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Podcast 661 – 106 – 24 – With Paul Stone – College Bowls and Playoffs – NFL Week 16 – Sports Betting
We have a HUGE show for you today! Paul Stone @PaulStoneSports is back to break down some huge college football games! First, the guys get into who should have won or at least been there in the awards market. Next, Paul and Kiev talk some college football bowls! Then, the guys get right into the first round of the playoffs with some thoughts, analysis and Free Plays!. After that, the guys give out a few beer bet bangers for long shots. After that, Kiev talks NFL week 16 with some more analysis and plays. Then, we give out our refuse to lose teaser that is 11-4 for the season! Finally, we get into some sharp money movement and recap our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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NFL Week 16 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:
- The Bills could flatten out hosting the Patriots after the big Lions win.
- The Eagles could be slow again after the battle of Pennsylvania.
- Tampa Bay could sloth after the Chargers win.
- The Rams could be flat after 49ers win at the Jets.
Get Up Spots:
- The Lions will want to beat the Bears to stay in the top spot.
- The 49ers will want to save embarrassment losing to Mike McDaniel.
- The Browns will want to ruin the draft pick just to try and beat the Bengals.
Look Ahead Spots:
- The Cowboys might look past the Buccaneers to the Eagles.
- The Packers could look past the Saints to the Vikings.
- The Vikings could look past the Seahawks to the Packers.
Short Rest:
- Falcons after Monday Night hosting the Giants.
- Bears after Monday Night hosting the Lions.
- Vikings after Monday Night at the Seahawks.
- Raiders after Monday Night hosting the Jaguars.
Long Rest:
- The 49ers after Thursday Night at the Dolphins.
- The Rams after Thursday Night at the Jets.
Revenge Spots:
- Bears will want revenge against the Lions HA!
- Miami might want revenge for losing last year to the 49ers.
- Browns may want to beat the Bengals this time around.
- The Commanders will want revenge against the Eagles.
- The Ravens will want revenge against the Steelers.
- Broncos at the Chargers is one.
NFL Week 15 Misleading Final Scores
The Dolphins out-gained the Texans 224 to 181 yet lost 20-12. A 4-1 turnover ratio fried the fish.
The Jaguars out-gained the Jets 421 to 400 yet lost 32-25. A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible Jags defense got them.
The Titans out-gained the Bengals 374 to 370 yet lost 37-27. A massive 6-4 turnover ratio chopped down the Titans.
The Colts out-gained the Broncos 310 to 193 yet won 31-13. A 5-3 turnover ratio and just boneheaded play killed the Colts.
Wednesday Free Play Video:
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NCAAF: WKU/JMU
NHL: Leafs/Stars
NCAAB: Xav/UCONN
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College Football Bowl Games December 17th – December 19th Info, Plays, & Leans – Sports Betting
Tuesday, Dec. 17
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia +5 O/U 58.5
Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Memphis’s Motivation: High – This team gets to beat a bigger conference!
West Virginia’s Motivation: Medium Low – The Mountaineers fired coach Neal Brown and I can’t imagine there is much motivation here.
Home: None
Key Guy’s missing:
West Virginia –
- WR Traylon Ray (28-426-4)
- WR Jaden Bray (hasn’t played since Week 6)
- CB Ayden Garnes (original starter but hasn’t played since Week 7)
- S Aubrey Burks (original starter but hasn’t played since Week 7)
- Top LB Josiah Trotter to transfer
- CB TJ Crandall (122 snaps) to transfer
Memphis –
- None
Net YPP: Memphis +1.03
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Memphis has the much better numbers, but West Virginia’s strength of schedule was much higher this year. West Virginia cannot guard the pass ranking 127th in opponent pass EPA while Memphis is 16th is pass attempts.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Western Kentucky: Tyson Helton 3-1
- West Virginia: None as Chad Scott will server as intern. 0-0
Verdict: The Mountaineers also have a bunch of guys potentially opting out as coach Neal Brown has been fired. This could be a blowout.
Play: Lean Memphis
Wednesday, Dec. 18
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison -7 O/U 52
Location: FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
Time: 5:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium High – Tyson Helton is a nice 3-1 ATS in bowl games, but they lost their quarterback to transfer. Lots of transfers for WKU in this portal.
James Madison’s Motivation: Medium High – JMU will want to win, but they had also lost their quarterback Alonza Barnett III to injury.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Western Kentucky:
Injures:
- LT Travon Taylor
- CB Anthony Johnson Jr.
Western Kentucky Transfer Portal
- Starting QB Caden Veltkamp
- Starting WR Easton Messer
- Starting LB Darius Thomas
- Starting DE Deante McCray
- Starting NT Dallas Walker
- Starting DT Hosea Wheeler
- Starting S Demarko Williams
- Starting K Lucas Carneiro
- DE Marcus Patterson ( 344 snaps)
- S Alex Ford (170 snaps)
James Madison:
- Starting QB Alzona Bartnett will miss game to injury.
- Starting LT Jesse Ramil to transfer
- DL Darold DeNgohe (275 snaps) to transfer
- WR Max Moss (51 snaps) to transfer
Net YPP: James Madison +1.23
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Caden Veltkamp will play for Western Kentucky, but does that matter? James Madison will run the ball ranking 30th in rushing success rate to Western Kentucky ranking 118th on defense.
College Bowl ATS:
- Western Kentucky: Tyson Helton 3-1
- James Madison: Bob Chesney 0-0
Verdict: QB or not, James Madison has much less transfers and I expect them to run all over Western Kentucky.
Play: James Madison -7
Art of Sport LA Bowl: Cal vs. UNLV -1 O/U 48
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: Medium – Cal will want to win this to save embarrassment from lost to UNLV, but they may be without a quarterback.
UNLV’s Motivation: Medium Low – Barry Odem is gone to Purdue and this team had playoff hopes all the way to the Mountain West Championship game, yet nobody has opted out as of yet…
Home: I think Cal may have a 1.5 point advantage even though San Francisco is farther away. Home State and good to make a bowl.
Key Guy’s missing:
Cal:
- Starting QB Fernando Mendoza in the portal.
- LT Nick Morrow is injured.
- Starting WR Nzyiah Hunter (leading receiver)
- Interior OL Matthew Wykoff (314 snaps)
UNLV:
- None as of yet
Net YPP: UNLV +.67
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Cal can just not run the ball well ranking 114th in yards per rush. They will have to rely on the back up quarterback Chandler Rogers which is a big issue.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Cal: Justin Wilcox, 1-2
- UNLV: Del Alexander, 0-0
Verdict: If Hajj Malik Williams plays this game, UNLV should beat Cal. I think the guys audition for new coach Dan Mullen.
Play: UNLV PK
Thursday Dec. 19
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston +6 O/U 48.5
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time: 7 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN2
Georgia Southern’s Motivation: Low – Clay Helton is only 1-6 ATS in bowl games. I am very concerned that they care about beating a lessor team.
Sam Houston’s Motivation: Medium High – Sam Houston had a very good second season in FBS, yet many in transfer portal.
Home: Slight for Sam Houston at .5 as they are about 350 miles away from New Orleans
Key Guys Missing?
Georgia Southern:
- WR DeAndre Buchannon (63 snaps)
- Backup QB Dexter Williams
Sam Houston:
- They have a ton of guys in the portal, but many say that they will play.
Net YPP: Sam Houston +1.36
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Georgia Southern’s strength of schedule was much more difficult ranking 77th to 119th for Sam Houston. In sayin that, I could see Sam Houston being able to run the ball some here. The problem is that Sam Houston can’t play catchup well at all, so if they get behind by 7 or more, they could be toast.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Georgia Southern: Clay Helton, 1-6
- Sam Houston: Brad Cornelson, 0-0
Verdict: Lean Sam Houston
References:
Fantasy Football Week 16 Playoffs Continue
Byes: None
Key Injuries:
RB Trey Benson with an ankle injury.
RB Nick Chubb broke his foot and should be out for the season.
QB Jameis Winston may have lost his Job.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin hurt his quad and didn’t return.
RB David Montgomery with a knee is out for the season.
WR Alec Pierce had a concussion.
QB Patrick Mahomes had a high ankle injury.
WR Jalen Waddle had a knee injury.
RB Alvin Kamara left with a groin injury.
QB Geno Smith left with a knee injury.
WR AJ Brown hurt his ankle some against the Steelers.
TE Zach Ertz went out with a concussion.
Waiver Wire:
QB Spencer Rattler for the Saints may be the guy this week.
QB Carson Wentz for the Chiefs could be a streamer.
RB Craig Reynolds is now relevant for the Lions.
RB Kendre Miller for the Saints may get the start
TE Brenden Strange for the Engram injury.
QB Aaron Rogers could make a few passes.
TE Ben Sinnott for the Commanders if Ertz can’t go.
QB Sam Howell for the Geno injury if you hate yourself.
WR Malik Washington for the Waddell injury is interesting.
RB DeeJay Dallas for the Cardinals is relevant now with Benson hurting.
RB Jerome Ford for Cleveland is now the bell cow.
RB Pierre Strong for the Browns is the handcuff.
RB Trey Sermon if Taylor is in the doghouse for dropping the ball before the endzone.
Sleepers:
RB Jerome Ford against Cincinnati’s piss poor defense.
RB Tajae Spears against the Colts is nice this week.
QB Baker Mayfield against the Cowboys slaps.
RB Craig Reynolds against the Bears makes sense.
Min defense against the Seahawks is interesting.
QB Caleb Williams against Detroit’s defense may be an option.
WR DJ Moore against the Lions is back on.
WR Jameson Williams against the Bears is easy.
TE Jake Ferguson against Tampa Bay is interesting.
WR Romeo Doubs against the Saints is magical.
QB Tua Tagovailoa against the 49ers could be big.
Busts:
WR D’Andre Hopkins with Wentz at quarterback is rough.
TE Travis Kelce with Wentz at QB is bad.
QB Russell Wilson against the Ravens.
RB Najee Harris against the Ravens is bad.
RB Kenneth Walker against the Vikings is rough.
QB CJ Stroud against the Chiefs isn’t good.
RB Joe Mixon against the Chiefs is wrong.
WR Terry McLaurin against the Eagles is suspect.
RB Brian Robinson against the Eagles is also rough.
QB Anthony Richardson against the Titans doesn’t play.
Nasty Sleeper:
RB Sincere McCormick vs the Jaguars is huge
Tuesday Free Play Video:
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3 Free Selections:
NCAAF: Memphis/WV
NBA: Bucks/Thunder
NHL: Rangers/Predators
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Podcast 660 – 105 – 24 – College Football & NFL Recap – College Bowls Dec 17-19 – Fantasy Football Week 16 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we break down some bowl games from December 17th – 19th with some Free Plays. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, sleepers and busts! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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