For an in-depth breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, be sure to check out our latest podcast episode, where we take a full deep dive into the Run for the Roses.
The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 2nd.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the first Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.
Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.
It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.
With that said, let’s break down the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby and try to find a winner!
Race Information:
- Date: May 2nd, 2026
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
- Event Grade: Grade I
- Race: 12
- Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
- Length: 1 1/4 Mile
- Purse: $5,000,000
- Division: Open | Three Years Old
- Surface: Dirt
- Wagers: Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14), Super Hi-5, Odd Vs Even, Jackpot 8, Matchup (1, 6, 18 Vs Field (2-5, 7-17, 19-24))
TV Schedule:
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
Weather:
Previous Winners & Odds:
- 2025: Sovereignty
- Odds: 7-1
- 2024: Mystic Dan
- Odds: 20-1
- 2023: Mage
- Odds: 15-1
- 2022: Rich Strike *
- Odds: 80-1
- 2021: Mandaloun **
- Odds: 15-1
- 2020: Authentic
- Odds: 8-1
- 2019: Country House ***
- Odds: 65-1
- 2018: Justify
- Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.
** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.
*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
- Most Wins by a Trainer:
- 6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- 6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
- Most Wins by a Jockey:
- 5, Eddie Arcaro (1938, 1941, 1945, 1948, 1952)
- 5, Bill Hartack (1957, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969)
- Most Wins by an Owner:
- 8, Calumet Farm (1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952, 1957, 1958, 1968)
Kentucky Derby Historical Post Position Stats:
The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.
| Post Position | Wins |
| 1 | (8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937) |
| 2 | (7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946) |
| 3 | (6) Mystic Dan (2024); Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942) |
| 4 | (5) Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941) |
| 5 | (10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931) |
| 6 | (2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957) |
| 7 | (8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930) |
| 8 | (8) Mage (2023); Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934) |
| 9 | (4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951) |
| 10 | (9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935) |
| 11 | (2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933) |
| 12 | (3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945) |
| 13 | (4) Nyquist (2016); Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932) |
| 14 | (2) Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950) |
| 15 | (6) Authentic (2020); American Pharoah (2015); Orb (2013); Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984) |
| 16 | (4) Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995) |
| 17 | (0) |
| 18 | (3) Sovereignty (2025); Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982) |
| 19 | (1) I’ll Have Another (2012) |
| 20 | (2) Rich Strike (2022); Big Brown (2008) |
Field:
| Post Position | Horse | Morning Line (ML) Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Renegade | 9-2 | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Todd Pletcher |
| 2 | Albus | 40-1 | Manny Franco | Riley Mott |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | Hector Berrios | Jeff Mullins |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 30-1 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | Luis Saez | Brad Cox |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 50-1 | Atsuya Nishimura | Manabu Ikezoe |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | Mike Smith | Mark Glatt |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 25-1 | Ryusei Sakai | Daisuke Takayanagi |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 25-1 | Jaime A. Torres | Riley Mott |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 10-1 | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott |
| 14 | Potenete | 15-1 | Juan Hernandez | Bob Baffert |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 20-1 | Flavien Prat | Chad Brown |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 40-1 | Edwin Maldonado | Doug O’Neill |
| 17 | Six Speed | 40-1 | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Bhupat Seemar |
| 18 | Further Ado | 5-1 | John Velazquez | Brad Cox |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | Jose Ortiz | Cherie DeVaux |
| 21 | Great White | 50-1 | Alex Achard | John Ennis |
| 22 | Ocelli | 50-1 | Joseph D. Ramos | D. Whitworth Beckman |
| 23 | Robusta | 50-1 | Emisael Jaramillo | Doug O’Neill |
Horse Preview:
# 1 Renegade
| ML Odds | 4-1 |
| Owner(s) | Repole Stable; Robert E. & Lawana L. Low |
| Trainer | Todd Pletcher |
| Jockey | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| Dam | Spice Is Nice (Curlin) |
| Sire | Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Oaklawn | 1 1/8 mi | Arkansas Derby (G1) | 1st |
| 2/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | Sam F. Davis | 1st |
| 12/6/25 | Aqueduct | 1 1/8 mi | Remsen (G2) | 2nd |
# 2 Albus
| ML Odds | 30-1 |
| Owner(s) | Pin Oak Stud LLC |
| Trainer | Riley Mott |
| Jockey | Manny Franco |
| Dam | Adream (Bernardini) |
| Sire | Yaupon (Uncle Mo) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Aqueduct | 1 1/8 mi | Wood Memorial (G2) | 1st |
| 2/27/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | MSW | 1st |
| 11/29/25 | Churchill Downs | 1 1/16 mi | MSW | 3rd |
# 3 Intrepido
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | Dutch Girl Holdings LLC & Irving Ventures |
| Trainer | Jeff Mullins |
| Jockey | Hector Berrios |
| Dam | Overly Indulgent (Pleasantly Perfect) |
| Sire | Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/8 mi | SA Derby (G1) | 4th |
| 2/7/26 | Santa Anita | 1 mi | R. B. Lewis (G3) | 2nd |
| 10/31/25 | Del Mar | 1 1/16 mi | BC Juvenile (G1) | 5th |
# 4 Litmus Test
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | |
| Trainer | Bob Baffert |
| Jockey | Martin Garcia |
| Dam | Study Hard (Malibu Moon) |
| Sire | Nyquist (Uncle Mo) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Oaklawn | 1 1/8 mi | Arkansas Derby (G1) | 7th |
| 3/1/26 | Oaklawn | 1 1/16 mi | Rebel (G2) | 3rd |
| 12/13/25 | Los Alamitos | 1 1/16 mi | Los Al Futurity (G2) | 1st |
# 6 Commandment
| ML Odds | 6-1 |
| Owner(s) | Wathnan Racing |
| Trainer | Brad Cox |
| Jockey | Luis Saez |
| Dam | Sippican Harbor (Orb) |
| Sire | Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/8 mi | Florida Derby (G1) | 1st |
| 2/28/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/16 mi | Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st |
| 1/3/26 | Gulfstream | 1 mi | Mucho Macho Man Stakes | 1st |
# 7 Danon Bourbon
| ML Odds | 20-1 |
| Owner(s) | Danox Co. Ltd |
| Trainer | Manabu Ikezoe |
| Jockey | Atsuya Nishimura |
| Dam | Wild Ridge (Tapit) |
| Sire | Maxfield (Street Sense) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Nakayama | 1 1/8 mi | Fukuryu Stakes | 1st |
| 2/15/26 | Kyoto | 1 1/4 mi | Allowance | 1st |
| 10/26/25 | Kyoto | 1 1/8 mi | Maiden | 1st |
# 8 So Happy
| ML Odds | 15-1 |
| Owner(s) | Saints or Sinners; Norman Stables |
| Trainer | Mark Glatt |
| Jockey | Mike Smith |
| Dam | So Cunning (Blame) |
| Sire | Runhappy (Super Saver |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/8 mi | SA Derby (G1) | 1st |
| 3/7/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | San Felipe (G2) | 3rd |
| 1/10/26 | Santa Anita | 7f | San Vicente (G2) | 1st |
# 9 The Puma
| ML Odds | 10-1 |
| Owner(s) | OGMA Investments LLC et al. |
| Trainer | Gustavo Delgado |
| Jockey | Javier Castellano |
| Dam | Eve of War (Declaration of War) |
| Sire | Essential Quality (Tapit) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/8 mi | Florida Derby (G1) | 2nd |
| 3/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | Tampa Bay Derby (G3) | 1st |
| 2/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | Sam F. Davis | 3rd |
# 10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
| ML Odds | 30-1 |
| Owner(s) | Yoshinari Yamamoto |
| Trainer | Daisuke Takayanagi |
| Jockey | Ryusei Sakai |
| Dam | Wonder Siang Praw |
| Sire | Dee Majesty |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Meydan (UAE) | 1 3/16 mi | UAE Derby (G2) | 1st |
| 2/14/26 | Riyadh (KSA) | 1 mi | Saudi Derby (G3) | 4th |
| 12/20/25 | Hanshin (JPN) | 1 1/8 mi | Poinsettia Stakes | 2nd |
# 11 Incredibolt
| ML Odds | 20-1 |
| Owner(s) | Pin Oak Stud LLC |
| Trainer | Riley Mott |
| Jockey | Jaime A. Torres |
| Dam | Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again) |
| Sire | Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/14/26 | Colonial | 1 1/8 mi | Virginia Derby | 1st |
| 1/31/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/16 mi | Holy Bull (G3) | 6th |
| 10/26/25 | Churchill Downs | 1 1/16 mi | Street Sense (G3) | 1st |
# 12 Chief Wallabee
| ML Odds | 8-1 |
| Owner(s) | Michael & Katherine Ball |
| Trainer | Bill Mott |
| Jockey | Junior Alvarado |
| Dam | A La Lucie (Medaglia d’Oro) |
| Sire | Constitution (Tapit) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/8 mi | Florida Derby (G1) | 3rd |
| 2/28/26 | Gulfstream | 1 1/16 mi | Fountain of Youth (G2) | 2nd |
| 1/10/26 | Gulfstream | 7f | MSW | 1st |
# 14 Potente
| ML Odds | 20-1 |
| Owner(s) | Speedway Stables LLC |
| Trainer | Bob Baffert |
| Jockey | Juan Hernandez |
| Dam | Sweet Sting (Awesome Again) |
| Sire | Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/8 mi | SA Derby (G1) | 2nd |
| 3/7/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | San Felipe (G2) | 1st |
| 1/31/26 | Santa Anita | 6f | MSW | 1st |
# 15 Emerging Market
| ML Odds | 15-1 |
| Owner(s) | Klaravich Stables |
| Trainer | Chad Brown |
| Jockey | Flavien Prat |
| Dam | Wild Empress (Empire Maker) |
| Sire | Candy Ride*Arg (Ride the Rails) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/21/26 | Fair Grounds | 1 3/16 mi | Louisiana Derby (G2) | 1st |
| 2/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | MSW | 1st |
# 16 Pavlovian
| ML Odds | 30-1 |
| Owner(s) | Reddam Racing LLC |
| Trainer | Doug O’Neill |
| Jockey | Edwin Maldonado |
| Dam | Mandy’s Grace (Bellamy Road) |
| Sire | Pavel (Creative Cause) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/21/26 | Fair Grounds | 1 3/16 mi | Louisiana Derby (G2) | 2nd |
| 2/15/26 | Sunland | 1 1/16 mi | Sunland Derby | 1st |
| 2/17/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | Cal Cup Derby | 3rd |
# 17 Six Speed
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | Brunetti Dugan Stables et al. |
| Trainer | Bhupat Seemar |
| Jockey | Brian Hernandez Jr. |
| Dam | Browse (Medaglia d’Oro) |
| Sire | Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/26 | Meydan | 1 3/16 mi | UAE Derby (G2) | 2nd |
| 2/23/26 | Meydan | 1 mi | UAE 2000 Guineas (Gr. 3) | 1st |
| 2/2/26 | Meydan | 7f | Conditions | 1st |
# 18 Further Ado
| ML Odds | 6-1 |
| Owner(s) | Spendthrift Farm LLC |
| Trainer | Brad Cox |
| Jockey | John Velazquez |
| Dam | Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa) |
| Sire | Gun Runner (Candy Ride*Arg) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Keeneland | 1 1/8 mi | Blue Grass (G1) | 1st |
| 3/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | Tampa Bay Derby (G3) | 2nd |
| 11/29/25 | Churchill Downs | 1 1/16 mi | KY Jockey Club (G2) | 1st |
# 19 Golden Tempo
| ML Odds | 30-1 |
| Owner(s) | Phipps Stable; St. Elias Stable |
| Trainer | Cherie DeVaux |
| Jockey | Jose Ortiz |
| Dam | Carrumba (Bernardini) |
| Sire | Curlin (Smart Strike) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/21/26 | Fair Grounds | 1 3/16 mi | Louisiana Derby (G2) | 3rd |
| 2/14/26 | Fair Grounds | 1 1/8 mi | Risen Star (G2) | 3rd |
| 1/17/26 | Fair Grounds | 1 1/16 mi | LeComte Stakes (G3) | 1st |
# 21 Great White
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | Three Chimneys Farm LLC; John Ennis |
| Trainer | John Ennis |
| Jockey | Alex Achard |
| Dam | Kelly Bag (Uncle Mo) |
| Sire | Volatile (Violence) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Keeneland | 1 1/8 mi | Blue Grass (G1) | 5th |
| 2/21/26 | Turfway Park | 1 1/16 mi | John Battaglia Memorial | 1st |
| 1/17/26 | Turfway Park | 1 mi | Leonatus | 5th |
# 22 Ocelli
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | Ashley Durr; Anthony Tate; Front Page |
| Trainer | D. Whitworth Beckman |
| Jockey | J. D. Ramos |
| Dam | Zalia (Scat Daddy) |
| Sire | Connect (Curlin) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Churchill Downs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Aqueduct | 1 1/8 mi | Wood Memorial (G2) | 3rd |
| 3/14/26 | Colonial | 1 1/8 mi | Virginia Derby | 6th |
| 2/7/26 | Tampa | 1 1/16 mi | Sam F. Davis | 6th |
# 23 Robusta
| ML Odds | 50-1 |
| Owner(s) | Calumet Farm |
| Trainer | Doug O’Neill |
| Jockey | Emisael Jaramillo |
| Dam | Urbane Legend (Into Mischief) |
| Sire | Accelerate (lookin At Lucky) |
Record
| Category | Starts | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Churchill Downs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Races
| Date | Track | Length | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/8 mi | SA Derby (G1) | 7th |
| 3/7/26 | Santa Anita | 1 1/16 mi | San Felipe (G2) | 2nd |
| 2/7/26 | Santa Anita | 1 mi | R. B. Lewis (G3) | 6th |
Projected Pace:
Pacesetter
- #4 Litmus Test
- #7 Danon Bourbon
- #14 Potenete
- #16 Pavlovian
- #17 Six Speed
- #23 Robusta
Stalker
- #2 Albus
- #3 Intrepido
- #6 Commandment
- #8 So Happy
- #9 The Puma
- #10 Wonder Dean
- #11 Incredibolt
- #12 Chief Wallabee
- #15 Emerging Market
- #18 Further Ado
Closers
- #1 Renegade
#13 Silent Tactic#20 Fulleffort- #21 Great White
Deep Closers
#5 Right to Party- #19 Golden Tempo
- #22 Ocelli
Tosses
These are the horses I’m excluding from my bets. I don’t view them as serious contenders for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, and I don’t believe they have a realistic chance to hit the board given the depth of this field.
# 2 Albus
Albus is coming off a win in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, but that field lacked strength compared to other prep races. The Wood Memorial has also been a poor indicator of Derby success, with no winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby since 2000. While he has shown some versatility, he appears to lack the necessary speed and would need a significant jump forward to contend here.
# 3 Intrepido
Intrepido won the G1 American Pharaoh Stakes as a two-year-old and looked like an early Derby favorite. However, he has not progressed as expected this season. He finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, where he was beaten decisively. His speed figures have plateaued, and the competition he has faced in California has not been particularly strong. Overall, he has not lived up to expectations.
# 4 Litmus Test
One of two entrants from Bob Baffert, Litmus Test has not shown the same promise as his stablemate. He flashed potential as a two-year-old but has regressed this season, finishing seventh in the Arkansas Derby. His last win came in 2025 at the Los Alamitos Futurity. Blinkers are being added, but that move has not historically translated to success in the Derby, making him difficult to trust.
# 10 Wonder Dean
Wonder Dean enters off a victory in the G2 UAE Derby, where he defeated fellow entrant Six Speed by two and a half lengths. He is one of two Japanese runners in the field, alongside Dannon Bourbon, who appears to be the more accomplished of the pair.
Unlike many international entrants, Wonder Dean has experience racing outside of Japan, which is a positive, and he showed the ability to handle the distance in his most recent start. That said, there were some concerns late in that race, as he appeared to tire down the stretch.
# 16 Pavlovian
Pavlovian enters this race as the most experienced three-year-old in the field, with 10 career starts. He is coming off a strong effort in the Louisiana Derby, where he finished just a head behind Emerging Market while beating Golden Tempo. That performance produced a career-best Beyer Speed Figure, suggesting he may be trending in the right direction.
However, there are still concerns with how this race sets up for him. In his last two starts, with Edwin Maldonado aboard, he has been ridden more aggressively and placed on or near the lead. While that approach worked in those spots, it is difficult to see it translating here.
This field is deeper and features significantly more early speed. Pavlovian may struggle to keep up with the pace early, and even if he does, it is unlikely he will have enough left late to hold his position.
# 17 Six Speed
Six Speed projects to go straight to the front and try to wire the field, but that strategy is difficult to execute successfully in a race like this. He is coming off a runner-up finish in the UAE Derby, but historically, horses exiting that race have struggled in the Kentucky Derby, going winless in recent decades. The pace scenario also works against him.
# 21 Great White
Great White is a synthetic-track specialist who draws into the field following a scratch. Trained by John Ennis and ridden by Alex Achard, he won the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park with an 84 Beyer-equivalent effort, but struggled badly when stepping up in the Blue Grass Stakes, fading to fifth with a 72 Beyer.
His early speed profile could put him in the mix early, but his lack of success on dirt and significant regression against graded stakes company are major red flags. At the Derby’s 1 1/4 mile distance, he appears overmatched unless there is dramatic improvement.
# 22 Ocelli
Ocelli enters off a consistent but unspectacular prep campaign, still searching for a breakthrough win at the graded level. He finished third in the Wood Memorial behind Albus and Right to Party with a Beyer in the low 80s, and prior efforts at Fair Grounds show similar mid-to-high 70s figures with late rallies that fall just short.
Trained by a lower-profile barn and typically ridden by a rotation of jockeys, Ocelli has shown some closing ability at route distances around 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, but he lacks the acceleration and speed figures required to compete with top Derby contenders. His grinding style suggests the 1 1/4 mile distance could suit him, but he would need a complete pace collapse and a career-best effort to make an impact.
No maiden has won the Kentucky Derby since 1933, making this an extremely difficult profile to back.
# 23 Robusta
Robusta draws into the field following the scratch of Right to Party. He is coming off a seventh-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, where he was pushed to the front early but faded badly down the stretch, finishing well behind the winner, fellow entrant So Happy.
Prior to that, he showed some upside in the San Felipe Stakes, going off at 67 to 1 and finishing second, just a head behind fellow entrant Potente. That effort suggests there is some ability here, but his form overall has been inconsistent.
Robusta’s preferred running style is to go to the front and try to hold on, which is a difficult approach in a race like the Kentucky Derby. With several other horses possessing stronger early speed, it is hard to see him clearing the field or sustaining that pace against this level of competition.
Tiers
Here are the horses I think have a chance to win or hit the board in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. If you don’t see a horse in this section, check out the section above where I explain which horses I’m tossing.
Win Contenders
#6 Commandment
A top-tier contender, Commandment enters the Derby in peak form, having won four straight races, including all three starts this year. He captured both the Florida Derby (100 Beyer) and Fountain of Youth (101 Beyer), grinding out narrow victories against top competition in each.
In the Fountain of Youth, he edged fellow contender Chief Wallabee by a nose despite a less-than-ideal trip. He followed that up in the Florida Derby with another narrow win, this time over The Puma, with Chief Wallabee finishing just behind them again. Repeatedly beating the same quality group adds legitimacy to his form.
Any concerns about his familiarity with Churchill Downs can be put to rest. He broke his maiden at this track last November in dominant fashion, winning by more than five lengths.
From a pace perspective, Commandment should sit just off the early leaders, a perfect stalking position for the Derby. He has consistently shown he belongs at this class level, and his pedigree only strengthens his case. As a son of Into Mischief, a sire responsible for multiple Kentucky Derby winners, he is bred to handle both the distance and the stage.
#9 The Puma
The Puma has been one of the most consistent horses in this field and continues to knock on the door against top competition. He enters the Derby off a strong runner-up finish in the Florida Derby, earning a 100 Beyer, where he was narrowly defeated by Commandment. Prior to that, he delivered a decisive win in the Tampa Bay Derby, defeating Further Ado, with a 94 Beyer, showing both tactical speed and a strong finishing kick.
What stands out most is his ability to sit just off the pace and sustain a long drive through the stretch. In the Florida Derby, he made a sustained move and simply ran out of ground, suggesting the added distance of 1 1/4 miles could play to his advantage.
He has proven he belongs with the top tier of this crop, consistently running competitive speed figures while facing the same key rivals. If he gets a cleaner trip or slightly better timing in the stretch, he has every right to turn the tables on Commandment.
#12 Chief Wallabee
Chief Wallabee is a lightly raced colt who has done very little wrong in his career and continues to show steady progression. He exits back-to-back strong efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, earning Beyers of 100 and 99 while finishing just behind Commandment in both starts.
In the Fountain of Youth, he missed by a nose, and in the Florida Derby, he stayed on well to finish a close third in a tightly contested finish. Those efforts show both his competitiveness and ability to handle high-pressure situations against elite company.
His running style is ideal for the Derby, as he can settle mid-pack and produce a sustained run rather than relying on a quick burst. That kind of grinding finish often plays well at 1 1/4 miles, especially if the pace becomes demanding up front.
They are adding blinkers to him, which has historically led to success in the Derby, but after hearing a few interviews with his trainer and some media personalities, my concerns have eased.
#18 Further Ado
Further Ado brings one of the most visually impressive prep performances into the Derby, coming off a dominant win in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he posted a strong 106 Beyer, the best figure in the field.
In that race, he showed tactical speed to stay within striking range before pulling away convincingly in the stretch, suggesting both class and stamina. He has also proven himself over the Churchill Downs surface, winning last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
What makes Further Ado especially dangerous is that his running style fits this race perfectly. He will want to be close to the front, which should help him avoid traffic and set him up for a strong late kick. There is some concern, however, with him drawn near the #16 and #17, who are also expected to show early speed, so a clean break from the gate will be crucial.
John Velazquez picks up the mount for the first time after Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him in his last four starts. There is no concern with the switch, as Velazquez is a three-time winner of this race and remains one of the most skilled and intelligent tactical riders in the game.
#8 So Happy
So Happy enters off an impressive victory in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where he won by nearly three lengths and posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He has now won three of his four career starts and has shown steady improvement each time out.
That said, this will be a step up in class in the Kentucky Derby, and there are some questions about how he will handle the added distance based on his pedigree.
His expected running style, sitting just off the pace, has historically been effective in this race and should put him in a strong position turning for home. He is clearly a legitimate contender and was close to making the cut as a win bet. However, the combination of a tougher field and distance concerns makes him slightly harder to trust on top.
#15 Emerging Market
Emerging Market is one of the most intriguing horses in the field this year. Trained by Chad Brown, he remains unbeaten in two career starts and continues to bring plenty of upside into the Kentucky Derby.
He broke his maiden in a Maiden Special Weight at Tampa Bay Downs in February, earning a sharp 97 Beyer in the process. Most recently, he stepped up in class and won the Louisiana Derby with a 90 Beyer, defeating fellow Derby entrants Pavlovian and Golden Tempo. That race was run at a mile and three sixteenths, and he handled the added ground well, making him one of the few horses in this field to have already won at a distance close to the Derby trip.
While the talent is clearly there, the bigger questions revolve around experience and race dynamics. He has the speed and tactical ability, but stepping into a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field is a very different test in terms of pressure, pace, and traffic.
History is also working against him to some degree, as only one horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with just two career starts, going all the way back to Leonatus in 1883.
Flavien Prat takes over the mount, bringing a strong record in Triple Crown races and already owning a Kentucky Derby win. His ability to stay patient and navigate a clean trip will be a major asset for a lightly raced horse like this.
The bottom line is that Emerging Market has the pedigree, speed, and improving form to be very dangerous, but this will be his toughest test yet. If he continues his upward trajectory, he fits the mold of a classic “could be anything” type who is capable of making a serious impact with the right trip and another step forward.
In the Mix/ Live for the Board
#1 Renegade
Renegade has been dominant in his two starts this season, winning both the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He cruised to a nearly four-length victory in the Sam F. Davis and followed that up with another four-length win in the Arkansas Derby, showing clear improvement with each outing.
That said, there are several concerns. The most obvious is the draw. It has been 40 years since a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post, with Ferdinand being the last to do so.
There are also health-related questions. Renegade has been dealing with quarter cracks in his front feet and will wear three-quarter shoes on both front hooves. He managed to overcome the issue in the Arkansas Derby, and trainer Todd Pletcher has downplayed the concern, but it is still something to monitor closely.
From a jockey standpoint, Irad Ortiz Jr. has chosen to ride Renegade over several other options, which speaks to the horse’s talent. However, despite his overall success, Ortiz has yet to finish in the money in his Kentucky Derby rides, which adds another layer of uncertainty.
Renegade may be the most talented horse in the field and could go off as the favorite. Still, with the combination of the inside draw, health concerns, and race dynamics, he will likely need a perfect trip to get the job done.
#7 Danon Bourbon
Danon Bourbon ships in from Japan to make his North American debut in the Kentucky Derby. He is undefeated through three career starts, most recently winning the Fukuryu Stakes by more than three lengths.
Japanese runners have yet to win this race, although Forever Young came close with a third-place finish two years ago before developing into a top-level talent. While Danon Bourbon could be on a similar trajectory, this feels like a tough spot to expect a win.
There is enough upside to see him landing on the board, but with limited experience and several unknowns, it is difficult to fully trust him against this field.
#11 Incredibolt
Incredibolt enters off an impressive four-length victory in the Virginia Derby, where he posted a career best 88 Beyer Speed Figure. That performance was a strong rebound after a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes.
One concern is the timing. The Virginia Derby was run in mid-March, meaning he will enter the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff. Historically, that is a difficult path, with Authentic being the only horse to win off that kind of break in the modern era, and that came under unique circumstances.
There are positives, though. Incredibolt is the only horse in the field with multiple wins at Churchill Downs, including a maiden victory and a win in the G3 Street Sense Stakes as a two-year-old. That familiarity with the track is a clear advantage.
Still, his running style raises questions. As a closer, it is unclear if he has the speed to run down this field. He has yet to post a Beyer figure above 90, which is another concern at this level. While he could work his way into the mix and potentially hit the board, it is difficult to view him as a serious win threat.
#14 Potente
Potente is the most expensive horse in the field, purchased for $2.4 million. He did not race as a two-year-old but has made three starts this season, winning his debut in a Maiden Special Weight before capturing the San Felipe Stakes, defeating fellow entrants Robusta and So Happy.
In his most recent outing, he finished second in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, coming home three and three-quarters lengths behind So Happy. All of his starts have come at Santa Anita, though he did post an encouraging workout recently at Churchill Downs.
This race represents a clear step up in class, and there are still questions surrounding how he will handle the distance. His speed figures are trending in the right direction, but relative to the rest of the field, it is difficult to see him as a win candidate. That said, he remains a logical option to use underneath in exotics.
#19 Golden Tempo
Golden Tempo opened his season with a win in the Lecomte Stakes, edging the field by three-quarters of a length. He followed that up with back-to-back third-place finishes in the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. While his speed figures have been trending upward, he was beaten in the Louisiana Derby by fellow entrants Emerging Market and Pavlovian.
There are also some concerns. He has been dealing with cracked heels on both front feet, although trainer Cherie DeVaux has downplayed the issue. In addition, all of his racing experience has come at Fair Grounds, leaving some uncertainty about how he will handle a different track and a much deeper field.
His recent workouts have been encouraging, and he does appear to be improving. However, this is a significant step up in class. With a faster projected pace and questions about his closing ability, it is difficult to see him keeping up late in the Kentucky Derby.
Betting Strategy
This year’s Kentucky Derby presents a much different challenge than last year’s. Previously, it felt possible to narrow the field down to three or four legitimate contenders. This time around, the overall quality feels more spread out, nearly every horse comes with real question marks, and the pool of potential winners looks closer to seven or eight deep.
So how should you approach it?
Before getting into the strategy itself, it is important to frame what this race represents. For many, the Derby and the entire Triple Crown are similar to a major championship in golf. Casual fans tune in for a handful of races each year, and that is completely fine. But because of that, this should be treated more as entertainment than a reliable money-making opportunity. A 20-horse field introduces chaos, and even the best handicappers struggle to consistently beat races like this. If you are entering with a set budget, you should be comfortable losing it.
With that in mind, my preferred approach this year is targeting a trifecta. There are simply too many horses that can win to confidently single one on top, so spreading exposure across multiple contenders makes more sense. Yes, a trifecta is harder to hit, but this is the type of race where taking a bigger swing aligns with the uncertainty of the field.
If this were a conversation about betting a full season, like hockey or golf, bankroll management would be the foundation. This is different. The Derby is a one-day event, and the goal shifts toward maximizing upside rather than grinding out long-term profit.
Tickets
This is built around a $100 budget for the Kentucky Derby. Feel free to adjust it based on your own opinions or risk tolerance, but this is how I’m approaching the race from a betting standpoint.
6, 12, 15, 18 / 6, 8, 12, 14, 15, 18 / 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19
Exacta
8 / 1, 6, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19
Best of luck, and as always, you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback, whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
