We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to recap a weekend of madness. We take a first look at the early lines for the sweet 16! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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McNeese St vs Purdue -5.5 O/U 143.5 – Amica mutual Pavilion in Providence RI
Nice big win for McNeese but they almost choked that away along with the choke on the under.
Both teams play slow, yet efficient basketball, but Purdue has most of the matchup advantages on paper minus near the rim.
I myself see more of a defensive slugfest this game as both teams will try and take care of the rock. Neither team shoots a lot of 3s.
I think if all goes well for Purdue, they should win this game somewhat easily, but their rank of 361st in home road splits really worries me. Taking the under
Under 143.5 – 2 stars
Gonzaga vs Houston -4.5 O/U 139.5 – Intrust bank Arena in Wichita KS
Gonzaga jumped Georgia 27-3 and didn’t look back.
I do not think Houston will deal with anything like that.
The Zags are hot at the right time, but Houston should be able to score down low.
Strangely enough, the Zags have become a defensive team over the past few games.
Houston forces teams to play at their pace. The Zags do slow it down like we have seen against St Mary’s as none of their games even sniffed the over.
I do not see a lot of scoring on either side of the ball.
Houston tends to play pretty close games against good teams.
Under 139.5 – 3 stars
UCLA vs Tennessee -4.5 O/U 132.5 – Rupp Arena Lexington KY
The Bruins had it too easy against Utah State yet the Vols had it pretty easy against Wofferd.
I really do not like how the SEC has been playing basketball. The Vols will have a near proximity advantage over the Bruins ranking 28th in Haslametris to the Bruins defending it at 189th. No other big advantages really exist for either offense.
Tennessee is very close to home and should have the crowd advantage.
UCLA was hot last game, but they might cool off some. Both teams are incredibly inconsistent ranking 329 or worse on their condistancy metric which makes me look or lean to a ML play on UCLA.
Lean UCLA ML +164
Sunday:
Illinois vs Kentucky +1.5 O/U 170.5 – Fiserv Forum Milwaukee WI
This should be an electrifying matchup with the highest total in the round of 32.
Another home crowd advantage should factor in some for the Illini.
Both teams have firing offenses, but the Cats do lack a bit in offensive rebounding.
If this game turns into a three point contest, I worry for Illinois as Kentucky knows how to defend it.
I like Illinois some here, but they have to score down low like they did against Xavier.
If this game comes down to the end, I trust Lamont Butler on Kentucky more than Freshman Kasparas Jakucionis.
Lean Illinois ML and lean Illinois 1st half ML
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BYU vs Wisconsin -1 O/U 155.5 – Ball Arena in Denver CO
This game is troubling to me as both teams seem to mirror each other and both are very inconsistent.
These two teams play at a medium pace and love to shoot the three ball. Both top 20 in three point attempts.
There is a ton of variance in this game as the team that wins is the one that will hit more 3s.
Wisconsin is better at defending the three while BYU is better at shooting the 3.
BYU is playing very close to home in Denver, but there will be Badger fans as well.
Wisconsin starts games off well, but they don’t always finish well.
Wisconsin 1st half PK -120 – 1.5 stars
Sunday:
Baylor vs Duke -11.5 O/U 143.5 – Lenovo Center Raleigh NC
This is essentially a home game for Duke.
The Blue Devils are playing like an NBA team right now. Baylor is feisty, but they have no matchup advantages on offense and very few on defense.
Baylor might be able to hang around for a little while, but this game could get ugly quick.
Lean Baylor 1st half +6
St Mary’s vs Alabama -5.5 O/U 148.5 – Rocket Arena Cleveland OH
This is an interesting pace war as Alabama is the fastest team while St Mary’s is the 4th slowest team in the country.
The Total insinuates that Alabama sets more of the pace which tells your that the spread may be live here.
The only matchup advantage that the Crimson tide have here is from the mid range. If Alabama isn’t hitting threes, then this game could get ugly for them.
Alabama plays some pretty solid defense themselves. This is a perfect spread, but I lean St Mary’s in the first half.
Lean St Mary’s 1st half +3
Oregon vs Arizona -3.5 O/U 152.5 – Climate Pledge Arena Seattle WA
This is a home game for Oregon playing in Seattle.
Both of these teams destroyed their competition in the first round, but I expect ths game to be a little tighter.
Arizona is a fast paced team, but they are also very inconsistent.
The only real matchup advantage that Arizona has is mid range shots, and they are the better rebounding team.
Oregon has played some very good basketball down the stretch winning 9 of their last 10 games.
These coaches know each other very well from their PAC12 days.
Factoring in home court, this game should be closer to pickem.
Oregon +3.5 – 2 stars
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We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from @VSINLIVE is back to break down a weekend of MADNESS! First, Kiev reminds us to get in some free tournament challenges listed below. Next, Will comes on and the guys get right into the best foods to eat and places to watch the NCAA tournament. Then, Will and Kiev play a game called buy, sell or 50/50 on all of the popular March Madness trends. Next, we talk more about their brackets giving out Cinderellas and their final four. After that the guys break down Will’s BEST BETS for the first round on Friday of the NCAA tournament. Next, the guys give out some long shots and some props that they like for the big dance. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
I would call this the second easiest quadrant for the smaller teams. Kentucky has some injury issues, while Tennessee and Houston can get cold when it comes to scoring. I still think Houston gets to the final four, but there will be a lot of ATS opportunities upon us.
The Midwest quadrant of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling battleground. Houston, the No. 1 seed, is a solid favorite, boasting an impressive season and a gritty, defensive style of play. However, the path to the Final Four won’t be easy, with formidable teams like Tennessee (No. 2 seed), Kentucky (No. 3 seed), and Purdue (No. 4 seed) in the mix.
Potential upsets and Cinderella stories are always a highlight of March Madness. Keep an eye on High Point, a No. 13 seed, which has the offensive firepower to challenge Purdue in the first round. Similarly, McNeese State, a No. 12 seed, could pose a threat to Clemson, thanks to their strong non-conference performances.
Key matchups to watch include Houston vs. Tennessee, which could be a clash of titans if both teams advance to the later rounds. Additionally, the No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia game promises to be a nail-biter, with Gonzaga’s tournament experience pitted against Georgia’s hunger for a win.
Thursday:
High Point vs Purdue -7.5 O/U 153.5 – Amica mutual Pavilion in Providence RI
I see a lot of variance in this game. Purdue has the capability of blowing teams out, but they have had a terrible last month down the stretch.
Highpoint has been red hot, but they haven’t played anyone with much of a pulse this year. I lean High Point, but the public is also on it.
Total is a touch high.
Lean Highpoint +7.5
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston -28.5 O/U 126.5 – Intrust bank Arena in Wichita KS
Should be a blowout as Houston can name their margin and total of the points scored.
Lean Houston TT over
McNeese vs Clemson -7.5 O/U 134.5 – Amica Mutual Pavilion Providence RI
Clemson is the next highest seed after Duke in the ACC. They are a solid team, but nothing special.
Both teams like to play slow with good defense. Clemson has a three point and mid range advantage over McNeese.
Neither team rebounds well on defense. I can see some easy put backs.
McNeese has the turnover advantage and they can get some steels against Clemson.
McNeese played Alabama and only lost by 6. They lost to Miss State by 3. They beat a few good etams. They can hang.
I like McNeese as a smaller play +7.5 for 1 star.
Georgia vs Gonzaga -6.5 O/U 151.5 – Intrust bank Arena in Wichita KS
Kenpom really likes this Gonzaga team, but I cannot say the same.
Inconsistency has been the mantra of both of these teams. Somehow, Gonzaga has been poor away from home this year losing to Kentucky, UCONN, UCLA, West Virginia and Oregon State. This isn’t your typical top 5 Zags team we remember from the past 10 years.
Although Georgia has had their mid-season woes, this team at leat finished strong with big wins vs Florida, Texas and Vanderbilt.
Georgia has a near proximity advantage ranking 24th near the rim on haslametrics to Gonzaga at 68th
The schedule strength of Georgia is much bigger than Gonzaga as they played in the SEC. They are used to playing the best. I see a close game here.
Would it shock you if one of these teams beat Houston?
Georgia +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Wofford vs Tennessee -18.5 O/U 132.5 – Rupp Arena Lexington KY
This is a home game for Tennessee less than 200 miles away. They pounded the children of the poor early in the non-conference. I do not see why it doesn’t happen again.
Wofford might not score 50 points against this defense.
Wofford lost to duke by over 50 points this year.
Tennessee -18.5 – 2.5 stars
Utah State vs UCLA -5.5 O/U 144.5 – Rupp Arena Lexington KY
This one is hard for me as I really do not like either team all that much.
UCLA is defensive oriented yet their offensive plays at a medium place. The Aggies play quite fast, but falter when they play a decent defense.
Both teams are terrible away from home. I will maybe look at the under or UCLA in a ML Parlay.
Lean Under
Troy vs Kentucky +10.5 O/U 152.5 – Fiserv Forum Milwaukee WI
Troy has some defense, but not nearly enough to keep up with Kentucky.
I thought about betting the Trojans, but Lamont Butler will be back and heathier for the Cats.
Kentucky ranks 20th in effective FG% while Troy ranks 222nd.
It’s hard not to trust Lamont Butler in a tournament setting.
Lean Kentucky -10.5
Xavier vs Illinois -3.5 O/U 160.5 –
On Wednesday, Xavier was dead to rights until Texas puked all over themselves.
Illinois is the more powerful team, but they will shoot a lot of threes and they have been inconsistent in that.
Xavier has a three point matchup advantage over Illinois as the Illini can’t seem to guard it all that well. Illinois should be able to score inside quite easily as Xavier is the shorter team.
Xaiver plays close games more often then not when they lose. I will wait it out some, but I like the Illini to win on the ML or a ML Parlay.
Lean Illinois ML
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