We have come to the end of my friends. These are the last of the bowl games aside from the college football playoff. Even though the matchups are not the best there are bets to be made!
- Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Rice Owls (5-7, 2-6 AAC) vs Texas State Bobcats (6-6, 3-5 Sunbelt)
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Date, Time, Channel: January 2nd, 1:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 68 degrees, Wind 12 MPH Gusts up to 18 MPH, Clear skies
ATS Trends: Rice (5-7, 4-5 Underdog) TXST (4-8, 2-6 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Rice Rushing Offense (14th YPG) vs TXST Rush Defense (96th YPG) TXST Pass Offense (37th YPG) vs Rice Pass Defense (112th YPG)
Key opt outs: Rice Starting QB Chase Jenkins
Line: Open: TXST (-9.5) O/U: 61.5 Current: (-16.5) O/U: 55.5
Analysis: Texas State is certainly disappointed with how their season went. They lost several close shootouts throughout the season but, down the stretch they really took it to South Alabama, ULM, and Southern Miss. Rice on the other hand took a couple of beatings to the hands of UNT and USF and if this line is telling us anything it is that another one could be in store for the Owls. The Owls are not a threat through the air at all and unfortunately for them they play an Offensive who plays with pace similar to UNT and USF. If they begin to fall behind there is no path for them to get back into it. The extra time for the Bobcats to prepare for this Owls offense along with the Owls being without their starting quarterback, the Cats should be able to have their way. There is one 15.5 available out there but this line is trending up. Get it while the getting is hot.
Pick: Texas State (-15.5)
- AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Navy Midshipmen (10-2, 7-1 AAC) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)
Location: Memphis, TN
Date, Time, Channel: January 2nd, 4:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 52 Degrees, Wind 6 MPH gust up to MPH, 70% chance of rain
ATS Trends: Navy (4-8, 2-6 Favorite) CIN (6-6, 2-3 Underdog)
Key Matchups: Navy Rush Offense (1st YPG) vs Cincinnati Rush Defense (99th YPG) Cincinnati Pass Offense (55th YPG) vs Navy Pass Defense (108th YPG)
Key opt outs: Cincinnati: Starting QB Brendan Sorsby, Several Defensive Backs, and potentially star DT Dontay Corleone and LB Jake Golday.
Line: CIN (-5.5) O/U: (56.5) Current: Navy (-7) O/U: (53.5)
Analysis: What are we even going to get from the Bearcats? If I could go back in time and bet my lifesavings on Navy at +5.5 I just might. No power 4 team wants to play a service academy in a bowl game and Navy has so much going in their favor. Their offense is led by three seniors QB Blake Horvath, RB Eli Heidenrich, and RB Alex Tezca. All these men want to win their final college game bad! The Midshipmen already won a game in this stadium once this year, even at full strength the Bearcats’ rush defense is questionable at best, and with the rain that benefits the best rush offense in America. We are a little late to the party but, I love the Midshipmen by a touchdown or less.
Pick: Navy (-7)
- Trust & Will Holiday Bowl: Arizona Wildcats (9-3, 6-3 Big 12) vs Southern Methodist Mustangs (8-4, 6-2 ACC)
Location: San Diego, CA
Date, Time, Channel: January 2nd, 8:00 PM/EST, FOX
Weather: 62 Degrees, Wind 3 MPH Gusts up to 7 MPH, Cloudy
ATS Trends: ARI (8-4, 2-2 Underdog) SMU (5-7, 3-6 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Arizona Pass Offense (39th YPG) vs SMU Pass Defense (135th YPG) SMU Pass Offense (12th YPG) vs Arizona Pass Defense (4th YPG)
Key opt outs: Arizona is keeping it close to the chest and will not know until game time. SMU has nothing significant as of now.
Line: Open: ARI (-1.5) O/U: (51.5) Current SMU (-1) O/U: (51.5)
Analysis: Shop around on the number on this one as there is SMU -1.5 and Arizona -1.5, so we are seeing action on both sides. I think this one comes down to motivation. SMU had a second consecutive ACC title berth on the line in their last game and got upset by Cal. After a long lay-off I have hard time seeing them getting up for this one. The concern here is that we do not know who is playing for Arizona but, as long as Noah Fifita is playing, Arizona can move the ball on this SMU defense. It also does not hurt the defensive coordinator for Arizona Danny Gonzales signed a contract extension to stick around with the Cats so, the defense should be ready to go! This SMU offense is not as explosive as they were last year, and the Wildcats should be able to Bear Down and win outright. The under is also a good look here with the long lay off the offenses will be slow to start.
Pick: Arizona (+1.5)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4, 4-4 ACC) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7, 1-7 SEC)
Location: Charlotte, NC
Date, Time, Channel: January 2nd, 8:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 50 degrees, Wind 4 MPH gusts up to 9 MPH, Cloudy
ATS Trends: WF (8-4, 4-3 Underdog) MSU (8-4, 3-0 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Wake Forest Rushing Offense (70th YPG) vs Miss State Rush Defense (118th YPG) Miss State Pass Offense (58th YPG) vs Wake Forest Defense (40th YPG)
Key opt outs: Wake Forest DT Mateen Ibirogba (Dude will have offers)
Line: Open: MSU (-2.5) O/U: 57.5 Current: MSU (-3) O/U: 53.5
Analysis: I do not know what to do with this one. They had to go pretty far down the list to get Mississippi State to play in this game as no one else wanted to. The Bulldogs will probably be starting freshmen quarterback Kamario Taylor in this one who is a dual threat and honestly is a better option than Blake Shapen. I love this Wake Forest defense they were great all year and even without their top defensive linemen they should be able to hold down the Bulldogs offense. I lean towards the under and the Deacs. Both these teams were great underdogs all year and I am not eager to get involved.
Pick: Lean Wake Forest (+3)
My last picks for bowl season: Texas State (-15.5), Navy (-7), Arizona (+1.5)
