After a crazy start to the season we’ve leveled off a bit here in May. We are still well up for the year with a 205-190-11 overall record putting us at +56.88 Units on MLB for the season. Totals have been the killer for us the last few weeks in May as we booked our second straight losing week. Hoping to get us back on track this week and grow the number. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Petco Park in San Diego, CA where the Padres (31-22) will host the Philadelphia Phillies (27-27 ) at 9:45 ET. The current line sits with the Padres as slight favorites at -106 (Phillies -104) with an Over/Under of 7.5 -110. Game time temp is 65 degrees with winds blowing across from left field at around 10 mph.
The Phillies will start former “Ace” Aaron Nola. He enters the game with a 6.04 ERA. Some of his underlying metrics say he is due for some big positive regression including his 3.69 xFIP. Sometimes the real numbers are telling the truth though also. I’ll get in more detail on that here shortly when I get to the handicap.
The Friars will start Randy Vasquez who holds a 2.96 ERA. His underlying metrics say he is due for some negative regression as his xFIP sits at 4.17.
Neither of these teams have been good on the offensive side of the ball. The Phillies enter the game with a .681 OPS good for 26th in MLB. The Padres have been even worse sitting at .657 with only the Mets showing up lower in the rankings. As a matter of fact I’ve got as many Home Runs in MLB this year as Fernando Tatis Jr. which is exactly zero.
The bullpens have been have both been solid this year with the Padres 5th in MLB with a 3.13 ERA. Having Mason Miller certainly helps that number. The Phillies are at 15th sitting at 3.93. Miller has only thrown 13 pitches in one appearance over the last week. The Phillies on the other hand have used their closer and top reliever Jhoan Duran in three of the last four games so I would assume he is unavailable tonight. They’ve also thrown Brad Keller and Orion Kerkering in two of the last three, so the Padres will likely have the more well rested pen tonight.
My Handicap certainly takes into account Vasquez is due to regress some, but pitchers do change and develop more even after they reach the majors. His biggest difference is his K-rate is up almost 2 batters per nine innings over last year. Looking at the pitch metrics he has increased his Fastball/Change-up usage and lowered his slider percentage. He is actually giving up more hard contact this year than last and the BABIP against is up to reflect that. Walk rate for Vasquez is also down from 2025. Moral of the story on Vasquez is other than his strand rate looking a little high I think we are seeing the real version of him and I expect a little negative regression here, but not to the extent his xFIP or xERA are showing.
Nola on the other hand has been labeled as an “Ace” in the past as I’ve mentioned in the opening and his strikeout to walk ratios throughout his career would agree with that statement. He has a career 9.82 K/9 to go with a 2.38 BB/9. Where the change has happened with Nola is he is giving up a higher percentage of fly-balls compared to ground balls than earlier in his career. Up until 2020 his lowest ground ball rate was 49.7%. Since then his highest was 44.5% and this year he is at 40.9%. Mixing that increased fly-ball rate with a career 14.2% HR/FB percentage and you can see where his struggles are coming from. Much of this is due to a decrease in pitch values across the board from prior to 2020. His hard hit percentage the last two seasons is over 40%. Average exit velocity against is at 89.2MPH. This puts him in the bottom third of all qualified MLB pitchers and certainly not in the “Ace” territory.
With preferring Vasquez over Nola and the Phillies with bullpen usage issues I will gladly put money on the Padres tonight near even money and look to leverage a plus money RL.
Padres -106, 1 Unit. Padres RL +180, 1 Unit.
