Friday, Dec. 20

Staff DNA Cure Bowl:  Ohio vs. Jacksonville State +5 O/U 57.5
Location:  Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ESPN

Ohio’s Motivation: Low – This team won their conference and it’s time to party in Florida.  Coach Tim Albin left town for Charlotte.

Jacksonville State’s Motivation: Low – The Gamecocks also won their conference but Rich Rodriguez is only 2-10 ATS in bowl games and he may have 1 foot out the door!

Home:  None as Ohio folks will want to vacation.

Key Guys Missing:

Ohio Transfer Portal

• N/A

Ohio is still the only team without any players in the portal as of now.

Jacksonville State Transfer Portal

• Starting S Zechariah Poyser (led defense in snaps)
• Starting OLB Reginald Hughes (best edge player)
• Starting S Fred Perry (first-team All CUSA)
• Starting CB Jabari Mack
• Starting CB Fred Davis
• CB Derek Carter (207 snaps)
• OL K.D. Arnold (215 snaps)

Last year, players in the portal didn’t play in the bowl game for the Gamecocks.

Net YPP:  Ohio +.34

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Jacksonville State plays fast, but somehow Ohio has been on a tear as of late.   I think that it’s tough to compare conferences in this spot and motivation will be key.  I think Jacksonville State has the lower motivation, but it’s very hard to tell that.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Jacksonville State: Michael Nysewander in the interim, 0-0
• Ohio:  Brian Smith is the new coach, 0-0

Verdict:   This is a far line.  I am shocked there are no Ohio Transfers as the coach has left.   The over has pushed this line too high as these teams can stop each others rushing attack.

Play:  Lean under

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl:  Tulane vs. Florida -10.5 O/U 49.5
Location:  Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Tulane’s Motivation:   Medium High – They will get to play the SEC, yet they lost their quarterback Darian Mensah to transfer to Duke.

Florida’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Beating Tulane doesn’t help much yet they are at least in their state and Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  Florida gets 3 points as they have an easy 134 mile drive to Tampa.

Key Guys Missing:

Tulane Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Darian Mensah (committed to Duke)
• Starting DE Matthew Fobbs-White (committed to Baylor)
• DL Parker Petersen (276 snaps; committed to Wisconsin)
• RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (72 snaps)
• Backup QB Ty Thompson
• Backup QB Kai Horton

Despite entering the portal, former Oregon transfer Ty Thompson has stated he will still start at quarterback for the bowl game after Mensah committed to Duke. He was used in various packages this season.

Tulane Potential Opt-Out

• DB Calen Ransaw

Florida Injuries

• Top CB Jason Marshall (out for year)
• CB2 Devin Moore (hasn’t played since Week 10)
• CB3 Ja’Keem Jackson (hasn’t played since Week 2)
• Nickel Aaron Gates (missed regular-season finale)
• LB Pup Howard (hasn’t played since Week 11)
• S Asa Turner (hasn’t played since Week 1)

Graham Mertz and WR Tre Wilson are also out for the year.

Florida Transfer Portal

• Starting OLB T.J. Searcy
• TE Arlis Boardingham (294 snaps)
• DL Jack Pyburn (334 snaps, committed to LSU)
• DE Justus Boone (138 snaps)
• DL Kelby Collins (59 snaps)

Starting RG Damieon George entered the portal but then withdrew, which means four of the five starting offensive linemen should be back next season.

Net YPP:  Tulane +.57

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Nothing is more key than Florida’s strength of schedule ranking 5th in the nation to Tulane’s at 76.   I also could see Florida having some success running the ball as Tulane has shown weakness against the run.   Backup quarterback Ty Thompson will give it a shot for the Green Wave, but I also feel that they will be motivated as Jon Sumrall signed an extension.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Florida: Billy Napier: 0-4
• Tulane: Jon Sumrall: 1-0

Verdict:  14 points is a lot to give a Florida team who hasn’t beaten a good team away from home all year long.  Napier has not faired will in bowls at 0-4 ATS.   I expect some more opt outs from Florida as well.  Take the points.

Play:  Tulane +10.5

PLAYOFFS!  

No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame -7 O/U 51

Location:  Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)
Time:  8 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC/ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  Notre Dame but only -2.5 as Indiana is in the state.

Key Guys Missing:

Indiana:  

• CB Jamier Johnson missed the regular-season finale
• LG Drew Evans is injured.

Notre Dame:

• LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will miss due to injury.

Net YPP:  Indiana +.35

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Indiana is number 1 and number 4 in offensive and defensive success rate.  Notre Dame is 30th and 12th respectively.   Both teams are tops in both offensive and defensive EPA categories.   

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 2-0
• Indiana:  Curt Cignetti, 0-0

Verdict:   If you like Notre Dame here, it is only because you think that the Big 10 is much weaker than the numbers show.   I think that both of these teams are closer than some folks think.

Play:  Indiana +7

Saturday Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State -8.5 O/U 54

Location:  Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Time:  12 p.m.
TV Network:  TNT

All Motivated.

Home:  Penn State -3.5 for home field (thank god it’s not a white out)

Key Guys Missing:

SMU:

• Backup QB Beau Pribula (won’t be with team)
• TE RJ Maryland is out for the year

Penn State:

• RT Anthony Donkoh

Net YPP:  Penn State +.44

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Penn State has a small strength of schedule advantage at 44th to 61st.   SMU is an interesting team that has low success rates on offense ranking 52nd, while they have some great explosiveness ranking 8th.  This is why their offensive EPA is 19th.   Penn State’s defense tends to struggle against explosive plays ranking 87th.   Otherwise, Penn State should be able to score on SMU.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• SMU: Rhett Lashlee, 0-2
• Penn State: James Franklin, 7-5

Verdict:  This game will completely depend on SMU QB Kevin Jennings.  This kid has some great numbers this season and has beaten some very good teams.  I do think that they can find some explosive plays and the back door is always wide open when you have a good offense.   James Franklin has been terrible in big games.

Play:  SMU +8.5 and take ML Small +250

No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas -12 O/U 51.5

Location:   Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
Time:  4 p.m.
TV Network: TNT

All Motivated

Home:  Texas -3 at home.

Key Guys Missing:

Clemson:

• WR Troy Stellato (314 snaps; currently injured)

Texas: 

• None

Net YPP:  Texas +1.38

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Texas has a large strength of schedule advantage to go along with that massive yards per play discrepancy.   The Longhorns can get a little lethargic on offense at times, but I just do not see how Clemson can move the ball.   Texas dominates Clemson in all facets of the game.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Clemson: Dabo Swinney, 12-8
• Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 2-4

Verdict:   The only reason that Clemson is here is because of the ACC officiating.   They could lose by 30 and this under could still hit.   I just don’t completely trust Steve Sarkesian in big games similar to James Franklin.    I think low scoring.

Play:   Under 51.5 

No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ohio State -7.5 O/U 46.5

Location:  Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:   Ohio State gets -3 at home.

Key Guys Missing:

Tennessee:

• LB Jalen Smith (256 snaps)
• WR Kaleb Webb (99 snaps)

Ohio State:

• LT Josh Simmons is out for the year
• C Seth McLaughlin is out for the year

Net YPP:  Ohio State +.76

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Both defenses have big advantages over the offenses, and especially in the trenches.  Ohio State has more upside as their offense is ranked 2nd in EPA to Tennessee’s at 29th.  Buckeye quarterback Will Howard has more big game experience than Nico Iamaleava from the Vols, yet this game could be a good offensive coaching matchup to see who can get first downs.   

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Tennessee: Josh Heupel, 3-3
• Ohio State: Ryan Day, 2-4

Verdict:   I think that this is the perfect number for this game, yet I lean Ohio State as they must just be reeling from the Michigan game.

Play:  Lean under

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA -10 O/U 55.5
Location:  Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Time:  11 a.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Medium – They will want to finish of their season with a big win.

UTSA’s Motivation:  Medium  – UTSA has turned it up at the end to make a bowl game, but will they care to win it?

Home:  This is literally a home game for Coastal Carolina.

Key guys Missing:

Coastal Carolina:

• QB Noah Kim in portal
• QB Ethan Vasko in portal

Head coach Tim Beck said redshirt freshman Tad Hudson (0 career snaps) will probably be the starter.

• Starting TE Kendall Karr (looks like he’ll be headed to Houston)
• Top CB Matthew McDoom (signed with Cincinnati)
• Starting OLB Clev Lubin (signed with Auburn)
• CB Cristian Conyer (362 snaps)
• RB Christian Washington (298 snaps)
• RB Simeon Price (131 snaps)
• DL Naejuan Barber (293 snaps)
• DL Cohen Fuller (172 snaps)
• CB Jaitlin Hampton (123 snaps)
• DL Will Whitson (182 snaps; last played Week 7)
• RT Zovon Lindsay missed the regular-season finale.
• LG Anthony Walton may be injured.
• WR Cameron Wright may still be injured.
• LB Shane Bruce missed the last two games.
• LB Wyatt Gedeon missed the final two games.
• S AJ Williams also missed the finale.

UTSA:

• Starting DE Ronald Triplette in portal.
• RB Kevorian Barnes (233 snaps) in portal.
• WR Jace Wilson (197 snaps) in portal.
• Backup QB Eddie Lee is injured..
• CB Denver Harris didn’t play in the finale
• TE Oscar Cardenas is out for the year (last played in Week 9).

Head coach Jeff Traylor says he expects most of roster to be available for bowl game with players in the portal even traveling with the team.

Net YPP:  Coastal Carolina +.1

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Nothing is more key than Coastal Carolina’s opt out and transfers.   I think that the backups will be motivated here, but it could get ugly quite fast.   The Roadrunners have really come along since mid-season.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Coastal Carolina: Tim Beck, 1-0
• UTSA: Jeff Traylor, 2-2

Verdict:  I will play UTSA as I think most of the rest of the team will play.

Play: UTSA -10

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:  Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State +3 O/U 42
Location:  Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
Time:  2:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Northern Illinois Motivation:  Medium – Not a good reward to go to Boise, but this team might join the Mountain West conference.  QB Ethan Hampton in transfer portal.

Fresno State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – This team is going through cruel and unusual punishment in having to play their bowl game within a cold in-conference stadium like Boise.  This place is so bad that both quarterbacks Ethan Hampton and Mikey Keene are in the transfer portal.

Home:   None

Key Guys Missing:

Fresno State hired Matt Entz as its new head coach, but current interim Tim Skipper will coach the bowl.

Fresno State Portal

• Starting QB Mikey Keene
• Starting WR Jalen Moss
• Starting WR Raylen Sharpe (signed with Arkansas)
• Starting CB Alzillion Hamilton
• Starting DT Gavriel Lightfoot
• Starting DT Jacob Holmes
• Starting LB Phoenix Jackson (committed to Auburn)
• WR Mac Dalena (declared for NFL draft)
• CB Cam Lockridge (declared for NFL draft)
• LG Osmar Velez
• CB Cam Lockridge didn’t play in the final three games.

Northern Illinois Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Ethan Hampton (signed with Wake Forest)
• Starting S Santana Banner (signed with Missouri)
• Starting WR Trayvon Rudolph
• Starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard (signed with Texas Tech)
• Starting DE Jalonnie Williams
• DE Raishein Thomas (112 snaps)
• DE Neveah Sanders (96 snaps; signed with Mississippi State)
• CB Amariyun Knighten (started first eight games; going to Indiana)

Josh Holst will likely get start at QB.

Net YPP:  Northern Illinois +.28

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  With all of the opt-outs on both sides of the ball, and looking at both quarterbacks being gone, I have to look to the running game.  The Huskies rank 44th in rush EPA wile Fresno only ranks 88th in opponent rushing success rate.   Fresno can’t run the ball ranking 122nd in yards per rush.  With QB Mikey Keene out, this could be bad.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Northern Illinois: Thomas Hammock, 2-0
• Fresno State:  Tim Skipper, 0-0

Verdict:   NIU should be able to run the ball, but they are already favored.   The under looks like the better play, but I might just wait too see who else holds out.

Play:  Lean NIU -3

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl:  South Florida vs. San José State -3.5 O/U 60
Location:  Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
Time: 8 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

USF’s Motivation:  Medium Low – I think the kids have fun in Hawaii.

San Jose State’s Motivation: – Medium High – This team travels to Hawaii often in their conference, and Ken Niumatalolo is 7-4 ATS in bowl games.  He is coming home to Hawaii which gives him an advantage.

Home:   I do not think a big crowd will come from either, but I do see a small 1 point advantage for San Jose State being in California.

Key Guys Missing:

San Jose State Transfer Portal

• Starting CB DJ Harvey (signed with USC)
• Starting CB Michael Dansby
• Backup QB Emmett Brown
• C Hudson Mesa also missed the finale.
• Best WR Nick Nash opting out

USF Portal

• Starting S Tawfiq Byard
• Starting DT Doug Blue-Eli (signed with Rutgers)
• Starting LG Andrew Kilfoyl

Net YPP:  San Jose State +1.25

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   South Florida ranking 37th in rush EPA and 9th in explosiveness while San Jose State’s defense can somewhat stop the run ranking 25th in rush EPA.   San Jose State should be able to throw the ball well against South Florida’s poor pass defense.  

Bowl Coach ATS:

• South Florida: Alex Golesh, 1-0
• San Jose State: Ken Niumatalolo, 7-4

Verdict:  Coach Kenny’s island reunion!  Which wins out, USF’s running game or San Jose State’s passing game?   I thought the Spartans did pretty well stopping Ashton Jeanty when they played Boise State.   I lean San Jose State, but they will be in trouble if they can’t stop the run.   

Play:  Lean SJSU

References:

https://www.si.com/betting/2024-bowl-season-every-college-football-head-coach-s-against-the-spread-record-in-bowl-games

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker