We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, sleepers and busts! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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You can bet these lines right here at MyBookie! https://www.theoddsbreakers.com/mybookieUSE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires december 31st 2024Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel: https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicksFollow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel: https://t.me/KievONeilTo get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records! 56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Titans vs Texans -8 O/U 40.5
Sometimes as a sports bettor, you just have to hold your nose. The Titans are the worst ATS team in the NFL at 1-9 against the closing number. They have burned our money at times when they should have won some of their games out-right. In saying that, we are betting on them again. I think that this team isn’t quite as bad as some folks think, while the Texans are not quite as good as all of the hype. On offense, the Titans are a brutal 28th in EPA, but they are finally more healthy as QB Will Levis and RB Tony Pollard both have missed time. The Texans are not exactly crushing it themselves ranking a below average 19th in EPA. On defense believe it or not, the Titans are number one in opponent passing yards per game allowing only 164. They also rank 6th in rushing yards per attempt allowing 4.1 while the Texans rank 20th in that category allowing 4.5. As long as the Titans do not turn the ball over, this spread can certainly be covered. The low total of 40.5 tells you the dog is in play. Hold your nose and take the Titans.
Titans +8 – 2 stars
Teaser: Dolphins to -1 with the Raiders to +11.5 – 2.5 stars – The Raiders should keep it closer at home while Miami should win the game.
Dec 26, 2019; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Eastern Michigan Eagles defensive back Brody Hoying (24) celebrates with teammates after getting a fumble recovery during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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You can bet these lines right here at MyBookie! https://www.theoddsbreakers.com/mybookieUSE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires december 31st 2024Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel: https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicksFollow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel: https://t.me/KievONeilTo get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records! 56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Arizona vs TCU -11.5 O/U 59.5
This is going to be a good game to bet on this weekend. Arizona is coming off of a rare win against Houston. If they win out, they could “still” make a bowl game. Should we assume that they are excited to travel to El Paso or Boise Idaho to play a team like South Alabama? Probably not. TCU on the other hand just keeps getting better. That is because they have a great coach in Sonny Dykes. The Frogs have won three of their last four games. Looking at the metrics, TCU as a nice 1.63 net yards per play advantage over the Cats. They have cleaned up some of those early season turnovers, and they rank 19th in offensive success rate and 17th in offensive EPA. The Cats were supposed to have a good offense with Fifita and T-Mac, but that really didn’t come into fruition as this team only ranks 107th in offensive success rate and 98th in offensive EPA. The Big problem with the Cats is that throwing the ball is pretty much everything for them. TCU’s defense has not graded out well this season, but they at least rank 39th in opponent passing success rate and 52nd in defensive pass EPA. This is a great spot for TCU as they are coming off of a bye week. Arizona has a huge sandwich spot as they just beat Houston at home, and they have a look ahead to Arizona State where their rival is in position to possibly win the big 12. Take the Frogs this game to cover big.
TCU -11.5 – 3 stars
Indiana vs Ohio State -13 O/U 52
This is really the game that everyone has been waiting for. College football analysts have been kicking and screaming about how much that they think Indiana doesn’t deserve to be ahead of 5 or 6 SEC teams. I personally have Indiana power rated around 11th or 12th best in the country. I also have Ohio State as the top dog in the country and I line this game at Ohio State -13.5. Seems like the market pretty much agrees with me. So does that make me right? I am not so sure. When I power rate teams, I use metrics, talent and some eye test. The Talent makes sense for this spread, but I am not so sure about the other two. Indiana has started off strong in pretty much all of their games, but in a few second halves, they seemed to lose themselves allowing teams like Michigan and Washington to slowly creep back into contention. Ohio State on the other hand has also been guilty of this, where they almost flat out lost to Nebraska after a bye week, and they choked away a great opportunity in Oregon. Looking at the Metrics, one could make an argument that Ohio State hasn’t played anyone with a pulse other than Oregon and Penn State. The Buckeye’s schedule ranks 61st in Sagarin while Indiana’s ranks 77th. Not a huge difference. Indiana has played an easy schedule, but they are still blowing out most of the teams that they face. Net yards per play with Ohio State and Indiana are almost equal with Ohio State at 2.85 and Indiana at 2.72. We must not forget that Indiana quarterback Curtis Roark also missed a game or two. Indiana is 5th in offensive EPA while Ohio State is 2nd, while Ohio State is 1st in defensive EPA and Indiana is 8th. Indiana’s weakness is their offensive line yards only ranking 63rd, but Ohio State’s defensive line yards rank 64th. Really a push in that situation. I expect Ohio State to win, and that talent may be able to find them some margin, but the Buckeye’s tend to start games slow. Indiana is coming off of a bye week and I expect them to score early. Take Indiana 1st quarter and 1st half.
Nov 27, 2021; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham (3) runs the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second quarter at Cardinal Stadium. Kentucky won 52-21. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
USC vs UCLA +4.5 O/U 52
It’s still feels weird to call this a Big 10 matchup, but here we are and these two rivals have not missed a beat. Over the past ten matchups, these teams are pretty close with USC 6-4 straight up, yet 5-5 ATS. The Bruins have started out the season as a pretty abysmal team, yet over the past few weeks, they have really turned it on beating teams like Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa. Dare I say that this team could still make a bowl game. The Trojans on the other hand have been pretty ying and yang dropping games that they were leading in against Maryland and Penn State while beating Wisconsin, Nebraska and a banged up Rutgers team at home. They switched quarterbacks to mid-season from Miller Moss to Jayden Maiava, which worked out for the Nebraksa game, yet still hasn’t proven enough yet to many critics. I am not going to bore you with a bunch of stats, as these two teams are different from when they started the season. What I will say is that there are three ways to look at this handicap. What have you done, what have you done for me lately, and how is your home road splits? Well this spread is warranted if you ask what UCLA and USC have done, but since week 5, UCLA has been a much better team. The Big problem with the Trojans is that they are a shell of themselves on the road. USC is a nice 6.9 yards per play at home, but a mediocre 5.8 yards per play on the road. As a matter of fact, this team hasn’t won a road game all year! What I like about UCLA is that these kids are still fighting. They didn’t have goals in making the playoffs like the Trojans, and instead they just want to beat their rivals and help out their coach DeShaun Foster. I think UCLA keeps this game close and they might actually win outright.
