NFL Wildcard Week Sunday Fun-day plays – Sports Betting – Commanders vs Buccaneers
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Commanders vs Buccaneers -3 O/U 50.5
This should be a fun high flying game between two teams that many did not expect in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield has been poised this season leading his offense to rank in the top four in scoring at 29.5 points per game. Certainly a great feat, but we also must credit rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels who brought his offense ranking 5th at 28.5 points per game. Both of these teams are great at rushing the ball with Tampa ranking 3rd in yards per rush at 5.3 and Washington ranking 4th at 5.0. Tampa Bay gets the nod for passing as they rank 3rd in passing yards per game at 250 while Washington is 17th at 215. On defense, the Commanders are great at stopping the pass ranking 3rd while Tampa Bay ranks a bad 29th. Against the run, Tampa is the much better team with Vita Vea clocking up the middle ranking 9th in opponent yards per rush at 4.3 while Washington ranks 28th allowing 4.8. Both defenses have their issues. One thing that Todd Bowles likes to do is blitz. Jayden Daniels ranks 6th against pressure rate on PFF.com. The path to victory for the Commanders is to get Jayden Daniels passing the ball and allowing him to use his legs. The path to victory for Tampa is to run the ball and keep the Commanders honest. I really think numbers wise, that these two teams are very closely matched. Maybe you can give an edge to Baker Mayfield for not being a rookie quarterback, but that’s about it. I will give a slight coaching advantage to Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as they are the better situational coaches over Todd Bowles and Liam Coen. This game should be pick-em on a neutral field and I am not giving the Buccaneers three points for home field advantage.
Commanders +3 – 1.5 stars
Teaser: Bills to -2.5 with the Rams to +8.5 – 3 stars – I expect the bills to take care of business as they had a nice week off last week. I also expect the Rams to show up even with the distractions. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the gang have been there before.
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College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting – Villanova vs St John’s
Villanova vs St John’s -6.5 O/U 145.5
This should be a good matchup in the big easy. The Johnny’s have had a solid start to the season at 13-3. They play fast yet are a solid rebounding team ranking 14th in offensive rebounding. They are poor at shooting the three, but they only take 29.7% of their shots behind the arc. Defense has been big for Rick Pitino’s Red Storm as they rank 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Since the Maryland loss, Nova has been on a tear winning 8 of their last nine games. None more significant than their big win at home against UCONN. I must say that Nova has been tearing through their opponents with an amazing effective FG% ranking 9th in the land at 58.2%. The Cats rank 4th in three point percentage at 41.4%. Is that sustainable? I am not so sure. Nova relies on the three, and when they are away from home, their effective FG% drops down to 54.2%. Factor in that their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 321st and you have your answer. I honestly do not think that Villanova can shoot on the road against a good defense. Further more, Nova’s win against UCONN was without the Huskie’s best player in Liam McNeeley. This is a huge let down spot for the Cats. Lay the points with the Johnny’s!
St John’s -6.5 – 2.5 stars
Bonus Play – Florida/Arkansas over 156.5 – 2.5 stars – Both teams play extremely fast. Arkansas needs this game like blood and I expect a big shootout today.
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College Basketball Friday Freebie – Sports Betting – UCLA vs Maryland
You can bet these lines right here at MyBookie! https://www.theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie USE PROMO CODE Basketball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Clic k here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires december 31st 2025 Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel: https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel: https://t.me/KievONeil To get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business! Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records! 56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season! 2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U 2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U 2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U 63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI 55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI 56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U 55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI 63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS! 54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI 38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI 62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
UCLA vs Maryland -5 O/U 138
This should be the best game on tonight in CBB land. The Terrapins are hosting the Bruins and both teams are coming off two losses in a row. One thing that you have to appreciate about the terps here is that they really know how to score. This team ranks 56.1% effective FG which ranks 28th in the nation. Their defense has been swarming ranking 22nd in the nation in adjusted efficiency. The Bruins on the other hand have a heck of a defense ranking 5th in efficiency, but this team tends to flutter when shooting the ball only ranking 119th in effective FG percent at 52.3%. My biggest problem with the bruins is that they take a lot of mid rang shots ranking 35th in the nation. This isn’t a good strategy on the road where Maryland will be shooting threes and finishing at the rim. The Terps rank 2nd in adjusted three point percentage while the Bruins do not defense it will ranking 75th in opponent adjusted three point percentage.
Maryland is a great home team ranking 4th in home road splits as you see here from @Haslamatrics. UCLA ranks 327th away form home. Take the Terps. Lay the points.
Maryland -5 – 2.5 stars
College Football Semi Finals – Sports Betting
Thursday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs Penn State +1.5 O/U 44.5
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Notre Dame:
- RB Jeremiyah Love Injured last game and questionable.
- DT Team Captain Rylie Mills out for the season.
- TE Cooper Flanagan is out with a foot injury.
Penn State:
- DE Abdul Carter left last game with an arm injury and is questionable. 4th in total tackles.
- OL Anthony Donko out since November with injury
- DT Alonzo Ford has been out since late November with injury.
Post-season Coach ATS:
- Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 3-0
- Penn State: James Franklin, 8-5
Net YPP: Penn State +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Notre Dame is the better rushing team ranking 2nd in rush EPA to 18th for Penn State while Penn State gets the nod on the passing ranking 8th in pass EPA to Notre Dame at 47th. Both schedules are not too far from each other. Notre Dame has the slightly better defense ranking 2nd in EPA to Penn State at 17th.
Verdict: This should be a tight game. I have Notre Dame by two points or so, but It wouldn’t shock me if the Nittany Lions get them. I do give a slight edge to some of the intangibles as I think that Notre Dame’s quarterback Riley Leonard might be a bit more big game ready than Drew Allar. I also think the Irish get the coaching edge as Big game James could always make a showing. I am somewhat concerned for the two day rest advantage for Penn State and the health of Jeremiyah Love. I want to make sure he is healthy before I decide to make a play.
Play: Lean Notre Dame -1.5
Friday, Jan. 10
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Ohio State vs Texas +6 O/U 53.5
Time: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home. It’s in Texas so give them -1 in Arlington.
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio State:
- C Seth McLaughlin is out
- OT Josh Simmons is out.
Texas:
- OL Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle sprain and missed last game.
- WR Isaiah Bond missed last game and is questionable.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 3-5
- Ohio State: Ryan Day, 4-4
Net YPP: Ohio State +.9
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Ohio State has the better offense ranking number 2 in offensive EPA to 37th for Texas. They also have the better defense ranking 1st in defensive EPA to Texas at number 3.
Verdict: There isn’t much more to say than the fact that Ohio State is better than Texas in pretty much every key area. I will say that Texas could slow this game down to try and give them an advantage, but how long will that last. Texas has been the more inconsistent team in general as they almost blew their game against ASU among their two losses to Georgia. Texas also doesn’t have many big wins. Ohio State is red hot. I think they win this game and I also will take the under as a safety net.
Play: Ohio State -6 and under 53.5
Podcast 667 – 3 – 25 – NFL Playoffs Wildcard Week – CBB Jan 10th-12th – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 from @ShotQualityBets is back to break down a huge weekend of college basketball! First, Justin comes on and the guys talk about the college basketball landscape. Then Justin and Kiev talk about some buy low/sell high teams for the season. Then, we get into some of the best betting spots for this weekend in college basketball with some Fre Plays. Next, the guys give out a few beer bet long shots that have a chance to hit. After that, Kiev talks NFL Wildcard weekend with some more plays. Finally we get into NFL sharp money movement and recap our plays! Our Refuse to lose teaser finishes the NFL season at 12-7 while our Tick Tock Props finish at 24-15! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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NBA: Hornets/Lakers
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