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MLB Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting – Padres vs Diamondbacks
Padres vs Diamondbacks -164 O/U 9.5
Game Overview
- Date: June 14, 2025
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Team Performance
- Diamondbacks: Currently on a five-game home win streak, with a 35-34 overall record and 19-17 at home. They boast the third-best team slugging percentage in MLB (.449).
- Padres: Holding a 38-30 overall record, they are 17-18 on the road. They have a strong 27-7 record when out-hitting opponents.
Key Players
- Diamondbacks:
- Corbin Carroll: 12 doubles, 8 triples, 20 home runs, 44 RBIs.
- Ketel Marte: 13-for-35 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in the last 10 games.
- Padres:
- Luis Arraez: 15 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs.
- Manny Machado: 17-for-42 with a double and 3 home runs in the last 10 games.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup (ERA & FIP)
Starting Pitchers
- Padres: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 1.26 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 14.1 IP)
- Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (4-8, 5.15 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 80.1 IP).
Advanced Metrics (FIP)
- Ryan Bergert (SD): His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.34 suggests his ERA is misleadingly low due to an unsustainable 96% left-on-base rate. He has walked six batters and struck out eight, indicating potential regression.
- Zac Gallen (ARI): His FIP of 4.90 aligns closely with his ERA, showing that his struggles are not just bad luck but a result of inconsistent pitching. His strikeout rate remains solid, but he has been vulnerable to hard contact.
Bullpen Comparison
- Padres: Ranked third in MLB with a 3.81 ERA, their bullpen has been a key factor in close games.
- Diamondbacks: Their bullpen has been less reliable, with a 4.00 ERA, struggling in late-game situations.
Weather:
None – Domed Stadium
Prediction:
The total on this game is sky high due to bad pitching. What’s even more glaring is that snake’s pitcher Zac Gallen has been just awful this year with a FIP of 4.9. It’s not like Padres Pitcher Ryan Bergert has been much better, but the Padres have the much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to 28th for the Snakes. I will give the overall hitting advantage to the Diamondbacks for now, but that should even out this price to be closer to pick-em rather than plus money for the Padres. Take the Dad’s the day before Fathers day!
Padres +141 – 1 star
Friday MLB Free Play – Fishy First Five
Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June has been less than stellar to start. For the season we currently sit at 60-66-38 -4.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays. Today’s being one of those.
My Analysis today turns to Nationals Park in Washington DC where the Washington Nationals (30-38) will host the Miami Marlins (25-41) at 6:45 ET. The current line sits with the Nationals as slight favorites at -110 (Marlins +105) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -120. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 5mph.
The Marlins have struggled as of late losing 8 of 10 since June began and scoring just 3.4 runs per game. The Nationals also have dropped 8 of their last ten albeit against much better competition than the fish.
Miami starts Edward Cabrera on the bump hoping for good things to happen tonight and for the rest of the season for him. He hasn’t completed a full season in the bigs without injury thus far. After a rough start to the season coming off the IL with a 7.23 ERA in April he has only allowed seven earned runs since then. His peripherals have been solid in lining up with his ERA as he sports a 3.99 mark. His BABIP allowed is at .336 so there is also some positive regression coming for him. He is still striking out over a batter an innings and his walk rate is the lowest of his career at 3.81 batter per nine innings.
On the other side the Nats will run our Mitchell Parker. A lefty who doesn’t strike out many hitters. He has a 4.44 ERA, but has been extremely lucky so far with a HR% against at just 6.6% and a BABIP allowed at .255. He’s got some rough waters coming his way yet as the numbers even out for the season. He is only striking out 5.96 hitters per nine innings and walks 3.55. Up until his start Saturday against the Rangers he had allowed 3+ earned runs in seven straight starts.
So what’s the angle? The offenses are very similar with Miami holding a .690 OPS and Washington a .687. So it boils down to quite simply, Cabrera is the better guy on the mound. While both pitchers allow their share of hard contact, Cabrera can recover with the K, where Parker struggles in that department. Parker got 12 ground ball outs in his first meeting with Miami (Ironically enough these same pitchers opposed each other in that game back in April) and that is highly unlikely to repeat itself. Cabrera’s biggest weakness is walks, and the Nats are 26th in MLB in that department. I look for Cabrera to hopefully get through a decent five innings with a lead and then all bets are off as both of these bullpens are atrocious. (Miami 25th in MLB 4.66 ERA, Nationals 29th in MLB 5.70 ERA). – Maybe Live bet the over in the 5th.
Marlins F5 -120 for 2 Units
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AFC South 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting
The AFC South – The AFC South is the most agonizing division in the NFL. In the beginning of the season, the Titans blew a massive 17 point lead to the Bears, all during the second half. They also choked the next few games away as well. The Jaguars were grossly incompetent as well in choking away their first two games, while the Colts continue to have quarterback issues. The Texans once again had it pretty easy last season, and it didn’t take much for them to slither into the playoffs. This season, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC West, which is tricky as due to more travel. Can the Texans keep their number one spot? Are the Jaguars ever going to play up to their talent? Can the Colts rush their way into the playoffs? How bad will the Titans be this season? Let’s dive in.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins – 1 star
Division Winner: Texans +115 – Jags +260 – Colts +380 – Titans +650
1. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore, vs Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: T Laremy Tunsil, G Kenyon Green, WR Stephon Diggs (didn’t play much), S Eric Murray, CB Jeff Okudah, QB Case Keenum, WR Robert Woods, G Shaq Mason.
Key additions: WR Christian Kirk, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, T Cam Robinson, CB Tremon Smith, LB Nick Niemann, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Justin Watson, G Laken Tomlinson, CB Ronald Darby.
Key Draft Picks: WR Jayden Higgins, T Aireontae Ersery.
Summary: The Texans were once again very busy in free agency. Some analysts were shocked that they decided to trade tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Kenyon Green. This team was poor at protecting CJ Stroud, so changes had to be made. Dumping wide receiver Stephon Diggs is already proving to be the right move here in the offseason. Most importantly, this team didn’t have to be great to make the playoffs ranking only 21st in offensive EPA. Their defense certainly helped carry the way ranking 6th in overall EPA, and I do not see them taking a step back on that side of the ball, especially with a defensive minded coach like Demeco Ryans. I like how this team added slot receiver Christian Kirk. Wide receivers Nico Collins & Tank Dell should finally be back healthy, and I expect some big improvement this year in the offense. The Texan’s schedule doesn’t set up too bad for a first place team. There really isn’t all that much more to say about Houston. They made all the right moves. I think that this team could be the one of the best teams that nobody is talking about in the AFC.
My Number: 10.25
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.25
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.42
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Carolina, @ Cincinnati, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: HC Doug Peterson, TE Evan Engram, S Andre Cisco, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, CB Ronald Darby, G Brandon Sherff.
Key additions: HC Liam Coen, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Jourdain Lewis, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, WR Dyami Brown, T Chuma Edoga.
Key Draft Picks: WR/CB Travis Hunter, CB Caleb Ransaw, T Wyatt Milum, LB Jack Kiser.
Summary: Loving you,… is easy cause your beautiful… Isn’t that how the song goes? Well, this is how the Jags felt when they traded up from number five to get Travis Hunter at number two. Like we know in all relationships, wait until you get to know them. The good news is that I really believe that Travis Hunter is a great guy. Now, that doesn’t mean that he is worth all that this team has given up for him. I mean, what are you doing Jags? Last year’s top wide receiver pick in Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the most phenomenal rookie years that anyone could ask for. So now you get another star that will take catches and targets away from Thomas? Especially when you need so much. The bigger problem with Travis Hunter is that if he is a true unicorn, and can play both ways, doesn’t his chance of getting injured go up as well? Last season at Colorado, Hunter had to take some plays off while on the field due to fatigue. I did see him get burned a few times on defense. Last season, the Jaguars ranked 31st in defensive EPA, and 19th respectively on offense. They needed to get more dudes in the middle to help stop the run. So the biggest change to this team was convincing new head coach Liam Coen to leave Tampa Bay and come across the limestone State to Jacksonville. I honestly do like this hire, and Coen was a huge part of Tampa Bay’s resurgence. Coaching matters greatly in this league, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a good one. I think that this might be the key to the whole season. With a little luck, the Jaguars can possibly make a run at this division. Fair warning, I lose money betting on this Jaguars team every year. I am not going to stop now as maybe it all works out on an easy schedule.
My Number: 8.21
Action – Jaguars over 7.5 wins -115 – 1 star – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +172 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – -1
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.18
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Atlanta (neutral in Berlin),
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Will Fries, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, C Ryan Kelly, K Matt Gay, QB Joe Flacco, LB EJ Speed, TE Kylen Granson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Julian Blackmon.
Key additions: S Camryn Bynum, CB Charvarius Ward, QB Daniel Jones, WR Ashton Dulin, K Spencer Shrader.
Whom they drafted: TE Tyler Warren, Edge JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, QB Riley Leonard, DL Tim Smith.
Summary: What’s the old saying? If you have two quarterbacks, then you have no quarterbacks. As I stated last year, Anthony Richardson is a bust. So what do they do? They pick up another bust from the Giants in Daniel Jones. I honestly do not know what to do with this team. They seem to be wasting the talent of running back half back Jonathan Taylor, and guard Quenton Nelson. Coach Shane Steichen is on the hot seat this year, and he doesn’t have a lot of guys to dig him out. The Offensive line is mid at best, the defense should be half way decent with all of the prospects that they have picked up. The draft pick of Tyler Warren was great, but this team didn’t seem to care to use their tight ends well in the past. I do not see much of a pass rush here to get to the better quarterbacks in this league. The best hope for the Colts is for late round draft pick Riley Leonard to all of a sudden develop an NFL arm. He can at least run the ball pretty well, and if Steichen can keep this offense somewhat simple, maybe, just maybe, they can win eight games again. In saying that, purgatory is what I continue to expect to see in the future for the Colts.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -3
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -150
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.66
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Cleveland, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Quandre Diggs, K Nick Folk.
Key additions: T Dan Moore, LB Cody Barton, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dra’Mont Jones, S Xavier Woods, DT Sebastian Joseph, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, and a ton of cheap dudes.
Key Draft Picks: QB Cam Ward, Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston, WR Chimere Dike.
Summary: I wish I could say that it pays so suck all of the time. The Titans think that they have drafted their franchise quarterback, but I am just not so sure about that. These days in college, sometimes its best to be a big fish in a small pond around a team that paid for their players in a bad football conference. Don’t get me wrong. Cam Ward “might” turn out, but he would not even have been drafted in my top four back in twenty four. In saying all this, it’s hard for the Titans to get any worse from a results perspective as they did last year. Choking away games was their montage and when the season got out of hand, this team just could not keep it close. The good news for this team is that they signed a ton of talent, and decided to spend a bunch of money this year to try and protect their quarterback. Brian Callahan will have to scheme to win a lot of tough games. Now they just need someone to throw the ball to. Who will that be? Um… Yeah. I expect this defense to be a little above average, but we may be looking at the worst offense in football.
My Number: 5.83
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
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Podcast 705 – 41 – 25 – With Joshua Nunn – College Football Group of 5 – AFC East & West Previews – Sports Betting
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Joshua Nunn @StepOnADuck1 is back to break down more pigskin! First, Kiev talks about Sports Betting in Illinois. What now? Next, he gets into the US Open with a few thoughts. Then, we break down the AFC East & AFC West to finish out our NFL previews. Which teams will come out on top!? After that, Josh comes on and the guys get right into the group of five conferences. We start with the AAC and go all the way to the Sun Belt. Plenty of Free Plays and big futures! Kiev also throws out a UFC free play at the end of the show. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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DraftKings “King of the Course” U.S. Open Promo — Strategy + Picks
With $1,000,000 in bonus bets on the line, DraftKings is rolling out its “King of the Course” promo for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Here’s how it works — and more importantly, how you should approach it from a betting strategy standpoint.
How the Promo Works
Place an outright bet on any golfer to win the U.S. Open. If your selection records the most birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4 combined, you’ll earn a share of a $1,000,000 bonus bet pool — regardless of whether they win.
That’s right: your pick doesn’t need to win the tournament; they just need to rack up the most red numbers on the weekend.
Step 1: Pick a Player Who Will Make the Cut
This sounds obvious, but it’s the foundation of the entire promo. If your golfer misses the cut, they won’t be playing Rounds 3 and 4, and your entry is dead.
U.S. Open Cut Rules: Top 60 and ties after 36 holes. That’s a tighter cut line than most PGA Tour events (usually Top 65 and ties), making it even more crucial to target consistent players.
Step 2: Understand Oakmont’s Scoring Landscape
Oakmont is one of the toughest tests in golf, but even the most difficult venues have scoring windows. Let’s break down where birdies are most likely to come from this weekend.
Birdie Hotspots at Oakmont (Based on 2016 Data)
Par 5s
- Hole 4 (611 yards): 98 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 2)
- Hole 12 (632 yards): 77 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 4)
Target stat: Par 5 scoring from 600 to 650 yards
Par 3s
- Hole 3 (182 yards): Birdie or Better Rank: 3 (best chance)
- Hole 6 (231 yards): Rank 7
- Hole 8 (288 yards): Rank 18
- Hole 16 (231 yards): Rank 15
Insight: Birdies are rare on long Par 3s. Hole 3 is your best shot.
Par 4s
- Hole 17 (313 yards): Rank 1
- Hole 2 (340 yards): Rank 5
- Hole 14 (358 yards): Rank 6
- Hole 11 (370 yards): Rank 8
- Hole 5 (382 yards): Rank 9
Target stat: Par 4 scoring from 300 to 400 yards
Step 3: Key Stats to Target
To maximize your odds of winning, the key is finding players who are aggressive, can survive Oakmont’s difficulty, and go low when the putter heats up.
Core Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdies or Better Gained (on difficult scoring conditions)
- Driving Distance (Oakmont stretches over 7,300 yards)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (on Poa annua greens with lightning speed)
- Round 3 and Round 4 Birdies or Better %
Two Strategic Approaches
Strategy 1 — Maximize Birdie Opportunities
Focus on players who can take full advantage of the few scoring holes at Oakmont.
Key stat buckets:
- Par 3 scoring from 175–200 yards
- Par 4 scoring from 300–400 yards
- Proximity from 75–100 yards
- Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards
Ideal profile: Consistent ball-strikers with elite wedges and potential for hot putting rounds.
Strategy 2 — Separate on the Hard Holes
Find players who can steal birdies where most of the field is making pars or worse.
Key stat buckets:
- Par 3 scoring from 225+ yards
- Par 4 scoring from 450–500 yards
- Proximity from 150–175 yards
- Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards
Ideal profile: High-ceiling players with volatility, distance, and the ability to post a 65 out of nowhere.
Other Factors to Consider
Spike Putting Rounds
If you have access to data on streaky putting performances, use it. You only need one or two hot putting rounds — especially on Saturday or Sunday — to win this contest.
Weather Edge
Monitor weekend tee times and forecasts. Morning waves with softer greens or less wind could create ideal birdie chances.
Betting Strategy: Chasing Value
At the top of the odds board, you’ll find the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. They’ll be popular picks in this contest, and rightfully so. These are elite players with a strong chance of posting the most birdies or better over the weekend.
But here’s the catch — the more people who bet on the same player, the smaller the share of that $1,000,000 prize pool you’ll end up with. That’s why we’re taking a different approach.
If your goal is simply to maximize your chances of winning something, then Scheffler or Rory might make sense. But if you’re looking to extract real value, the play is to dig a little deeper down the board.
Let’s reframe how we think about this contest: your $5 outright bet isn’t just a wager for a player to win the US Open — it’s a ticket into a side competition. And in that competition, the only thing that matters is birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4.
So when analyzing the board, I’m not only asking, “Can this guy win the US Open?” I’m more interested in “Can he make enough birdies on the weekend to top the leaderboard in this contest?”
A player might blow up with a triple bogey and fall out of contention for the tournament, but that doesn’t matter here. We don’t care about bogeys. We care about raw scoring upside — birdie-making potential when it counts most.
The key is identifying players with:
- High birdie or better rates
- A strong chance to make the cut
- Low ownership in this specific contest
That’s where the edge lies. We’re not trying to be right about who wins the US Open — we’re trying to be right about who racks up birdies on Saturday and Sunday when most of the field has gone home.
Value Players to Target – Patrick Gates
Sam Burns
Sam Burns enters the U.S. Open off a frustrating playoff loss to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, where his putter proved both a weapon and a weakness. After a stellar final round performance, Burns missed a short putt to win on the first playoff hole, then three-putted on the fourth, ultimately costing him the tournament.
Despite the disappointment, Burns has been playing consistently well. He’s finished T20 or better in five of his last six starts and is showing signs of a positive trend with his iron play. After going ten straight events without gaining strokes on approach, Burns has now done so in three consecutive starts—an encouraging sign as we head into a demanding week at Oakmont.
The strength of Burns’ game remains his putting, and when he finds a groove with the flat stick, he can rack up birdies in a hurry. He also has the distance off the tee to give himself manageable approaches on the longer holes. At the PGA Championship, Burns finished just four birdies off the top mark despite losing strokes on approach. If his recent improvements with the irons continue, he’s a legitimate contender in this DraftKings contest.
On top of that, Burns ranks 10th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season—a valuable stat considering this competition hinges on performance over the weekend.
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka hasn’t yet found his form in the majors this year, but outside of those high-profile starts, he’s quietly put together a stellar 2025 season. With two wins under his belt — at The American Express and the Truist Championship (hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club) — Straka has shown he can contend and close.
He enters this week off a strong third-place finish at the Memorial, giving him a boost of momentum as he heads into Oakmont. Straka’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He may not overpower courses with distance, but he’s one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR — a key trait for positioning on Oakmont’s narrow and demanding fairways.
While his putter was inconsistent earlier in the year, he spiked in both of his wins, gaining +1.93 strokes putting at The American Express and +2.33 at the Truist. More importantly, he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive events, a trend he hadn’t sustained since 2023. If the putter continues to cooperate, he’ll have plenty of birdie looks heading into the weekend.
What really stands out for this DraftKings promo is his weekend scoring ability. Straka ranks 5th in Round 3 scoring average and 18th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season — exactly what we’re targeting for this contest. If he makes the cut, his birdie-making potential on Saturday and Sunday could easily put him in contention for the top prize.
Harris English
Harris English has quietly been one of the most consistent birdie-makers in major championships this season. At the Masters, he recorded 18 birdies, tying for 4th in the field. He matched that total at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where his 18 birdies were tied for 2nd. That kind of scoring upside is exactly what you’re looking for in a contest focused on weekend birdie totals.
He arrives at Oakmont in solid form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines — a long, demanding setup that shares some characteristics with Oakmont in terms of difficulty and shot-making requirements.
English’s game has been steady this season, with most of the week-to-week volatility coming on the greens. That said, when the putter clicks, he tends to contend. In the last five events where he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T18. That kind of spike potential makes him a strong candidate for this unique DraftKings contest. He may not need to contend for the trophy — just catch fire with the putter over the weekend.
Value Players to Target – Jake Sikus
Keegan Bradley
Shines on difficult golf courses tee to green. Top 20 in BoB% on difficult courses last 36 rounds.
Sam Burns
Can get hot with the putter at any moment and drop them in from anywhere. Driver has been fantastic as of late.
Tommy Fleetwood
Was born for the US Open. This isn’t a market that requires him to win the golf tournament and has a ton of history of weekend surges at major championships.
Final Thoughts
This DraftKings promo is a fun and strategic twist on outright betting. It rewards bold picks and sharp weekend analysis. Focus on players with scoring upside, weekend reliability, and the firepower to light up Oakmont’s few scoring windows. If they get hot at the right time, you could take home a share of the million.
Wednesday Free Play Video:
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NBA: Thunder/Pacers
WNBA: Wings/Mercury
MLB: Rangers/Twins
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AFC North 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting
The AFC North in 2024 was not the best division in football, it wasn’t the worst either. I would say that it was the weirdest. The Browns were supposed to be a playoff team, yet they instead threw us a curve and competed quite well for the worst team in NFL football. The Ravens lost some games that they shouldn’t have against the Chiefs and then the Raiders, then they rip off five wins in a row against teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay, just to lose to the Browns on Week eight. The Steelers had the hardest projected schedule that turned out to be not so bad at all, and the Bengals had chose to not care so much about defense. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC North, which I would call medium hard. I feel that there is a big step up from a 3rd place schedule to a 4th place schedule. Let’s see how this pans out on paper.
Best Bets: Steelers under 8.5 wins Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD)
Divisional Odds: Ravens -145 – Bengals +230 – Steelers +550 – Browns +3000
1. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115
2024 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 12.18
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs @Buffalo, vs Houston, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: K Justin Tucker, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens, LB Malik Harrison, T Josh Jones, CB Tre’Davious White, S Marcus Williams
Key additions: QB Cooper Rush, WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Chidobe Awuzie and some special teams guys
Key Draft Picks: S Malaki Starks, Edge Mike Green, T Emery Jones Jr. and some dudes.
Summary: Rinse repeat. The Ravens were once again the best team in football, but alas, once again blew it in the Playoffs. This is why home field advantage is such an attractive deal. Well, that and a few other things that you need to go your way. Last year’s addition of Derek Henry looked pretty genius as he seems to have a lot left in his gas tank. This team is so perfect, yet so flawed when Lamar gets deep into the playoffs. I am not going to sugar coat this. HE HAS TO PLAY BETTER! No turnovers, no sacks and just play the Ravens ballgame. Once again this Baltimore team looks destined for regular season success. I like their draft picks in Edge Mike Green and Safety Malaki Starks. My only pre-season issues is that they shed a few cornerbacks that will hurt them against some of the better offenses in this league. Will it matter as this team tends to get to the quarterback so quickly that the secondary doesn’t need to be all-stars? Probably not, but my biggest problem with taking futures on the Ravens is not being clutch in the playoffs, and Lamar has certainly taking some risks running the football. All in all, I expect the Ravens to once again win this division just to give it all back in the playoffs.
My Number: 12.59
Action – Lean over 11.5
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2024 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.42
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Jacksonville, @ Denver, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Alex Cappa, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, RT Trent Brown, CB Mike Hilston, S Von Bell
Key additions: DT TeDarrell Slaton, ILB Oren Burks, RB Samaje Perine, G/C Lucas Patrick
Key Draft Picks: Edge Shemar Stewart, LB Demetrius Knight Jr, G Dylan Fairchild, LB Barret Carter
Summary: The Cincinnati Bengals are really the complete opposite of the Green Bay Packers. They are a team with a lot of talent with terrible coaching to match. First, the front office decision making. Hey, I like Tee Higgens, but is this team is seriously valuing their second pass catcher over one of the best edge rushers in Tre Hendrickson? Now he’s sitting out and we do not know what is going to happen. I mean, it’s not like the 27th ranked defense in EPA needs a guy like that right? Sure, maybe he decides to end his holdout at some point in September, but there is a chance that this incompetent front office trades him. Look at what the Dallas Mavericks did with Luca. Anyways, I do expect this offense to be, once again, very good, and I also expect the defense to be, once again, well quite bad. Looking at the medium schedule, I think that their win total is a tad bit high. Maybe things line up for this team, and Joe Burrow continues to be clutch. After all, they are the only ones in this division who can beat the Ravens. This team has been stuck at nine wins for the last few years. The biggest issue with the Bengals is not personnel. It’s much more the coaching staff. Coach Zac Taylor has made some dumbfounded decisions over the past four or five years. I do not see it going any different. I could see the Bengals winning 8 – 10 games. Leaving this baby alone.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, vs Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR George Pickens, T Dan Moore, G/C James Daniels, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, OLB Elandon Roberts, WR Mike Williams, Edge Preston Smith, CB CJ Henderson, T Chukwuma Okafor
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Brandin Echols, S Juan Thornill, WR Robert Woods, RB Kenneth Gainwell, QB Skyler Thompson.
Key Draft Picks: DL Derrick Harmon, RB Kaleb Johnson, Edge Jack Sawyer, DL Yahya Black, QB Will Howard
Summary: Like we said last year, and the year before, and the year before that. When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? The sharpest season win total play was to go under that, and how did that work out for us? Not so good. I am not falling for this again, but if I sure will not be betting the over. What the Steelers are betting on is that Aaron Rogers is still good. I am quite sure that I am not so sure of that. Last season, the NFL’s drama king ranked 25th in QBR playing on the Jets with Stacked receivers and running backs. We have to go back to 2021 since Rogers was better than that. Second option Mason Rudolph has been crapped on by this team for the past five seasons. Now they decide to bring him back? Say what you want about Russ and Justin, but as far as I can tell, the Steelers made their team worse at the most important position in football. Pittsburgh has also revamped a bunch of positions, and if it wasn’t for TJ Watt, most of this team would be unrecognizable to the common football fan. I am sure that the front office thinks that they got better by shedding WR George Pickens and adding DK Metcalf, but I just do not see a situation where DK isn’t mouthing off himself due to not getting the ball. I do like Calvin Austin III a lot, and think he will benefit from some of these distractions. Another position that took a hit was running back. This team seems to like Jalen Warren, but I think his success was due to Najee taking the brunt of the opponents defense while he was more of a distract back. Similar to the NY Giants, the Steelers will be great in the defensive trenches. They seemed to focus in that area once again in this draft. I do like the additions of Darius Slay, and some of the depth pieces that they have added to their secondary. What I do not see is a lot of talent in the inside linebacker position, and that could be an issue when facing the stronger run teams in this league. It is hard to make a prediction on this team minus the fact that Rookie quarterback Will Howard might just step on in when Rogers craps out.
My Number: 7.09
Action – Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD) – Steelers under 8.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 4.5 Juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.75
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Las Vegas, vs San Francisco, vs Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, RT James Hudson, QB Jameis Winston, S Juan Thornhill, CB Michael Ford, T Jedrick Wills, C Nick Harris, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: QB Kenny Pickett, DT Maliek Collins, T Cornelius Lucas, OLB Joe Tryon, QB Joe Flacco, LB Devin Bush, G Teven Jenkins, S Rayshawn Jenkins
Key Draft Picks: DL Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr, QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Dylan Sampson, QB Shedeur Sanders
Summary: For the love of God. Everyone got the Browns wrong in the beginning of 2024. My projected 9.47 wins turned into three, and with all due disrespect, they were lucky to get that. The Browns are just a terrible organization, and just when you think that they made the best draft trade of the year, they go ahead and pick two running backs and two quarterbacks in later rounds. I honestly do not understand why the would pick Dillon Gabriel in the third round when he wasn’t projected to be in the top 5 rounds, and then go ahead and pick Shedeur Sanders who teams have soured on in the 5th round. It would have made more sense if these were flip-flopped, but here we are. The good news for this team is that there isn’t much room to be any worse than last year. Ranking dead last in offensive EPA leaves no room to get much worse. I do like the running back that they drafted in Quinshon Judkins, but this team still has to figure out the ever so crowded quarterback room. Another issue is that this team doesn’t have much at the wide receiver position since they traded Amari Cooper. The offensive line is poor, and they have not re-signed Tackle Jedrick Wills. The Browns defense was the only bright spot from 2025 led by an expensive Myles Garrett. The Brownies defense was a modest 18th in EPA per play. The real bad news is that the Browns have the second hardest schedule in the league. Part of that reason was getting the 49ers as their NFC at large game, as well as being net negative -7 days of rest. Playing the Ravens, the Bengals and the Steelers all twice isn’t much fun either. Can the Browns somehow find five or six wins this year? Maybe. Teams that were embarrassed tend to play better the following year, but do not bet the over on their season win total, because you might not have much fun in doing so.
My Number: 4.38
Action: Lean Under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -6.5
