Tennessee at Chicago -3.5 O/U 37.5
Head coaches making their team and/or NFL debut is what I like to target specifically in week 1. AE last night, the Broncos #1-unit played majority of the first half getting as many reps as one would want in a preseason game. Flip the script, it was NFL head coach debut for Arizona’s Jonathon Gannon, and he gets the W. Had you made a halftime (Den)/fulltime (Ari) play you would have been handsomely rewarded. Your probably thinking, well what does that have to do with this game? Well, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus made his NFL debut last season, and the Bears were 3-0 in August. Some would argue Siemian played a factor throwing for 3 total TDs in weeks one and two, but luckily for us he is not on the team anymore. Regardless, I expect a more vanilla play calling and for Fields to be severely held back with fans excited for his 2023 regular season debut. Meaning we will see PJ Walker and Nathan Peterman for the remainder of this game, Tennessee’s 2nd and 3rd string should have no trouble stopping. Well why do I say that? Mike Vrabel’s last four-week 1 preseason affairs, the defense has given up on average less than 10 points per game. 3, 10, 3 and 23 respectively in each game. The last 2 years in 6 total preseason games, the defense has held the opponent to 3 points in 3 of the 6. I mean should we be surprised? He harps on gritty, knocks you in the mouth, hardnosed football. Yes, even the second and third stringers.
Now let’s talk about the Tennessee offense, or in this instance, lack of. Tannehill will be limited, if any reps. Possible to see an extra series due to his extensive injury last season. Again, regardless of his action, we shouldn’t see unit #1 on the field too long, Tannehill, Henry, and Hopkins specifically. Which leaves Malik Willis and Will Levis. The media has reported that Willis has been “better” through the offseason, hard to buy it in my opinion. He was a disaster last season, but maybe facing a Bears second and third string could help, again I don’t believe so. Eberflus is a defensive guy and I anticipate a jump forward in their defense this year. As far as Levis, I was not high on him in college nor am I at the pro level. He will have to take giant strides to produce in any game at this level.
So, combine those four QB’s: Walker, Peterman, Willis, and Levis I can’t see this game anywhere near the upper 30’s. Fortunately for us under backers, due to some of the higher scoring games last preseason and so far, this year, we are getting a great number! Above the key number of 37. Let’s back the under today and get a low scoring game in Chicago.
Tennessee-Chicago under 37.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5u
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