Tennessee vs Florida +4.5 O/U 57.5
Tennessee vs Florida is set for Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET in Gainesville. The No. 20 Volunteers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) are favored, but history shows Florida (3-7, 2-5 SEC) has dominated this rivalry at home, winning 10 straight in The Swamp since 2003.
🔑 Key Storylines
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Historic Struggles for Tennessee in Gainesville The Vols haven’t won at Florida since 2003, dropping 10 straight road games in the series. Florida has won 17 of the last 20 overall matchups.
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Florida’s Motivation Despite a disappointing season (3-7), the Gators are embracing the spoiler role. Interim coach Billy Gonzales leads a team that wants to protect home turf and ruin Tennessee’s finish.
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Tennessee’s Stakes At 7-3, Tennessee is out of the College Football Playoff race but still ranked No. 20. A win would secure momentum heading into their final rivalry game against Vanderbilt and potentially improve bowl positioning.
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Coaching Drama in Gainesville Florida fired Billy Napier in October, leaving Gonzales in charge. The offense has struggled since, but rivalry games often bring surprises.
📊 Team Comparison
| Category | Tennessee Volunteers | Florida Gators |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7–3 (3–3 SEC) | 3–7 (2–5 SEC) |
| Points per Game | 43.4 | 20.8 |
| Passing Yards/Game | 318.3 | 217.1 |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 176.7 | 122.4 |
| Opponent Points/Game | 28.9 | 23.6 |
| Opponent Passing Yards/Game | 260.2 | 223.1 |
| Opponent Rushing Yards/Game | 130.1 | 143.2 |
Sources:
🔑 Key Players
Tennessee
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QB Joey Aguilar: 2,941 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT
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RB DeSean Bishop: 770 rushing yards, 10 TD
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WR Chris Brazzell II: 873 receiving yards, 8 TD
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LB Edwin Spillman: 65 tackles
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DL Dominic Bailey: 6 sacks
Florida
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QB DJ Lagway: 1,980 passing yards, 12 TD, 13 INT
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RB Jadan Baugh: 808 rushing yards, 6 TD
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WR Vernell Brown III: 473 receiving yards
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LB Myles Graham: 55 tackles
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EDGE Kamran James: 4 sacks
Prediction:
- In college football sometimes stats do not matter all that much. This rivalry has been huge for many many years. The problem for the Vols is that this game is in Florida.
- The last time Tennessee beat Florida in Gainesville (The Swamp) was on September 20, 2003! That is 22 years ago.
- Look at the ATS history in this game at both locations, Florida has covered six out of the last seven.
- In saying all that, the Vols also are not exactly a world beater this year.
- Let’s now bring some numbers in the equation either way. This Vols team has a pretty bad defense ranking 109th in success rate and 65th in defensive EPA. Their offense is good, but they are not a team that anyone would want to lay points with.
- Tennessee has also had some road struggles against Alabama and Mississippi State where they were very fortunate to win that game outright.
- I think the play is the Gators, and we have 22 years of history here on our side.
Florida +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Missouri State vs Kennesaw State -6.5 O/U 57.5
- Going back to the fade train here.
- Don’t get me wrong. I like this Feisty Owls team that has been playing some great ball in conference USA, but I really do not understand how they can be playing six points to the Missouri State Bears.
- One big thing that I like to look for in my handicapping is improvement. Since losing to SMU, the Bears have won six of their last seven games with wins against Liberty and FIU.
- The Owls were on a similar run themselves, but they just got a reality check last week against the Jaguars.
- If you go back a little farther, the Owls probably should not have beaten a UTEP team that was pretty much officiating out of the game. UTEP actually won the box score there.
- The Bears have a solid passing offense ranking 64th in drop back EPA. This is where they can find success as the Owls only rank 105th in opponent passing success rate. I see a close game here. Take the Bears to cover.
Missouri State +6.5 – 2 stars
