I hope the holidays have been fruitful and bowl season even more so. It is a sad time of year as the College Football season begins to trickle down to the end but, It ain’t over yet baby! We have money to win! Here are my picks for the New Year’s Day Playoff Games.
- Capital One Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks (12-1, 8-1 Big Ten) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1, 8-1 Big 12)
Location: Miami Gardens, FL
Date, Time, Channel: January 1st, 12:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 62 degrees, Wind 8 MPH with gusts up to 14 MPH, Clear
ATS Trends: ORE (7-5-1, 7-5 Favorite) TTU (11-2, 1-0 Underdog)
Key Matchups: Oregon Rush Offense (13th YPG) vs TTU Rush Defense (1st YPG); Texas Tech Pass Offense (12th YPG) vs Oregon Pass Defense (6th YPG)
Key opt outs: It’s the playoffs.
Line: Open: ORE (-3.5) O/U: (52.5) Current: ORE (-2.5) O/U: (51.5)
Analysis: This game is strength on strength on strength. It should be mentioned here that last year not one team that had a bye managed to win their game. You have to respect what the Red Raiders did this season, but they did not play a team anywhere near the caliber of the Ducks. Even with the move down I still see value in the under and with all things being almost equal in talent, the advantage is with the Ducks having potentially the first overall pick Dante Moore taking snaps. This game should absolutely come down to the wire, and the difference will be the experience of Oregon along with the better quarterback. Texas Tech only had a single game that was decided by one score which is the lone loss of the season. I believe that the lack of close games will lead to the Red Raiders falling short. I like the Ducks under a field goal.
Pick: Oregon (-2.5)
- Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3, 7-1 SEC) vs Indiana Hoosiers (13-0, 9-0 Big 10)
Location: Pasadena, CA
Date, Time, Channel: January 1st, 4:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 61 degrees, Wind 4 MPH with gusts up to 9 MPH, Light Rain
ATS Trends: ALA (8-4-2, 2-1 Underdog) IND (8-5, 6-5 favorite)
Key Matchups: Alabama Pass Offense (23rd YPG) vs Indiana Pass Defense (18th YPG) Indiana Rush Offense (10th YPG) vs Alabama Rush Defense (28th YPG)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: Indiana (-7) O/U (48.5) Current: Indiana (-7.5) O/U: (48)
Analysis: Who ever thought we would see the day the Hoosiers would be the #1 team in the country and favored against Alabama by a touchdown! The only thing we know in this one is Alabama cannot run the ball. As much as Bama’s first round comeback win was impressive, they had not been playing well down the stretch. They gave up 24 points to an awful Oklahoma offense in round 1 and are against a much more competent offense in the Rose Bowl. Indiana has an elite defense and elite offense so as long as they can defend the pass which they proven they can, where is the edge for Bama? There is still flat 7s available, so I am not going to be fooled by the first-round game I like Indiana by a touchdown. If Oklahoma can get 24, what do you think Indiana can do with Heisman winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza who has weapons on the perimeter!
Pick: Indiana (-7)
- Allstate Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels (12-1, 7-1 SEC) vs Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, 7-1 SEC)
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date, Time, Channel: January 1st, 8:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: Indoors
ATS Trends: MISS (8-4-1, 1-1 Underdog) UGA (6-6-1, 6-7 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Ole Miss Pass Offense (3rd YPG) vs Georgia Pass Defense (48th YPG) Georgia Rush Defense (31st YPG) vs Ole Miss Rush Defense (69th YPG)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: UGA (-6.5) O/U: 56 Current: UGA (-6.5) O/U (55.5)
Analysis: Our second all SEC rematch of the College football playoff. The last time these teams met it was a shootout! Georgia scored on every possession they had in the game and Ole Miss was no slouch. There has been quite a bit of changes since the last time these teams played. Georgia has really found their identity defensively coming of a stellar performance in the SEC championship and Ole Miss arguably lost theirs when Lane Kiffin left. This is the game where Ole Miss really starts to feel the loss of Lane. I do not see the script playing out the same here as I expect both teams to be far more buttoned up on defense and Kirby Smart to be able to outcoach what is left of Ole Miss Coaching staff. I anticipate the Georgia defense taking care of business and the Georgia offense to control the clock. My playoff picks are little chalky but, I like the Bulldogs here under a touchdown and will also look at the under.
Pick: Georgia (-6.5)
