The Dolphins out-gained the Texans 224 to 181 yet lost 20-12. A 4-1 turnover ratio fried the fish.
The Jaguars out-gained the Jets 421 to 400 yet lost 32-25. A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible Jags defense got them.
The Titans out-gained the Bengals 374 to 370 yet lost 37-27. A massive 6-4 turnover ratio chopped down the Titans.
The Colts out-gained the Broncos 310 to 193 yet won 31-13. A 5-3 turnover ratio and just boneheaded play killed the Colts.
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Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia +5 O/U 58.5
Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Memphis’s Motivation: High – This team gets to beat a bigger conference!
West Virginia’s Motivation: Medium Low – The Mountaineers fired coach Neal Brown and I can’t imagine there is much motivation here.
Home: None
Key Guy’s missing:
West Virginia –
Memphis –
Net YPP: Memphis +1.03
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Memphis has the much better numbers, but West Virginia’s strength of schedule was much higher this year. West Virginia cannot guard the pass ranking 127th in opponent pass EPA while Memphis is 16th is pass attempts.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Verdict: The Mountaineers also have a bunch of guys potentially opting out as coach Neal Brown has been fired. This could be a blowout.
Play: Lean Memphis
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison -7 O/U 52
Location: FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
Time: 5:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium High – Tyson Helton is a nice 3-1 ATS in bowl games, but they lost their quarterback to transfer. Lots of transfers for WKU in this portal.
James Madison’s Motivation: Medium High – JMU will want to win, but they had also lost their quarterback Alonza Barnett III to injury.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Western Kentucky:
Injures:
Western Kentucky Transfer Portal
James Madison:
Net YPP: James Madison +1.23
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Caden Veltkamp will play for Western Kentucky, but does that matter? James Madison will run the ball ranking 30th in rushing success rate to Western Kentucky ranking 118th on defense.
College Bowl ATS:
Verdict: QB or not, James Madison has much less transfers and I expect them to run all over Western Kentucky.
Play: James Madison -7
Art of Sport LA Bowl: Cal vs. UNLV -1 O/U 48
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: Medium – Cal will want to win this to save embarrassment from lost to UNLV, but they may be without a quarterback.
UNLV’s Motivation: Medium Low – Barry Odem is gone to Purdue and this team had playoff hopes all the way to the Mountain West Championship game, yet nobody has opted out as of yet…
Home: I think Cal may have a 1.5 point advantage even though San Francisco is farther away. Home State and good to make a bowl.
Key Guy’s missing:
Cal:
UNLV:
Net YPP: UNLV +.67
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Cal can just not run the ball well ranking 114th in yards per rush. They will have to rely on the back up quarterback Chandler Rogers which is a big issue.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Verdict: If Hajj Malik Williams plays this game, UNLV should beat Cal. I think the guys audition for new coach Dan Mullen.
Play: UNLV PK
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston +6 O/U 48.5
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time: 7 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN2
Georgia Southern’s Motivation: Low – Clay Helton is only 1-6 ATS in bowl games. I am very concerned that they care about beating a lessor team.
Sam Houston’s Motivation: Medium High – Sam Houston had a very good second season in FBS, yet many in transfer portal.
Home: Slight for Sam Houston at .5 as they are about 350 miles away from New Orleans
Key Guys Missing?
Georgia Southern:
Sam Houston:
Net YPP: Sam Houston +1.36
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Georgia Southern’s strength of schedule was much more difficult ranking 77th to 119th for Sam Houston. In sayin that, I could see Sam Houston being able to run the ball some here. The problem is that Sam Houston can’t play catchup well at all, so if they get behind by 7 or more, they could be toast.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Verdict: Lean Sam Houston
References:
Byes: None
Key Injuries:
RB Trey Benson with an ankle injury.
RB Nick Chubb broke his foot and should be out for the season.
QB Jameis Winston may have lost his Job.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin hurt his quad and didn’t return.
RB David Montgomery with a knee is out for the season.
WR Alec Pierce had a concussion.
QB Patrick Mahomes had a high ankle injury.
WR Jalen Waddle had a knee injury.
RB Alvin Kamara left with a groin injury.
QB Geno Smith left with a knee injury.
WR AJ Brown hurt his ankle some against the Steelers.
TE Zach Ertz went out with a concussion.
Waiver Wire:
QB Spencer Rattler for the Saints may be the guy this week.
QB Carson Wentz for the Chiefs could be a streamer.
RB Craig Reynolds is now relevant for the Lions.
RB Kendre Miller for the Saints may get the start
TE Brenden Strange for the Engram injury.
QB Aaron Rogers could make a few passes.
TE Ben Sinnott for the Commanders if Ertz can’t go.
QB Sam Howell for the Geno injury if you hate yourself.
WR Malik Washington for the Waddell injury is interesting.
RB DeeJay Dallas for the Cardinals is relevant now with Benson hurting.
RB Jerome Ford for Cleveland is now the bell cow.
RB Pierre Strong for the Browns is the handcuff.
RB Trey Sermon if Taylor is in the doghouse for dropping the ball before the endzone.
Sleepers:
RB Jerome Ford against Cincinnati’s piss poor defense.
RB Tajae Spears against the Colts is nice this week.
QB Baker Mayfield against the Cowboys slaps.
RB Craig Reynolds against the Bears makes sense.
Min defense against the Seahawks is interesting.
QB Caleb Williams against Detroit’s defense may be an option.
WR DJ Moore against the Lions is back on.
WR Jameson Williams against the Bears is easy.
TE Jake Ferguson against Tampa Bay is interesting.
WR Romeo Doubs against the Saints is magical.
QB Tua Tagovailoa against the 49ers could be big.
Busts:
WR D’Andre Hopkins with Wentz at quarterback is rough.
TE Travis Kelce with Wentz at QB is bad.
QB Russell Wilson against the Ravens.
RB Najee Harris against the Ravens is bad.
RB Kenneth Walker against the Vikings is rough.
QB CJ Stroud against the Chiefs isn’t good.
RB Joe Mixon against the Chiefs is wrong.
WR Terry McLaurin against the Eagles is suspect.
RB Brian Robinson against the Eagles is also rough.
QB Anthony Richardson against the Titans doesn’t play.
Nasty Sleeper:
RB Sincere McCormick vs the Jaguars is huge
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We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we break down some bowl games from December 17th – 19th with some Free Plays. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, sleepers and busts! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Battle for Pennsylvania is on! I do not quite understand this line. Is it true that the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league? Yes, but I also didn’t see them beating anyone special. Ok, they beat the Ravens a few weeks back, but that victory was more on the field goal kicker Justin Tucker who couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat. I do not see any wins against the Lions, or the Vikings, or the Packers. In offense, I give the nod to the Eagles as they rank 6th in offensive EPA to the Steelers at 15, but on defense, the Steelers are 5th in EPA to the Eagles at 7th. From a health perspective, both teams are looking pretty good with just a few injuries, but I think that the Brandon Graham injury for the Eagles might come back and bite them today. This guy has been a leader of this defense for years. The weather outside will be cold at 40 degrees with a slight chance of rain. I could see Najee Harris having a big day on the ground. I think the steel curtain comes out on defense as well. I think the Eagles win the game but by three or less points.
Steelers +5.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Vikings to -.5 with the Cowboys to +8.5 – 2.5 stars – The Bears are awful and I could see an easy win for the Vikings. The Cowboys probably should be favored against the Panthers.
