CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl – Miami vs Ole Miss +3.5 O/U 51.5
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Injuries:
Miami:
| D. Simpson | DL | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Wed, Dec 31) |
|
| M. Bryant | LB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Wed, Dec 31) |
|
| D. Upshaw | WR | Questionable – Foot ( Wed, Dec 31) |
|
| D. Brown | CB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Wed, Dec 31) |
Ole Miss:
| C. Beavers | CB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| J. Saunders Jr. | S | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| R. Collins | LB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
Net Yards Per Play: Miami +.14
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: It is clear that Ole Miss has a glaring weakness, and that is their opponent rushing success rate ranking 104th. We saw Georgia run up and down the field on them, yet got away from the run in a losing effort. The big thing for me in this handicap is that Ole Miss has the biggest wildcard in the playoffs in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He singlehandedly won the Sugar Bowl game for the Rebs, and I cannot discount that. I also wonder if there is a real coaching advantage for the Cane’s as Mario Cristobal has blown some big games in the past. Rebels coach Pete Golding has his kids motivated. In theory, Miami should just run the ball, and run some more, but we did see the Rebels slow Georgia’s run game down some in the second half. I think that the back door could be wide open for a motivated Ole Miss team, and there is a chance that they are the ones with the lead towards the end, but Miami and Carson Beck do have the rushing attack and the experience at quarterback to finish out the game. I lean a little Miami ML and lean the points to take for Ole Miss.
Lean Ole Miss +3.5
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl – Oregon vs Indiana -4 O/U 47.5
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Injuries:
Indiana:
| Player | POS | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Franke | K | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| S. Daley | DL | Out – Leg ( Wed, Dec 10) |
|
| K. Wyatt | DL | Out – Undisclosed ( Sat, Nov 1) |
|
| B. Bonds | CB | Out – Undisclosed ( Sat, Sep 27) |
|
| L. Beebe Jr. | RB | Out – Leg ( Fri, Sep 26) |
Oregon:
| G. Wilson | OG | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| E. Stewart | WR | Questionable – Knee ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| K. Lopa | CB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| D. Riggs | RB | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| J. Lowe | WR | Questionable – Undisclosed ( Thu, Jan 1) |
|
| K. Kasper | WR | Out – Undisclosed ( Sat, Oct 11) |
|
| M. Hughes | RB | Out – Redshirt ( Wed, Oct 1) |
|
| B. Boulton | OG | Out – Undisclosed ( Sat, Sep 27) |
Net Yards Per Play: Oregon +.15
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: This really should be the championship game as these are the best two teams left in the playoffs. The best unit on the field just might be Indiana’s defense ranking 5th in success rate and 7th in EPA. Oregon’s defense is the weakness, but I do give their offense a slight edge over Indiana’s offense mainly due to their creativity. My biggest question is how can we really credit Indiana for blowing out a very overrated Alabama team? This gives us value on the line. My number on this game is Indiana -3. I think that they probably win this game, but four points is too much and worth a bet on the Ducks. Can’t wait for this game!
Oregon +4 – 2 stars
