Baseball season is rolling. Since our last article we went on a huge hot streak with a 41 Unit week last week. We now sit at 110-79-1 on the season overall +58.88 units. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA where the Pirates (16-14) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (16-13) at 6:40 ET. The current line sits with the Pirates as favorites at -140 (Cardinals +130) with an Over/Under of 8.5 -110. Game time temp is 59 degrees with a chance of rain and winds blowing out to center at 10-15.
The Pirates will start Bubba Chandler who has struggled out of the gate. His strikeouts are down and his walk rate is way up. ERA is currently at 4.88 with an xFIP at 5.30. His BABIP against is extremely low currently at .242 so he’s actually been lucky in that regards so far. His pedigree and minor league track record show that he is due for some positive regression.
The Cardinals will roll with Andre Pallante who has a 4.26 ERA and an xFIP at 4.91. Pallante is an extreme ground ball pitcher who has not been as effective in getting ground balls to start off with in 2026. His GB Rate is currently at 51.3% compared with a career 63.2% number. He has also been lucky with BABIP against at .253. Both his sinker and fastball are showing as negative pitch values early on which is not a great sign for him and is similar to what they were last year when he finished with a 5.31 ERA. Pallante is also one of the worst in the majors at controlling the running game once guys get on base.
On offense both these teams check in near the middle of the pack with the Cardinals boasting a .722 OPS and the Pirates at .704. Both teams are top ten in runs scored per contest with the Cardinals at 4.83 and the Pirates at 4.80.
Pittsburgh has the edge in the bullpens with a 3.49 Bullpen ERA, while St. Louis is one of the worst in MLB with a 5.18 ERA. Neither teams used their best relievers on Tuesday, and in fact Pittsburgh called up a top prospect named Hunter Barco to eat innings and left him to hang out to dry after really burning up their relievers on Monday in a bullpen game where closer Dennis Santana lost the game for them in the ninth.
My handicap is a total fade on Pallante today. Last time winds were blowing out this strong against him was a home start against Boston on April 12th where he gave up a Home Run and six earned runs over five innings. Pittsburgh also runs extremely well on the bases at 28 for 32 on the season and they will take advantage of his inability to hold runners. The Cardinals will likely have Ryan Stanek and Jojo Romero out of the bullpen today as they haven’t pitched since Sunday. Stanek has really struggled thus far. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will have the whole bullpen available after not using anyone but Barco yesterday. I also look for Chandler to bounce back a little for the Pirates, but I don’t expect a totally clean outing from him either with the wind blowing out and a 1.50 HR/9 thus far.
Couple of plays on this game for me.
Over 8.5 2 Units. Pittsburgh -140 1 Unit, Pittsburgh RL +140 1 Unit.
