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NFL: LAC/Hou
NFL: Pit/Bal
NCAAB: KY/MSST
NBA: Mem/Min
NHL: Sea/Buf
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5 Free Selections:
NFL: LAC/Hou
NFL: Pit/Bal
NCAAB: KY/MSST
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NHL: Sea/Buf
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Villanova vs St John’s -6.5 O/U 145.5
This should be a good matchup in the big easy. The Johnny’s have had a solid start to the season at 13-3. They play fast yet are a solid rebounding team ranking 14th in offensive rebounding. They are poor at shooting the three, but they only take 29.7% of their shots behind the arc. Defense has been big for Rick Pitino’s Red Storm as they rank 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Since the Maryland loss, Nova has been on a tear winning 8 of their last nine games. None more significant than their big win at home against UCONN. I must say that Nova has been tearing through their opponents with an amazing effective FG% ranking 9th in the land at 58.2%. The Cats rank 4th in three point percentage at 41.4%. Is that sustainable? I am not so sure. Nova relies on the three, and when they are away from home, their effective FG% drops down to 54.2%. Factor in that their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 321st and you have your answer. I honestly do not think that Villanova can shoot on the road against a good defense. Further more, Nova’s win against UCONN was without the Huskie’s best player in Liam McNeeley. This is a huge let down spot for the Cats. Lay the points with the Johnny’s!
St John’s -6.5 – 2.5 stars
Bonus Play – Florida/Arkansas over 156.5 – 2.5 stars – Both teams play extremely fast. Arkansas needs this game like blood and I expect a big shootout today.

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NCAAF: Ohio St/Texas
NBA: Thunder/Knicks
NHL: Kings/Jets
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This should be the best game on tonight in CBB land. The Terrapins are hosting the Bruins and both teams are coming off two losses in a row. One thing that you have to appreciate about the terps here is that they really know how to score. This team ranks 56.1% effective FG which ranks 28th in the nation. Their defense has been swarming ranking 22nd in the nation in adjusted efficiency. The Bruins on the other hand have a heck of a defense ranking 5th in efficiency, but this team tends to flutter when shooting the ball only ranking 119th in effective FG percent at 52.3%. My biggest problem with the bruins is that they take a lot of mid rang shots ranking 35th in the nation. This isn’t a good strategy on the road where Maryland will be shooting threes and finishing at the rim. The Terps rank 2nd in adjusted three point percentage while the Bruins do not defense it will ranking 75th in opponent adjusted three point percentage.

Maryland is a great home team ranking 4th in home road splits as you see here from @Haslamatrics. UCLA ranks 327th away form home. Take the Terps. Lay the points.
Maryland -5 – 2.5 stars
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs Penn State +1.5 O/U 44.5
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Notre Dame:
Penn State:
Post-season Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Penn State +.1
Basic Stats:

Key Stats: Notre Dame is the better rushing team ranking 2nd in rush EPA to 18th for Penn State while Penn State gets the nod on the passing ranking 8th in pass EPA to Notre Dame at 47th. Both schedules are not too far from each other. Notre Dame has the slightly better defense ranking 2nd in EPA to Penn State at 17th.
Verdict: This should be a tight game. I have Notre Dame by two points or so, but It wouldn’t shock me if the Nittany Lions get them. I do give a slight edge to some of the intangibles as I think that Notre Dame’s quarterback Riley Leonard might be a bit more big game ready than Drew Allar. I also think the Irish get the coaching edge as Big game James could always make a showing. I am somewhat concerned for the two day rest advantage for Penn State and the health of Jeremiyah Love. I want to make sure he is healthy before I decide to make a play.
Play: Lean Notre Dame -1.5
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Ohio State vs Texas +6 O/U 53.5
Time: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home. It’s in Texas so give them -1 in Arlington.
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio State:
Texas:
Bowl Coach ATS:
Net YPP: Ohio State +.9
Basic Stats:

Key Stats: Ohio State has the better offense ranking number 2 in offensive EPA to 37th for Texas. They also have the better defense ranking 1st in defensive EPA to Texas at number 3.
Verdict: There isn’t much more to say than the fact that Ohio State is better than Texas in pretty much every key area. I will say that Texas could slow this game down to try and give them an advantage, but how long will that last. Texas has been the more inconsistent team in general as they almost blew their game against ASU among their two losses to Georgia. Texas also doesn’t have many big wins. Ohio State is red hot. I think they win this game and I also will take the under as a safety net.
Play: Ohio State -6 and under 53.5
We have a great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 from @ShotQualityBets is back to break down a huge weekend of college basketball! First, Justin comes on and the guys talk about the college basketball landscape. Then Justin and Kiev talk about some buy low/sell high teams for the season. Then, we get into some of the best betting spots for this weekend in college basketball with some Fre Plays. Next, the guys give out a few beer bet long shots that have a chance to hit. After that, Kiev talks NFL Wildcard weekend with some more plays. Finally we get into NFL sharp money movement and recap our plays! Our Refuse to lose teaser finishes the NFL season at 12-7 while our Tick Tock Props finish at 24-15! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Premium Selections over at www.oddsbreakers.com
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NCAAF: Notre Dame/Penn St
NBA: Hornets/Lakers
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Rules:
The Packers out-gained the Bears 367 to 224 yet lost 24-22. Equal turnover at two but three sacks and bad third down efficiency got the Pack.
The Cowboys out-gained the Commanders 378 to 269 yet lost 23-19. They won the turnover margin 0-1 but bad red zone offense got dem boys.
The Falcons out-gained the Panthers 537 to 425 yet lost 44-38. A 1-0 turnover ratio, poor coaching and poor red zone got the dirty birds.
The Bengals out-gained the Steelers 314 to 193 yet only won 19-17. A 2-1 turnover ratio and very poor special teams and red zone hurt the Bengals cover.