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Oregon vs Wisconsin -8.5 O/U 154.5
Game Details:
Date: February 22, 2025
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
Broadcast: FOX
Offensive Efficiency:
Wisconsin is ranked 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are averaging 82.0 points per game, and their shooting efficiency is 46.8%. This indicates that they have a highly effective offense capable of putting up big numbers.
Oregon is ranked 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are averaging 76.6 points per game, with a shooting efficiency of 45.7%. Their offense is also solid and can contribute significantly to the total points.
Defensive Efficiency:
Wisconsin is ranked 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While they have a decent defense, they have allowed 70.6 points per game. This suggests that their defense can be penetrated by a strong offensive team like Oregon.
Oregon is ranked 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have allowed 71.7 points per game, indicating that their defense is not impenetrable and can be exploited by Wisconsin’s high-powered offense.
Pace of Play:
Both teams have shown the ability to play at a fast pace. Wisconsin’s recent games have been high-scoring affairs, with scores like 95-74 against Illinois and 94-84 against Purdue. This suggests that they are comfortable playing in high-scoring games.
Oregon’s recent games have also been high-scoring, with an 80-78 win against Iowa. This indicates that they can keep up with a fast-paced game and contribute to a high total score.
Key Players:
Wisconsin’s John Tonje is averaging 19.6 points per game, and John Blackwell is averaging 15.2 points per game. These players are capable of putting up big numbers and driving the total score higher.
Oregon’s Jackson Shelstad is averaging 13.3 points per game, and Nate Bittle is averaging 12.9 points per game. These players can also contribute significantly to the total points.
I think that we get some serious points this game. Wisconsin is 16-10 to the over while Oregon is 15-12. Both teams sometimes struggle on defense with Wisconsin ranking 40th in defensive efficiency to Oregon ranking 53rd. The Badgers are number 1 in free throw percentage. I expect them to get to the line at home. Over Oregon’s last three games, they eclipsed at least 75 points in each of them. The Badgers in their last two games eclipsed at least 94 points in each of them. Given the high offensive efficiency of both teams, their ability to play at a fast pace, and the presence of key players who can score big, it’s reasonable to argue that today’s game between Oregon and Wisconsin will go over 157 points.
Over 154.5 – 2 stars
Bonus Play – Stonybrook +2.5 – 2 stars – NC A&T is very injured with two of their top players in Glasper and Forrest on the shelf. These guys together take over 65% of the shots. The Market hasn’t responded nearly enough on this.
We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from The Should Have Bet More Podcast and VSIN is back to break down some college hoops! First, Kiev gets into some college basketball betting trends. Next, Matt comes on and the guys get right into some baseball. We talk some Mets and Yankees. We discuss some sleeper teams as well as who might win the World Series. Then, Will and Kiev talk about some buy low and sell high teams that could have some value coming up here in crunch time. After that, the guys get into some of the biggest games and good betting spots for the weekend with some Free Plays. Finally, Kiev recaps our prospective plays for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld is the eighth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season and one of six national opens that award FedExCup points, alongside the Puerto Rico Open, RBC Canadian Open, U.S. Open, Genesis Scottish Open, and The Open Championship.
This tournament also marks the first chance for players to earn FedExCup points toward the Aon Swing 5 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. The top five players, not otherwise exempt, who accumulate the most FedExCup points at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and the following week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches will qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Ludvig Åberg
Ludvig Åberg secured his first Signature Event victory at the Genesis Invitational, held at Torrey Pines. He posted a final-round 66, finishing at 12 under par to claim a one-stroke victory over Maverick McNealy.
Jake Knapp
Jake Knapp earned his first PGA TOUR title at the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta, holding on for a two-stroke victory over Sami Välimäki. Since then, he has yet to capture a second win on TOUR but is coming off his best result of the season, finishing T17 at the Genesis Invitational.
Blades Brown
The 17-year-old is set to play in his third PGA TOUR event and his second since turning professional earlier this season. Last year, he finished T26 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, and in 2024, he competed in The American Express, where he missed the cut. Brown will turn 18 on May 21, at which point he will be eligible to earn PGA TOUR or Korn Ferry Tour status based on merit, as players under 18 cannot become TOUR members.
El Cardonal at Diamante – Platinum paspalum .090” – World Wide Technology Championship
Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – 7, 000 sq. ft. – The American Express
Memorial Park Golf Course – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Texas Children’s Houston Open
The Renaissance Club – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Genesis Scottish Open
PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
Black Desert Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – Black Desert Championship
TV Information (all times ET):
Round 1: Thursday, February 20th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, February 21st, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, February 22nd, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:30 AM – 1:00 PM
Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, February 23rd, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:30 AM – 1:00 PM
Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Weather:
Course/ Tournament History:
The Vidanta Vallarta Course, located within the VidantaWorld resort in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico, is a premier golf destination that has quickly become a staple in the world of professional golf. Designed by renowned architect Greg Norman, the course opened in 2015 and offers a challenging layout set against the stunning backdrop of the Pacific Ocean and the Sierra Madre mountains. The course is part of the VidantaWorld resort, a luxury destination known for its world-class amenities, including high-end hotels, restaurants, and recreational options. Looking ahead, VidantaWorld is set to open the BON Luxury Theme Park in 2026, further enhancing the resort’s appeal. Vidanta Vallarta has hosted the Mexico Open, which became an official PGA TOUR event in 2022, marking the course’s rise to prominence on the international golf scene.
VidantaWorld’s premier resort features two additional golf courses alongside Vidanta Vallarta. The Nayar Course, a Jack Nicklaus-designed par-70 layout, offers a strategic challenge, while The Lakes Course, a 10-hole, par-3 layout, provides a unique after-dark golf experience with illuminated fairways and greens.
The Mexico Open is a storied tournament with a rich history dating back to its inaugural event in 1944. Initially, it was a local event held at various venues, primarily in Mexico City, including Club de Golf Chapultepec. For many years, it was a prominent fixture on the Mexican golf scene before gaining more international recognition. Over time, the tournament has seen several name and format changes, with a notable shift in 1994 when it became part of the PGA TOUR Latinoamérica series. In 2022, the Mexico Open was elevated to an official PGA TOUR event, marking a new era in its legacy. Since then, it has been held at Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, bringing PGA TOUR players to the country for the first time in decades.
72-Hole Record (VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
260, Tony Finau (2023)
18-Hole Record (VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
61, Jon Rahm (third round, 2023)
Largest Margin of Victory (VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
3 Strokes – Tony Finau (2023)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Vidanta Vallarta Course at VidantaWorld, originally crafted by Greg Norman in 2015, presents golfers with a challenging Par 71 layout spanning 7,456 yards. Notably, it boasts a distinctive configuration featuring five Par 3s, nine Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
To adhere to PGA TOUR standards, the course underwent significant alterations. This included replacing the geotextile and sand in the 106 traps, with 1,760 tons of white silica sand sourced from Veracruz, Mexico. Additionally, the sand in the practice area’s traps was also replaced.
The course’s par rating was adjusted from Par 73 to Par 71. Notably, the 4th and 16th holes were reclassified from Par 5s to Par 4s. Furthermore, nine holes underwent lengthening, including holes 1 to 4 of the first round and holes 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18 of the second round. As a result of these modifications, the course’s total yardage increased by 169 yards, now measuring 7,456 yards compared to its previous length of 7,287 yards.
Stretching over 7,400 yards, Vidanta Vallarta ranks among the longest courses on the PGA TOUR. Despite its length, the wide fairways provide ample room off the tee, making accuracy less of a concern. The 2-inch rough is relatively forgiving, and the large greens, averaging 7,000 square feet, enhance playability. However, the course presents a significant challenge with its abundance of bunkers, ranking among the top two on TOUR in total sand hazards. Additionally, coastal winds from the Pacific Ocean add another layer of difficulty, demanding precise shot-making. The Paspalum greens, common on seaside courses, create a sticky surface that limits bump-and-run opportunities, requiring a more controlled short-game approach.
The five Par 3’s range from 170 to 226 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 11 were the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average under par.
No. 5, 208 yards, Par 3: “This first par 3 has a green protected entirely by traps, so it simulates an island-type green. The control of the spin will be very important to be able to attack the flag and get the long-awaited birdie.”
No. 9, 197 yards, Par 3: “With an elevated island-type transverse green with a lake in front and undulations on the surface of the green, it will allow players to get the best out of their control shots with medium irons, as well as the wind that, due to the height of the shot, will affect the flights of the ball from the start.”
There are nine Par 4’s at Vidanta Vallarta with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. Last year, the easiest hole on the course last year was No. 7 which is a Par 4 listed at 297 yards which had a scoring average of 3.406.
No. 3, 445 yards, Par 4: “Another of the new tees protected by desert on the right side and lake on the left side, plus some traps halfway through. But what’s really tricky about this hole is the crosswind you usually find on the shots to the green. When achieving the fairway, the second shot will have to be applied to the sensitivity of the player to control the distance due to the crosswind and the bounce on the green that is divided into two floors, interesting flag positions on a hole that requires total control from the tee of tee.”
No. 7, 297 yards, Par 4: “A hole known as “risk-reward”, where players will be able to reach the green without problems, but they will have to take care of the water on the left side and the sand traps on the right side of the green. Without a doubt, one of the holes where we can see many fireworks as it is the shortest par 4 of the 18 holes.”
No. 15, 459 yards, Par 4: “Penalty lake all along the left side of the fairway from tee off to the green and with a sand trap in the middle of the fairway reachable with the drive. The green is flat with no undulations and with sand traps protecting its right side.”
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 6, No. 12, No. 14, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024.
No. 12, 637 yards, Par 5: “A long par 5 that makes it difficult to reach the two-way green. The imposing parota tree protecting the second shot makes players concentrate on a placement shot to achieve a short third shot that allows them to get down a stroke to par of the hole.”
No. 18, 548 yards, Par 5: “A parota shaft protects the tee shot. In addition, a narrow fairway covered with sand traps on the left side and an O.B. on the right side make it a challenge off the tee. However, it gives you a chance to get on two strokes with a chance of ending your round with an eagle. In case it is played conservatively, the third shot to the green requires maximum precision to be able to place the third shot close to the hole and be able to close their round with birdie.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7
Key Statistics:
The Mexico Open takes place at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course). Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.80
297.65
Driving Accuracy
62%
64%
GIR Percentage
66%
67%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
37.08
Scrambling Percentage
58%
58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.48
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course).
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Over the past three editions of the Mexico Open, every winner has ranked 11th or better in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Samuel Stevens
Taylor Moore
Trevor Cone
Matthias Schmid
Rico Hoey
Chun-an Yu
Kurt Kitayama
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Will Gordon
Alejandro Tosti
Strokes Gained: Approach
Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past three editions of the Mexico Open, every winner has ranked 30th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach amongst the field. The last two winners of this event have ranked 8th or higher in this category.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kurt Kitayama
Antoine Rozner
Matteo Manassero
Andrew Putnam
McClure (Mac) Meissner
Kevin Roy
Charley Hoffman
Nicolai Hojgaard
Michael Kim
David Lipsky
Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
The green complexes at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) are Platinum paspalum. Over the past three editions of the Mexico Open, every winner has ranked 18th or better in Strokes Gained: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Silverman
Davis Riley
Aaron Baddeley
Akshay Bhatia
Henrik Norlander
Patrick Rodgers
Sami Valimaki
Ben Griffin
Chan Kim
Emiliano Grillo
Par 3 Scoring
There are five Par 3’s at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) range between 170-226 Yards. Over the past two editions of the Mexico Open, both winners have ranked 3rd or better in Par 3 Scoring amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sam Ryder
Nicolai Hojgaard
Thorbjorn Olesen
Justin Lower
Michael Thorbjornsen
Kevin Tway
Francesco Molinari
Brian Campbell
Beau Hossler
Vincent Whaley
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Four of the nine Par 4’s at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) range from 450-500 Yards. Over the past two editions of the Mexico Open, both winners have ranked 1st in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Alejandro Tosti
Joe Highsmith
Carson Young
Patrick Fishburn
Antoine Rozner
Sam Stevens
Michael Kim
Matteo Manassero
Rikuya Hoshino
Alex Smalley
Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards
Two of the four Par 5’s at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) range between 600-650 Yards. The two outliers are No. 14 which is listed at 585 Yards and No. 18 which is listed at 548 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kristoffer Ventura
Michael Kim
Vincent Whaley
Erik Van Rooyen
Trey Mullinax
Beau Hossler
Akshay Bhatia
Scott Piercy
Chan Kim
Aaron Rai
Driving Distance Gained
The Vidanta Vallarta Course is one of the longest courses on Tour playing over 7,400 Yards. Over the past three editions of the Mexico Open, every winner has ranked 11th or better in Driving Distance Gained amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Chris Gotterup
Aldrich Potgieter
Alejandro Tosti
Pierceson Coody
Michael Thorbjornsen
Tyler McCumber
Keith Mitchell
Paul Waring
Erik Van Rooyen
Tim Widing
Greens in Regulation Gained
With large but undulating greens, those who frequently find the putting surface in regulation set themselves up for more birdie opportunities while avoiding the difficulty of scrambling from tight lies or tricky bunkers. Over the past three editions of the Mexico Open, every winner has ranked 7th or better in Greens in Regulation Gained amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Will Gordon
Andrew Putnam
Ben Griffin
Ben Kohles
Alex Smalley
Rasmus Hojgaard
Matteo Manassero
Patrick Rodgers
Vincent Norrman
Nicolai Hojgaard
Birdies or Better Gained
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) historically demands low scoring to contend. With each of the last three winners posting a winning score of -17 or better, players need to consistently convert birdie opportunities to keep pace.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Joe Highsmith
Jesper Svensson
Maverick McNealy
Harry Hall
Rasmus Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jacob Bridgeman
Ryan Gerard
Frankie Capan
Justin Lower
Sand Saves Gained
The Vidanta Vallarta Course boasts a significant number of bunkers, players will inevitably encounter them during the tournament. Excelling in bunker play will be crucial for contenders aiming to stay competitive and contend for victory this week. Over the past two editions of the Mexico Open, both winners have ranked 15th or better in Sand Saves Gained amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Beau Hossler
Vincent Whaley
Keith Mitchell
Isaiah Salinda
Brian Campbell
Ryo Hisatsune
Takumi Kanaya
Akshay Bhatia
Sam Ryder
Alejandro Tosti
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 200+ yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Alvaro Ortiz-Becerra
Rikuya Hoshino
Nicolai Hojgaard
Nick Hardy
Alex Smalley
Jackson Suber
Zac Blair
Kurt Kitayama
Wesley Bryan
Matthias Schmid
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course) has been a slight predictor of future performance in this tournament.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
Patrick Rodgers
Jake Knapp
Stephan Jaeger
Akshay Bhatia
Kurt Kitayama
Carson Young
Sami Valimaki
Emiliano Grillo
C.T. Pan
Beau Hossler
The Field:
This year’s Mexico Open will feature a total of 132 competitors. Among them are just two of the top thirty players in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons.
Leading 10 players (not otherwise exempt) on DP World Tour
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Winners of the Arnold Palmer, Memorial, Genesis (Last 3 Years )
Leading Points Winner from DP World Tour
Players 2-30 on the Prior Season Korn Ferry Tour Points List
Top 5 Finishers and Ties from PGA TOUR Q-School
Top 10 and Ties from the Previous Event.
300 PGA TOUR Career Cuts Made
PGA TOUR University #1 – Prior Season
PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year.
Designated Sponsor Exemptions
Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt.
Sponsor Exemptions: DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
Aldrich Potgieter, Anders Albertson, Antoine Rozner, Blades Brown, Braden Thornberry, Brian Campbell, Danny Walker, Erich Fortlage, Frankie Capan III, Gerardo Gomez, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Suber, Jesper Svensson, Jesse Droemer, Joel Dahmen, John Pak, Jose Luis Ballester Barrio, Justin Hastings, Kaito Onishi, Karl Vilips, Kevin Velo, Kevin Yu, Kristoffer Ventura, Leaondro Mihaich, Luke Gifford, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Matthew Riedel, Matthew Watkins, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nick Hardy, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Paul Waring, Quade Cummins, Rasmus Hojgaard, Ricky Castillo, Rikuya Hoshino, Riley Lewis, Sam Ryder, Steven Fisk, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Rosenmueller, Thriston Lawrence, Tim Widing, Vince Covello, Will Chandler, William Mouw, Zac Blair
Will There Be a Playoff at the Mexico Open? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Since the Mexico Open became an official PGA TOUR event in 2022 and moved to its current venue at VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course), the tournament has yet to be decided by a playoff.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Mexico Open? (Yes -145/ No +110)
2024: Rafael Campo made a remarkable hole-in-one on the par-3 17th hole during the second round at Vidanta Vallarta on Friday.
2023: No holes-in-one were recorded.
2022: Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Scott Gutschewski both scored holes-in-one on the par-3 5th hole in the same round. This marked only the fourth time in history that multiple holes-in-one were made on the same hole in the same round of a stroke-play event, with the last occurrence being at the 2016 Masters on the 16th hole in the final round.
Recent Horses for Courses (VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
(Only using data from the 2022-24 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)
Mexico Open
Mexico Open
Mexico Open
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
Patrick Rodgers
3
+26.9
T6
T10
10
Stephan Jaeger
3
+22.9
T3
T18
T15
Emiliano Grillo
3
+18.93
T33
T5
T33
Greyson Sigg
3
+15.9
T19
T18
T33
Carson Young
2
+15.15
T8
T15
–
C.T. Pan
2
+142.8
T3
–
T29
Harry Hall
2
+12.15
T33
T10
–
Erik Van Rooyen
2
+11.16
T8
T33
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)):
(Only using data from the 2022-24 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)
Mexico Open
Mexico Open
Mexico Open
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
Jose Cristobal Islas
2
-14.91
–
MC
MC
Matthias Schmid
2
-14.57
MC
MC
–
Jose Antonio Safa
2
-13.11
MC
–
MC
Max McGreevy
2
-9.91
–
MC
MC
Vince Whaley
2
-9.11
MC
–
MC
Kevin Tway*
2
-1.91
–
MC
MC
Patton Kizzire
2
-0.28
MC
MC
–
* Kevin Tway is currently an alternate
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Jake Knapp (-19)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jake Knapp
11th
1st
1st
42nd
17th
2023: Tony Finau (-24)
Price: 8-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Tony Finau
2nd
2nd
8th
18th
8th
2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
Price: 5-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
2nd
3rd
30th
22nd
18th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Jake Knapp
T28 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
T3 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
MC – The American Express (PGA)
T70 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
T10 – Korn Ferry Tour Championship (KFT)
2023: Tony Finau
T31 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T26 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
T17 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T24 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2022: Jon Rahm
T27 – The Masters (MAJ)
T9 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T17 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
T21 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Jake Knapp
Tournament Debut
2023: Tony Finau
Mexico Open
VidantaWorld (Vidanta Vallarta Course)
2022
Tony Finau
T2
2022: Jon Rahm
Tournament Debut
Picks:
Outrights
Kurt Kitayama (+2200) – DraftKings
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Kurt Kitayama
6th
1st
11th
33rd
24th
11th
19th
14th
38th
7th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Ben Griffin (+3300) – FanDuel
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Ben Griffin
42nd
51st
8th
26th
37th
62nd
9th
31st
124th
9th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Alex Smalley (+4000) – FanDuel
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Alex Smalley
12th
28th
118th
16th
11th
42nd
4th
9th
45th
6th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Michael Thorbjorsen (+6000) – FanDuel
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Michael Thorbjorsen
101st
23rd
40th
5th
66th
4th
37th
12th
69th
15th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Jesper Svensson (+6600) – BetMGM
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Jesper Svensson
19th
53rd
40th
29th
107th
33rd
59th
2nd
48th
74th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Top 20 (Inc. Ties)
Nicolai Højgaard (+160) – DraftKings
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Nicolai Højgaard
113th
9th
112th
2nd
83rd
21st
10th
89th
75th
3rd
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Carson Young (+220) – DraftKings
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Carson Young
28th
70th
20th
38th
3rd
102nd
55th
25th
27th
48th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Top 40 (Inc. Ties)
Aldrich Potgieter (+100) – BetMGM
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Aldrich Potgieter
16th
121st
40th
83rd
110th
1st
101st
114th
112th
16th
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Antoine Rozner (+115) – BetMGM
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Putting Paspalum
SG: Par 3
Par 4: 400-450 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Greens in Reg. Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Antoine Rozner
66th
1st
40th
103rd
7th
38th
29th
29th
123rd
41st
All ranks are in the last 24 rounds
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Fresno State Bulldogs (5-21, 1-14 MWC) VS San Diego State Aztecs (17-6, 10-4 MWC) -19.5 O/U 141.5
Date & Time: Tuesday, February 18, 2025, at 11:00 PM EST (8:00 PM PST)
San Diego State: Nicholas Boyd (12.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG), Michael Gwath (8.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG)
Team Stats:
Fresno State: 72.0 PPG, 40.5 FG%, 7.0 3PG
San Diego State: 70.8 PPG, 43.6 FG%, 7.6 3PG
Recent Form:
Fresno State: 1-9 in last 10 games, averaging 69.5 PPG
San Diego State: 7-3 in last 10 games, averaging 66.7 PPG
The total should go under 139 points because both teams have shown a tendency to play at a slower pace and struggle offensively. Fresno State has been allowing 81.7 points per game, which is one of the highest in the conference, but they also score just 72.0 points per game themselves. On the other hand, San Diego State has a solid defense, allowing only 62.6 points per game, but their offense averages just 70.8 points per game. If you look at the trend line on game pace as seen below from Bart Torvik, Fresno State has slowed down their play to tempo in the 60s.
A potential reason that Fresno State has slowed down their pace is for the reason that they might be getting sick of being blown out. The Bulldogs have lost every conference game this year except one against Air Force. Sa Diego State themselves play slow ranking 238th in Tempo. Their defense is amazing ranking 2nd in the nation in opponent adjusted effective FG%.
USE PROMO CODE Basketball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss -4.5 O/U 146.5
Venue: The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
Time: 5:00 PM CT
Location: Oxford, Mississippi
Matchup: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Today’s matchup between the Bulldogs and the Rebels is shaping up to be a heater! Both teams have shown they can compete at a high level, and their recent performances indicate a close game is on the horizon. Mississippi State, ranked 22nd, has a strong defensive rebounding presence with KeShawn Murphy averaging 5.3 per game, while Ole Miss, ranked 19th, boasts a high-scoring offense averaging 78.1 points per game. The Bulldogs have been efficient shooters, hitting 45.8% from the field, but the Rebels have been solid defensively, allowing only 71.8 points per game.
Looking at the matchup, Ole Miss will have a three point shooting advantage ranking 33rd in adjusted three point shots on Haslmatrics, to Mississippi State only ranking 272nd in defending them, but what I like about the Bulldogs and they are much stronger inside. They will have a big second chance points advantage due to their offensive rebounding, and they will be able to score down lot. Given their recent close games and evenly matched stats, this game could very well be a one possession game at the end. Take the points.
Mississippi State +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Bonus Play – Boise State vs San Diego State under 136.5 – 2 stars – Neither of these teams will have offensive advantages as both teams are defensive oriented. Boise is a terrible road team when shooting the ball at only 51.5% effective FG% on the road. San Diego State doesn’t score well themselves and they play a very slow pace.
