NBA Freeplay – Betting Preview – Magic at Grizzlies

January 26, 2024

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Orlando at Memphis +6, O/U 212.5

8:10pm ET

The Magic came off their 4-game road trip with very little effort, losing 2 of 3 at home and giving up 124 and 126 points in each of the losses. Not good for a squad giving up on average 111 points so far this season, ranking them 6^th in the league. As we know after a road trip, especially in January, February, and March the effort aspect plays a big factor, then to boot game three was on a back-to-back. Now fast forward, they have a rare THREE rest days and go back on the road to Memphis to face a team struggling mightily on the offensive end. I expect a big defensive performance tonight from the Magic, after getting trounced by the Cavs on January 22^nd, giving up 53% from the field and a robust 56% from behind the arc on only 80 shot attempts!

Unders have been a successful trend backing these two teams as of late. With the Magic going under in 4 straight away games, and 7 out of 9 overall. Holding opposing offenses to 100 points or less in 5 of 9. With both teams ranking in the top 10 defensively and ranking 12^th and 18^th in pace, this is no surprise. As far as the Grizzlies go, losing Morant for the season was a big blow on January 8^th, then Marus Smart went down with a finger injury just days later. Finding offense was going to be a problem. The final nail in the coffin was losing profound 3-point shooter Desmond Bane to an ankle injury, to keep him out for a considerable amount of time. In the 6 games without Bane, they have scored 94, 116, 103, 96, 108 and 105 points, with their offensive “high” coming against the Warriors who play virtually zero defense.

Speaking of road trips, the Grizz have played 7/10 away from home including a trip out west and come off of a 4-game road trip of their own. While splitting the 4 affairs, their defense was very good in the last two, holding the Raptors in their own building to 100 points and keeping the Heat in South Beach under 100. Look, backing the under in Grizzlies games has been a profitable play all season. Going under 9 of their last 14, 7 of their last 8 at home and 13 of 18 at home for the season. We will attack this play tonight!

I know this is a low number at 212.5, but FGA’s will prove to be the final kicker for me. The two teams in their last 5 games are averaging 81 and 84 FGAs per game, and defensively are holding opposing offenses to 85 and 81 FGAs per game. This has the looks to be tight defensive game, slower, and lacking possessions. Which is why we are on the under here, albeit a low number, it’s still a small unit upgrade for me.