We have a great show for you today! @thepublicdog Kiev O’Neil discusses the Urban Meyer situation. We then we break down the Pac 12 with special guest Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks discussing season win totals, futures as well as schedules. At the end of the show, Kyle discusses a few teams that may play football at a different pace than in 2017.
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The American Athletic Conference is sort of like the little brother that you only want around when it is convenient for you. For instance, when you need a tougher out of conference opponent that won’t destroy your strength of schedule like a North Carolina A&T would. Also it’s nice to look at the conference when you need a new coach that is dying to get into or back into the Power 5 coaching rankings. However, sometimes the little brother surprises you and leaves you sitting back on Saturday going how the hell did we lose that game. The American is by far the 6th strongest conference in the NCAA and they play a great brand of football.
Notable Coaching Changes
UCF- Scott Frost is going back to his Alma Mater Nebraska. He leaves behind a great deal of talent for the former Missouri offensive coordinator Josh Huepel. Josh will look to continue the no huddle and while adding a more vertical attack.
SMU- With Chad Morris of to Arkansas, Sonny Dykes will step in with his Air Raid offense in SMU. Sonny Dykes roots were built-in Texas. Could he be the guy to turn around the program?
AAC East
UCF– Last Season 13-0, Over/Under 9 wins
The University of Central Florida will be a team on a mission this season. They feel snubbed that they didn’t get their chance to play for the National Title after a Cinderella season. UCF finished 13-0 after a Peach Bowl win over Auburn. Mckenzie Milton is back who boasted a 37-9 TD / INT ratio is one of the best Quarterbacks in college. Big names like Mike Hughes, Shaquem Griffin and Tre’quan Smith are gone but this team won’t miss a beat and are priced accordingly. The Schedule is favorable for them to run the table with AAC west games against Memphis (possible AAC Championship preview) and Navy. UCF’s out of conference schedule includes SC State, UNC, FAU, and Pitt. Expect UCF to do great work against this schedule and compete for a chance at the National Championship worst case scenario a New Years 6 Bowl. Bet the Over.
USF- Last Season 10-2, Over/Under 8.5 wins
If USF can match last seasons success and finish either 10-2 or 9-3 they may be saying goodbye again to another coach as Charlie Strong will be a candidate that will be atop of a lot of AD’s interview list. They are not returning a ton of offense mostly due to Quinton Flowers graduating and heading into the NFL. Former Alabama and Arizona St. QB transfer Blake Barnett should get the first crack at the starting job. At RB they will look to Jordan Cronkrite to carry the load along with Elijah Mack. After they get done beating up against Elon in week 1 their week 2 matchup against Georgia Tech could tell us everything we need to know about this team. Other notable out of division games include Illinois, and Houston. Realistically 9-3 is most likely. I like the over but will look to play a lot of their Over/Under if the market drastically has drastically for the loss of Flowers and Company.
Temple- 7-6 last season, Over/Under 6.5 wins
The first season from their new head coach Geoff Collins started like a bad nightmare. A blowout loss to Notre Dame to start the season, and an extremely close win against cross city rival Villanova (FCS School). They had an unimpressive win against UMass and then they were blown out by USF in primetime. Mid-season Geoff Collins decided to sit starter Logan Marchi and turn the offense over to Frank Nutile and things improve quickly as went on win 5 out of their last 6.. For 2018 they get back injury ridden RB Ryquell Armstead who is very dangerous. On defense a name to watch is Quincy Roche. As a backup last year Quincy recorded 7 sacks. Out of conference games against Nova, Buffalo, Maryland and Boston College. On the other side of the conference they got lucky with Tulsa but draw Houston and Navy. I said it on the podcast I am high on this team I think Geoff Collins knows what he is doing and I see him as the type to try to build a program. I would avoid going on either side but catching a future at +1500 is worth it with the ability to hedge out late for profit is worth it.
Cincinnati- 4-8 last season, Over/Under 5 wins
2nd year coach Luke Fickell is back and this team keeps on building. A great team to play against last year as they were 4-8 ATS. Fickell will return his top weapons with Hayden Moore, Gerrid Doaks, and Kahlil Lewis. Fickell has been doing a great job of bringing in talent and convincing that talent to stay home. With young talent comes growing pains and I expect that to continue for Cincinnati. Tough out of conference games against UCLA. Miami OH, Ohio but at least they have Alabama A&M. Looking at the rest of their schedule they look like a 4 win team. If you find a 5.5 Under take it otherwise avoid.
ECU- 3-9 Last season, Over / Under 3.5 wins
Scott Montgomery is officially on the hot seat at least in my eyes. At 6-18 over the past few seasons he needs to right this Pirate ship asap. Their offensive MVP is Trevon Brown, has over 100 career catches and almost 2000 receiving yards. On their schedule out of conference they have to play UNC, Virginia Tech, Old Dominion and NC A&T. At Least A&T is a for sure win. The only other possible winnable games on the schedule are Connecticut and Old Dominion. Take the Under.
UCONN- 3-9 Last Season,Over/Under 3.5 Wins
Randy Edsall is back and showed a glimmers of hope last season when they beat Temple in AAC action. David Pindell will get the nod at QB after being replaced last season and winning back the job. Out of conference schedule is tough Boise State, Rhode Island. Syracuse and Umass. They Should beat Rhode Island, ECU and UMass. Would need to pull an upset over another team like they did last season. I would avoid this over under.
AAC West
Memphis 10-3 Last Year, Over/Under 8.5 Wins
If Mike Norvell has another great year in Memphis we should expect the Athletic Directors from the Power 5 conferences knocking down his door. A QB battle is expected between David Moore and ASU transfer Brady White after Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller no longer lead the offense. Memphis is very deep at their skill positions with Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor and Tony Pollard. Returning good production on the defensive side of the football. A very weak out of conference schedule with Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama. One interesting out of conference game is when they travel to Missouri. We already love the over in that game. My prediction for this team is 9-3 but could easily win 10 or 11. I would pass on this one more value to come.
Houston- 7-5 last season, Over / Under 7.5
Major Apple will look to bring Houston back to the top of the AAC. When looking at the roster one name stands out clearly and that is Ed Oliver. The defensive line man is expected to go top 5 in the draft. I can honestly say I am excited to see what D’Eriq King will do with a full season under center. Terrance Williams a grad transfer will get the lion share of the carries at running back. Out of conference they will be playing Rice, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Texas Southern. There 2nd game against Arizona will tell a lot about Houston season. I think there is value in the OVER here wouldn’t go large but is worth a play.
Navy- 7-6 last season, Over / Under 7 wins
Ken Niumatalolo is the most tenured coach in the conference and didn’t leave Navy for the Arizona job. They return two separate quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards but Malcolm Perry will run the offense and Zach Abbey will move over to play WR. The schedule is set up for them to win some really easy games Out of conference they will be playing Hawaii, Lehigh, Air Force, Notre Dame and Army. Bet the Over.
SMU- 7-6 last season, Over/Under 5.5 wins
Chad Morris is out and insert Sonny Dykes who is known for his prolific passing attack. Leading the attack will be Ben Hicks who is coming off his best season yet. Hicks will have plenty of talent surrounding him at running back. After Courtland Sutton left for the NFL Draft it leaves a big hole at wide receiver. Out of conferences games at North Texas, TCU, Michigan and Southern Baptist. Bet the Under.
Tulane 5-7 last year, Over / Under 5.5
Will Fritz will look to keep the momentum going that his team formed towards the end of last season. Last season resume included an upset over Houston and barely missing a bowl game. Jonathan Banks will be under center will need to step up more than ever for this team to be successful. However, this team has a lot to replace on defense. Their out of conference schedule includes Wake Forest, Nicholls State, UAB, and Ohio State. With the amount of freshmen and sophomores expected to play valuable minutes I see this as a team to Bet The Under On.
Tulsa- 2-10 last season, Over / Under 4.5
Philip Montgomery remains two keep components to this offense with Luke Skipper at Quarterback and Shamari Brooks at running back. They return a good portion of the offensive line. Montgomery did want to jumpstart the improvement on defense and brought in a good amount of JUCO talent that will keep for starting jobs. Out of conference games against Central Arkansas, Texas, Arkansas State and Arkansas. I honestly only see 2 obvious wins on the schedule with Uconn, and Central Arkansas. Tulane is the only game on the schedule that is probably around a pick’em. Every other game on the schedule Tulsa should be the dog. I love the Under.
We have a great show for you today breaking down the AAC with our specialist Uncle Tito! We discuss season win totals, futures, and teams that could surprise us this year!
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Welcome back hope you all enjoyed my last preview of the NFC East season win totals. In this article we will be breaking down the NFC South. This will be an exciting conference to follow all season long. Every team in this division has one thing in common and it is veteran leaders at Quarterback. Please feel to check me out on twitter and some of the other pieces I will be working on for The Odds Breakers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 7.5 Wins (-125), Under 7.5 Wins (-105)
I hate to admit this, but I have always had a soft spot for the Buccaneers growing up. My best friend was a huge Bucs fan and loved football more than I did. The odds are stacked against the Bucs this year since they are slated to play 8 teams that made the playoffs this past year. Will Jameis after missing a few games to start the NFL season take the necessary steps this year to leap into the NFL elite squad? Jameis has no shortage of targets between Evans, Desean Jackson,and OJ Howard. They invested a 2nd round pick in Ronald Jones from USC after they shipped out Doug Martin. On defense they took a page from the Philadelphia Eagles, who stole that page from the New York Giants and that move is to invest heavy in the D-line, get after the quarterback, and clog up the running holes. JPP, Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry will be joined up front by the big man Vita Vea.The 6 foot 4 inch and 347 pound rookie Vita will fill up both A gaps and possibly the B gaps. Their LB’s and DB’s are led by Lavonte David, Brent Grimes and Kwon Alexander. The division games are very tough and realistically they will be lucky to survive 2-4 but if they went 1-5 it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to anyone at all. Looking at their non-divisional home games things get a little tough. Visiting sunny Tampa this season will be The 49ers, Redskins, Steelers, Eagles and Browns. As I see it, The Buccaneers should only be favored against the Browns, and the line against the Redskins should be right around a pick’em. Against the 49ers, Eagles and Steelers they could be at least 7 point dogs. On the road they will face the Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Bears and Giants. I see this as 3-4 winnable games for Jameis and company. With Winston expected to be suspended for three games against the Saints, Eagles and Steelers I see them starting 0-3 which can just take the wind out of teams sails. I love the Under 7.5 wins and recommend a play on it.
Atlanta Falcons, Over 9.5 (-125), Under 9.5 (-105)
The Dirty Birds in Atlanta have the offensive firepower to compete with any team in the NFL. They invested heavy in Matt Ryan this past offseason and clearly want to make a run for glory since they added another toy for Ryan to throw the ball to when they drafted Calvin Ridley in Rd. 1 of the NFL Draft. At any moment the Falcons could have Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman all on the field at one time. That is not scary that is an absolute nightmare. Matt Ryan has the potential to set a career high in passing yards this season and I won’t be surprised if he jumps back into the elite conversation after this season. On defense they will need to keep improving and developing. The Falcons will need to hope that Vic Beasley and Takkarist Mckinley can create pressure up front to help a mediocre secondary. In the division the best case scenario is 5-1, however I do believe 4-2 is more realistic. They should take both games with Tampa Bay and could see them splitting with the Saints and Panthers. At home they face a favorable schedule which includes the Ravens, Cardinals, Bengals, Giants and Cowboys. They should be favorites in all of these games. 5-0 could very well happen but on the safe side because of variance I will say 4-1. Things get a little tougher on the road when they face the Eagles, Redskins, Packers, Browns and Steelers. The Falcons should enter the games against the Redskins and Browns as at least 7 point favorites. I think they will be small dogs against the Eagles and Packers. The Pittsburgh game would not surprise me if it opens right around a pick. ( Side note: I already love the over in that game already and I don’t know the total.) On the safe side of things 3-2 very easy to see but once again 4-1 is very doable for what should be a high-powered offensive juggernaut. -125 isn’t that enough juice for me to stay away from this line. I love the Over 9.5 and recommend a play on it.
Carolina Panthers, Over 8.5 wins (-120), Under 8 (-110)
Is Cam Newton is overrated? I look up and down at this offense and I think to myself, wow they are just not that impressive compared to the rest of the division. Cam Newton will keep you in games, but I do not think he holds the clutch gene to get it done. At RB they will hopefully turn over all the keys to Christian McCaffrey but something tells me they want to see if CJ Anderson still has some gas left in the tank. Greg Olsen is an elite TE and gives Cam another solid resource to pair with McCaffrey. Rookie DJ Moore better be all he billed up to be since the teammates surrounding him are average players at best sorry Torrey Smith and Devin Funchess. On defense the strength is the core at Linebacker, Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. Seeing those 3 names together I am kind of impressed. They added Poe for their DL, Cockrell at CB, (much better player than people think). They also brought back Julius Peppers and drafted Donte Jackson CB from LSU who some thought may be a reach. In terms of the division they will either end finishing these games 3-3 or 2-4. Coming to visit Carolina this year we have New York Giants, Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens and Seahawks. They should beat the Giants no problem. The Cowboys, Bengals and Seahawks should have the Panthers set at small favorites and see them being about a pick against the Ravens. I would say they finish these home games 3-2. A tough slate on the road against the Eagles,. Redskins, Lions and Steelers. Oh yeah they play the Browns as well but that should we a win along with their matchup against the Redskins. They lose the Steelers and Eagles game and the matchup against the Lions is a toss-up that I’ll lean Lions on their home field. All that being said gets them to 2-3. I don’t see any value in this number either way I am and recommending you stay away.
New Orleans Saints, Over 9.5 wins (-140), Under 9.5 wins (+100)
In all seriousness, the Saints made the most questionable move in the draft by trading up to select DE Marcus Davenport. I enjoyed Marcus’ tape prior to the draft and love when elite players on lower level teams get a chance to be noticed. I noticed one thing when watching the NFC Divisional game against the Vikings and that was they should have invested some talent at cornerback. Granted a freak play, but at 5 foot 8 inches I think I make that tackle at least push Diggs out-of-bounds. On offense Brees may have lost a yard and some zip on his pass but he is still Drew Brees and will get it done by any means necessary especially when you have the talent like Brees does surrounding him. Alvin Kamara should continue to excel in his early career and look for Tre’Quan Smith out of UCF to make an immediate impact. The Saints have never been a great team on defense, but did improve drastically last season. It may not be necessary for them to be great when they can put up points they way do. In the division, I think they take both games from Tampa and split the season series against the Falcons and Panthers. That leaves them 4-2 heading into out of division play. I will say the schedule isn’t easy. Home matchups versus the Eagles, Redskins, Steelers, Rams and Browns. We will get the obvious wins out-of-the-way with the Redskins and Browns. The Eagles get the Saints after a bye week and I am not one to bet against any coach from the Andy Reid coaching tree after a bye week, so I will put the matchup against the Eagles as a loss. I think they lose one of the games against the Saints and or Steelers. On the road the travel to play the Vikings, Cowboys. Giants, Ravens and Bengals. At worst they finish 3-2 but could easily be 4-1. The only games I question are the Cowboys and Vikings. I love this Over 9.5. The juice is high but it’s worth laying.
Fantasy Football is back!!!! The public dog @thepublicdog and our fantasy guy D-Nasty @dnastyfantasy breaks down the fantasy football PPR pre-rankings per position for your snake fantasy draft. We cover underrated players, overrated players and SLEEPERS! We had some connection issues during this interview so apologies for the muffled voice at times…
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Hey everyone just wanted to let you know how excited I am to be working with this great team. I am a huge follower of the NFL, Baseball, NCAA Football and Basketball. I look forward to helping readers find the most value in the market and adding more cash to your bankrolls. I wanted to examine the NFL season win totals and explain were the most value can be found. I will start in the NFC East and work around the league.
The NFC East will play the NFC South and AFC South this upcoming season. Not a good draw as both divisions will be very competitive especially the NFC South which had 3 playoff teams.
Dallas Cowboys, Over 8 (-115), Under 8 (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys walk into the 2018 NFL season as the 2nd best team on paper in the NFC East which isn’t saying much. They feature a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot and offensive line that could easily be considered the best in football. Dak Prescott looks to bounce back in his 3rd season without former go to options Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant. On defense Sean Lee and company will look to cut down on the amount of yards and points given up per game. In terms of the division, the Cowboys should have two losses to the Eagles and most likely will split the season series with the Redskins and Giants which puts them at 2-4. They have a rough out of division schedule for their road games this year; they will face the Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Texans and Colts. I expect the Cowboys to be able to control the clock with their run game against Seattle and the Panthers. Also, I believe they should finish no worse than 2-3. At home they get the Saints, Buccaneers, Lions, Jaguars and Titans. The Bucs should be a win for the Cowboys. The Lions, Saints, and Titans are toss-up games. They will not be favored against the Jaguars and should lose that game. If I had to lean I would go with the Under, however, I do not see too much value in this total.
New York Giants, Over 7 (-120), Under 7 (-110)
The New York Giants went into the 2018 off-season in full on rebuild mode. They fired Head Coach Ben McAdoo and General Manager Reese and have brought in Pat Shurmur as Head Coach and Dave Gettleman to serve as the Gm. Shurmur will look to make the Giants offense less one-dimensional with their new toy, Saquon Barkley, veteran Eli Manning along with a hopefully healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and Co. On the defensive side of the ball they will be switching to a 3-4 defense and look to turn around their defense that often times looked like it had given up during most of the games towards the end of the season. In terms of the schedule, the Giants got it bad. They will not be favored when facing the Eagles and could sneak out a win against the Cowboys and Redskins which leaves them sitting at best 2-4 but could easily end up at 1-5. At Metlife stadium, the Giants get the Buccaneers, Saints, Bears, Jaguars and Titans. This is a tough schedule for the Giants at home. They will most likely only be small favorites at home probably against the Buccaneers and Bears. At best they sneak out of this 2-3. The road schedule is even tougher having to go to Atlanta, Carolina, San Fran, Houston and Indy. I could see the Giants easily losing 4 of these games on the road. The UNDER 7 is more than lean and is STRONG PLAY as I see them struggling to get to 5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles, Over 10 (-130), Under 10 (+100)
The NFL Champs are back and Carson Wentz should be healthy but if not, who cares right? They have Nick Foles and God all in one locker room. In all seriousness the Eagles didn’t lose much on offense beside Torrey Smith who they replace with Mike Wallace. LeGarrette Blount is off to Detroit which will allow Ajayi to own the backfield. Carson Wentz is expected to be healthy and most likely would have been the MVP if not for a season ending injury against the Rams. The Eagles should own their NFC East games and could sweep all of their games, and at worst only lose 1 game leaving them with 5 wins. At home, the Eagles will face the Falcons, Panthers, Vikings, Texans and Colts. The Eagles should be favored in every home game this season. The week one matchup against the Falcons could be a let-down spot as they reveal the championship banner to the fans. At worst the Eagles leave these games 3-2 but could go 4-1. On the road, the Birds will travel to New Orleans, Tampa, LA, England(against the Rams) and the Titans. The only game they may not be favored for is the LA Rams game. The Eagles should at worst escape 3-2 but could easily be 4-1. The Philadelphia Eagles easily should be a 12-4 or 13-3 team. There is a ton of value in the OVER 10 wins and I am recommending a play on it.
Washington Redskins, Over 6 (-140), Under 6 (+110)
The Washington Redskins head into the season facing more questions than answers. Head Coach Jay Gruden has a new man under center with Alex Smith now leading the team at quarterback. However, they face many question marks on the offensive side of the ball, how will rookie running back Derrius Guice do as a lead back in his rookie year? Can Jordan Reed stay healthy or will he spend more time on the sideline? Are Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson enough? Only time will tell but one thing has been a constant about Alex Smith, he wins games and is 88-62-1 as a starter. This is very good compared to Kirk Cousins who was 26-30-1. On Defense, you guessed it, more question marks. On defense for them to succeed Ryan Kerrigan needs to keep playing like the three-time Pro Bowler that he is. On the defensive line, can Jonathan Allen come back from IR and play like the first rounder he was drafted as? In terms of the NFC East, they won’t be favored in their games versus the Eagles and I expect them to go 0-2. Splitting the season series with the Cowboys and Giants is right where I expect them to be. Leaving division play they should be 2-4. I do feel bad for the Redskins season ticket holders having to see the Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Texans and Colts. I don’t believe they will be favored in any of these games and at best are either 2-3, buy 1-4 or 0-5 seem way more likely. On the road the Redskins travel to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Jacksonville and Tennessee. Count New Orleans, and Jacksonville as losses and Tampa, Arizona and Tennessee are toss-up games. Best case 3-2, worst case 1-4, but most likely 2-3. If I had to lean it would be to the Over strictly to variance of expected win probability. However, it is just a lean. Pass on this one for more value to come in other divisions.
Today we have a very special guest Mr. Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards from Vegasinsider.com, Games Galore Podcast and Brianedwardssports.com to preview and break down the 2018 SEC teams from a season win total and a scheduling perspective. We discuss against popular thought that Florida may NOT be the number 2 best team in the SEC east as well as which teams could be under and over valued within the conference. We also uncover a trend with Alabama that you must consider when handicapping this team. Here is a link to Brian’s GOY plays: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1928397
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@thepublicdog updates us on which states have passed legislation on legalized sports betting. Dan @dedgesportspicks is back to break down the ACC! We discuss which teams should be great, which teams are over-rated, and who is the sleeper this year! Season win totals and future bets are discussed as well. #collegefootball #ACC #NCAA Football
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