College Football Week 12 Free Plays – Penn State vs Michigan State – Colorado State vs New Mexico – Sports Betting

Penn State vs Michigan State +7.5 O/U 49.5

🏟️ Game Details

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
• Broadcast: CBS

📊 Team Records & Odds

• Penn State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
• Michigan State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
• Spread: Penn State -7
• Over/Under: 49.5 points

🔑 Offensive Leaders

🛡️ Defensive Leaders

• Penn State: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton – 3 sacks
• Michigan State: DE Michael Spencer – team leader in sacks

📈 Team Stats

• Penn State Offense: 335.7 yards per game (110th in FBS)
  • Passing: 184.7 ypg (110th)
  • Rushing: Balanced attack led by Allen & Singleton
• Penn State Defense: 325.8 yards allowed per game (33rd nationally)
• Michigan State Offense: Slightly stronger passing game with Chiles & Marsh
• Michigan State Defense: Struggling with injuries, multiple starters out

🏈 Game Context

• Rivalry: The matchup is for the Land Grant Trophy, a traditional rivalry prize between the two schools.
• Records: Both teams sit at 3–6 overall and 0–6 in Big Ten play, making this a battle to avoid finishing winless in conference.
• Recent Form:
  • Penn State nearly upset No. 2 Indiana last week, losing 27–24 after surrendering a late touchdown.
  • Michigan State fell in overtime to Minnesota, 23–20, extending its losing streak to six games.

🔑 Key Storylines

• Coaching Turmoil: Penn State fired longtime coach James Franklin a month ago. Interim coach Terry Smith is trying to salvage the season.
• Michigan State Woes: The Spartans are dealing with vacated wins from past seasons due to ineligible players, plus multiple injuries across the roster.
• Quarterback Watch: MSU redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic showed promise in his first start against Minnesota, and could be key against Penn State’s defense.
• Penn State’s Close Calls: Despite their record, the Nittany Lions have lost five Big Ten games by a combined 16 points, showing they’ve been competitive.

Prediction:

• Penn State literally went through a gauntlet of opponents after their Northwestern loss.   Losing by one to Iowa, playing a strong first half against Ohio State before the crumble, and almost beating Indiana straight up.
• To be honest, I honestly do not see how this team could keep going more less laying over seven points on the road.
• Michigan State is coming off of the bye week recharged and ready to roll.  As bad as this team has looked this year, they still only have a net negative .51 yards per play on a pretty rough schedule.
• Penn State has a +.21 net yards per play, but this team is struggling with a backup quarterback.
• Another thing that I like for Sparty is that the team benched struggling quarterback Aiden Childs for Alessio Milivojevic.   This kid has played pretty well thus far, and should be able to lead this team going forward.
• Michigan State is in a good spot this week.   I believe that coach Jonathan Smith will get his guys motivated to try and make a bowl game.   I am just not sure what Penn State cares about this point with preseason playoff expectations.  Take the dog.

Michigan State +7.5 – 2.5 stars

Colorado State vs New Mexico -14.5 O/U 53.5

• This is an under the radar Mountain West game that I feel has some value.
• The Lobos are a force to be reckoned with.  With the San Diego State loss, this team has a shot to make the Mountain West championship game.
• Colorado State on the other hand is a hopeless team.   They only have two wins with no chance of making a bowl game.
• This Rams team has a -1.35 yards per play.  They are rank 95th in offensive EPA and 118th on defense.
• The Lobos are a powerful mountain west team with solid numbers.   New Mexico ranks 41st in offensive EPA and 68th in defensive success rate.   They have some nice wins against Utah State and UCLA.  I think that the Lobos can clean up here pretty well coming off the bye week.    I’ll lay the points.

New Mexico -14.5 – 2 stars