Saturday, Dec. 13
Bucked Up LA Bowl – Boise State vs. Washington -10 O/U 51.5
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network: ABC
Boise State’s Motivation: High – They get to play a Big 10 school in the same recruiting grounds.
Washington’s Motivation: Medium – They know how good Boise is and that they were a playoff team in 2024.
Home: None
Boise State Potential Opt-Outs
- S Ty Benefield
- LT Kage Casey (declared for NFL draft)
Boise State Injuries
- CB A’Marion McCoy (missed final two games)
- DT Dion Washington (missed finale)
- WR Ben Ford (hasn’t played since Week 7)
Washington Potential Opt-Outs
- RB Jonah Coleman
- WR Denzel Boston
- CB Tacario Davis
Washington Injuries
- S Makell Esteen (missed finale)
- OLB Isaiah Ward (last played in Week 8)
- CB Tacario Davis (missed final two games)
- C Landen Hatchett (hasn’t played since Week 11 due to a cast on snapping hand)
Net Yards Per Play: Washington +1.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: When looking here, two things look like they stick out. Washington has the better net yards per play ranking 15th in the nation, while having the better strength of schedule ranking 44th t Boise’s 82nd. I find it interesting though that Boise has a strong pass defense ranking 3rd in the nation. Will that be enough to stop Demond Williams?
Verdict: My cold number on this game is Washington -10, but I think that the motivation lies more with Boise State. When Washington stepped up in class, they got beat pretty bad against all teams in the top 25. Wait for a better number when Denzel Boston and Jonah Coleman get announced in this game.
Play: Lean Boise State +10 and a take at 10.5
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl – Troy vs. Jacksonville State +2.5 O/U 46.5
Location: Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Troy’s Motivation: Medium Low – You do not get much for beating a conference USA team.
Jacksonville State’s Motivation: – Medium High – This team is still happy to be in the FBS.
Home: None – Both teams less than 125 miles away.
Troy Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Tae Meadows
- DE DJ Jackson (350 snaps)
Troy Injuries
- LT Elijah Prather (last played in Week 7)
- QB Goose Crowder is questionable.
Jacksonville State Injuries
- LG Adrian Gumm (missed finale)
- CB Tyrin Taylor (missed finale)
- DT Jawaun Campbell (last played in Week 11)
Net Yards Per Play: Jacksonville State +1.21
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Despite the large disparity in strength of schedule with Troy ranking 93rd, and Jacksonville State ranking 142nd,
The Gamecocks run the ball well and rank 5th in rush attempts, while Troy struggles to defend the run ranking 81st in defensive rush EPA.
Verdict: This line is definitely off. Jacksonville State has the much better offense and should be motivated here.
Play: Jacksonville State +2.5 – 2 stars
Wednesday, Dec. 17
Staff DNA Cure Bowl – Old Dominion vs. South Florida -3.5 O/U 53.5
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time: 5 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Old Dominion’s Motivation: High – They get a chance to beat an AAC team that beat Florida.
South Florida’s Motivation: Low – They lost their shot at the playoffs and they lost their coach to Auburn.
Home: South Florida’s campus only 91 miles away so give the 2.5 points for that.
Old Dominion Opt-Outs
- Starting QB Colton Joseph
Old Dominion Injuries
- CB Botros Alisandro (last played in Week 10)
USF Opt-Outs
- QB Byrum Brown
USF Injuries
- S Tavin Ward (missed final two games)
- CB James Chenault (last played in Week 11)
- DE Dennard Flowers (missed finale)
- WR Christian Neptune (last played in Week 12)
Net Yards Per Play: Even both at +2.0
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both quarterbacks are out, but I think that this hurts South Florida on a larger scale. Byrum Brown was the heart and soul of this Bulls team, and backup Gaston Moore hasn’t even sniffed much playing time. Each team is relatively equal in many aspects of the game minus strength of schedule which gives that edge to USF, and great QB play to the Bulls as well.
Verdict: Both teams run the ball quite well. The American Athletic conference was better than the Sun Belt. I think this number is close to correct at -3.5 until we see more opt outs. What I do notice is that both teams play fast with the Monarch’s ranking 21st in pace and USF ranking 2nd in pace
Play: Strong lean to the over 53.5
68 Ventures Bowl – Louisiana vs. Delaware +3 O/U 59.5
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
Time: 8:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Louisiana’s Motivation: Medium Low – Probably just happy to make a bowl game.
Delaware’s Motivation: High – Their first bowl game in their first year of FBS football.
Home: Semi-home for Louisiana at 255 miles away, but just .5 as Delaware should travel for this.
Louisiana Injuries
- FS Tyree Skipper (last played in Week 11)
- C Cooper Fordham (missed finale)
Delaware Injuries
- RB Jo Silver (returned in finale, but only played 23 snaps)
- OG Patrick Shupp (last played in Week 11)
- WR Ja’Carree Kelly (missed finale)
- TE Connor Witthoft (last played in Week 11)
- LB Dillon Trainer (last played in Week 11)
Net Yards Per Play: Louisiana +.19
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Delaware ranks 51st in offensive success rate while Louisiana ranks 114th. Both defenses ranks 88th and 89th in opponent EPA. Delaware has the passing advantage against a weak pass D, while Louisiana has the rushing advantage over a weak rush D as you can see from the above chart.
Verdict: It’s amazing how conference USA gets so disrespected in bowl games. Louisiana’s best win this year was probably against Texas State. They play close games when they win.
Play: Delaware +3 – 2 stars
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