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Texas vs Mississippi State +7 O/U 45.5
🏈 Game Overview
- Matchup: No. 18 Texas (5–2, 2–1 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (4–3, 0–3 SEC)
- Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, Starkville, MS
🔍 Team Form & Storylines
Texas Longhorns
- Coming off a narrow 16–13 overtime win against Kentucky, Texas is clinging to its College Football Playoff hopes.
- The offense, led by QB Arch Manning, has struggled—Manning completed just 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards last week.
- The defense remains elite, allowing fewer than 14 points in five of the last six games and ranking 13th nationally in total defense.
- A loss here would likely end their SEC title and playoff aspirations.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- The Bulldogs started 4–3 but are on a three-game SEC losing streak, including a close 23–21 loss to Florida.
- Their offense averages 31.9 points per game, but the defense has been inconsistent, especially against the run.
- Second-year head coach Jeff Lebby has doubled last season’s win total, but the team is still seeking its first conference win.
🔑 Key Matchups
- Texas Defense vs. MSU Offensive Line: Texas has racked up 21 sacks this season, and Mississippi State’s ability to protect the quarterback will be crucial.
- Time of Possession: MSU is known for controlling the clock, which could be a problem for a Texas team that struggled with possession against Kentucky.
📊 Betting Lines (via BetMGM)
- Spread: Texas -7
- Moneyline: Texas -250, Mississippi State +200
- Over/Under: 44.5 points
📊 Advanced Team Stats
Texas Longhorns
- Record: 5–2 (2–1 SEC)
- Offensive Efficiency:
- Yards per game: 368.1 (81st in FBS)
- Passing: 218.7 ypg (79th)
- Rushing: 149.4 ypg (74th)
- Scoring: 26.7 ppg (80th)
- Defensive Efficiency:
- Yards allowed per game: 279.7 (13th)
- Passing defense: 196.4 ypg (39th)
- Rushing defense: 83.3 ypg (6th)
- Scoring defense: 13.9 ppg (Top 10 nationally)
- Key Metric: 21 sacks on the season, top 25 in sack rate
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Record: 4–3 (0–3 SEC)
- Offensive Efficiency:
- Yards per game: 405.9 (58th)
- Passing: 227.7 ypg (70th)
- Rushing: 178.1 ypg (48th)
- Scoring: 31.9 ppg (50th)
- Defensive Efficiency:
- Yards allowed per game: 351.3 (52nd)
- Passing defense: 187.3 ypg (30th)
- Rushing defense: 164.0 ypg (98th)
- Scoring defense: 20.3 ppg (37th)
🔮 Prediction
- This market on Texas games is the gift that keeps on giving.
- The Longhorn offense ranks a bad 102nd in success rate and 91st in EPA. They have a solid defense ranking 9th in EPA, but they are on the road this week.
- The Bulldogs on the other hand are quite opposite. They rank a nice 33rd in offensive success rate and 49th in EPA, but tend to struggle more on defense ranking 61st in success rate and 49th in defensive EPA.
- Looking at the numbers, I think that the home dog is live here. Mississippi State had Florida last week dead nuts, and quarterback Blake Shapen made a bad decision at the end of the game throwing a pick.
- Now at home, I think that this powerful Bulldog offense could win this game, if not back door this large spread.
- I think that Jeff Lebby will have his team fired up to play the Longhorns here. Take the dog.
Mississippi State +7 – 2 stars
Rutgers vs Purdue +2.5 O/U 59.5
- Purdue is in a home run spot right here. It is a Home run homecoming spot.
- Sometimes teams are better than their record and that happens when they have a very hard schedule, and/or they turn the ball over all of the time.
- Well in Purdue’s case, they have both. The Boilermaker schedule ranks 15th on Sagarin, and they are a bad -11 in turnover margin.
- I know that Purdue’s starting quarter back Ryan Browne will most likely miss this week, but I actually prefer Malachi Singleton as he is the more dynamic runner with some better stats to boot.
- The Good news for Purdue is that even with the hard schedule, this team is a decent -.17 net yards per play.
- Purdue’s opponent this week in Rutgers is a nasty -2.19 yards per play on a schedule that ranks 30th in the league. Rutgers ranks a pretty bad 123rd in defensive success rate to Purdue’s 77th. I think the Boilers get their first conference win here at home.
- Take the short dog at home on Homecoming night.
Purdue +2.5 – 2 stars
