NFL Conference Championship Week
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Commanders vs Eagles -6 O/U 47.5
This is a huge divisional game to see who goes to the super bowl. The weather will be a brisk 39 degrees with 9 mph winds. This season’s head to head record is 1-1 between these two great teams. The Commanders are 4th in offensive EPA. They are 4th in drop-back EPA and 4th in Rush EPA. The Eagles are 6th in offensive EPA. They are 8th in drop-back EPA and 1st in Rush EPA. The Commanders are 22nd in defensive EPA. They are 22nd in opponent pass EPA and 27th in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles are 3rd in defensive EPA. They are 3rd in opponent drop-back EPA and 2nd in opponent rush EPA. The great thing for the Eagles is that this team has a massive rushing advantage ranking 1st in rushing to the Commanders defense that ranks 27th in opponent rushing. I will however say that the Commanders have improved some as we saw in some key areas in their last two games. These teams recently played on December 22nd where the Commanders won the game 36-33 and out-gained the Eagles at 5.8 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play even though they lost the time of possession battle 36 to 24 minutes and the turnover ratio of 5-2. Back on Nov 14th, the Eagles beat the Commies by where they outgained them 6.2 yards per play to 4.2. I think that for this game, the Nakobe Dean injury factor to the Eagles is massive here, and especially when trying to stop an agile running quarterback like Jayden Daniels. This spread should be 4.
Props: The Commanders ranked number 1 against running backs receiving the ball allowing only 22.8 rec yards per game, however, number 29th in allowing rushing yards per game averaging at 113 yards. Maybe a Saquon Prop for rushing or under for Receiving. Both the Commanders and the Eagles are great against tight ends ranking 1st for Philly and 5th for Washington in opponent tight end receiving yards. Tight End under for Washington is in play. The Eagles are the best defending against Wide Receivers only allowing 126.1 yards per game. Maybe some Commanders Rec under props is warranted. Maybe McLauren gets blanked by Darius Slay. We may want to look at Eckler receiving as well being that he torched the Eagles for 89 yards in their last matchup.
Plays: Commanders +6.5 or better – 1.5 stars – Prop – Austin Eckler over 26.5 rec yards – .5 stars
Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yards -110 – 1 star (FD)
Bills vs Chiefs -2 O/U 47.5
Well, the big controversial game is here. The Temperature will be freezing with low wind. The NFL is so worried about it that they have pieces of 4 different officiating crews to ref the game, yet we really do not know how much that will matter. These two teams played back on November 18th where the Bill won at home 30 to 21 partially thanks to a huge 4th down run by Josh Allen. Let’s look at the numbers. The Bills are number 2 in offensive EPA. They are number 2 in drop-back EPA and number 3 in rush EPA. The Chiefs are number 9 in offensive EPA. They are number number 10 in drop-back EPA and 13 in Rush EPA. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are number 11 in defensive EPA. They are number 20 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 6 in opponent rush EPA. The Chiefs are number 15 in defensive EPA. They are number 16 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 11 in opponent rush EPA. Looking at these numbers, it is pretty much a push on defense. On offense, the Bills are the much better team. The problem is that Patrick Mahomes has proven more clutch in playoff situations while the refs have always sealed the deal to help out the Chiefs in big situations. Sharp Football analysis analyzed the last four years, the Chiefs had significantly less penalties go against them. More info on this topic here. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/chiefs-referee-playoffs-penalties-2024-divisional-round/ I have this game at Pickem because of this.
Props: From a prop perspective, The Bills are the worst team giving up receiving yards to running backs at 44.1 per game, while the Chiefs are the fourth best at 23.6. Maybe some Pacheco/Hunt/Perine receiving overs might work but the problem is knowing which one will be in the game plan. Maybe some James Cook receiving unders could be warranted here, but the number is pretty low. The Chiefs rank 3rd in allowing rush yards to opponents at 70.4 per game, but that didn’t stop the bills from running all over the Ravens. If juiced than go bills unders. The Chiefs rank 24th in giving up rushing yards to the quarterback at 25.5. This sways me from taking Josh Allen under although his rushing prop is quite juiced. I think the Chiefs should be ready for that. Both teams are average or better against Wide Receivers, but the Chiefs are worst against Tight ends giving up 70.1 receiving yards per game. Looking at a Dalton Kinkaid prop over. Keep an eye on Bills cornerback Christian Benford as he was concussed and could miss this game. If he is out, then I will look at some WR props for the Chiefs.
Lean Bills +2
Dalton Kinkaid over 32.5 rec yards – 1 star
Isaiah Pacheco over 4.5 rec yards – 1 star
Teaser: Commanders to +12 with Bills to +8 – 2.5 stars
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College Basketball Saturday Super-Plays – Sports Betting – Texas A&M vs Texas
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Texas A&M vs Texas PK O/U 141.5
This should be a great game in the SEC with two teams boxing out for position to be in the NCAA tournament. These two teams played each other in College Station on January 4th where A&M blew Texas out by 20 points. What we should mention though is that Longhorn Chendell Weaver injured himself that game and hit threw the team off. Texas certainly hasn’t been great this year, but they are the more desperate team as they need this win to get to the big dance. Looking at the matchup, the Longhorns do have some advantages as they are the much better shooting team ranking 42nd in effective FG% while A&M ranks 276th. The reason that the Aggies are so good this year is due to their rebounding. This team ranks 1st in offensive rebounding, but I have to assume that Texas has learned their lesson being out-rebounded by 10 last game. The Aggies also shot a massive 66% from two last game which most likely will not be repeated. I expect Texas to give a much better effort down low with some of their taller guys. A pack-line defense is what it takes to break A&M. I will take the Longhorns in a revenge spot at home.
Texas PK – 2 stars
Bonus Play: Saint Mary’s -6 – 2 stars – The handicap here is pretty basic. The Gaels are an amazing road team shooting 51.5% effective FG%. The Cougars beat up on the smaller teams. They also lost their best two players early this season to injuries in Isaiah Watts and Cedric Coward. The Gaels play defense and should roll.
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College Basketball Friday Free Play – Milwaukee’s Best
We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 51-51-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.
My free play today takes us to Highland Heights, KY for some Horizon League Action featuring the Northern Kentucky Norse (9-11 Overall, 4-5 Horizon) hosting the Milwaukee Panthers (14-7 Overall, 7-3 Horizon). The line checks in with Milwaukee as a slight favorite at -1.5 and the over/under sits at 142.
The Norse started the season 0-4, and have also dropped their last 4 games. Those eight losses are sandwiched around a 9-3 stretch. Their best win in that stretch was against Purdue Fort Wayne at home in OT on New Years Day. They’ve struggled against the best teams in the Horizon league with 3 of their 4 conference wins coming against the worst teams in the league. The Norse are led by Trey Robinson who is averaging 15.7 PPG. They’ve struggled to find him a supporting cast with only two other Norse averaging in double figures.
Milwaukee is 2-2 away from home in Horizon League play so they can be beaten. They had a nice bounce back on Wednesday night winning at Wright State after dropping a heartbreaker at home vs Robert Morris last weekend. Milwaukee junior Jamicheal Stillwell has played well of late. Stillwell put on a show, scoring 26 points and shooting 62.5% from the floor against Robert Morris on Sunday. Following this match-up, he was honored as the Horizon League Player of the Week for his efforts, which was a program first. Themus Fulks leads Milwaukee with 15.4 PPG and they feature five players who average in double figures.
Here’s the keys to tonight:
Northern Kentucky likes to play slow, and Milwaukee will look to push. In games against top tempo teams thus far the Norse have not played well losing to Akron by 13, Charleston by 15 and Youngstown State by 11. Milwaukee isn’t quite as talented as those first two teams, but they thumped Youngstown State by 15 a few weeks back. Milwaukee should be able to run on the Norse and get some easy looks.
The biggest key metric will be on the glass. Milwaukee is 5th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage and 6th in second chance points conversions. Northern Kentucky is at 288th in giving up offensive rebounds and 353rd in allowing second chance point conversions. On the Flip side Milwaukee is 27th in offensive rebounds allowed percentage.
The Panthers should win this game on the boards and with easy buckets and handily cover the 1.5
Milwaukee -1.5, 2 Units
College Basketball Friday Freebie – Sports Betting – Penn State vs Iowa
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Penn State vs Iowa -3.5 O/U 167.5
This is a fun matchup in the big 10 and the total being at 167.5 really shows that. Penn State has broken their losing streak on Monday beating Rutgers at home 80-72. Nice to get off of the Schneid after four losses. Iowa on the other hand is coming off of three losses in a row. Two of them were out west in LA, and the last one was a terrible showing a home losing to the Gophers om Tuesday. Both of these teams play extremely fast, and that is why you see a high total. Iowa’s biggest issue is rebounding the basketball as they only rank 256th in second change points. Penn State has the advantage there, but on offense, Iowa is the much better shooting team ranking 4th in the nation in effective FG%. Penn State ranks a decent 47th in that category, but on the road, their effective FG% drops from 57.5% at home to 50.1% on the road. Iowa is has a massive home effective FG% at 61.9%. Iowa is in a desperate get up spot right now if they still have post season aspirations. They need this win much more than Penn Sate. I am going to lay it with the Hawkeyes.
Iowa -3.5 – 2 stars
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Podcast 671 – 7 – 25 – NFL Playoffs Conference Week – CBB Jan 24th-25th – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Is the NFL rigged? Joe Gibbs @NFLRefStats1 from @Sharpfootball comes on to discuss the controversy surrounding the NFL! First, Kiev talks some college basketball trends for the 2024/2025 season. Next, Kiev talks some of the biggest and best games to watch or bet on for the weekend with some Free Plays. Then, Joe comes on and the guys get into his history and NFL ref stats. Are refs prone to throw flags at different times? What does the data say about each crew and their dispositions? Home/Away ref stats. Then, we talk about why teams may get some favoritism within the game, and what contributes to it. We discuss if where the NFL is when it comes to integrity. After that, Kiev get’s into his NFL Conference plays, props and leans. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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College Basketball Thursday Free Play – Bet The Broncos
We have a Thursday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 46-50-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.
My free play today takes us to Santa Clara, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the Santa Clara Broncos (13-7 Overall, 5-2 WCC) hosting the Washington State Cougars (15-5 Overall, 5-2 WCC). The line checks in with Santa Clara as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 158.5.
After a rough 3-5 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken ten of its last twelve games, and the Broncos come into this home match-up after a split on the road last week in WCC play losing to Loyola and beating Gonzaga in Pullman. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 11.9 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Adam Alpha Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from distance. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 13.2 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard. Bal however is the key to their offense with his ability to get to the rim.
Washington State comes into the game off a sweep last week as they squeaked by San Diego on the road and hammered Portland at home. The Cougars lost top scorer Cedric Coward for the season in November and have been without Isaiah Watts since Mid-December. It is possible Watts returns tonight. Nate Calmese has picked up the slack in their absence averaging 17.3 PPG on 48.6% shooting. He has been attacking the rim and causing a ton of defensive problems. 6’11” Forward Dane Erikstrup has been the other key piece on both ends of the floor. He can stretch the interior defense with his 3-point shooting ability.
I think the offenses will thrive tonight. Both these teams can create defensive match-up issues. Wazzou is 8th in the country in 2-Point Field Goal percentage and that is something Santa Clara will struggle with. Wazzou will constantly be attacking off the dribble and in the post. The Broncos allow 34 Post points per game and ranks 227th defending the 2 point shot. Santa Clara will run a lot of ball screen action and then try and get to the rim off of that or off the dribble. Wazzou is only in the 26th percentile in defense off the dribble and should have plenty of trouble stopping the Broncos
The books have accounted for this with the 158.5 total and I can’t say they are wrong. I think the difference in this game will come down to Washington State not taking as good of care of the rock as Santa Clara. The go fast and are turning the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. They are also 344th in the country in Non-steal turnover percentage. It’s a big let down spot for Santa Clara following the win at Gonzaga, but Washington State has a big look ahead game next with WCC leading St. Mary’s coming to Pullman.
Gimme the Broncos at home who have the better defense, better free throw percentage and are better at taking care of the basketball.
Santa Clara -4.5, 1.5 Units
