Before I get into this a quick introduction. My name is Andrew Clarke and I am new around here you can follow me on X @n0t_an_athlete. I am new to writing about betting but, I bet a lot of college football games. I love college football, I think it is the best sport in the world. There is nothing more fun then putting a little money on the line and watching some games on a Saturday in the fall.
I got 4 bets I am making this Thursday Night for the Saturday slate. A Good Team, a good team playing a bad team, fading a bad team, and an ugly underdog. I will list the best number out there out there as of the time I am writing this, be sure to shop around and find the best number.
- Good Team: Texas Tech (-11) @ Houston. This line has been moving so you can wait and possibly get a better number closer to kick. Texas Tech is coming in hot 14 days after taking it to Utah in Salt Lake City. I can see this game playing out similarly as Houston does have the defense to hang for a little while but, I do not see how Houston’s offense keeps it within the number. Houston’s O-line has shown some lackluster performances pass blocking and that is exactly where this very expensive Tech defensive line thrives. Look for Tech to be able to rush 4 all day and keep Conner Weigman in check. On the other side of the ball Tech’s Behren Moroton will get the start despite Will Hammond looking like the guy. In this matchup he should be ok because according to PFF ratings Morton is most effective against the zone and that is Houston’s primary coverage scheme.
- Good Team vs Bad Team: Penn State (-24.5)@UCLA. Unlike Penn State UCLA covered their first spread of the season last week in the Big 10 cellar dwellers bowl against Northwestern. This might be the closest game UCLA plays for the rest season as James Franklin is 9-4 ATS after taking a loss to a top 10 team. UCLA had the fired coach bump last week but, I am not going to give them a fired Offensive coordinator bump after they fired theirs only four games into his UCLA career. I think that move evidences this program is completely dysfunctional and they have no identity. UCLA’s offense is completely centered around Nico Iamaleaava rather it be through the air or as their primary rusher so if Penn State shuts him down they really have no other offense. I am going to give the Nittany Lions one last chance this season to cover a big number in what should be a get right game for the offense.
- Fading a bad team: Western Michigan (-13.5) @ UMASS. There is not a lot of 13.5 left out there so scoop them up before they are gone. This handicap is simple UMASS might possibly be the worst team in the FBS and might have a hard time staying within any number this season. Western Michigan does not have an offense that will light the world on fire but UMASS is struggling to put a defense on the field as their defensive back field has been decimated by injuries. I had to check Sagarin rating on this one and UMASS is coming in at 207. I think I saw a few local high school teams rated higher. Western Michigan has a solid defense and should have no problem keeping UMASS to their usual low offensive output in UMASS’s first MAC conference game. Welcome to the wacky MAC Minutemen.
- Ugly Dog: Kentucky (+21) @ Georgia. I do not love it but, I am tired of missing out on the trend. Kirby Smart as the head coach of UGA does not cover big spreads certainly not in conference. UGA has not covered a 20 point spread in the SEC since 2022 and Kirby since the beginning of 2023 he is 9-22-1. Kentucky always seems to give Kirby fits and he should be looking to coast here and maybe reel off a 27-10 victory so that I do not have to sweat to much.
- If you love my bets or hate them and want to chat about college football get at me on X.
