Howdy everyone. It’s been a bit since I’ve had a chance to write up a quick article over here at TheOddsBreakers.com, and I wish I could write more, but coaching youth sports and that day job always seem to get in the way.
Since you last read me we’ve had a nice bounce back in college basketball going 68-45 in college hoops since December 15th good for +32.71 Units. If I could have gotten a couple breaks on some high volume Saturdays recently that number would be even better. I can’t complain though as my coin flips have now evened out for the year and our angles have been cashing in.
Today we look to my home state and Milwaukee, Wisconsin where Marquette will host Providence at the Fiserv Forum at 5:00 CT
Marquette currently sits as a 1.5 point favorite with the total at 167.
Marquette comes into this match-up losers in 9 out of their last 10. That one win came at home by a single point to Xavier. They haven’t had an easy schedule during that run however as only their last loss against Depaul came vs a team outside the Top 100 over at Kenpom. They’ve been really struggling on the offensive side of things. Despite playing at the 80th fasted adjusted tempo and holding the 15th shortest average possession length they’ve only cracked 70 points in four of those last ten contests.
The defense has been better than the offense, but still has allowed plenty of teams to go big against them this year. Teams with fast-paced efficient offenses continue to give them troubles. Indiana scored 100, Wisconsin 96, and St. Johns 92. It also seems as though anyone with size and/or ability to get to the rim they just can’t keep away from the basket. Their current 2Pt Average distance allowed is only 5.8 which is good for only 229th in the country which is really bad for a top five overall conference team.
Providence has also struggled since the start of Big East play going 2-5 thus far, but they are coming off a nice win at Home against Creighton. Offensively they thrive off tempo, and while they play fast they also take care of the ball turning it over just 15.3% of the time. They have also been efficient putting it in the bucket scoring less than 80 points only four times thus far on the season.
Defensively Providence has also not been great, but where they’ve struggled most is defending the three point shot where they are allowing opponents to hit at 37.5%.
Providence could again be without streaky guard Jason Edwards who has missed the last two games with Plantar Fasciitis, but they’ve managed to score 82 against Villanova and 93 against Creighton without him, both of whom are slower paced teams with solid defensive ratings in the conference.
I am really struggling to get behind Marquette in this game with where their offense is at. I think there are a couple ways to attack this one. My personal choice is to play Providence on the Team Total over which sits at 83 currently. They’ve only missed this number twice in Big East play once against slowed paced Seton Hall, and once against St. John’s in a defensive oriented foul fest. If Team totals aren’t your thing you could play them +1.5. I however am trusting in the Friars, win or lose to get over 83 which they have done to the tune of 12-5-1 on the season. Playing a speedy Shaka Smart Marquette team should make that a reality.
Providence Team Total Over 83 – 2 Units
