The NFC West

The NFC West spent last season flexing as the strongest division in football. The Seahawks and Rams were power‑rated one and two, while the 49ers were good but once again caught the dreaded injury bug. And the Cardinals? Well… they remained the red‑headed stepchild of the division — scrappy enough to keep games close, but not exactly striking fear into anyone.

This season brings some major shakeups. The Seahawks are staring down the classic Super Bowl hangover, the Cardinals fired their coach and hit the reset button again, and the Rams and 49ers are trying to figure out whether they’re ascending or plateauing.

The division draws the NFC East and AFC West for the 2026–2027 schedule, which I’d call medium‑hard — not a gauntlet, but definitely not a stroll through the park either.

Can the NFC West produce back‑to‑back Super Bowl champions? The market seems to think it’s possible.

Here’s what I think.

Best Bet – 49ers over 9.5 wins – 1 star

🏈 NFC West — Full League‑Context Rankings + NFC West Grid

1️⃣ Offense — League Ranks for NFC West Teams

EPA/play (Offense)

(From dataset #1)

2️⃣ Defense — League Ranks for NFC West Teams

EPA/play (Defense)

(Reminder: more negative = better)

3️⃣ Composite Score (EPA Differential)

Formula:

Divisional Futures: 

• LA Rams +100
• Seattle Seahawks +205
• SF +305
• Cardinals +10000

1. LA Rams –

Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115

2025 Wins: 12

Pythagorean Wins:  12.08

Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Bills, vs Packers, @ Buccaneers

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses:  Edge Jared Verse, CB Decobie Durant, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Roger McCreary, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, OC Mike Lefleur.

Key additions:  OC Kliff Kingsbury, Edge Myles Garrett, CB Jaylen Watson, LB Grant Stuard, CB Trent McDuffie

Key Draft Picks: QB Ty Simpson, TE Max Klare, T Keagan Trost

Summary

The Rams keep doing Rams things — looking dominant one week and producing absolute head‑scratchers the next. They did make it to the NFC Championship against the Seahawks, but let’s be honest: they probably should’ve lost earlier playoff games to both the Panthers and the Bears. They also entered the postseason as one of the healthiest teams in the league, which certainly didn’t hurt.

Still, I had them power‑rated right alongside the Seahawks, and that carries over.

This offseason, the Rams lost far less talent than Seattle, and then swung for the fences with a massive trade for Myles Garrett, giving up a mountain of future picks. If I were grading the future of this franchise, I’d hand out straight F’s — but the Rams don’t care about 2028. They care about right now, and for this season, the move makes perfect sense. Garrett is the best defensive player in football and commands double‑teams on nearly every snap. He also tends to stay healthy, which is a luxury in this division.

Their trade involving Jared Verse tells me he wasn’t exactly living up to his first‑round billing. Maybe some locker‑room friction, maybe just mediocre 2025 play — either way, the Rams clearly weren’t impressed.

They did lose a few cornerbacks in free agency but replaced them with Jaylen Watson & Trent McDuffie, which is fine as long as that defensive line keeps generating pressure (and with Garrett, they should).

Offensively, the machine should keep humming. Puka returns healthy, and while OC Mike LaFleur left to coach the Cardinals, the Rams promoted Nate Scheelhaase to offensive coordinator. The scheme won’t change much, and they even added Kliff Kingsbury as assistant head coach — a fantastic offensive mind who gives them an extra spark.

Now… the draft. Yeah. That gets an F from me. Reaching for Ty Simpson early in the first round — during what should be the beginning of a rebuild — is the kind of move that gets revisited with a lot of mud thrown at Les Snead if a key injury hits this roster.

My Number: 11.54

Action – No Play

LA Rams power rating:  6.5

2. Seattle Seahawks –

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -115

2025 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  13.34

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Patriots, vs Bears, @ Panthers

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses: OC Klint Kubiak, Edge Boye Mafe, RB Kenneth Walker, S Coby Bryant, CB Tariq Woolen, RB Cam Akers

Key additions: OC Brian Fleury, Edge Donte Fowler Jr., CB Noah Igbinoghene

Key draft picks: RB Jadarian Price, S Bud Clark and a bunch of dudes.

Summary

Let’s all agree to pretend I didn’t pick the Seahawks to finish dead last in the division. Cool? Great. Because Sam Darnold made me look like an absolute clown — and honestly, I might do it again, but he definitely exceeded every expectation I had.

Last year’s Seahawks were built on near‑perfect defensive play. Nobody could get past them. Yes, being the No. 1 seed helped, and yes, the AFC sent a Patriots team that basically tripped and fell into the playoffs, but Seattle still had to grind through a brutal schedule to reach 14 wins. They earned that.

Now, about the draft: I’m not exactly in love with taking Jadarian Price to replace Kenneth Walker. It gives off big Clyde Edwards‑Helaire energy, and that’s not a compliment. Losing edge rusher Boye Mafe and two secondary players could sting, though adding safety Bud Clark should help soften the blow. Even with those losses, I still think this is the best defense in the league.

Re‑signing Rashid Shaheed was smart — he’s a legit receiver and a special teams weapon. But offensively, this team only ranked 14th in EPA, and they didn’t have to do much because the defense carried them. That could become a problem if injuries hit. Losing OC Klint Kubiak doesn’t help either, though bringing in Brian Fleury from the Shanahan tree should keep things functional.

One big factor: the Seahawks were one of the healthiest teams in football last year. That usually doesn’t repeat. Will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Maybe. The schedule is tough again, though the +9 net rest days are a nice gift.

I’ve got this team power‑rated 2nd in the NFL, just a tick behind the Rams — but that could change fast once Week 1 hits.

My number: 11.67

Action – Lean over 10.5 wins

Seattle’s Power Rating:  6.25

3.  San Francisco 49ers –

Vegas Win Total:  9.5 juiced to the over -140

2025 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  10.53

Schedule:  Medium Easy – At large games vs Dolphins, @ Falcons, vs Vikings*

Schedule Last Year: Hard 

Key losses: DC Robert Saleh, WR Jauan Jennings, WR Kendrick Bourne, DT Jordan Elliot, Edge Yetur Gross-Matos, T Spencer Burford, RB Brian Robinson, DT Kalia Davis, DT Kevin Givens

Key additions:  WR Mike Evans, T Vederian Lowe, LB Dre Greenlaw, LB Luke Gifford, CB Nate Hobbs, WR Christian Kirk, G Brett Toth, DC Raheem Morris

Key Draft Picks:  WR De’Zhawn Stribbling, Edge Romello Height, RB Kaelon Black, DT Gracen Halton

Summary

Another year, another injury‑plagued season for the 49ers. At this point it’s practically a franchise tradition. It’s not stopping them from being good, but it sure keeps them from getting past the truly elite teams in the NFL.

Last year they lost a ton in free agency and had a rough draft. This year? They lost far less… but somehow managed to have another piss‑poor draft in my opinion. And yet, they still won 12 games. That’s pretty darn impressive.

To their credit, the 49ers were aggressive in free agency, landing Mike Evans as a red‑zone monster and Christian Kirk as a high‑end slot upgrade. That’s a massive improvement over Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne. Christian McCaffrey is still doing Christian McCaffrey things, which is to say: being a cheat code. And George Kittle remains one of the best tight ends in football — when he’s not held together by athletic tape and prayers.

The offense will be fine. The defense, though… that’s where the concern creeps in.

Can Nick Bosa actually play a full season? Fred Warner returns from injury, but the trenches and secondary aren’t what they used to be. I’m also not a fan of Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator. Losing Robert Saleh still stings, and the Seahawks absolutely ate this team for breakfast last year.

The good news: the schedule eases up. Their at‑large games are against middle‑of‑the‑pack or outright bad teams. With Kyle Shanahan’s coaching and even a little bit of injury luck (I know, I know), the 49ers should be firmly in the mix again.

Their win total feels too low, especially with this softer 2026–2027 schedule. I’m going over.

My Number: 11.27

Action:  Over 9.5

San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 3

4.  Arizona Cardinals – 

Vegas Win Total:  4.5 juiced to the under -160

2025 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  5.33

Schedule: Hard – at large vs Lions, vs Jets, @ Saints

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses: Coach Jonathan Gannon, QB Kyler Murray, S Jalen Thompson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Calais Campbell, LB Ahkeem Davis-Gaither, G Evan Brown, RB Emari Demarcado, T Jonah Williams, Edge Bilal Nichols, T Calvin Beachum, G Will Hernandez.

Key additions: Coach Mike Lefleur, G Isaac Seumalo, RB Tyler Allgeier, DT Roy Lopez, WR Kendrick Bourne, G Elijah Wilkinson, and a bunch of fill in dudes.

Key Draft Picks: RB Jeremiyah Love, G Chase Bisontis, QB Carson Beck

Summary

Ok, can we also pretend the Cardinals weren’t my sleeper pick to win the NFC West in 2025. I’m taking hits from every direction here. But hey — it’s rebuilding time, and this season has full‑blown dumpster fire potential.

To be fair, the Cardinals did pick up some serviceable free agents and added an explosive playmaker at running back. The problem? The offensive line is once again going to be… well, bad. Like “I’m already worried about Jeremiyah Love’s health” bad. James Conner returns to mentor the kid, but he’s firmly in the twilight phase of his career.

The good news: they still have Trey McBride, the best tight end in football. The bad news: Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a disappointment so far. Maybe he finds his confidence again, but that’s more hope than expectation.

One thing I do like: the Carson Beck pick in the third round. He was the second‑best quarterback prospect in the draft in my opinion. If he gets on the field early and outperforms expectations, maybe — maybe — this season isn’t completely lost.

But the bigger issue is the defense. This team ranked 26th in EPA per play, then shed a ton of defenders while keeping the same defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, which feels like a problem. A big one.

As of now, I have to assume the Cardinals will be competing for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft.

My Number:  4.17

Action – Lean Under

Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -8