The U.S. Open Championship Preview & Picks

June 15, 2021

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What a tournament this should be… We have the 121st U.S. Open returning to the South Course at Torrey Pines. This course was last used for the U.S. Open back in 2008, when Tiger took down Rocco Mediate in a playoff.

This course is extremely long, which pretty much eliminates half the field right there. Driving Distance is a key stat that must be taken into account for this tournament. Only four winners in the last 17 years have ranked higher in Driving Accuracy than Driving Distance. Yes, the U.S. Open is known for having tight fairways and punishing rough. However, the added distance will allow these players to hit shorter irons into these greens which brings up another key stat, SG: Approach. These greens were overhauled with Bentgrass back in 2001 when the course went through an overhaul getting prepared for the 2008 US Open. The native Poa Annua however, has taken over these greens and they’re now listed as “Bentgrass with Poa Annua.” The greens at Torrey Pines South are slightly smaller than the tour average, but most have been moved closer to hazards and recontoured during that renovation. To win this tournament without having a long ball off the tee, you need to have a great long iron game or be able to scramble and putt lights out which only a handful of players do. When looking at this field, the list of competitors isn’t a long one. This isn’t a long shot tournament; the big names usually win this due to the USGA’s ability to configure a course that exposes inexperience by challenging all aspects of players’ games. Jon Rahm enters this tournament as the betting favorite after being pulled off the 18th hole at the Memorial with a 6 stroke lead headed into Sunday. He’s now tested negative for Covid-19 and is deservedly so the betting favorite (10-1) as this course suits his playing style well.

Tournament Information:

Dates: June 17, 2021- June 20, 2021
Location: La Jolla, California, USA
Course: Torrey Pines South
Par: 71
Length: 7,652 yards
Field/ Cut: 156 Players / Top 60 & Ties Make the Cut
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Par 4’s: 450-500 yards
Driving Distance
Putting Birdie or Better %
Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast Poa)

Picks (Outright):

Xander Schauffele (+2,000)
- Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
  - 22nd in SG: Approach
  - 18th in SG: Tee to Green
  - T26 in Driving Distance
  - 3rd in Putting: Birdie or Better %
Rory McIlroy (+2,000)
- Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
  - 2nd in Driving Distance
  - T9 in Driving Distance
  - 16th in SG: Tee to Green
  - 15th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
Collin Morikawa (+2,500)
- Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  - 1st in SG: Approach
  - 1st in SG: Tee to Green
  - 1st in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
  - 4th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
Justin Thomas (+2,500)
- Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  - 2nd in SG: Approach
  - 2nd in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  - 5th in SG: Tee to Green
  - 17th in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
Jason Kokrak (+6,600)
- Risk: 0.12 to win 7.92 Units
  - 22nd in SG: Off the Tee
  - 19th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  - 22nd in Driving Distance
  - T24th in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
Viktor Hovland (+2,800)
- Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  - 5th in SG: Off the Tee
  - 8th in SG: Tee to Green
  - 8th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  - 21st in SG: Approach

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.85 Units

Picks (First Round Leader):

Charley Hoffman (+8,000)
- Risk: 0.05 to win 4.00 Units
  - 5th in SG: Approach
  - 17th in SG: Tee to Green
  - 21st in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
  - T26 in Driving Distance
Matthew Wolff (+10,000)
- Risk 0.05 to win 5.0 Units
  - 7th in Driving Distance
  - 19th in SG: Around the Green
  - Wolff finished 2nd in the 2020 US Open behind Bryson, he’s not playing great golf as of late but at +10,000 FRL he’s worth a sprinkle