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ACC Week 1 Free Plays

By
Dan Everett
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North Carolina @ California (-7)

North Carolina and Cal return a similar number in production on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. This game should play out a lot like last year, but Cal should have an improved defense. North Carolina also has 3 starters suspended including their starting QB and 2 defensive linemen. Couple that with the huge travel spot across the country for North Carolina and this game does not line up well for them. Justin Wilcox will have this Cal team ready to go. Take Cal -7 for 2U & Under 61 for 1U.

 

Virginia Tech @ Florida State (-7.5)

These two teams are extremely close in returning production on offense with Virginia Tech returning 68% and Florida State returning 74%. Virginia Tech returns a bit more on defense with 64% vs Florida State’s 46%. This is the one spot that Virginia Tech should have an advantage. Bud Foster always has his defense up for challenging spots.

When you look at the depth chart, there’s an equal amount of inexperience on both sides. Virginia Tech starts 5 underclassmen on offense and 4 on defense. Florida State is starting 4 underclassmen on offense and 6 on defense. Also, total stats from last year ring pretty close with Virginia Tech’s offense averaging 412.8 yards per game and 5.39 yards per play. Florida State averaged 351.9 yards per game and 5.66 yards per play. One thing to watch here is that Willie Taggert wants to implement a higher tempo offense than what Jimbo Fisher had. We’ll see if that’s a help to their offense or a hindrance to their defense.

With the returning production being so close, the depth charts being virtually even, and last year’s stats being pretty even, I don’t see a blowout here. This should be a very close, well contested game. The team that wins will have better QB play and better defensive play. Josh Jackson should have a better year as the returning starter for Virginia Tech. It will be interesting to see what happens with Deondre Francois as he comes back as Florida State’s starter after missing all of last year. I see this being a 3-6 point game at most. Take Virginia Tech +7.5 for 1U.

Podcast 36 – 2018 – College Football Week 1 Picks! – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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NCAA football is finally back and we are ready to get things going!!!   Kiev O’Neil @thepublicdog breaks down his college football picks for week 1.   He also goes over the sharp action report and line movement that has happened over the summer for these week 1 college football lines.

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Wyoming vs New Mexico State

By
Tito
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Wyoming Vs New Mexico State
Value in Week O is on Wyoming going into their opener against New Mexico St. I expect NM St to take some time to gel on offense returning only 41% of offensive production. Also, Wyoming strength is in their defense where they return almost 75% of production. I don’t expect this Wyoming team to suffer without Josh Allen as they return 79% of offensive production. NM St is returning 80% of production on defense but that same defense let up almost 400 yards per game. Tyler Vander Waal will take over under center, he’s no Josh Allen but you don’t need to be to win games against group of 5 competition. Expect Craig Bohl to run the ball often and allow Tyler to take safe throws that will build confidence in his true freshman quarterback. Take Wyoming at -4. 1 star play

Top BIG-12 players to watch

By
Eddie Owens
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1. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown (Oklahoma)- Checking in at 5-11, 162lbs Junior. He is going to be very fun to watch this year. I’ve seen him play up live, up close & personal, this kid has some of the best route running skills & hands I’ve ever seen. Be sure to keep an eye out for him as Kyler Murray looks to find him.

2. Shawn Robinson (TCU) – Dual threat mobile quarterback, who has plenty of size & an arm to come with it. He’s coming into his true sophomore year at weighing 228 & standing 6-2. Now there’s plenty of hype already heading into the 2018 season with this team, as he’ll look forward to taking on the competitive Big12 conference.

3. Justice Hill (Oklahoma State) – This highly talented back standing 5-10 & packing 185lbs comes into the 2018 season more hungry than ever. With expectations falling short last year, Hill looks to have another great season at running back & as well at slot WR.

College Football Week 0 Pick 2

By
Dan Everett
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Hawaii vs Colorado St -14.5. Hawaii comes in to this year with a pretty young roster. They have 5 underclassmen starters on offense and 3 on defense. Hawaii returns 58% production on offense, 74% on defense and 66% overall. This doesn’t mean much as they were a very bad team last year going 3-9 overall and 1-10-1 ATS. On the other hand, Colorado State returns the lowest production numbers in all of college football with 27% on offense, 44% on defense and 35% overall. The difference for Colorado State is that they have a grad transfer QB in K.J. Carta-Samuels who transfered in from Washington. This along with a mostly upperclassmen starters on offense and in the defensive backfield, they should be able to pick up where they left off last year. Mike Bobo will also be coaching the team in the opener after his hospital stay for peripheral neuropathy. That should give Colorado State another reason to be dominant in their home opener. Need more convincing? Since 2016, Hawaii is 7-17-1 ATS overall and 4-8 ATS on the road. Colorado State stomped Hawaii last year 51-21 and have won the last 7 in a row. Colorado State has won the last 4 meetings by an average of 19.75 points. I don’t see much changing this year. Look for Colorado State to cover -14.5 points and roll in this one. Take Colorado State -14.5 for 2U.

College football week 0 pick

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Wyoming vs NM state +3.5

Ok both teams have  new QBs so nothing much there.   New Mexico State tho definitly has some motivation.   They were kicked out of the Sunbelt and this is their first year as an independant school.    I believe the line move from +5 to +3.5 is due to that.   They should be motivated and its a numbers grab for a home dog…   The problem with this team is that they only return 62% production with only 41% on offense and 83% on defense.    NM State was good enough to make a bowl game last year and should be motivated.   The problem here is the conference.   While the Mac is looked at as one the better group of 5, the Sun belt is looked at as one of the worst and that didn’t bode well for the Aggies.   On the other side of the coin, Wyoming returns a ton of production on offense at 79% fresh off that double digit bowl win over Central Michigan.   Tyler Vaner Waal will be at the helm throwing to some experienced skill position players.   Wyoming also returns a defense allowing only 17.5 PPG and 4.7 yards per play.   I also think its a little to early for Wyoming to be looking ahead to WASU.   Power ratings say Wyoming -5.5    Taking Wyoming -3.5

Podcast recap with Chris Fallica of ESPN College Gameday

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Podcast Recap with the BEAR Chris Fallica
1. Now that sports wagering is legal (i like to call it sports wagering because its not as much gambling if you know what you are doing over time), what is your opinion on how its been rolled out so far in the legalized states?   Some bad lines came out right away and it might be best to partner with other people in areas to get the best lines.   People need to learn to only use disposable income for sports betting.
2. Is the SEC West still the best division in football?  ESPN’s FPI says so but it is so close to the Big 10 east that it doesn’t really matter at this point.
3. Let’s get into some of these future prices?   Florida State has great value to win the ACC at 10-1.   Penn State has pretty good value at 6-1.   Stanford has more Value at 3.3 -1 than Washington at even money to win the Pac 12.   Utah has lots of value in the Pac 12 South.   Florida has more value than South Carolina.
Kiev’s Picks:  Cal at 28-1 to win Pac 12 and 750-1 ncaa championship.   Wisconsin 30-1 NCAA Champtionship and 4-1 Big 10.   Mich State 65-1 to win NCAA Championship and 10-1 big 10.   Penn state 36-1 NCAA Championship.   Texas 40-1 NCAA Champtionship.   Florida 100-1 NCAA Championship and 14-1 to win SEC.   Miami 6.5-1 to win ACC and 50-1 to win Championship.   Buffalo 11-1 to win the MAC.   Arizona 4-1 to win Pac 12 south and 120-1 to win NCAA Championship.   Florida Atlantic 1000-1 to win NCAA Championship.   Lots of these have hedging opportunities.  
4. Do you have a sleeper team this year that can impress ATS or make a suprising run?   Georgia Southern will have some value improving this year with new coach Chad Lunsford going back to the Triple Option.   Buffalo will have some value.   
Kiev Likes:   Buffalo

Podcast 35 – 2018 – Kelly In Vegas – College and NFL Football – Westgate Super Contest an more! – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sports Betting
Sports Betting and Wagering

We are very excited to have Kelly Stewart from @kellyinvegas from @wagertalk to break down some College and NFL football teams that may be coming into the season with some value ATS or possibly ones that we may look to fade!   We also discuss Kelly’s amazing Proxy service for the Westgate Super Contest, The Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge as well as William Hill’s College Pick’Em.  Should you need a proxy service PLEASE visit http://proxy.kellyinvegas.com/ or contact Kelly @kellyinvegas

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Podcast 34 of 2018 – The Bear Necessities of the College Football Futures Market with Chris Fallica – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sports Betting
Sports Betting and Wagering

ESPN College Game Day’s “The Bear” Chris Fallica helps us find VALUE in the NCAA futures market.   Chris and Kiev cover every power 5 conference and team futures odds in winning their side of their respective conferences as well as the NCAA Championship.   They also get a little bit into some teams in the group of 5 that may have some futures value as well.    Please follow us on twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog @chrisfallica

Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, Stanford, California, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, Florida State, UCF, Florida Atlantic, Boise State, Buffalo and more

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Podcast 33 Recap with Doug Upstone – NFL Season Totals

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Doug Upstone – Owner and Lead Handicapper at  VegasProInsidersDaily.com  
No.1 in 2018 at VegasTopDogs.com
Decorated Handicapping expert with documented 21 No.1 titles in all the major sports over 75 Top 10’s.
Doug has written articles in Places like  New York Post.com, Sportsbookreview.com, Covers.com, Playbook.com, Daily Racing Form, StatFox.com, and Sportsbook.ag.
@vegasproinsider on twitter
You can read the material website or follow on YouTube –  Doug Upstone Free Picks and Predictions
Let’s touch on the full NFL but just teams that you think will have some value ATS or totals.
Giants over 6.5 wins
Steelers over 10.5 wins
Jacksonville over 9 wins
Colts under 6.5 wins
Chargers over 9.5 wins
Raiders under 8 wins
Eagles over 10.5 wins
Vikings over 10 wins
Packers over 10 wins
Comeback player of the year
Odell Beckham
First Coach to be fired
Jay Gruden
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