Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
NL EAST
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
New York Mets +115/ 90.5
Atlanta Braves +115/ 90.5
Philadelphia Phillies +375/ 85.5
Miami Marlins +1200/ 76.5
Washington Nationals +3000/ 71.5
New York Mets – The Amazin’ Mets are all new and shiny. They’ve got a new GM and a new manager, If healthy the best 1-2 punch of starting pitchers in MLB, along with some nice additions to solidify the rest of the rotation. This is also a veteran lineup that is fairly solid top to bottom. But let’s start with the rotation, Scherzer and Degrom could team up for 40 wins if the cards fall right. Scherzer isn’t getting any younger though and Degrom’s body already has shown it can’t handle the stress getting put on it. The rest of the rotation is solid. Chris Bassitt acquired from Oakland is hugely underrated and should thrive in Citi Field. Carlos Carrasco should come back healthy this year, and Taijaun Walker is a serviceable number 5 starter. If they can eat up enough innings they should be able to get the ball to a much improved bullpen with Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro setting things up for Edwin Diaz who is one of the top 5 stoppers in baseball. The lineup will feature table setter and speedster Starling Marte at the top, followed by Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor. There should be plenty of guys getting on for Pete Alonso to come move around. Alonso should also get some more lineup protection with Eduardo Escobar behind him. I think the Mets win the division this year, and if the staff stays mostly healthy they could run away with it. Prediction 91-71
Atlanta Braves – The defending 2021 World Series champs come into 2022 having swapped out star first basemen in the middle of their order and with some questions at the back end of the rotation. Matt Olson replaces the face of the franchise Freddie Freeman at first base. Olson actually outhit Freeman last year and has made adjustments to his swing that have greatly helped reduce his strikeout rate. I think the Braves made the right move here and got the better player long term for less money. They also will be getting their all world OF Ronald Acuna Jr. back sometime in May as he recovers from an ACL tear. Their rotation is anchored by Max Fried and veteran Charlie Morton, but after that the waters get murky. Huascar Ynoa will look to take a step forward, and Ian Anderson will hope to sustain his rookie success from a year ago. I don’t see either happening. The wild card in the staff will be Mike Soroka, who has suffered Achilles injuries the last two seasons. He has a 2.86 ERA in 37 career starts and if they can get him up and healthy it will increase their chances of repeating. Their bullpen is one of the best in the majors with Kenley Jansen coming over from the Dodgers and Will Smith holding down the back end of games. Tyler Matzuk, AJ Minter and Luke Jackson are all formidable arms to hold down the late innings of games where they have the lead. Prediction 90-72
Philadelphia Philles – The Fightin’ Phils look like they will have a say in how the east is won this year. They almost did in 2021, as they got swept out of contention by the Braves in the second to last series of the year. They have made improvements over 2021 especially on offense where they added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to give them a big bopper on both sides of the dish to help protect Bryce Harper. The Phillies are gonna hit a ton of Home Runs this year which is good because it is not a lineup built to formulate big innings through small ball. There is not much speed on this team, and at the expense of those Home Runs also comes some defensive liability all around the diamond. The pitching staff is led by Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler plus an intriguing number 3 starter in Ranger Suarez who has potential to turn into an ace. Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin will be at the back end of the rotation and both are solid if unspectacular options. Corey Knebel is the guy currently slated at the back end of the bullpen, but they also have Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Seranthony Dominguez that could close games. This bullpen is much improved vs 2021. At the end of the day this team could make some noise in the division, but I think they are still a step behind the Braves and Mets. Prediction 85-77
Miami Marlins – How about the fish? Well their rotation is going to win them some games this year. Trevor Rogers is an ace in the making. He had one of only 12 seasons ever in the modern era last year where someone had a 10+K/9 and a HR/9 under .45. Other names with seasons like that include, Nolan Ryan, Clayton Kershaw, Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens, Jacob Degrom. The rest of the rotation features studs Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez at the front, and Jesus Luzardo and Elisar Hernandez and the bottom. All are capable of great performances, and they are going to need them to carry the lineup for the Fish. They made some upgrades bringing in Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia, but they still lack consistency from top to bottom. Another guy to keep an eye on for a breakout campaign is Jazz Chisholm who has 30/30 potential. The bullpen is not good. They will struggle to closeout leads at the end of games. I think as the pitching staff continues to get better they will improve, but until some of the bats down on the farm are ready and they bring in some real talent on offense they won’t compete for a division title. Prediction 79-83
Washington Nationals – The Nats still feature one of the best players in all of baseball in Juan Soto. The dude can straight up rake. Not enough however to keep them from another 90 loss campaign. The only other pieces in the lineup with any sort of proven track record are Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz, and I guarantee you Cruz will be shipped out to a contender come July. Stephen Strasburg is still around in the rotation, but this is a broken down Strasburg, not the one that made all the noise with Bryce Harper when they were back to back #1 picks. The rest of the rotation is a hot mess and the bullpen is a dumpster fire. This team is going to be very bad. Prediction 68-94
My Free plays on the NL East are on the bottom two teams and are as follows:
Miami Marlins – Over 76.5 Wins 1 Unit
Washington Nationals Under 71.5 Wins 2 Units
