This back and forth series has come down to game seven and it should be quite the show. Kevin Durant faces off one last time against Giannis Antetokounmpo and I’m here for it. Of course I’ll be at a remote cabin in the woods later today, where there’s absolutely no service, so I’m sending out this article early to make sure it gets to you all. Here are my bets– happy weekend!!
Lean, Nets win (-120) and
Durant over 35.5 points (-125), 1.5 units and
Bucks/Nets under 215 (-110), 1.5 units (and watch for opportunities to LIVE BET the under)
As much as I want to be bold and pick a side here today, I don’t think it’s a smart move. No team has a real advantage here, despite the fact that each home team has won every contest. There is no greater motivation than a game seven and there shouldn’t be any lack of aggression or moxie on either side. Two teams built around their stars, albeit one with more stars than the other, in truth these are two franchises that are very evenly constructed. Kyrie’s presence and a healthy James Harden would give Brooklyn the edge at home but that’s not the reality today.
Much unlike the regular season, these two teams have produced a ton of low-scoring affairs. Watch, in this game where I’m being bullish on the under, they’ll defy the odds and the total will soar to the 240s. Eye roll. Still, I feel I have no choice but to take the under in this final showdown. There is no higher tension than a game seven and both defenses have figured out ways to limit the others’ stars. Brooklyn and Milwaukee proved that they actually have some defensive prowess and every single shot will be contested tonight. If one defense has a hiccup, they’ll correct that quickly. If there’s an early quarter where the total climbs because we see a 58-65 point quarter, look to live bet the under on a much higher total. I think that’s the best bet here, actually.
I won’t bet on Giannis’ point props or P/R/A prop since this is in Brooklyn and he’ll feel more pressure than Durant. We know how he fares at the charity stripe and that won’t prove any easier at the Barclays Center. And while Milwaukee has turned to other contributors like Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, it’s clear that Brooklyn’s roster would much rather force feed the ball to Kevin Durant as much as possible. Durant would have beaten his point total in game six, I guarantee it, if he wasn’t pulled in the final 6 minutes of regulation. Just like a star wide-receiver who gets targeted over 10 times a game in the NFL, it’s very likely that Durant will take over 25 shots and that means there’s a great chance he’ll demolish that point prop once again. I expect James Harden to have more of an impact too, but not enough to take away from Durant’s production.
For those bettors out there who feel confident about taking a side tonight, kudos to you. Initially I did too (I leaned the Bucks at first and now I lean the Nets– home court advantage is a thing), but it wouldn’t feel responsible to my readers to give that out. This is truly a very evenly-matched series and game seven should be incredible TV. Hopefully the fishing cabin has cable! Good luck, people!
