UNLV vs Boise State +4.5 O/U 59.5
🏈 Game Context
- Date/Time: Friday, Dec. 5, 2025, 6:00 PM MT (8:00 PM ET) on FOX
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
- History: Boise State has dominated the series, winning 10 straight vs UNLV dating back to 1977. They’ve also beaten the Rebels in the last two Mountain West title games.
- Recent Meeting: Boise State crushed UNLV 56–31 in October.
🔑 Team Breakdown
Boise State Broncos
- Record: 8-4 (6-2 MWC)
- Strengths:
- Defense: Top-15 nationally in pass defense (167.3 yds allowed/game).
- Balanced Offense: 430.4 yards/game, with 189.8 rushing yards (30th in FBS).
- Key Player: RB Dylan Riley, who has carried the offense down the stretch.
- Momentum: Narrow 25–24 win over Utah State last week.
UNLV Rebels
- Record: 10-2 (6-2 MWC)
- Strengths:
- Explosive Offense: 463.3 yards/game, 37.2 points/game (12th nationally).
- QB Anthony Colandrea: Leads the Mountain West with 3,050 passing yards and 22 TDs.
- Weakness: Defense ranks 118th nationally, allowing 421.5 yards/game.
- Momentum: 42–17 win over Nevada last week.
📊 Team Comparison
| Category | UNLV Rebels | Boise State Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10–2 (6–2 MWC) | 8–4 (6–2 MWC) |
| Points per Game | 37.2 | 30.8 |
| Points Allowed per Game | 28.1 | 23.2 |
| Total Yards per Game | 463.3 | 430.4 |
| Passing Yards per Game | 258.6 | 240.6 |
| Rushing Yards per Game | 204.7 | 189.8 |
| Opponent Passing Yards Allowed | 246.0 | 167.1 |
| Opponent Rushing Yards Allowed | 175.5 | 162.3 |
Sources:
🔑 Player Leaders
UNLV Rebels
- QB Anthony Colandrea: 238/349, 3,050 yards, 22 TD, 8 INT
- RB Jai’Den Thomas: 127 carries, 944 yards, 12 TD
- WR Jaden Bradley: 51 receptions, 834 yards, 4 TD
- LB Marsel McDuffie: 94 tackles
Boise State Broncos
- QB Maddux Madsen: 152/255, 1,994 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT
- RB Dylan Riley: 164 carries, 1,016 yards, 10 TD
- WR Latrell Caples: 43 receptions, 515 yards, 3 TD
- LB Ty Benefield: 88 tackles
- DE Tunmise Adeleye: 6 sacks
Sources:
🏟️ Game Outlook
- Boise State Strength: Elite pass defense (167.1 yds allowed/game, top 15 nationally).
- UNLV Strength: High-powered offense (37.2 PPG, 463.3 YPG).
- Betting Line: Boise State favored by 4.5; Over/Under 58.5.
- Implied Score: Broncos 32, Rebels 27.
Prediction:
- This is a game that we have seen a few times in the past few years, yet Boise State still gets the nod for home field as well as laying some pretty big points.
- Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen will be back starting after being out for about a month. Backup Quarterback Max Cutforth was doing a fine job to get Boise State back in this position.
- I honestly think that this Boise State team isn’t quite as good as they were in years past.
- Last week, the Broncos should have lost to Utah State as the Aggies completely choked the lead and the game away in the fourth quarter against the Aggies.
- Maybe Maddux Madsen is back to his winning ways, but it sure didn’t show well for this team when they could only score seven points earlier this season against UCF and Notre Dame.
- UNLV has improved since losing to Boise State by double digits. The defense started to figure it out only allowing 26 to a solid Utah State team as well as only 10 points to Hawaii.
- Believe it or not, the Rebels have an offense ranking 11th in EPA to Boise State who ranks 53rd. Boise has the better defense, but they seem to lack against the run only ranking 121st in defensive rush EPA. That is where the Rebs can do some damage ranking 8th in rush EPA. The Rebels also have a net yard per play advantage of .66 to .47 for the Broncos. I think I see a close game here with Boise probably winning by 2 or three points.
- This is a double revenge spot for the Rebels from this year’s game and last year’s championship. Take the road dog.
UNLV +4.5 – 2 stars
