⭐ 2025 NFC East — Advanced Metrics (EPA, Success Rate, Pass EPA)

(Rankings: 1 = best, 32 = worst)

⭐ Dallas Cowboys (DAL)

• Off EPA/play — 0.109 (5th)

• Def EPA/play — 0.162 (32nd)

• Off Success Rate — 47.2% (9th)

• Def Success Rate — 48.6% (29th)

• Off Pass EPA — 0.177 (11th)

• Def Pass EPA — 0.239 (31st)

Profile: Elite offense, elite defensive EPA, but one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Explosive but volatile.

⭐ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)

• Off EPA/play — 0.034 (17th)

• Def EPA/play — -0.051 (24th)

• Off Success Rate — 43.3% (23rd)

• Def Success Rate — 42.5% (12th)

• Off Pass EPA — 0.092 (16th)

• Def Pass EPA — -0.017 (11th)

Profile: A middle‑tier offense paired with a top‑12 pass defense. Solid but not special.

⭐ Washington Commanders (WAS)

• Off EPA/play — 0.035 (16th)

• Def EPA/play — 0.152 (31st)

• Off Success Rate — 46.5% (11th)

• Def Success Rate — 47.8% (27th)

• Off Pass EPA — 0.085 (17th)

• Def Pass EPA — 0.239 (31st)

Profile: Top‑6 defense by EPA but bottom‑6 pass defense. Offense is quietly above average. A strange, unbalanced team.

⭐ New York Giants (NYG)

• Off EPA/play — 0.043 (10th)

• Def EPA/play — 0.096 (10th)

• Off Success Rate — 42.9% (25th)

• Def Success Rate — 47.1% (21st)

• Off Pass EPA — 0.099 (15th)

• Def Pass EPA — 0.088 (22nd)

Profile: Top‑10 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but bottom‑10 in success rate. They lived on explosive plays.

Odds to Win the Division

• Eagles +110
• Cowboys +235
• Commanders +500
• Giants +600

1. Philadelphia Eagles – 

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -125

2025 Wins:  11

Pythagorean Wins:  9.72

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Bears, vs Panthers, vs Steelers

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Hard

Key losses:  OC Kevin Patullo, WR AJ Brown, Edge Jaelan Phillips, LB Nakobe Dean, S Reed Blankenship, G Brett Toth, WR Jahan Dotson, DT Brandon Graham, CB Adoree’ Jackson

Key additions: OC Sean Mannion, CB Tariq Woolen, WR Marquise Brown, Edge Arnold Ebiketie

Key Draft Picks:  WR Makai Lemon, TE Eli Stowers, T Markel Bell, G Micah Morris 

Summary: The Eagles were another team with sky-high expectations coming off a Super Bowl-winning season who quickly pointed the finger at their offensive coordinator. Enter 34-year-old Sean Mannion, fresh out of the womb, to fix the offense. I do like that he comes from the Matt LaFleur tree, but how much did he actually learn in a grand total of two years of coaching? He wasn’t even an offensive coordinator in Green Bay.

That said, I love that they retained defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to keep that side of the ball rolling. Head coach Nick Sirianni is the kind of guy who needs strong coordinators to succeed. What I don’t like is the brutal salary-cap hell that comes with winning a Super Bowl. Losing Nakobe Dean will be rough if Zach Baun and Jihad Campbell can’t stay healthy. The defensive line is still the best in the business, but edge rusher becomes a much bigger question mark with Jaelan Phillips heading to Carolina.

The offense should remain solid with Saquon Barkley leading the way, but when Jalen Hurts is forced to do too much, this team tends to crumble. The offensive line is aging, with Lane Johnson now in his 13th year at right tackle. The best player in the secondary is nickelback and part-time safety Cooper DeJean, and there are a lot of new faces back there.

The good news is the Eagles somewhat lucked out with their schedule—the “at large” games aren’t against the strongest division winners. The bad news? They have the second-worst net rest days in the league at -15, facing four teams coming off their bye weeks. I think the Eagles could regress to just average if they’re not careful.

My Number:  10.36

Action – Lean Under

Philadelphia Power rating: 2.5

2. New York Giants –

Vegas Win total:  is 7.5

2025 Wins:  4

Pythagorean Wins:  7.1

Schedule: Medium Hard:  At large games vs Saints, vs Browns, @ Lions

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses:  DT Dexter Lawrence, WR Wandale Robinson, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, S Dane Belton, C Austin Schlottman, QB Russell Wilson, LB Bobby Okereke, G Greg Van Roten

Key additions:  Coach John Harbaugh, TE Isaiah Likely, LB Tremaine Edmonds, DT DJ Reader, CB Greg Newsome, S Ar’Darius Washington, DT Shelby Harris, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Calvin Austin, G Lucas Patrick

Key Draft Picks:  LB Arvell Reese, T Francis Mauigoa, CB Colton Hood, WR Malachi Fields

My Number:  8.55

Action – Over 7.5 wins

NY Giants Power Rating: 0

3.  Dallas Cowboys – 

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -140

2025 Wins:  7.5

Pythagorean Wins:  8

Schedule: Hard – at large vs Ravens*, vs Buccaneers, @ Packers

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: DC Matt Eberflus, Edge Dante Fowler Jr., C Brock Hoffman, LB Logan Wilson, LB Kenneth Murray, S Donovan Wilson, Edge JaDeveon Clowney, Edge Payton Turner

Key additions: DC Christian Parker, Edge Rashan Gary, S Jalen Thompson, CB Decobie Durant, S PJ Locke, DT Otito Ogbonnia, DT Jonathan Bullard

Key Draft Picks: S Caleb Downs, Edge Malachi Lawrence, Edge Jaishawn Barham, T Drew Shelton, CB Devin Moore, Edge LT Overton

Summary: Now that Matt Eberflus has shown his true colors (in case there was any doubt from Bears fans), the Cowboys really can’t get much worse on defense after ranking 32nd in EPA. Don’t get me wrong—plenty of blame can be handed out. Jerry Jones once again blundered by trading his best player to the Packers. The Cowboys responded by drafting three edge rushers. Seems like a lot. They also traded for Rashan Gary to help fill that void.

All that said, I actually like the Cowboys’ draft. The offense doesn’t need much after ranking 5th in offensive EPA—the focus was rightly on the defense. Adding defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a gamble since he was just a position coach coming from Philadelphia under the Fangio tree, but anything is better than Matt Eberflus.

The big question is whether these draft picks can hit. I do think Caleb Downs is a lock for a big second contract. Over the past few years, Dak Prescott has been paid a lot of money to miss the playoffs. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors—finishing second earned them a very difficult “at large” slate. The good news is the Cowboys received a nice +12 in net rest days, which should help against tougher competition.

This is the year this Dallas team has to prove itself—Jerry isn’t getting any younger. I remain skeptical, but I think they’ll beat up on the bad teams and struggle against the good ones. A little over eight wins feels fair for starters.

My Number: 8.25

Action: No lean

Dallas Power Rating: -1

4.  Washington Commanders –

Vegas Win total:  7.5 juiced to the over -120

2025 Wins:  5

Pythagorean Wins:  6.7

Schedule:  Medium Hard – At large vs Bengals, vs Falcons, @ Vikings

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: OC Kliff Kingsbury, DC Joe Whitt, C Tyler Biadasz, RB Chris Rodriguez, LB Jake Martin, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Marshawn Lattimore, WR Deebo Samuel, LB Bobby Wagner, TE Zach Ertz, Edge Von Miller, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Noah Brown

Key additions: OC David Blough, DC Daronte Jones, Edge Odafe Oweh, TE Chig Okonkwo, LB Leo Chenal, DT Tim Settle, CB Amik Robertson, S Nick Cross, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge Charles Omenihu, RB Rachaad White.

Key draft picks: LB Sonny Styles, WR Antonio Williams, Edge Joshua Josephs

Summary: Going from 12-5 to 5-12, the big story for this team was injuries—Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels missed the majority of the year. That said, even in the six games he did play, the Commanders lost four of them, so we have to dig a little deeper. Let’s face it: the head coach is the problem.

This team cruised through a very easy schedule in 2024, and much of that roster is now gone after years of free agency movement. Star wide receiver Terry McLaurin will be joined by two guys who probably shouldn’t be starting in Luke McCaffrey and rookie Antonio Williams. Their best tight end, Zach Ertz, is gone, with Chig Okonkwo now slotted in at the top spot. The defense is gambling on top draft pick Sonny Styles to lead the way. Maybe that works, but there isn’t much talent around him.

Last season, this defense ranked a putrid 31st in EPA per play. I can’t trust that it gets fixed in just one offseason by signing a bunch of mid-level guys. General Manager Adam Peters and Coach Dan Quinn made a huge mistake firing Kliff Kingsbury—this team was in an impossible situation with all the injuries and that schedule in 2025. I think this year may be the last we see of Dan Quinn as an NFL head coach.

My number:  6.35

Power Rating: -3

Action – Under 8.5 wins -155