Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, MI
Broadcast: CBS
The Wisconsin Badgers are set to face off against the Michigan State Spartans in a highly anticipated matchup. The game will take place at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center in East Lansing on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at 11:30 AM MST.
Strengths: The Badgers rank seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have a strong field goal rate and are careful with the basketball, ranking 29th in turnovers given up.
Strengths: The Spartans are known for their defensive prowess, ranking sixth in the nation. They have held five straight opponents to less than 70 points.
Matchup Analysis:
Offense vs. Defense: This game will be a clash between Wisconsin’s efficient offense and Michigan State’s strong defense. The Badgers’ ability to shoot at a high rate and protect the basketball will be crucial in countering the Spartans’ defensive stops and transition attacks.
Home Advantage: Michigan State has a strong home record, being 13-1 at the Breslin Center this season. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.
Prediction:
The game is expected to be a tight contest. While Michigan State has the home advantage and a strong defense, Wisconsin’s efficient offense and careful ball handling could give them the edge. Although both teams play at an average pace, I think that points will be scored as both Michigan State and Wisconsin play very efficient basketball. These two teams both rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency. Might get some late game fouling to help.
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Maryland vs Penn State +5.5 O/U
Game Details
Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, Pennsylvania
TV Channel: Big Ten Network
Team Statistics
Maryland Terrapins
Record: 21-7 (11-6 Big Ten)
Points per Game: 82.6
Points Allowed per Game: 67.0
Field Goal Percentage: 48.3%
Three-Point Percentage: 37.0%
Rebounds per Game: 34.5
Assists per Game: 13.3
Steals per Game: 6.1
Blocks per Game: 4.5
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 15-14 (5-13 Big Ten)
Points per Game: 79.4
Points Allowed per Game: 73.3
Field Goal Percentage: 45.8%
Three-Point Percentage: 31.0%
Rebounds per Game: 26.9
Assists per Game: 13.6
Steals per Game: 6.4
Blocks per Game: 3.2
Key Players
Maryland Terrapins
Derik Queen: 15.6 points per game, 9.1 rebounds per game
Ja’Kobi Gillespie: 2.7 made three-pointers per game
Penn State Nittany Lions
Ace Baldwin Jr.: 14 points per game, 7.2 assists per game, 2.4 steals per game
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: 11.5 points per game over the last 10 games
Matchup Preview
Maryland Terrapins: The Terrapins come into this game with a strong record of 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big Ten. They are ranked No. 16 and have been performing well this season, despite a recent heart-breaking loss to Michigan State. Maryland’s key players include Derik Queen, who leads the team in scoring with 15.9 points per game, and Julian Reese, who averages 14 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
Penn State Nittany Lions: The Nittany Lions have a record of 15-14 overall and 5-13 in the Big Ten. They are looking to bounce back from a recent loss to Indiana. Penn State’s key players include Ace Baldwin Jr., who leads the team in scoring and assists with 13.7 points and 7.3 assists per game, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser, who averages 12.9 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.
Prediction: Maryland is in a tricky spot here. They just dropped out of the sweepstakes to win the big 10 regular season with a huge last second half court shot courtesy of Michigan State. Don’t get me wrong, Maryland is still vying for position to secure big 10 tournament byes, but that took a pretty big hit with that last lost. Penn State on the other hand has to win this game just to stay in the post season mix as they won’t even make the Big 10 tournament without most likely winning a minimum of two of their last three games! Metrically, Maryland is definitely the superior team, but Big 10 home dogs have proven sharp this year with Penn State leading the way at 2-0. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Penn State. The Lions shoot a nice 56.1% effective FG% at home. I’ll take the home dog here.
Penn State +5.5 – 2 stars
Bonus Play: Georgia +5.5 – 2 stars – I know that Georgia has been a pretty bad road team, but they are right on the bubble and can’t afford to drop this one. Texas is also on the bubble, but they should not be laying points like this to a team that is better than they are. The Bulldogs will have advantages from downtown ranking 56th in adjusted 3 point percentage to Texas only ranking 132nd in defending it. I see a close game here.
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56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
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63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
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62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
We have a great show for you today! Paul Stone @PaulStoneSports from VSIN is back to break down some college hoops! First, Kiev gets into some college basketball late year situations and trends. Next, Paul comes on and the guys get right into some hoops. We start with some conference tournament thoughts as well as some final four. Then, Paul and Kiev talk about some buy low and sell high teams that could have some value coming up here in crunch time. After that, the guys get into some of the biggest games and good betting spots for the weekend with some Free Plays. Finally, Kiev recaps our prospective plays for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at PGA National Resort’s Champion Course marks the ninth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season and the kickoff to the “Florida Swing.”
The Florida Swing of the PGA Tour kicks off with the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. This tournament dates back to 1972, originally known as the Jackie Gleason-Inverrary Classic. It was co-sponsored by National Airlines until 1981, when American Motors Corporation took over. Honda became the title sponsor in 1982, holding the role for over four decades until 2023, when Cognizant, an IT company, stepped in, bringing a new name — the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.
Since 2007, PGA National has been the event’s permanent home, featuring six courses, with “The Champion” serving as the tournament’s battleground. Designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981, the course has seen multiple renovations led by Jack Nicklaus’ design team. Major updates came in 2014, including adjustments to the par-four 14th hole and expansions of several greens (Nos. 1, 9, 15, and 17). In 2019, palmetto palms were removed from the 9th hole to ease approach shots. More changes followed in 2022, with bunkers removed from Nos. 13 and 16, and reductions made to those on Nos. 17 and 18.
Following the 2023 tournament, the course’s par was adjusted from 70 to 71, with the 10th hole reclassified from a par 4 to a par 5. In May 2023, the fairway lines were expanded to match the grassing patterns from 2012-13, adding an acre of fairway grass compared to the previous year.
2, Jack Nicklaus (1977, 1978); Johnny Miller (1980, 1983); Mark Calcavecchia (1987, 1998); Pádraig Harrington (2005, 2015)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (PGA National Resort (The Champion Course)):
266, Chris Kirk (2023), Eric Cole (2023)
18-Hole Record (PGA National Resort (The Champion Course)):
61, Brian Harman (Round 2, 2012), Matt Jones (Round 1, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
PGA National poses as one of the most formidable challenges on the Tour, rivaling even the Majors. Last year was the first time in the past five editions that the scoring average was below par.
Last year, the Champions Course at PGA National unveiled a new layout, now playing as a par 71 spanning 7,147 yards. Noteworthy alterations include the transformation of No. 10 into a 530-yard par 5. Additionally, fairway lines were widened in May of the preceding year, returning to the grassing lines from 2012-13, with an additional acre of fairway grass added since the previous year.
The course’s principal defense lies in its abundant water hazards, affecting nearly every hole (15 out of 18). Despite its relatively short layout, these water features can compel layups on certain holes. Moreover, the course is highly susceptible to winds, which can significantly impact approach shots.
The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this week and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes were played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.
The four Par 3’s range between 175 yards and 226 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 175 – 200 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 15, 179 yards, Par 3: This is the start of the ‘Bear Trap’ and while it’s not the longest of the Par 3’s on the course, it is the toughest playing 0.114 strokes over par last year. Players will try and hit an iron into a diagonal green that slopes towards the water on the right. A bunker protects the back of the green which has proven to be a challenge in the past given the limited landing area.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 1 is the shortest listed at 365 yards with the longest being No. 6, playing 479 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 6 (+0.203).
No. 6, 479 yards, Par 4: This is a long par-4 playing 479 yards that is normally a par-5 but is changed for this event. Last year, this was the toughest par-4 on the course playing 0.258 strokes over par. Off the tee, it’s extremely narrow with water to the left and fairway bunkers on the right. From there, players will try and hit a shot into a small green that, you guessed it, is surrounded by more water and bunkers. The green is a three-tiered green which can leave some difficult putts depending on the pin location for the day.
There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 10, No. 14, and No. 18. All of the Par 5s had a scoring average under par last year.
No. 18, 556 yards, Par 5: It’s a double dogleg par 5 that first goes left and then right. Off the tee, players will have water and bunkers along both sides. From there, it gets a little more difficult as they have to weigh the risk vs reward for their second shot. The green is nestled between numerous bunkers and water which can come into play if they flair one out left.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15-17 (Bear Trap)
Key Statistics:
The Mexico Open takes place at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course). Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
PGA National Resort (The Champion Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.87
280.35
Driving Accuracy
62%
65%
GIR Percentage
66%
70%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
30.83
Scrambling Percentage
58%
57%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.41
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course).
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Over the past six editions of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, five of the winners have ranked 12th or better in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Pendrith
Luke Clanton
Taylor Moore
Daniel Berger
Alejandro Tosti
Patrick Rodgers
Davis Thompson
Rico Hoey
Bud Cauley
Jesper Svensson
Strokes Gained: Approach
Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past six editions of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, five of the winners have ranked 8th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Antoine Rozner
Nicolai Hojgaard
J.J. Spaun
Lucas Glover
Kurt Kitayama
Francesco Molinari
Sepp Straka
Matt Kuchar
Doug Ghim
McClure (Mac) Meissner
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The green complexes at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) are TifEagle bermudagrass. Over the past three editions of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, every winner has ranked 15th or better in Strokes Gained: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Matt Kuchar
Braden Thornberry
Beau Hossler
Taylor Montgomery
Mackenzie Hughes
Davis Riley
Russell Henley
Max Greyserman
Frankie Capan III
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Five of the eleven Par 4’s at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Alejandro Tosti
Joe Highsmith
Daniel Berger
Alex Smalley
Russell Henley
Samuel Stevens
Jordan Spieth
Michael Kim
Eric Cole
Luke Clanton
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards
Two of the three Par 5’s at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) range between 500-550 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Moore
Taylor Pendrith
Lee Hodges
Kurt Kitayama
Ryan Fox
Jackson Suber
Jake Knapp
Charley Hoffman
Jhonattan Vegas
Matthias Schmid
Bogey Avoidance
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Bud Cauley
Samuel Stevens
Michael Kim
Brian Harman
Nicolai Hojgaard
Seamus Power
Alex Smalley
Lucas Glover
McClure (Mac) Meissner
Kurt Kitayama
Scrambling Gained
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Brian Campbell
Alex Smalley
Luke Donald
Will Chandler
Bud Cauley
Thorbjorn Olesen
Paul Peterson
Michael Kim
McClure (Mac) Meissner
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 175-200 yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Antoine Rozner
Nicolai Hojgaard
Sepp Straka
Henrik Norlander
Joel Dahmen
Gary Woodland
Max McGreevy
Rafael Campos
Andrew Putnam
Kurt Kitayama
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) has been a slight predictor of future performance in this tournament.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at PGA National Resort (The Champion Course)):
Shane Lowry
Sepp Straka
Chris Kirk
Sam Ryder
Russell Henley
Sungjae Im
Byeong Hun An
Cheng Tsung (C. T.) Pan
Daniel Berger
Jhonattan Vegas
The Field:
This year’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches will feature a total of 144 competitors. Among them are ten of the top fourty players in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons.
Leading 10 players (not otherwise exempt) on DP World Tour
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Winners of the Arnold Palmer, Memorial, Genesis (Last 3 Years )
Leading Points Winner from DP World Tour
Players 2-30 on the Prior Season Korn Ferry Tour Points List
Top 5 Finishers and Ties from PGA TOUR Q-School
Top 10 and Ties from the Previous Event.
300 PGA TOUR Career Cuts Made
PGA TOUR University #1 – Prior Season
PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year.
Designated Sponsor Exemptions
Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt.
Sponsor Exemptions: DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted.
Career Money Exemption.
Major Medical Extension.
Top Finishers from Korn Ferry Tour Medical.
Open Qualifying.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Austin Eckroat (2024), Chris Kirk (2023), Sepp Straka (2022), Sungjae Im (2020), Keith Mitchell (2019), Rickie Fowler (2017), Russell Henley (2014), Camilo Villegas (2010), Luke Donald (2006), Matt Kuchar (2002)
Debutants in the Field:
Antoine Rozner, Ben Polland, Braden Thornberry, Brian Campbell, Cristobal Del Solar, Danny Walker, Frankie Capan III, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Suber, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, John Pak, Jordan Spieth, Kaito Onishi, Karl Vilips, Kevin Velo, Luke Clanton, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Michael Thorbjornsen, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Paul Waring, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Rikuya Hoshino, Steven Fisk, Taylor Dickson, Thomas Rosenmueller, Thriston Lawrence, Tim Widing, Will Chandler, William Mouw
Apologies for the absence of writeups this week — they’ll be back next week!
Outrights
Daniel Berger (+2500) – DraftKings
Alex Smalley (+5500) – BetMGM
Patrick Rodgers (+5500) – FanDuel
Gary Woodland (+6000) – BetMGM
Jhonattan Vegas (+6600) – BetMGM
Bud Cauley (+7500) – FanDuel
Ryan Gerard (+8000) – FanDuel
Top 20 (Inc. Ties)
Shane Lowry (+100) – DraftKings
Taylor Moore (+210) – DraftKings
Top 40 (Inc. Ties)
Kevin Roy (+120) – BetMGM
Ryo Hisatsune (+160) – BetMGM
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games.
My free play today takes us to Easton, PA for some Patriot League Action featuring the Lafayette Leopards (11-18 Overall, 6-10 Patriot) hosting the Army Black Knights (16-12 Overall, 10-6 Patriot). The line checks in with Lafayette as a slight favorite at -3.5 and the over/under sits at 138.
Army is led by Senior guard Jalen Rucker with 17.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 3.2 apg. Rucker now sits sixth all-time on Army’s scoring list. With one more win in Patriot League play, the Black Knights will officially break the record for most wins in league play in program history.
The Lafayette Leopards are led Senior center Justin Vander Baan who has blocked 68 shots this season, good for seventh in the country and first in the Patriot League. His 2.8 blocks per game average ranks third in the NCAA. As a program, Lafayette is first in the conference in blocks per game (3.4). Scoring is led by Freshman Guard Alex Chaikin at 12.4 ppg.
Here’s the keys to tonight:
While neither of these teams has showcased any signature wins Army has been the better team in the Patriot League up to this point. The Black Knights main strength has been taking care of the rock. Lafayette doesn’t force many turnovers and they don’t apply a heavy pressure on the defensive side of the ball. With their interior defense led by Vander Baan they are at 89th in defensive 2 point field goal percentage allowed at 48.7%. Army’s best offensive strength is getting inside and I think Lafayette will slow that down tonight and make Army shoot from distance where they only hit at 32.5%. When the Leopards have the ball they typically will fire a higher percentage of shots from 3-point range where they hit at 33.6%. Both teams are well below average at shooting free throws and neither team gets to the line at a good clip.
In their first match-up in January the Leopards shot 54.2% overall and 47.2% from deep. Army was no slouch either checking in at 48.2% and 38.5% from distance. Jalen Rucker accounted for 29 points and I expect Lafayette to try and take him out of the game and force someone else to score on them which should take longer for the Black knights to adjust to and create longer possessions especially early in the game. Lafayette also had an almost 7 minute scoreless streak in the second half where they went 0 for 6 from the field with 4 turnovers.
I don’t see either team repeating the shooting from the first match-up especially from distance, and the pace will only get pushed if Army gets behind by double digits in the second half. I think we’re in for a game of long slow possessions with lots of long shots being jacked up at the end of the shot clock. I have this at 69-64 Lafayette so I am putting a wager on the under in Easton, PA tonight.
