Welcome back to all our loyal TheOddsbreakers.com readers. Hope everyone was able to cash in our free plays last week as we hit on every single one of them.
Last week was my top College basketball week ever from a units perspective. We went 33-16 +26.93 Units from Sunday through Saturday and we continue to crush College Basketball with a high volume of plays. 100-62-1 is the record since Mid-December showing +58.19 Units of profit. All my plays are typically between 1-3 Units. Hope you’ve been tailing along.
Today we look to San Jose, CA where San Jose St. will host Boise St. at Provident Credit Union Event Center at 9:00 CT. The Line is currently at Boise St. -10.5 with a total landing at 140.
San Jose St. enters the game at 6-14 Overall and 1-8 in Mountain West play with their only conference win coming against winless conference doormat Air Force. This team has been really struggling recently especially on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve also been ravaged by injuries with four key contributors in the rotation missing time in January. Offensively they are one of the slowest and most methodical teams in the country playing at 337th in adjusted tempo and 345th in average possession length in the country. For going as slow as they do they also have a very high Non-Steal turnover rate at 8.1%. As mentioned defensively they give up way too many open looks with opponents connecting on 58.1% of 2-point attempts (344th) and 36.8% of 3-point attempts (320th). Average 2-point attempt distance is only 4.7 Feet which is 3rd worst in all of college basketball.
Boise St. sits at 12-8 overall and is 4-5 in Mountain West play. All five of their conference losses are to teams ahead of them in the Mountain West Standings. The Broncos have been about as average as they come, but have played better over the last two weeks going 3-1 with the only loss an OT set back on the road at UNLV. Boise St.’s strengths on offense has been in getting to the foul line where they rank 39th in the country and then are hitting 76.5% of their attempts once at the stripe. They play a little faster than San Jose St. at 235th in adjusted tempo and 211th in the country at average possession length. Defensively they are a middle of the road team in defensive effective FG%.
So where does the handicap land tonight? It’s really hard to ignore the injuries San Jose St. has had and while they are getting healthier the continuity just isn’t there. Colby Garland returned last time out and scored 10 points and had 7 assists. Jermaine Washington has been back for the last two games and is averaging 14 points per contest in his return. Still out for certain tonight is Ben Rosebourough who is averaging 12 points per game. Questionable to return tonight is Yaphet Moundi who averages 12.5 PPG. Even if they get Moundi back tonight this will be the best defense they’ve played since Grand Canyon on January 10th and they only managed 62 at Wyoming last time out even with Garland in the lineup.
Also stacked against the Spartans is the style on defense for Boise St. They do a really good job of limiting assists ranking 30th in the country at assists to field goal ratio allowed. San Jose St. relies heavily on getting guys open via the pass with a 58.9 ratio of Assists to Field Goals. Boise will make them create off the dribble and even with Garland back that does not bode well for the Spartans. The final nail in the coffin for me in fading San Jose St. scoring is Boise just doesn’t allow second chance points. They are 4th in the country in offensive rebound percentage allowed. Boise is fine playing slow and they do it much better than San Jose St. They’ll dominate the half court tonight.
San Jose St. Team Total Under 65 -115, 1.5 Units
