NHL Preview & Picks – October 26th, 2023

October 26, 2023

359

We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

Colorado Avalanche @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Goalies:

Seattle Kraken @ Carolina Hurricanes

Goalies:

Seattle Kraken – Joey Daccord: 2-0-1, 2.86 GAA, 0.898 SV% [CONFIRMED]
Carolina Hurricanes – Frederik Andersen: 2-0-0, 4.12 GAA, 0.855 SV% [UNCONFIRMED]

Winnipeg Jets @ Detroit Red Wings

Goalies:

Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders

Goalies:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars

Goalies:

New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers

Goalies:

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

Colorado Avalanche (-141) – Caesars
- Colorado has started the season off strong winning their first six games. They’re 2nd in GF/GP and 3rd in GA/GP. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has had a slow start to the season going 2-4 through their first six games. They’ve been mediocre on both offense and defense. The biggest advantage for Colorado tonight is their goaltender. Alexandar Georgiev currently leads the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +8.2. Tristan Jarry, the expected starter for Pittsburgh tonight ranks 54th with a -1.6 GSAx.

William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-112) – BetRivers
- Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.3 shot attempts per game.
- Dallas currently ranks 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.20. They’ve also given up the most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.
- In three of his last four matchups against the Stars, Nylander has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal.

San Jose Sharks/ Tampa Bay Lightning over 6.5 (-110) – FanDuel
- While I expect the Lightning to provide the majority of scoring in this matchup, the Sharks should be able to contribute 2-3 to the total. Tampa Bay ranks 21st in GA/Gp averaging 3.43. Jonas Johansson, who’s the expected start for the Bolts tonight has allowed three or more goals in three of his last four starts. The Shark’s defense, which ranks 26th in GA/GP averaging 3.67 should be no match for Tampa Bay’s offense who’s been red hot as of late. San Jose’s expected starter, Mackenzie Blackwood has also allowed three or more goals in three of his last four starts.

[JOEL HOFER HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AS THE STARTER FOR ST. LOUIS, IGNORE THIS PLAY]

~~St. Louis Blues/ Calgary Flames Under 6.5 (-134) – FanDuel~~
- Calgary has struggled to start the season with a 2-4-1 record. They have 8th highest Expected Goals For (13.34) but have only scored 11. Opposite of that they rank 16th in Expected Goals Against (11.3) but have given up 19, which is the worst Goal differential in the NHL. The good news is Markstrom is expected to get the start tonight for Calgary who’s been the better goalie of the two. St. Louis has also had a slow start to the season with a 2-2-1 record. The Blues have been great defensively this season, but they have struggled on offense. They have the worst Expected Goals For (8.16) in the NHL and have only scored 8. While Calgary has struggled defensively, the Blues haven’t shown any signs of improving on offense. The Blues should also be able to shut down the Flames up front, especially with Binnington in net who ranks 7th in GSAx with a +4.2.

Player Props to Target:

Brayden Point over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-145) – DraftKings
- Point has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.6 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game.
- San Jose currently ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 38.5. They’ve also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers.
- In three of his last four matchups against the Sharks, Point has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal.

Reilly Smith over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-166) – DraftKings
- Smith has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.7 shots on goal and 4.0 shot attempts per game.
- Colorado currently ranks 11th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 28.67. However, that number increases to 31.75 on the road. They’ve also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
- In five of his last six matchups against the Avalanche, Smith has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal.

Mike Matheson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings/ PointsBet
- Matheson has gone over this number in four of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.3 shots on goal and 4.67 shot attempts per game.
- Columbus currently ranks 25th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.17. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.
- In four of his last five matchups against the Blue Jackets, Matheson has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal.

Scott Laughton over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-175) – DraftKings/ BetMGM
- Laughton has gone over this number in five of his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.7 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game.
- Minnesota currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.17. They’ve also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Centers.
- In each of his last three matchups against the Wild, Laughton has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.