We have a HUGE show for you today! Greg Peterson from @VSINLIVE is back to break down a huge weekend of college basketball! First, Kiev talks about some records from last year. Next, Kiev get’s into some NFL football divisional weekend with some plays and some props! Then, Greg comes on and the guys talk CBB. Who is the best conference? Who is a dark horse to make the tournament? Then, we talk about some buy low/sell high teams for the season. After that, we get into some of the best betting spots for this weekend in college basketball with some Free Plays. Next, the guys give out a few beer bet long shots that have a chance to hit. Then, Kiev talks some UFC 311 with a few dogs that he likes as well as Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
George Mason vs Dayton -8 O/U 135.5
This should be a good matchup today in the Atlantic 10 where the Patriots visit the Flyers. George Mason is coming off two nice wins in a row while Dayton is coming off of two rough losses. From a side perspective, Dayton is the better team, but not by eight points at home. I definitely lean that side, however do not want to rush into betting it due to the fact that I think that Dayton is in the much better covering spot. What I like here is the total. The Flyers should be stepping up their defense today against a team in George Mason that only ranks 183rd in offensive efficiency. The Flyers have advantages covering the three as well as from mid range. On the other side of the ball, George Mason has been winning their games with defense. Over the last six games, the Patriots have held their opponents to 60 points or less five times. The Patriots also like to pay slow with an adjusted pace ranking 296th on Kenpom. We also notice that Dayton seems to play a little slower against their opponents as they rank 261st in adjusted tempo while their defense will see some improvement at home. I will also say that Dayton has had some pretty bad free throw luck this season with opponents shooting 76.9% from the charity stripe which is 349th in the league. I think this is a low scoring game.
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We came agonizingly close to our first outright win of the season last week, with Nico Echavarria (100-1) falling just short in a playoff to Nick Taylor at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Earlier at The Sentry, Sungjae Im (18-1) also came close, finishing 3rd.
Up next is The American Express, the third event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season and the second full-field event of the year.
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Nick Taylor’s Sony Open Triumph: A Stunning Comeback Victory
Nick Taylor pulled off a stunning victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii, defying all odds at Waialae Country Club. Heading into the final hole, Taylor sat at -14 with a mere 0.4% chance of winning, as the leaders were at -16. However, he delivered a clutch chip-in to put himself in contention for a potential playoff. Nico Echavarria also birdied the last hole, finishing at -16 to set up the dramatic showdown.
J.J. Spaun and Stephan Jaeger, who led much of the final round, were widely expected to battle for the title but faltered late, opening the door for Taylor’s remarkable comeback.
The playoff lasted two holes, where Taylor triumphed over Echavarria, securing his fifth career PGA TOUR victory. The win also moved Taylor to a perfect 3-0 record in career playoffs, cementing his reputation as a clutch performer in high-pressure moments.
Here are Nick Taylor's scores on the 72nd hole/playoffs when he's been in contention since 2023 RBC Canadian Open.
birdie birdie eagle birdie birdie birdie eagle par par birdie birdie
Nick Dunlap looks for repeat success at the American Express
Nick Dunlap returns to PGA WEST looking to replicate his remarkable success from last year, when he made history by winning the event as an amateur. That victory marked him as the first amateur to win on the PGA TOUR since 1991. Dunlap followed up his American Express triumph with another win at the Barracuda Championship, solidifying his status as one of golf’s rising stars.
17-Year-Old Sensation: Blades Brown
Seventeen-year-old Blades Brown is set to make his second career PGA TOUR start and his first since turning professional last month. In his debut, Brown delivered an impressive performance with a T26 finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic. The young phenom will look to continue showcasing his potential against a strong field.
The American Express golf tournament, originally known as the Palm Springs Golf Classic, is one of the most historic and unique events on the PGA Tour. Established in 1960 to promote tourism in the Coachella Valley, the tournament quickly gained prominence due to its pro-am format, where Hollywood celebrities were paired with professional golfers. Played across several pristine courses in the Palm Springs area, the event became a star-studded celebration of golf. Over the years, it has undergone several name changes to reflect its sponsors, most notably the Bob Hope Desert Classic, a name synonymous with the tournament for decades due to Bob Hope’s long-standing association.
The tournament’s 3-course rotation is a defining characteristic, providing a unique challenge for participants. Players rotate between the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, the PGA West Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club during the first three days. The PGA West complex hosts three of the four rounds, with the Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament Courses situated on-site. La Quinta Country Club, located about five miles from the complex, serves as the third course and requires the only travel for players during the event. This rotation adds diversity and showcases the distinct features of each course.
Another distinctive feature of The American Express is the pro-am structure, where each professional is paired with an amateur for the first three rounds. Groups consist of two pros and two amateurs, creating a dynamic and inclusive atmosphere. To accommodate the amateurs, pin placements are typically in easier positions during the first three days, and rounds can extend to six hours. Additionally, the tournament’s cut is made after 54 holes rather than the standard 36, reflecting the three-course rotation.
PGA West boasts nine unique golf courses, each offering its own set of challenges. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is the most well-known, hosting the prestigious American Express tournament. Another public course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, designed by Jack Nicklaus, enhances the venue’s reputation. For private members, PGA West features several acclaimed courses, including the Palmer Course, designed by Arnold Palmer, the Weiskopf Course, designed by Tom Weiskopf, and the Greg Norman Course, designed by Greg Norman. Additionally, there are four more private courses: the Mountain Course, Dunes Course, Citrus Course, and Nicklaus Course, all of which provide breathtaking views and distinctive golfing experiences.
The PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, one of the most challenging in the U.S., opened in 1986 as part of the PGA West complex. Designed by Pete Dye, the course is known for its dramatic hazards, deep bunkers, and the iconic par-3 17th hole, “Alcatraz,” surrounded by water. While its difficulty initially led to its removal from the tournament rotation, it returned triumphantly in 2016 and has been a staple of The American Express since. The PGA West Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, opened in 1987, reflects Nicklaus’s vision of blending natural beauty with strategic design. Known for its wide fairways, water hazards, and the backdrop of the Santa Rosa Mountains, it provides a visually stunning yet challenging test for golfers. La Quinta Country Club, established in 1959, has been part of the event since its inception. Renowned for its tree-lined fairways and well-manicured greens, the course is steeped in history and has long been a favorite among professionals.
59, David Duval (Round 5, 1999 at PGA WEST/Palmer), Adam Hadwin (Round 3, 2017 at La Quinta CC)
Largest Margin of Victory (The American Express):
6 Strokes, Tom Kite (1993), Rik Massengale (1977)
Most Wins at Event:
5, Arnold Palmer (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973)
Course Records:
18-Hole Record (PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course):
61, Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021)
18-Hole Record (PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course):
61, Will Zalatoris (Round 2, 2022), Sam Burns (Round 2, 2024)
18-Hole Record (La Quinta Country Club):
59, Adam Hadwin (Round 3, 2017 at La Quinta CC)
Course Guides/ Scorecard:
PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course
The four Par 3’s range from 165 to 223 yards.
No. 6 “Amen”, 227 yards, Par 3: One of the more intimidating holes on the course, however, there is a bailout area left and the green is large enough to receive just about any club you choose to hit here.
No. 17 “Alcatraz”, 165 yards, Par 3: Alcatraz is our signature hole at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. A precise tee shot here is a must into this island green which is surrounded by imposing boulders and a treacherous water hazard.
There are ten Par 4s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards.
No. 7 “Black Hole”, 346 yards, Par 4: This may be the shortest par-4 on the course but this hole requires a very precise drive. There is a water hazard that runs down the entire right side and the bailout area left is no bargain. If you are lucky enough to hit the fairway you will be left with a short iron into the green.
No. 18 “Coliseum”, 439 yards, Par 4: One of the more intimidating drives on the course with water down the entire left side of the hole. You will need to favor the right side and try to avoid the bunkers. Your approach shot into this green has no bail out on the left and water that comes into play and bunkers that protect the front right.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 8, No. 11, and No. 16.
No. 5 “Double Trouble”, 535 yards, Par 5: This par-5 is a true risk-reward hole that requires a drive that avoids the water down the left side. Laying up here is no easy feat as you need to favor the left side to stay out of the water on the right.
No. 16 “San Andreas Fault”, 600 yards, Par 5: Avoid the bunker down the left off the tee. If you have a chance to go for the green you will need to keep your second shot down the right as the bunker that is greenside is approx. 20 feet deep. Getting out of this bunker could take some time. Laying up is always the suggested play as a short iron into this green should set you up nicely.
No. 8 “Lilly Pad”, 172 yards, Par 3: A beautiful semi-island green that has no room for shots that come up a little short. Aiming at the middle of this green is always the best option, no matter where the pin location is for the day.
No. 12 “Fatal Attraction”, 165 yards, Par 3: The center of the green is always the best spot to aim on this hole. Miss this green to the right or short left in the bunker and you will be left with a nearly impossible up and down.
There are ten Par 4’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. One thing to note is that hole No. 1 was listed at 378 Yards and this year has changed to 412 Yards.
No. 9 “Jack’s Revenge”, 461 yards, Par 4: Try to favor the left side of this fairway as a shot down the right could leave you with a blind second shot. The green is well guarded by a large water hazard, so choosing the correct club here is a must. You can bail out a little right if needed.
No. 18 “Bear Trap”, 431 yards, Par 4: It is hard to find a more beautiful finishing hole than this one. Your tee shot plays back to the clubhouse and will need to avoid the fairway bunker and water hazard down the right side. You will have a second shot that will require a mid to long iron and will need to have enough carry to get over the bunker that guards the front of the green. The green slopes severely from back to front and from left to right.
There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 4, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 15.
No. 11 “Moguls”, 528 yards, Par 5: Aim to the right of the moguls on the left side of the fairway to set up the best view of this green for your second shot. The layup shot is crucial here as you need to decide whether to lay up short of the fairway bunker or take on the carry to set up a short pitch into the green. Make sure to avoid the left side of the green at all costs as it falls off severely and leaves an almost impossible up and down.
No. 15 “Long Island”, 572 yards, Par 5: One of the more scenic driving holes that requires a straight drive that avoids the deep fairway bunker off the tee. Keeping your lay-up shot down the right is a must and will leave you an approach shot that will need to carry the water hazard onto an island green.
No. 3, 202 yards, Par 3: This picturesque par three features water and bunkers on the left. The proper club selection is required for a good position on this two-tiered green. If the green is missed on the right side there is a great opportunity to get up and down for par.
No. 7, 168 yards, Par 3: This beautiful par three has a large bunker on the left side of the green as well as a waterfall on the right, which empties into a small lake at the front of the green. Don’t let its beauty or its short yardage distract you. You must hit a great shot to score on this hole.
There are ten Par 4’s at La Quinta Country Club with the majority of those holes ranging between 350 and 450 yards.
No. 10, 405 yards, Par 4: The back nine starts off with a short dogleg left. It’s best not to cheat the corner due to the large eucalyptus and mesquite trees on the left. By using the aiming bunker on the far, right side of the dogleg, the player will set up a perfect approach to the green. The fairway slopes from right to left from the turning point all the way to the green. This will help the ball feed into the proper positions on the fairway as well as on the green.
No. 18, 412 yards, Par 4: Eighteen’s beauty begins at the tee box with a full view of the fairway, lake, clubhouse, and a backdrop of the Santa Rosa Mountains. Avoiding the water left off the tee and again for the approach shot near the green are the challenges on this great finishing hole. The right side is framed with a lone fairway bunker and a series of greenside bunkers.
There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 5, No. 6, No. 11, and No. 13.
No. 5, 516 yards, Par 5: The first par five rewards a long drive aimed at the bunkers on the left side of the fairway. There is an opportunity to reach this green in two. However, there is only a small opening in front of the green where the ball can enter. For the player who wishes to lay up, the shot should favor the left side deep down the fairway. This will leave the player with a short pitch and a chance to make a birdie.
No. 11, 543 yards, Par 5: Eleven is a par five that plays like the letter “s”. A good tee shot should finish just to the right of the left fairway bunker. This will set up an opportunity to carry the fairway bunker, which guards the green, and possibly run the ball up on the green. If the player elects to lay up, the best landing area is left of the fairway bunker. From this point, the approach shot must finish on the correct level of the three-tiered green to capture a birdie.
The three possible course rotations will be as follows:
R1: PGA West Stadium -> R2: La Quinta -> R3: Nicklaus Tournament
R1: La Quinta -> R2: Nicklaus Tournament -> R3: PGA West Stadium
R1: Nicklaus Tournament -> R2: PGA West Stadium -> R3: La Quinta
Key Statistics:
The Sony Open occurs at the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
PGA West Pete Dye StadiumCourse
PGA West Nicklaus TournamentCourse
La Quinta CountryClub
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.70
280.28
N/A
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
59%
68%
62%
GIR Percentage
66%
67%
71%
69%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
28.17
N/A
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
64%
65%
65%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.31
0.31
0.33
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at La Quinta Country Club.
Good Drives Gained
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Martin
Andrew Putnam
Ben Kholes
Greyson Sigg
Mark Hubbard
Xander Schauffele
Chan Kim
Ben Griffin
Doug Ghim
Bud Cauley
Strokes Gained: Approach
A strong iron game is crucial for success at this event, as demonstrated by recent history.With low scores typically winning the event (e.g., -20 or better), players must hit their approach shots close to the pins to set up birdie opportunities.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Lucas Glover
J.J. Spaun
Antoine Rozner
Mac Meissner
Tom Kim
Kurt Kitayama
Matteo Manassero
Matt Kuchar
Charley Hoffman
David Lipsky
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass, Poa)
The green complexes at PGA West’s Pete Dye Stadium Course and PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course are TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa overseed .115”. At La Quinta Country Club the green complexes are TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis/ryegrass overseed .105”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Braden Thornberry
Matt Kuchar
Max Greyserman
Mackenzie Hughes
Davis Riley
Sam Burns
Taylor Montgomery
Jason Day
Ben Silverman
Chad Ramey
Par 3 Scoring
On the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the par 3s are notoriously challenging and tend to play closer to par. In contrast, at La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, players often score below par on the par 3s, capitalizing on their more forgiving layouts. While par 5s are typically the primary source of birdies, the par 3s present key scoring opportunities that can help players separate themselves from the field. With a low cut line around -10, minimizing mistakes on par 3s is crucial. Bogeys or worse on these holes can quickly disrupt momentum in such a low-scoring event.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Nico Echavarria
Michael Thorbjornsen
Brian Harman
Vince Whaley
Sam Burns
Harry Hall
David Lipsky
Harris English
J.J. Spaun
Matt McCarty
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400, 400-450 Yards
PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course:
Three of the ten Par 4’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 350-400 Yards.
Three of the ten Par 4’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 400-450 Yards.
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course:
Three of the ten Par 4’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West range between 350-400 Yards.
Four of the ten Par 4’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West range between 400-450 Yards.
La Quinta Country Club:
Four of the ten Par 4’s at La Quinta Country Club range between 350-400 Yards.
Four of the ten Par 4’s at La Quinta Country Club range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Joel Dahmen
Mark Hubbard
Ben Kholes
Jhonattan Vegas
Max Greyserman
Chris Kirk
Wyndham Clark
Justin Thomas
Sungjae Im
J.J. Spaun
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Greyson Sigg
Sam Burns
Beau Hossler
Braden Thornberry
Patrick Cantlay
Jacob Bridgeman
J.T. Poston
Lucas Glover
Daniel Berger
Ryo Hisatsune
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550, 550-600 Yards (x3)
PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course:
One of the four Par 5’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West ranges between 500-550 Yards.
Three of the four Par 5’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 550-600 Yards.
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course:
Three of the four Par 5’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West range between 500-550 Yards.
One of the four Par 5’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West ranges between 550-600 Yards.
La Quinta Country Club:
Two of the four Par 5’s at La Quinta Country Club range between 500-550 Yards.
Two of the four Par 5’s at La Quinta Country Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Griffin
Michael Kim
Ryo Hisatsune
Matti Schmid
Justin Thomas
Jhonattan vegas
Davis Thompson
Max Greyserman
Jackson Suber
Joe Highsmith
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Kurt Kitayama
Justin Lower
Wesley Bryan
Matti Schmid
Alex Smalley
Ryan Gerard
Chandler Phillips
Max Greyserman
Patrick Rodgers
Bill Haas
Birdies or Better Gained
Low scores are a staple of the tournament, with winning scores typically around -23 or better. Players must capitalize on birdie opportunities, especially on the Par 4’s and Par 5’s.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Harry Hall
Sam Burns
Max Greyserman
Nico Echavarria
Joe Highsmith
Michael Thorbjornsen
Matti Schmid
Jacob Bridgeman
Si Woo Kim
Jesper Svensson
Proximity Gained: 75-100 Yards & 150-175 Yards
The Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 75-100 and 150-175 yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Alejandro Tosti
Matt Kuchar
Chris Kirk
Francesco Molinari
Jason Dufner
Camilo Villegas
Keith Mitchell
Davis Riley
William Mouw
Bud Cauley
Leaders in Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Kholes
Harris English
Nico Echavarria
Tom Kim
Andrew Novak
Jason Dufner
Michael Kim
Matteo Manassero
Hayden Buckley
Ben Silverman
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at PGA West’s Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club has not been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at the American Express, Last 100 Rounds):
Adam Hadwin
Si Woo Kim
Harris English
Ben Griffin
Patrick Cantlay
Brian Harman
Sungjae Im
Justin Thomas
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Sam Burns
The Field:
This year’s American Express will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winner – PGA/U.S. Open Championship
Winner – Masters Tournament
Winner – British Open
Winners of the Arnold Palmer, Memorial, Genesis (Last 3 Years)
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
Career Money Exemption
Sponsor Exemptions: DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt
Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
Designated Sponsor Exemption
PGA Club Professional Champion – 6 Events
PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
Open Qualifying
Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Major Medical Extension
PGA TOUR University #1 – Prior Season
Leading 10 players (not otherwise exempt) on DP World Tour
Players 2-30 on the Prior Season Korn Ferry Tour Points List
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Nick Dunlap (2024), Si Woo Kim (2021), Jason Dufner (2016), Bill Hass (2015, 2010), Jhonattan Villegas (2011), Charley Hoffman (2007)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Aldrich Potgieter, Antoine Rozner, Blades Brown, Braden Thornberry, Cristobal Del Solar, Danny Walker, Frankie Capan III, Jackson Suber, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, Kaito Onishi, Kevin Velo, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Matthew Riedel, Michael Thorbjornsen, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Rikuya Hoshino, Ryan Gerard, Steven Fisk, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Thomas Rosenmueller, Tim Widing, Victor Perez, Will Chandler, William Mouw
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Sungjae Im (+1200)
Sungjae Im kicked off his 2025 season with an impressive T3 finish at The Sentry. While he didn’t capture a win last season, he displayed excellent form late in the year with four consecutive top-15 finishes. This marks his seventh appearance at this tournament, where he’s consistently performed well, finishing inside the top 25 in every outing. His best finish was T10 in 2020.
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Justin Thomas began his 2025 PGA TOUR season two weeks ago at The Sentry, finishing T26. He closed out a challenging 2024 season with strong performances, including a T2 at the ZOZO Championship and a 3rd-place finish at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his fourth appearance at this tournament, having missed the cut in 2014, finished T7 in 2015, and placed T3 last year.
Sam Burns (+1600)
Sam Burns opened his 2025 season at The Sentry with a solid T8 finish. Like Sungjae, he didn’t win last season but closed strong with four straight top-15 finishes. This will be his sixth appearance at this event, with four top-20 finishes already to his name.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
Patrick Cantlay started his 2025 season two weeks ago at The Sentry, finishing T15. Despite not securing a victory last season, he displayed consistency with four straight top-20 finishes to close out the year. This will be his seventh appearance at this tournament, with his best finish being a runner-up in 2021.
Will There Be a Playoff at the American Express? (Yes +350 / No -500)
While the American Express’s winning margin has been 1-2 strokes in each of the past six editions, the tournament has not been decided by a playoff since 2018, when Jon Rahm triumphed over Andrew Landry.
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Xander Schauffele
4
68.29
3
3
–
–
–
Davis Thompson
2
66.25
21
2
–
–
–
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3
67.00
2
11
40
–
–
Keith Mitchell
3
67.92
9
22
–
–
–
Benjamin Griffin
2
66.68
9
32
–
–
–
Sungjae Im
6
67.71
25
18
11
12
10
Adam Hadwin
9
67.47
6
18
25
32
–
Sam Burns
5
67.39
6
11
–
MC
6
Tony Finau
7
68.15
25
16
40
4
14
Francesco Molinari
6
68.78
–
–
6
8
MC
Tom Hoge
9
68.87
17
32
2
MC
6
Brian Harman
11
68.90
–
MC
3
8
21
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
The American Express
The American Express
The American Express
The American Express
The American Express
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Bill Haas
20
68.76
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Nate Lashley
7
70.70
MC
MC
MC
MC
WD
Peter Malnati
10
70.19
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Andrew Novak
3
71.78
MC
MC
MC
–
–
John Pak
3
70.56
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Rafael Campos
2
74.20
–
–
–
MC
MC
Tyson Alexander
2
73.17
MC
MC
–
–
–
Max McGreevy
2
71.33
–
MC
MC
–
–
Chad Ramey
2
71.17
MC
–
MC
–
–
Joel Dahmen
4
71.09
MC
–
–
MC
–
Kristoffer Ventura
2
70.40
–
–
–
MC
MC
Hayden Buckley
2
70.33
MC
–
MC
–
–
David Skinns
2
70.17
MC
–
MC
–
–
Billy Horschel
8
69.66
MC
–
–
–
MC
Chez Reavie
15
69.32
52
MC
MC
MC
MC
Brice Garnett
8
70.67
–
MC
70
MC
MC
Jhonattan Vegas
13
69.50
MC
MC
MC
–
55
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Nick Dunlap (-29)
Price: 350-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Nick Dunlap
57th
17th
4th
52nd
9th
2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
Price: 13-2 (+650)
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
13th
6th
7th
22nd
61st
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
Price: 175-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Hudson Swafford
45th
11th
4th
25th
2nd
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
Price: 66-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Si Woo Kim
10th
1st
2nd
16th
8th
2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
Price: 200-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Andrew Landry
5th
13th
9th
65th
6th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Nick Dunlap
MC – Butterfield Bermuda Championship (PGA)
2 – World Amateur Team Championship (Amateur)
2 – Hamptons Intercollegiate (Amateur)
WON – SEC Stroke Play (Amateur)
T8 – OFCC Fighting Illini Invitational (Amateur)
2023: Jon Rahm
WON – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
WON – DP World Tour Championship (DPWT)
WON – acciona Open de Espana (DPWT)
2022: Hudson Swafford
T48 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T35 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
T33 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
T32 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
2021: Si Woo Kim
T25 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
T34 – The Masters (MAJ)
MC – Vivint Houston Open (MC)
T17 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
2020: Andrew Landry
MC – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
MC – Houston Open (PGA)
MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Nick Dunlap
Tournament Debut
2023: Jon Rahm
The American Express
Desert Classic
CareerBuilder Challenge
CareerBuilder Challenge
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
2022
2019
2018
2017
Jon Rahm
T14
6
WON
T34
2022: Hudson Swafford
The American Express
The American Express
Desert Classic
CareerBuilder Challenge
CareerBuilder Challenge
CareerBuilder Challenge
Humana Challenge
Humana Challenge
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Nicklaus Private Course, PGA West Palmer Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Nicklaus Private Course, PGA West Palmer Course, La Quinta Country Club
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Hudson Swafford
MC
MC
T65
T29
WON
T56
MC
T25
2021: Si Woo Kim
The American Express
Desert Classic
CareerBuilder Challenge
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
2020
2019
2016
Si Woo Kim
WD
T40
T9
2020: Andrew Landry
Desert Classic
CareerBuilder Challenge
CareerBuilder Challenge
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
2019
2018
2016
Andrew Landry
T28
2
MC
Picks:
Outrights
Max Greyserman (+3500) – Bet365
Risk 0.23 Units to win 8.05 Units
Max Greyserman finished the 2024 season strong, with a T2 at the ZOZO Championship and a 4th at the World Wide Technology Championship. He carried that momentum into the 2025 season, finishing T24 at the Sony Open last week.
Greyserman made his debut at The American Express last year, finishing T56. He’s come close to a win several times, including runner-up finishes at both the Wyndham Championship and the 3M Open. With his strong recent form, improved putting, and solid iron play, Greyserman is well-positioned to contend this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
85th
3rd
43rd
3rd
30th
5th
35th
8th
8th
117th
113th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Ben Griffin (+6000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.14 Units to win 8.40 Units
Ben Griffin wrapped up the 2024 season on a strong note with four consecutive top-25 finishes during the FedExCup Fall Swing. He followed that up with a T45 finish at the Sony Open last week.
Griffin has competed at The American Express twice before, finishing T32 in 2023 and a solid T9 in 2024. With his recent form and a solid track record at this event, Griffin is worth considering this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
25th
72nd
8th
16th
23rd
27th
20th
1st
38th
68th
67th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Eric Cole (+6500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.13 Units to win 8.45 Units
Eric Cole wrapped up the 2024 season with strong form, posting three top-20 finishes in his last four events. He’s carried that momentum into the 2025 season, finishing 52nd at The Sentry and an impressive 5th at the Sony Open last week.
This marks Cole’s third appearance at The American Express, where he finished T36 in 2023 and T21 in 2024. With his ball-striking ability, accuracy off the tee, and recent success with the putter, Cole has the tools to contend if he stays hot on the greens.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
27th
21st
90th
32nd
13th
106th
86th
124th
16th
57th
53rd
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Lee Hodges (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 Units to win 8.00 Units
Lee Hodges ended the 2024 season on a strong note, recording three top-16 finishes in his last four events. He carried that momentum into the 2025 season, finishing T10 at the Sony Open last week. This will mark his fourth appearance at The American Express, where he shined with a T3 finish in his debut (2022) but missed the cut in his last two trips to La Quinta (2023, 2024).
Hodges struggled with his putting throughout the 2024 season but showed improvement last week, gaining strokes on the greens at the Sony Open. If he can maintain that progress with the putter, his strong ball striking could make him a serious contender this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
31st
58th
40th
13th
199th
70th
52nd
27th
138th
120th
84th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Mac Meissner (+8000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.10 Units to win 8.00 Units
Mac Meissner kicked off his 2025 PGA TOUR season with an impressive T21 finish at the Sony Open, where he ranked 2nd in SG: Approach in the field. While he struggled in his debut at The American Express last season, missing the cut, he enters this year’s event in much stronger form.
Meissner’s success typically hinges on his putting, which often correlates to top-20 finishes when he performs well on the greens. Additionally, he has shown improvement on this specific grass type, which could give him an edge. If his putter heats up, Meissner could be in the mix this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
4th
25th
12th
90th
31st
79th
92nd
39th
26th
32nd
63rd
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Lucas Glover (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.08 Units to win 8.00 Units
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
1st
26th
22nd
23rd
20th
20th
8th
150th
21st
80th
22nd
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Michael Kim (+10000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.08 Units to win 8.00 Units
Michael Kim finished the 2024 season on a strong note, recording a T5 at the Shriners Children’s Open, T30 at the World Wide Technology Championship, T12 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and T11 at the RSM Classic. However, that momentum didn’t carry into the 2025 season, as he missed the cut at the Sony Open, primarily due to struggles with his approach play and putting.
Despite the slow start, Kim has a proven track record at The American Express, highlighted by a T6 finish last season. If he can rediscover his recent form, Kim has the potential to contend at a great value this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
38th
133rd
24th
35th
18th
49th
69th
2nd
78th
100th
7th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Matt Kuchar (+12000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.07 Units to win 8.40 Units
At 46 years old, Matt Kuchar continues to perform at a high level, opening the season with a T21 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, where he gained strokes in every category. This week, he returns to a venue he knows well, with six top-25 finishes in ten prior appearances at The American Express. Kuchar has come close to victory here twice, finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2015.
Although he missed the cut last year due to poor iron play, Kuchar enters this year’s event in solid form, having gained strokes on approach in 10 of his last 12 events. With his course history and recent consistency, Kuchar offers intriguing longshot value.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
8th
1st
18th
47th
53rd
13th
30th
116th
20th
2nd
151st
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Justin Lower (+15000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.06 Units to win 9.00 Units
Justin Lower made his 2025 season debut last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii, finishing T37. This week marks his fourth appearance at The American Express, where he missed the cut in 2022 but improved with finishes of T41 in 2023 and T39 last season.
Lower ended the 2024 season on a high note, securing a T2 finish at the World Wide Technology Championship and T5 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. His putting and iron play have shown marked improvement in recent events. Known for thriving in low-scoring, birdie-heavy tournaments, Lower could surprise if he gets hot with the putter this week. A longshot, but worth a look given his recent form.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
54th
17th
63rd
19th
58th
68th
17th
46th
2nd
55th
108th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Top 20 (Inc. Ties)
Wyndham Clark (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.40 Units
Wyndham Clark opened the 2025 season with a strong showing, finishing T15 at The Sentry. This week, he’ll make his seventh appearance at The American Express, where he’s recorded two top-20 finishes in previous starts. Clark’s solid form and familiarity with the event make him an appealing play at this number.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
89th
37th
31st
37th
14th
7th
32nd
114th
118th
29th
121st
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Si Woo Kim (+150) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.50 Units
Si Woo Kim hasn’t had the smoothest start to 2025, finishing T32 at The Sentry and missing the cut at last week’s Sony Open. His struggles in Hawaii were largely due to his putting, as he lost 2.86 strokes on the greens. However, as I noted yesterday, Kim has a tendency to rebound strongly following poor putting performances.
Kim also has a strong history at The American Express, including a victory in 2021 and top-25 finishes in each of the last three editions. Given his track record and potential for a bounce-back week, Kim offers solid value at this number.
I’ve seen a lot of buzz around Si Woo Kim this week, a player I hadn't considered much, so I decided to dig into his recent stats. His main weakness has been putting, and at the Sony Open, he lost 2.86 strokes on the green. However, looking back at the last two times he's lost…
Michael Thorbjornsen makes his 2025 PGA TOUR season debut this week after withdrawing from the Sony Open. He showed solid form during the FedExCup Fall Swing, posting two top-10 finishes in his last three starts (T8 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T8 at the RSM Classic).
This will be Thorbjornsen’s first appearance at The American Express, but the course setup should suit his game well. With his recent consistency and potential to adapt quickly, he’s a strong value pick this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
34th
9th
102nd
6th
3rd
98th
40th
134th
22nd
41st
43rd
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Francesco Molinari (+400) – BetMGM
Risk 0.50 Units to win 2.00 Units
Francesco Molinari makes his 2025 PGA TOUR Season debut this week. During the FedExCup Fall Swing, he finished T17 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship but missed the cut at the RSM Classic. Despite mixed recent form, Molinari boasts an impressive track record at this event, with four top-15 finishes in six prior appearances. His last two starts in La Quinta were particularly strong, finishing T8 in 2021 and T6 in 2022.
While this is certainly a longshot, the number is appealing given his course history. Molinari may lack length off the tee, but his accuracy and improved iron play over his last three starts make him an intriguing pick. Additionally, his putting has shown noticeable progress, further bolstering his chances this week.
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda, Poa)
GoodDrives Gained
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Par 3Scoring
Par 4 Scoring:350-400Yards
Par 4 Scoring:400-450Yards
Par 5 Scoring:500-550Yards
Par 5 Scoring:550-600Yards
Prox.: 75-100 Yards
Prox.: 150-175 Yards
23rd
115th
20th
46th
46th
52nd
38th
44th
137th
4th
54th
Rank amongst field, Last 24 rounds
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes solo to recap the weekend! First, we get into the good the bad and the ugly. Then, Kiev talks about the college football national championship. Does Notre Dame have a chance? We have a Free Play! Then, we look into the early NFL lines and forecast some moves. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
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Commanders vs Buccaneers -3 O/U 50.5
This should be a fun high flying game between two teams that many did not expect in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield has been poised this season leading his offense to rank in the top four in scoring at 29.5 points per game. Certainly a great feat, but we also must credit rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels who brought his offense ranking 5th at 28.5 points per game. Both of these teams are great at rushing the ball with Tampa ranking 3rd in yards per rush at 5.3 and Washington ranking 4th at 5.0. Tampa Bay gets the nod for passing as they rank 3rd in passing yards per game at 250 while Washington is 17th at 215. On defense, the Commanders are great at stopping the pass ranking 3rd while Tampa Bay ranks a bad 29th. Against the run, Tampa is the much better team with Vita Vea clocking up the middle ranking 9th in opponent yards per rush at 4.3 while Washington ranks 28th allowing 4.8. Both defenses have their issues. One thing that Todd Bowles likes to do is blitz. Jayden Daniels ranks 6th against pressure rate on PFF.com. The path to victory for the Commanders is to get Jayden Daniels passing the ball and allowing him to use his legs. The path to victory for Tampa is to run the ball and keep the Commanders honest. I really think numbers wise, that these two teams are very closely matched. Maybe you can give an edge to Baker Mayfield for not being a rookie quarterback, but that’s about it. I will give a slight coaching advantage to Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as they are the better situational coaches over Todd Bowles and Liam Coen. This game should be pick-em on a neutral field and I am not giving the Buccaneers three points for home field advantage.
Commanders +3 – 1.5 stars
Teaser: Bills to -2.5 with the Rams to +8.5 – 3 stars – I expect the bills to take care of business as they had a nice week off last week. I also expect the Rams to show up even with the distractions. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the gang have been there before.
