NHL Picks & Player Props – March 4th, 2024 – Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

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We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Florida Panthers: 41-16-4, 1st Atlantic (21-8-2 Away)
  • New York Rangers: 40-17-4, 1st Metropolitan (21-7-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers -110 -122 -1.5 (+200) o6 (+102)
New York Rangers -110 +102 +1.5 (-245) u6 (-122)

 

The Panthers are currently one of the most formidable teams in the NHL, boasting an impressive 9-1 record in their last ten games. Their sole loss came at the hands of the Hurricanes, who currently trail the Rangers by 6 points in the Metropolitan division standings.

During this stretch, Florida has showcased exceptional defensive prowess, allowing an average of just 1.40 goals against per game. On the offensive front, they’ve been equally formidable, averaging 3.80 goals for per game.

Brandon Montour has seen a resurgence in offensive output for the Panthers, tallying an impressive two points per game over his last four outings. Matthew Tkachuk has also been a standout performer, amassing 18 points in his last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the New York Rangers come into this matchup riding their own hot streak, winning eight of their last ten games, although they have dropped two of their last three contests.

Despite a sluggish start to the season, Igor Shesterkin has found his form in net for the Rangers. In his last five starts, he has allowed more than one goal only once, which occurred in his most recent game against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Rangers’ second line, featuring Panarin and Troceck, has been instrumental in their recent success, with both players averaging a point per game over their last eight outings. Additionally, former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox has elevated his offensive contributions from the blue-line.

 

FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (30-11-2), 2.30 GAA, .918 SV%, +17.5 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

NYR: Igor Shesterkin (26-12-2), 2.66 GAA, .911 SV%, +12.2 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

 

Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Boston Bruins: 35-13-14, 2nd Atlantic (16-6-9 Away)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 35-17-8, 3rd Atlantic (17-11-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Boston Bruins +105 +110 +1.5 (-218) o6 (-125)
Toronto Maple Leafs -125 -130 -1.5 (+180) u6 (+105)

 

Boston has maintained a dominant record against Toronto this season, triumphing in both of their previous encounters.

However, the Bruins’ performance has waned since the All-Star break, posting a 4-4-5 record. Their defensive struggles are evident, conceding at least three goals in each of their last ten games. Despite this, they’ve managed to salvage points from their recent outings, with five of their losses occurring in overtime.

Conversely, Toronto has been in stellar form of late, securing victories in nine of their last ten games. Their lone defeat during this period came against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Throughout the season, the Maple Leafs have exhibited potent offensive prowess, averaging 3.65 goals for per game, ranking them first in the league. Their performance has escalated during their recent hot streak, averaging an impressive 4.70 goals for per game in their last ten outings. William Nylander has spearheaded the offensive charge, amassing 18 points over his last ten games, while Auston Matthews has maintained a remarkable scoring rate, averaging more than a goal per game in his last nine outings. Additionally, Mitchell Marner has been in exceptional form, tallying 23 points in his last 13 games.

 

BOS: Jeremy Swayman (19-6-8), 2.53 GAA, .919 SV%, +13.1 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

TOR: Ilya Samsonov (15-5-6), 3.23 GAA, .883 SV%, -11.1 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

 

Sides/ Totals:

  • Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (-125) – BetMGM

The Blue Jackets have gone 4-6 in their last ten games, which is respectable given the caliber of this team. However, if we take a close look at those four wins they came against San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, and the Rangers. The Sharks, Ducks, and Blackhawks are the only three teams below the Blue Jackets in the overall standings. Their lone notable win occurred in a home-and-home series against the Rangers.

The Golden Knights have not been playing their best hockey of the year and have a narrow lead over the Kings for the 3rd spot in the Pacific Division. Despite having a few key pieces out of their lineup, they need to win these games against lesser opponents. They’ve dropped their last two games and should be motivated to end their losing streak especially after Buffalo gave them a beat down on Saturday night. Adin Hill should get the nod for Vegas who’s been the better of the two goaltenders as of late.

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Late Add:

  • Florida Panthers (-125) – BetMGM

 

Player Props (Shots on Goal):

  • Tyler Bertuzzi over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+145) – DraftKings

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Last year, Tyler Bertuzzi was traded from the Detroit Red Wings to the Boston Bruins. In the off-season, he signed a one-year $5.5 million contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Looking at Bertuzzi’s history against Boston before the trade, he recorded less than 2.5 Shots on Goal in each of his four prior matchups against the Bruins. However, following his time in Boston, he’s gone over this number in each of his two most recent games against them.

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Bertuzzi has hit his shots on goal mark in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5 shot attempts per game.

He’s also been much better at home recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 6 of his last 8 matchups compared to just 2 of his last 10 on the road.

Boston currently ranks 23rd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.47. On the road, that number jumps up to 33.19. They’ve also been worse as of late averaging 33.20 shots on goal against in their last ten games. Looking at the distribution by position, the Bruins have given up the 12th most shots on goal to Wingers this season.

 

Player Props (Points/ Assists):

  • Shea Theodore over 0.5 Assists (+110) – DraftKings

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Theodore recently made a comeback from an upper-body injury that sidelined him for nearly three months. Since rejoining the lineup on February 20th, Theodore has notched nine assists in his initial six games back.

Despite Vegas enduring a challenging stretch in their last ten games, scoring goals hasn’t posed a problem, with an average of 3.20 goals for per game, exceeding their season average. They are set to face a Columbus team that has conceded an average of 3.60 goals against per game in their last ten outings.

Theodore is also a key contributor on the Power Play unit, which should see multiple opportunities tonight, considering an average of three penalties per game against their opponents.

 

  • Mikko Rantanen over 0.5 Assists (-140) – DraftKings

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Mikko Rantanen has extended his streak of consecutive games with an assist to six, and he has recorded assists in eight of his last nine games overall. Particularly at home, Rantanen has been instrumental, contributing assists on goals in eight of his last ten games.

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Facing Chicago, he has tallied an assist in each of his previous seven games against them.

Colorado is set to encounter a Chicago team that has conceded an average of 3.90 goals against per game in their last ten matchups. In their recent clash last week, Colorado managed to score five goals against them.

Notably, in addition to his role on Colorado’s top line, Rantanen also plays a significant part on the Power Play unit.

 

Player Props (Anytime Goal Scorers):

  • Nazem Kadri Anytime Goal Scorer (+205) – BetRivers

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Throughout Calgary’s winning streak, Nazem Kadri has showcased stellar form, finding the back of the net in four of his last five games. His prowess extends to home games, where he has scored in four of his last six outings. Notably, Kadri has demonstrated impressive performance against Seattle, scoring in four of his last nine matchups against them.

During the Flames’ recent ten-game span, they have averaged 3.60 goals for per game, a significant improvement compared to their season average of 3.15 goals for per game. Notably, in their six-game winning streak, they scored four or more goals in five of those victories.

Reflecting on their previous encounter this season, Seattle emerged victorious with a 2-1 win over the Flames. Despite Calgary’s limited scoring, Kadri managed to contribute a goal.

In addition to his role on the first line, Kadri is expected to capitalize on Power Play opportunities. Seattle has consistently incurred penalties in their last eight games, averaging at least three penalties per game. During this stretch, they have conceded a goal in six of those games.

 

  • Tyson Foerster Anytime Goal Scorer (+210) – BetRivers

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Tyson Forester has been on fire lately, finding the back of the net in six of his last ten games. Zooming in on a smaller timeframe, he has scored in four of his last five outings. Particularly at home in Philadelphia, Forester has thrived, registering goals in five of his last six games played there.

Stepping into a more prominent role in the absence of Travis Konecny, Forester has capitalized on first-line minutes and power play time.

Despite a 5-4-1 record in their last ten games, Philadelphia’s offensive output has remained consistent. They have averaged 3.60 goals for per game during this stretch, a notable uptick from their season average. Conversely, St. Louis has experienced a dip in defensive performance, conceding an average of 3.20 goals against per game compared to their season average of 3.08.

 

Linemate and Shot Propz provide all Player Prop Data.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.