how good of a coach that Scott Frost is but it is way to early for such a huge impact to be made. Now i do not like Colorado’s returning production only ranked 123rd in the NCAA but i do like the fact that they have their QB Steven Montez. Consistency is key and they are looking to make a comeback this year. Nebraska has a true freshman in Adrian Martinez starting this game.
Colorado vs Nebraska O/U 63.5 PREMIUM
Georgia Southern -2.5 1Unit – I really like the way Georgia Southern finished last year after a terrible start. What I really like is that they are 3rd in returning production at 90%. They got back to their triple option roots and it worked well rushing over 200 yards last game. Umass on the other hand played a very tough game vs Boston College and I do not like how they will match up vs the triple option this week. Power ratings has this game Georgia southern by 3.5 so I will take this key below the key number.
Arkansas -12 1Unit – Is it wrong to keep fading Colorado State? Arkansas has new life after hiring coach Chad Morris. Mike Bobo had a terrible start this year working with a brand new team with brand new players. 130 in returning production is worst in the NCAA. Power rating has this game by 17 points. I’ll go with the SEC here all day at this number.
Arkansas St +36.5 1Unit – Alabama has been very consistent in 1 thing over the past 5 6 years. They blow out SEC and other power 5 schools and then they relax against smaller schools kinda like a big brother beating up little bro.
Buffalo vs Temple – PREMIUM PLAY
Penn State -7.5. After the App State scare, there is no way that James Franklin and Tracy Mcsorly is going to let the worst team in the ACC beat them. This is a Get Up spot for Penn State and the power ratings has this game by 12.
South Carolina +14 – Took this one a long time ago. It’s completely based on Power ratings and returning production. Muschamp has his QB deebo Samual poised here to make a huge statement at home. Georgia lost quite a few players from last year on offense and defense. I like the game cocks to possibly win outright this game and the spread here is good down to 7 points…
Liberty +10 and ML sprinkle vs Army – Liberty played a seasoned old Dominion Team and kicked the absolute shit out of them in their 2018 FBS debut. 52-10. Army had a very tough break by having to play a great Duke team while returning some very low production on offense. Liberty being in the FCS all these years have played many triple option teams and should be ready to hold army. Liberty is trying to prove that they belong and it is working. I am with the Sharps here.
Baylor -14.5 vs UTSA – Baylor is poised to have a great year after a horrible one last year. I love coaches in their second year especially when they are motivated. Matt Ruhl has 88% returning production and this team should be able to easily handle one of the worst teams in football. Power ratings have this game Baylor by 18
Baylor vs UTSA O/U 50 PREMIUM PLAY
E Michigan vs Purdue over 55 – Purdue plays fast. Many times they have a no huddle. Rondale Moore for purdue might have 300 yards this game.
Michigan State vs Arizona State Premium
NFL
Tennessee vs Miami Under 45 – Both teams had terrible offenses last year. Miami averaged 17 PPG and the Titans averaged 21. Now Miami lost their top WR in Jarvis Landry. Ryan Tannahill is just as bad as Jay Cutler IMO. On the other hand the defenses were not too bad here… I think there is some value here especially because Tennessee is a rushing team and they now have a very defensive minded coach in Vrable. They will try and control this game and be careful here
Chicago vs Green Bay +7.5 – Bears had a top 10 defense last year and is super motivated after the Kalil Mack addition. New coach means that we will see a completely different team. The Packers have linebacker woes which should open up the run game for the Bears. I like the Packers to win by 4 points. because they still have Rodgers.
Kansas City vs San Diego -3.5 – Simple. Green QB in Mahomes and fierce pass rush with San Diego. This is ALL you need to know here. I love the fact that Antonio Gates is back. Chargers by 8
After a tough week 1 we cover the failed narratives and what we need to do about it for week 2. We then get into let down spots, look ahead spots and sharp line movement. The final segment we get into week 2 college football and NFL sports picks.
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There isn’t a ton going on in the ACC this week as several teams are playing FCS teams. I was able to find a few plays for us this week.
Duke vs Northwestern (-3)
Since 2015, Northwestern has beat Duke 2 out of 3 times. The average Northwestern win has been by 10 points. Northwestern will be in line for a revenge spot as they lost at Duke last year 41-17. The average score in the past 19 meetings is Northwestern 22.9 – Duke 22.3 and the series is 10-9 in favor of Northwestern.
Northwestern comes off a win against Purdue in week 1. Purdue again out gained Northwestern for the second straight year. After a 31-17 lead at the half, Purdue’s defense shut them out in the second half. Another concern for Northwestern is the health of Clayton Thorson. In order to bring home the win in this one, Northwestern will need to control the tempo of the game and limit their mistakes. They will also need to make some plays through the air and get some stops on defense.
Duke is coming off a win against Army’s triple option in week 1. Duke had a very balanced attack with 17 pass plays going for 197 yards and 35 rush attempts going for 184 yards. The key for Duke in this game is going to be the play of QB Daniel Jones. In last year’s game he had 305 yards passing and 108 yards rushing. He was also nearly the leading rusher against Army. If Northwestern can’t contain him, they’re in for a long day.
I was not impressed with Northwestern in the Purdue game, and Purdue probably should have beat them. If Duke’s defense can contain Northwestern’s offense, I would look for them to have a good shot at covering the spread and possibly winning outright. Take Duke +3 for 1U and sprinkle the ML for 1U.
Clemson vs Texas A&M (+12.5)
Both of these programs are coming off wins in week 1 vs FCS teams. They both won handily, which was to be expected. Clemson managed over 500 yards of offense vs Furman. Texas A&M managed over 750 yards against Northwestern St. This should be a fun as Dabo Swinney will go against a familiar foe in Jimbo Fisher.
Coming in to the year Clemson has been highly regarded as the second best team behind Alabama. From what we’ve seen so far, there’s no reason to doubt that’s the case. With starter Kelly Bryant playing well and freshman Trevor Lawrence impressing, Clemson’s offense is looking like it shouldn’t drop off no matter who’s under center. Clemson’s defense was also impressive allowing only 163 total yards.
Texas A&M is a bit of a wildcard team with Jimbo Fisher heading over to the SEC. They looked good early and were able to run the ball extremely effectively. Again this was against an FCS team, so there might not be a ton of carryover here, especially going against one of the best defenses in the country this week. I’m interested to see what Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies can muster against Clemson on both sides of the ball.
This one could go either way as far as the total goes. It could be a grind it out game with Clemson’s defense, or it could be a bit of a shootout if the offenses get rolling. I’m staying away from the total here. Take Clemson -12.5 for 1U.
Hawaii really put on the points last week versus Colorado St 43 points and their quarterback McDonald amassed over 500 total yards. However this week they have a much tougher test with The Midshipmen. Navy loves to control the clock (averaged 36:18 time of possession last year) to limit opportunities which they will have to do to be successful against this new Hawaii offense. The line opened up at 51 and has been driven up to 61 largely due to an over-reaction to Hawaii most recent game. Possible let down for Hawaii as came out as 17 point dogs and won straight up last week. Navy games hit the under at 64% last year. I will gladly take my chances on the Under 61. 2 unit play
Rice Vs Houston
Technically a home game for Rice but since these two campuses are roughly 10 mins away I see it being packed with Cougar faithful. Rice barely snuck out a win against Prairie View last week. I don’t see how this team scores on Ed Oliver and the 59% of production they return on Defense. Prairie View’s Qb ran well on Rice I can only imagine the field day D’Eriq King will have. Give me Houston -26. 1 unit play
This one is basically based on Wisconsin’s greener than last year defense and W Kentucky’s pace of play. The Hilltoppers threw the ball 60% of the time last year slowing the clock and played at a top 17 pace at 78.4 plays per game. This should allow plenty of time for the Badgers to run up this Score. Badgers over 52.5 2U
Nov 18, 2017; Lubbock, TX, USA; The Texas Tech Red Raiders masked rider enters the field before the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Tech v. Ole Miss – This game is going to be a great way to kickoff the 2018 college football season, as these teams travel to Houston Texas to take each other on. Now Texas Tech is only returning 31% of their offense but their defense is a whole different story. The D is returning 96% of its defense with 10 returning starters, the defense was lights out last year not only in the Big 12 but the entire nation. Ole Miss comes into this game returning 64% on O & 62% on defense. Ole Miss does have some big play makers returning on the offense, which is going to be a fun battle with Techs defense. My #s have Tech -3.5. One of the things I factored in was the re-build state that ole miss is in dating back to last years problems. PLAYING TEXAS TECH -2 for 1U
West Virginia v Tennessee – This game is going to be a great follow up after the Texas Tech Ole Miss game. West Virginia & that high octane offense lead by Will Grier is taking on the Vols out of the SEC. Now everybody knows about Will Grier by now, but they’re also returning 2 of the best WRs in the league. Now the Vols are a different story, they’re definitely in a re-building stage with a new head coach. West Virginia is returning 72% on offense & 57% on defense. Tennessee comes in returning 58% on offense & 61% on defense. My #s have this game WVU – 12.5. I think WVU offense will wear down the Vols throughout the game as WVU covers & start their 2018 campaign with a W. PLAYING WEST VIRGINIA -12.5 for 1U
Wake Forest returns a lot of production this year on both offense (74%) and defense (69%) for 72% returning production overall. Their offense was extremely explosive last year as they averaged 465.8 yards per game and 6.29 yards per play. Their defense left a bit to be desired, but the offense was able to make up for that. With returning that much production on defense, they should be a bit improved this year. Wake Forest also returns their leading rusher to go along with an upperclassman stacked offense and defense as they only start 3 underclassmen on offense and 2 on defense. The wild card here will be their true freshman QB Sam Hartman. I would expect a conservative game plan here to get him into game action. They were a run heavy offense last year and I don’t see that changing in the early part of the season.
Tulane returns a lot of their offensive production (86%), but not a lot of their defensive production (44%). Their total returning production is 65%. The major concern here is their defense. They didn’t have a good defense last year as they ranked 98th giving up an average of 436.1 yards per game and 6.68 yards per play. They also start 5 underclassmen on defense. The bright side for Tulane will be their offense early on this year. They return starting QB Jonathan Banks. He’s a senior and second year starter for this team so we’ll see if they open up the offense for him at all. He’s a dual threat QB who mostly ran last year in a run heavy offensive scheme. Tulane also lost Dontrell Hilliard who was their leading rusher at 1,091 yards for the season. Darius Bradwell will have some big shoes to fill, but he did average 6.2 yards per carry last year. We’ll see if he can keep up that kind of production this year.
With Wake Forest being led by upperclassmen on both sides of the ball, I think they’ll be able to protect QB Sam Hartman from making big mistakes in this game. A run heavy offense with an improved defense should see Wake Forest pulling this game out, especially with the defensive woes Tulane could see early in the season. Also, since we haven’t seen a ton of returning production on Tulane’s defense, and with both defenses being a bit shaky, we’ll take a look at the total on this one. Take Wake Forest -6 for 2U. Also take Over 55 for 1U.
Miami @ LSU (+3.5)
Miami should have a distinct advantage in this game as they return 68% of their offensive production and 70% of their defensive production. Miami should be improved on both sides of the ball and will want to make up for their 3-game losing streak at the end of last season. Malik Rosier should also be improved and not make the bad mistakes he was prone to last year, especially at the end of the year. Miami also got a new indoor practice facility this year. We’ll see if it has any advantage going forward. Miami also starts only 1 underclassman on offense and defense. That experience should also carry an advantage.
LSU only returns 39% of their offense and 57% of their defense. They are starting 7 underclassmen on offense and 6 on defense. They will be trying to replace their QB Danny Etling & RB Derrius Guice. They did bring in Joe Burrow as a transfer from Ohio St to help out at QB. This team will be very inexperienced in the skill positions, and Ed Orgeron is not a good coach in my opinion.
As I stated in the video, I do believe the neutral field is an advantage for Miami as they skip having to go to Death Valley for a night game. Mark Richt should also coach circles around Ed Orgeron. Take Miami -3.5 for 2U.
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
UNC vs Cal – Cal -6.5 might be 7.5 now
So I know this is a revenge game for North Carolina being beaten at home by Cal the first game of the year 35-30, but that won’t be enough against Justin Wilcox and this team that was 8-4 ATS last year. Both teams were pretty identical last year in yards per play both on Defense and in Offense but Cal had the harder schedule. Not only does North Carolina have a huge travel spot going across the country to play this game, they also are only returning 1 Starter on offensive line. That is bad news for them Vs Justin Wilcox blitz happy defensive schemes. It also looks like starting QB Chazz Surratt will be suspended the first four games along with their top D-Ends Malik Carney and Tomon Fox. NOT GOOD. Cal ranks 19th in returning production with 10 players on the offense itself. I have Cal power rated about 6 points over UNC. Cal by 12. Cal – 6.5 1U
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5
I have Purdon’t as a Purdooooo type team this year. Both teams 9-4 ATS last year. Second year under Jeff Brohm returning 77% of their offensive production to Northwestern’s 67%. A glaring fact and look into this number is that it counts NU QB Clayton Thorson is returning from a Late December torn ACL injury but I can’t imagine him being ready week 1. Northwestern also lost their top running back Justin Jackson to the draft. Both teams return most of their O line and the Cats edge out Purdue in returning defense at 61% to Purdue’s 41%. Because of the Thorson injury, I am not as concerned for Purdue’s lack of defense here. I like Purdue by 6 points with Thorson and 8 without. Purdue – 3.5 2U
NM State vs Minnestota -17.5 Thursday Game
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck announced his team’s starting quarterback on Monday and has selected true freshman Zack Annexstad. The IMG Academy product edged out red-shirt freshman Tanner Morgan for the role. Now this gopher team is still in rebuild on second year but returns over 2/3 of their production. Rodney Smith returns and Running back and Thomas Barber on Linebacker will be playing on sundays in the NFL. On the other hand New Mexico State got blown out at home on national tv against Wyoming and has a very short week to prepare for this game.. The Aggies averaged -.5 rushing yards per play and only 144 yards passing. They might be the worst team in FBS.
Florida Atlantic vs Oklahoma -21
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
Akron vs Nebraska -24
Akron returns a ton of defense and their QB Kato Nelson. Nebraska returns 70% of a bad defense. Both teams will have a new QB. Akron returns 87% of defense. I love Scott Frost but this first game of his should not be a blowout. I have this game in my power rankings with home field Nebraska by 17. Akron +24 1U
BYU vs Arizona -12
Well if you listened to previous podcasts then you know I am high on Arizona. New coach Kevin Sumlin will look to make a statement with his huge weapon in Kalil Tate. The Defense returns a staggering 79% and retains coordinator Marcel Yates who worked with Sumlin in the past. I think there is good reason for this and I am looking for better numbers here. In the mean time BYU returns a bad offense a mediocre D, and a Quarterback controversy. BYU should not be able to keep up with Arizona and this could be a blowout. AZ – 12 and I like it to 14 1U
Indiana vs FIU +10.5
Indiana doesn’t return a ton of production but FIU returns even less. At least Indiana returns Peyton Ramsey at QB. We also forget about Nick Westbrook who was hurt and out for the season the first game last year. FIU will be replacing a QB with a graduate transfer James Morgan. Most of all this is a pure power ratings play favoring the Big 10 by 14 points… Indiana -10.5 1U
UNLV vs USC O/U 62
So we know that USC returns pretty much nobody on offense and about 2/3 of defense. UNLV on the other hand is a ground team that runs the ball 64% of the time. USC was looked at as a reload type team but I think it may be too much to ask to have to replace all of those skill positions this early in the season. I definitely like USC to win big vs this Running team of UNLV but I also think USC will run the ball a ton since they have a new QB. There will not be enough time to get to 62 points. Under 62 1u
Premium: Michigan vs Notre Dame O/U 48
So we know that Michigan has maybe the number 1 returning defense in all of football this year, but we cannot ignore the fact that Notre Dame only allowed 21.5 points per game last year and 5 yards per play. This is with that Miami blow out game factored in. With Michigan only allowing 18 points per game last year and returning Notre Dame is a run first type offense that returns 96% production on defense! i love this Under 48 for 2U
Premium: Ole Miss vs Texas Tech O/U now at 67.5
Ok, you may think i am crazy here but if you look inside the advanced stats you will agree with me. Texas Tech has been an over darling for years!!!! But what happened last year? They only went over their total 5 out of 13 times. The reason for this was they were 124th in Red Zone efficiency at 68%. The Red Raiders do play fast at a top 9 pace but on the other hand Ole miss plays SLOWWWWWW. Matt Luke’s Ole miss team last year only average about 70 plays per game and with all the controversy last year was able to finish the season winning 3 of the last 4. On the other hand Texas Tech majorly improved on defense giving up 32 points per game down from 43.5 in 2016. PLUS they return 10 out of 11 starters on D. Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense and only 1 skill position! Jett Duffey will have his hands full at QB the first few games as a sophomore. This game will be played on a neutral site at NGR stadium in Houston giving a slight advantage to the Red Raiders and that stronger defense. Under and wait until 68.5 or more
Other Notable games
Washington vs Auburn -2.5
If it goes back to +3 i’ll possibly take Washington’s side. Gonna wait right before game time and see about a 3.5
Va Tech vs Florida State -7.5 – Good game for me to watch.
Louisville vs Alabama -25 – I think these QBs are still not comfortable so wait it out.
SHARP ACTION REPORT:
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5 to -2.5 NU down from +3.5 to +2.5 A Little bit of sharp but I disagree with that move
Wake Forest vs Tulane +7 to +6.5 – Tulane from 7 to +6.5 Sharp
Syracuse vs Western Michigan +5.5 to +6 – Syracuse from -5.5 to -6
Army vs Duke -10.5 to -13.5 Duke
Colorado vs Colorado state +6 to +7.5 Sharp on Colorado
Ole Miss vs Texas tech +1.5 to -2.5 Sharp on Tex Tech
Texas vs Maryland +10.5 to +12.5 Sharp on Texas
Umass vs Boston College -20 to -18.5 Public Move, Sharp money is on BC. Public remembers them playing Tennessee and Miss State last year
UNLV vs USC -27 to -24.5 Sharp on UNLV
Marshall vs Miami Ohio -1.5 – 2.5 Miami Oh
Washington vs Auburn -3 to -2.5 Washington Sharp
Indiana vs FIU +12 to +10.5 FIU – I disagree with the move and agree with the sports books
UTSA vs ASU -17 to -18.5 ASU took sharp
Akron vs Nebraska -20.5 to -24 Nebraska I Disagree with the move
Totals:
Tulane vs Wake Forest 61 to 56 but sharp on the Over
Syracuse vs Western Michigan 64 to 64.5 Over
Utah State vs Michigan State 50.5 to 49.5 but sharps on over
Ole Miss vs Texas Tech 62 to 67.5 but Sharps on the under
Washington vs Auburn 54 to 48.5 Sharps hit under
UNLV vs USC 60 to 62.5 but Sharps on the Under
Middle Tennesee St vs Vanderbilt – 57.5 to 57 but sharps on the Over
BYU vs Arizona 62.5 to 60.5 Sharps on under but I am not touching
Most Lopsided move West Virginia +9.5 to -10
If there is a look ahead spot it would be Iowa cause they host Iowa state next week but that didn’t work last year
The strength of both of these team relies on the offensive side of the Ball. Wake Forest is returning 74% of offensive production.Tulane brings back 86% of their offensive production. On the flip side Wake Forest returns 69% on D and Tulane only brings back 44% of production. An immediate red flag for me.Willie Fritz option attack should give the Wake Forest defense all it can handle with experienced Jonathan Banks under center and a plethora of talent around him what does not bode well for Wake is that teams averaged over 185 ypg on the ground. Wake Forest will be relying on backup quarterback Sam Hartman who will be filling for their suspended quarterback of 3 games. Reports out of Wake Forest are Sam is accurate and trust his arm. In my preview of the AAC I said the youngest part of Tulane defense will their Secondary. The Over/Under is currently set at 55 (-110). I easily see 60 points happening in this game. I’ll take a 1 unit play on the Over.
