As we inch NFL draft this Thursday April 25th 2024, and once again, there is a lot of speculation on just where these quarterbacks will land. Last year, Will Levis going into the 2nd round was the biggest mock miss of the last few years. He was basically used as a smoke screen while the Tennessee Titans didn’t take the bluff and ended up with their quarterback in the second round. So far, the jury is looking like Levis should have even went later in the draft with his poor performance in 2023. If you know me, then you know that I usually prefer trading down, but I understand that isn’t always possible, so I will try and limit that option. My mock drafts are a little bit different than the marketplace as I like to say what teams “should” do from using my research, and then attempt to predict what teams “will” do based on their tendencies and the marketplace. For example, last year I stated that the Panthers “should” pick CJ Stroud, yet I had their mock picking Bryce Young. A couple things of note, this might be the worst draft for both running backs and tight ends in some time. Here is how my predictions all lay out. For our position totals in the first round, we have 6 quarterbacks, 0 running backs, 1 tight end, 6 wide receivers, 7 offensive lineman, 6 defensive line/edge, 0 Inside Linebacker, 5 Cornerbacks, and 1 Safety. We have 20 offensive players and 12 on defense. Let the games begin!
Best Bets: Total defensive players selected over 10.5 -175 –
JJ McCarthy Over 5.5 +120 – 1 star, (long shot Brock Bowers to Jacksonville +10000 – .2 stars)
ROUND 1
1. Chicago Bears
Who they should pick: Caleb Williams, but I do think that there is a sliver of chance that they could get offered a haul from the Commanders to trade down to the two spot and Ryan Poles could possibly bite due to Caleb’s off the field antics. Should they do this? Well, it depends on how much they get. Everyone has a price, but Caleb is my number 1 guy.
Mock Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC. Caleb Williams has proven the most and deserves to be the top pick of the draft.
2. Washington Commanders
Who they should pick: Jayden Daniels. I know that he is being compared to Justin Fields, but he looks like a more of an accurate Lamar Jackson to me. The kid can throw the seam routs and he has some extreme NFL speed. My only issue is that his frame is a bit small for the NFL.
Mock Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. Also a no brainer. I know there are issues with Jayden Daniel’s agent putting it out on twitter that he is perplexed by Washington wanting to meet with all quarterbacks at once rather than spending quality one on one time with each. I do think that these issues get fixed. The consensus should be correct. Williams 1 and Daniels 2 is how it goes.
3. New England Patriots
Who they should pick: Trade down to take Michael Penix. I do not like how Drake Maye finished his college career. Another big red flag is the fact that he was in the ACC while only amassing 1 win vs ranked teams over the past two years.
Mock pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. I don’t see the Patriots trading back, even if they have needs at several other positions. Taking Maye secures their future at the NFL’s most important position.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Who they should pick: The Cardinals are looking for the next Larry Fitzgerald, and nobody better than Marvin Harrison JR. This kid has the best demeanor, size, speed, athletic ability, and competitive spirit making him the best player in this drat class.
Mock pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. The Cardinals could trade down, but I think that teams will not want to give up a ton for the 4th quarterback picked in this draft class. Arizona likes Marvin so much that they will hold steady.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Who they should pick: Jim Harbaugh is a genius coach who knows how to build a football team. No way that he crumbles under any media pressure to draft a wide receiver at this position. I also hear rumors that the Vikings will give up their left nut to trade up for JJ McCarthy. This would be a massive mistake being that they do not pick again until the fourth round.
Mock pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. I think that Jim will draft the best OT in this draft class and get his Michigan guys later being that they are not ranked all that high.
6. New York Giants
Who they should pick: The Giants are a mess. They screwed up by paying a backup type quarterback in Danny Dimes a boat load of money to be a starter. Since he is locked up until 2026, I think that the Giants should trade down and draft a corner.
Mock pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. When in Rome, you act like the Romans. Well, this team lost their RB Saquon Barkley and they will want a play maker. I think Slayton is done, so they will go with Rome from Washington. The reason they won’t go with Malik Nabers is that they already have that speedy profile WR in Jalin Hyatt. Odunze is taller and can fight for the ball.
7. Tennessee Titans
Who they should pick: If Titans GM Ron Carthon was smart, he would either A, trade down and draft offensive line, or B, trade Will Levis and draft a good quarterback like Penix or Nix. I have to assume that he makes the wrong decision like most executives and stays with Will Levis.
Mock pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama. The Titans will most likely go with an offensive lineman because they think that they can protect Levis. JC Latham is the next man in most of the rankings. I don’t mind the pick at all, but at the same time, Will Levis isn’t the answer at quarterback.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Who they should pick: The Falcons did a ton to bolster their team including the QB position in Kirk Cousins. The next most logical move is to get to the quarterback? NO. Get an edge rusher. Atlanta is switching back to a 3-4 defense so I think that Dallas Turner or Jared Verse is the most logical fit.
Mock pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama. Atlanta is trying to fool everyone by saying they might take a quarterback. Looking at the GMs these days, I wouldn’t be that shocked if it works. Obviously they really want their top guy on D to fall past the Chargers and the Giants. Dallas Turner would be a great pick for the Falcons. Turner amassed 53 tackles, 11 sacks, 15.5 tackles for a loss with two forced fumbles in 2023. He is a gifted pass rusher off the edge as illustrated with his amazing 40 time of 4.46. Turner can also drop back in coverage.
9. Chicago Bears
Who they should pick: The Bears were only 25th in team sacks per game. They did add Montez Sweat who I would call just an average pass rusher yet a great run stopper. The Bears should trade down, but I would also like to go with edge rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA who is a 6’4 pass rushing beast with 13 sacks last year at UCLA.
Mock pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU This team picked up Keenan Allen on a one year deal, but they did lose Darnell Mooney to free agency. I could see them going WR here to pair back up with Caleb, but I do not love it.
10. New York Jets
Who they should pick: Even without Arron Rogers dramatic injury, this team’s offensive line completely sucked. They did add a few guys in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but it isn’t enough for the prima donna that they had signed last year. Got to go with Troy Fautanu from Washington.
Mock pick: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington. Like a glove! Some say Brock Bowers, but I am saying that this team can’t afford another Rogers injury and the GM can’t afford to be the blame for it. Fautanu is versatile and can play the Tackle or the Guard position. He has the size and speed to pull on run plays as well as the feet and strength to pass block on the edge.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Who they should pick: This is getting repetitive, but Michael Penix is the perfect fit for this system. Penix is a great pocket quarterback who can connect with guys like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Mock pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. Forest Gump says, stupid is what stupid does. This team will pick JJ McCarthy and throw him into the wolves as soon as Sam Darnold throws an interception.
12. Denver Broncos
Who they should pick: I don’t know if this team could stomach another year without a quarterback. Yes, their defense was terrible for the first seven or eight games, but now without Wilson, they need some hope. Grab Bo Nix. He feels more like the Sean Payton fit of being a pocket quarterback with some scrambling ability.
Mock pick: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: I think that Sean Payton doesn’t risk his guy going to the Raiders or the Saints. Bo threw for an amazing 4,508 yards over 14 games with 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He also ran for six TDs and 234 yards. this man could be the next Drew Breese with legs.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Who they should pick: The Raiders can’t seriously think that they have a quarterback in Gardner Minshew right? Michael Penix is just sitting there.
Mock Pick: Michael Penix, QB, Washington. The Raiders get it right with Michael Penix. This quarterback immediately makes guys like Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer much more relevant. Michael had mad passing numbers at number one in total yards at 4903 with 36 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
14. New Orleans Saints
Who they should pick: The defense needs some love being that they ranked fourth worst in sacks per game. This is against a weak NFC South. Draft Jared Verse from Florida State. He is a beast and can be very explosive in the next level.
Mock pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State. It must absolutely suck to be stuck with Derek Carr, but I guess you might as well try to keep him upright this year. The tea leaves say they go offensive line and Fashanu is the next man up. This guy can jump out of a building with his 32 inch vertical.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Who they should pick: The Texans have gotten some good receivers, so I assume they Colts have to go defense at some point. Why not the best corner in the draft in Quinyon Mitchell?
Mock pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo. Quinyon was a man amongst boys at Toledo. He also had a spectacular combine running a 4.33 forty. In 2022 as a junior Mitchell played in 13 games. He had 31 tackles, 2 assists, and added 14 stops. In the secondary Mitchell forced 16 pass breakups, 5 interceptions, and gave up an elite QB rating when targeted of just 32.4. His senior year was just as impressive. Quinyon has the instincts to be a Sauce Gardner type impact player.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Who they should pick: Seattle’s rush defense was trash last year. Having to face the run heavy 49ers, Rams and Cardinals, this team needs to fix their three technique. Draft Byron Murphy from Texas. I saw him run down a running back at full speed last year in the playoffs. Byron is the best in the bunch.
Mock pick: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas. Seattle had the second worst rush defense in the NFL. Murphy had the second highest vertical in the combine for defensive Tackles. In 2023, he recorded 29 tackles and five sacks for the Longhorns.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Who they should pick: WR Calvin Ridley is gone, but this team signed Gabriel Davis and Devon Duvernay in free agency. Jacksonville was trash against the pass last year yet they at least signed Arik Armstead from the 49ers to bolster that edge. This team should draft my next best corner in Nate Wiggins from Clemson.
Mock pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. Maybe it’s just that Brock Bowers is so good that he makes the rest of them look deficient, but I do not have a 1st or 2nd round grade on any other tight end in this draft. The Jaguars won’t be able to help themselves seeing that the best tight end over the past three years is still available. I am ok with it, yet I still would rather get the corner.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Who they should pick: Cincinnati needs a lot, but they lost RT Jonah Williams to free agency. I am ok with cornerback or offensive tackle right here.
Mock pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State. I think that the Bengals get it right here. Fuaga is a low risk pick that can run block with the best of them. Anything protecting Joe Burrow isn’t a bad play in my opinion.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Who they should pick: Trade down, but if not, the Rams need to replace Aaron Donald, and this team FINALLY has a first round pick. I am ok with any defensive line or secondary here.
Mock pick: Kris Jenkins, DE, Michigan. Many say they will go 3-4 edge like a Jared Verse, but I think that they get their Aaron Donald. The Rams are getting a proven winner here. Kris Jenkins fits the Aaron Donald profile with this size and strength. The run game will be huge in this division, so the Rams will try and once again clog up those trenches.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Who they should pick: Ok, I’ll stop saying trade down, but this team needs more offensive line help. Take Graham Barton or Amarius Mims from Georgia.
Mock pick: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas. I could see the Steelers making a bad choice here after trading Deonte Johnson. Worthy is a speedster with that 4.21 forty record at the combine, but the guy is 165lbs soak and wet. Hope he doesn’t take a big hit.
21. Miami Dolphins
Who they should pick: The Fins lost a bunch of talent in free agency. They could go best player here. I suppose defensive end needs some depth and Jared Verse is a beast.
Mock pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State. I think that Verse will be a bit of a project. He is a little raw when it comes to coverage, but in this division he has to help stop guys like Josh Allen and Aaron Rogers.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Who they should pick: The Eagles traded Hassan Reddick and signed Bryce Huff. There are a few directions that this team could go, but I think that they need to work on that defense that completely crapped the bed in the last half of the season. Go with a corner.
Mock pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. Wiggens is the next best corner in this draft, and this would be a perfect fit if the Eagles do not screw this up.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Who they should pick: They will probably try to trade down to get more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round, but for the time being, Minnesota needs secondary since they got Greenard and Van Ginkle in free agency.
Mock Pick pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama. Terrion is the next ranked cornerback in this draft. He had some nice numbers last year with 61 tackles, five interceptions and 11 passes broken up. The big knock against him is that his forty didn’t go well in the combine at 4.5 seconds, so I think that he hurt his chances as the first cornerback off of the board.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Who they should pick: So weird to see the Cowboys with zero running backs. There is no Bijan Robinson in this draft, so I think Dallas goes offensive line here to make up for losing Tyron Smith.
Mock pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. If someone restrains Jerry Jones from making dumb decisions, this pick should work out wonderful. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses in the playoffs.
25. Green Bay Packers
Who they should pick: The Packers need secondary, linebacker and offensive line help. I say go with OT Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma. The man is huge and will be able to stop the majority of the edge rushers in the next level.
Mock pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama. I think that the Packers go corner here. They got burned in the slot against teams like Detroit and San Francisco. Kool-Aid not only can play corner, he is also a dangerous punt returner.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who they should pick: I am not going to overcomplicate this. Tampa lost Shaq Barrett and will need to rush the quarterback.
Mock pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State. The next guy up is Chop Robinson who was the best edge rusher on a great Penn State defense before he got hurt. Chop is fast with 4.48 forty speed. Perfect fit for the 3-4 defense.
27. Arizona Cardinals
Who they should pick: Arizona still wants a stud edge rusher and they see Darius Robinson sitting there. Robinson fits the Gannon 4-3 scheme perfectly with his 290 LB frame and his 6’5 height.
Mock pick: Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri. This is a no-brainer to me. Darius looks the part with his huge size and amazing athletic ability. His Senior season amassed 36 total pressures including 22 QB hurries, 6 QB hits, and an impressive 8 sacks.
28. Buffalo Bills
Who they should pick: This team screwed me over last year when I said they needed the best linebacker in the draft. Instead they went tight end. Buffalo greatly paid for it later in the season when the injury bug set it. This team should trade down, but I could see them going WR. Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis are both gone and it is what it is.
Mock pick: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU. Is it possible that LSU’s receivers are what made Jayden Daniels look so darn good? Thomas edges out Adonai Mitchell in most rankings. At 6’3, 209 lbs with a 4.33 forty, he is very fast, tall at versatile.
29. Detroit Lions
Who they should pick: The Lions once again were straight trash against the pass. They signed another edge rusher in Marcus Davenport, so I think that they go secondary.
Mock: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa. A perfect Dan Campbell kind of guy. Versatility is key here as DeJean could easily convert into safety as well as play slot corner. This kid may not look the part, but he certainly can play the part on defense.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Who they should pick: The Ravens continue to feel the effects of not winning a super bowl when the quarterback was on a rookie contract. This team lost a bunch to free agency including S Geno Stone and CB Ronald Darby. This team needs pretty much everything.
Mock pick: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia. I think that Baltimore throws us a curve ball here and drafts a safety earlier than the market predicts. If too small at free safety, Bullard can also play cornerback where he also has some experience. Rarely a bad move to draft a top guy that played for Georgia.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Who they should pick: If not trading down, the 49ers have a blessing of riches, yet if they do need to fill some gaps, it is in offensive and the defensive line losing Javon Kinlaw, Chase Young, Arik Armstead and Sebastian Joseph.
Mock pick: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona. San Francisco needs depth in their offensive line. The tea leaves are saying Jordan Morgan. This massive kid was a huge reason for the Wildcats offensive success in 2023. I like the pick.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Who they should pick: The Chiefs need to replace L’Jarius Sneed who was their best pass defender on defense. Now that Rashee Rice is in trouble, I could see them getting a top WR.
Mock pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. Ranked as the 4th best wide receiver in many draft boards, this kid as size at 6’2, and speed at a 4.34 forty that translates well into the NFL.
