Weather: 60% chance of rain most of the day clearing up around 5PM.
This year’s Kentucky Derby field features a dynamic mix of solid contenders and intriguing longshots, setting the stage for a thrilling race. Journalism, the early 3-1 favorite, has been nothing short of dominant in his last four starts, showcasing both tactical speed and closing ability. His decisive win in the Santa Anita Derby cemented his status as a top contender, and under the expert guidance of trainer Brad Cox, he has steadily matured into a formidable racehorse. Sovereignty, at 5-1 odds, is a horse that excels late in races, often surging past competitors in the final furlongs. Having already claimed victory at Churchill Downs in a lower-level stakes race, he’s comfortable on the track—a significant advantage heading into the Derby. His thrilling triumph at Gulfstream Park highlighted his ability to navigate crowded fields, making him a dangerous presence in the final stretch.
Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner, is an undeniable talent but has shown some inconsistencies in his maturity. His raw speed makes him a threat, yet concerns about his stamina over the grueling 1 ¼-mile Derby distance loom large. Meanwhile, Burnham Square, despite sitting at 12-1 odds, boasts the highest number of qualifying points among all competitors. This suggests reliability, consistency, and race-tested endurance. Though not a flashy competitor, he has quietly built a strong resume that could surprise many on Derby Day. Luxor Café, the intriguing international entrant from Japan, is sired by American Pharoah, the legendary 2015 Triple Crown winner. His pedigree alone makes him an exciting prospect, and his performances overseas hint at the possibility of a strong showing despite being a relatively unknown quantity to U.S. racing fans.
My Thoughts:
However you want to slice it, there will be a wet track for the big race as rain is expected to continue on and off through most of Saturday. There are a few horses that have performed well in the slop in the number 2 Neoquist, the number 5 in American Promise, and the number 16 in Coal Battle. I will take this information with a grain of salt as none of these races were grade 1 competition, yet there is a horse that I do think that the muddy situation may help in his situation. My handicap is more about trying to hit a big ticket rather then small returns on the favorites. I think that there are about 12-14 horses here that can realistically win this race. It isn’t hard to make an argument for most of these ponies, but at the same time, we can’t bet them all. On the other hand, it isn’t hard to make an argument against some of these horses and let’s start right there with the favorite in Journalism. At 3-1, this horse is a deserving favorite, but I think his price should be more than 4-1. This Michael McCarthy horse has won all of his prep races including the Santa Anita derby, but the big problem with this guy is that he hasn’t raced against a field larger than five wide. I will use him in some Exotics to try and recoup if I get beat, but I am not all that impressed. The second favorite is Sandman, and according to Chris Fallica, this horse has some social media backing. Looking at the poor price on this horse, Chris and Kiev give a few other thoughts on the below video from our Kentucky Derby preview podcast.
Our problem with Sandman is that this Marc Casse horse had a very easy trip in the Arkansas derby, yet was very inconsistent in his previous traces losing to Coal Battle and Madaket Road in the Rebel Stakes, as well as his loss to Speed King in the Southwest G3. If this horse hits the top two positions, there will be no steak for me tonight. Another horse that many are looking at is the Japanese Horse Luxor Cafe. This is a very successful horse, with triple crown winner American Pharaoh as the sire, that is almost undefeated in the Japanese circuit. His last loss was last year on a muddy track. Today doesn’t bode all that well for him forecasting the track conditions and for that reason among others like poor competition makes me sour on him some, yet I last min decided to include him in a smaller tri-fecta. I will have Luxor Cafe and Journalism in some savor situations, but what I am keying in on is much more important.
My Picks:
I am going to try and key in on three horses. First, the 5 horse in American Promise is a very promising horse trained by D Wayne Lukas. This horse has the pedigree of a champion with triple crown winner Justify as the sire and Tapella (Tapit) as the Dam. This horse blew through the competition at the Virginia Derby. He has the makings of a champion with a win on a muddy track in December that was over 1 mile long. His gate position looks good if he can hang with the pace, and his price is still solid over 10-1. The next horse I fell on is the third favorite in Sovereignty. This Bill Mott horse has had a ton of success in winning the Fountain of Youth with a solid run in the Florida Derby. Had this horse had another 1/8th of a mile to go, he may have beaten Tappen Street who unfortunately was scratched from the Kentucky Derby a week ago as this horse suffered a condylar fracture to his right foreleg. I really like this closer and I think he should be the second favorite. The last horse that I fell on is Baeza who was able to join the party due to a few scratches. This horse has a really good number right now at 23-1, and he lost to the favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita derby by a 1/2 length at the wire. Baeza isn’t exactly a closer, but as Rich Strike did in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, he has a shot to sneak up from the outside and slide into first under these race conditions.
The way I am constructing my ticket is for a solid to big hit in this race. I will have a few savor tickets below as you can see, but there is no reason for me to be shy about the horses that I like in this race. I also throw in two small “holy crap” situations as anything can happen on a wet track with a field of 19 horses. The total ticket costs $341 and if you like you can halve those bets and still play the derby for $170.50. Remember to bet responsibly. Best of luck to you in all of your plays!
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
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For an in-depth breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, be sure to check out our latest podcast episode where we take a full deep dive into the Run for the Roses.
The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3rd.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the initial Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.
Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.
It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.
The National Weather Service is calling for a 90% chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, with temperatures peaking around 66°F. The Weather Channel projects it to be 61°F at 7 p.m. — just minutes after post time — with a reduced 40% chance of rain at that hour. However, rain chances remain above 60% from late morning through the afternoon. While Churchill Downs saw light drizzle during last year’s Derby, the race hasn’t been heavily affected by wet conditions since back-to-back muddy editions in 2018 and 2019.
If the track turns sloppy, keep an eye on #2 Neoequos and #5 American Promise — both are strong candidates who have won in these conditions before.
Previous Winners & Odds:
2024: Mystic Dan
Odds: 20-1
2023: Mage
Odds: 15-1
2022: Rich Strike *
Odds: 80-1
2021: Mandaloun **
Odds: 15-1
2020: Authentic
Odds: 8-1
2019: Country House ***
Odds: 65-1
2018: Justify
Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.
** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.
*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
Most Wins by a Trainer:
6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.
Post Position
Wins
1
(8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
2
(7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
3
(6) Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942); Mystic Dan (2024)
(10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
6
(2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
7
(8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
8
(8) Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934); Mage (2023)
9
(4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
10
(9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
11
(2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
12
(3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
13
(4) Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
These are the horses I’m excluding from my win bets and top positions. While one or two might sneak into the bottom of an exotic, I don’t view them as serious contenders for the 151st Kentucky Derby.
#2 Neoequos
He’s a pace presser stuck with a poor post draw, which isn’t ideal considering the crowded early setup expected in this race. I also have concerns about his ability to handle the Derby distance — there’s just not enough upside here to trust him.
#6 Admire Daytona
This Japanese-bred colt was clearly second-best when facing Luxor Café earlier this year, finishing fourth in their February clash. He’ll try to flash early speed, but I don’t think he’s quick enough to gain a favorable position. He punched his Derby ticket with a razor-thin win in one of the weakest UAE Derbies in recent memory — not the strongest endorsement.
#11 Flying Mohawk
Unless Flying Mohawk takes a massive leap forward in terms of speed figures, it’s tough to see him factoring here. He’s also making his first career start on dirt, which adds more uncertainty to the equation.
In a 20-horse field, you have to draw the line somewhere — and for me, these are the names I’m crossing off.
Win Bets
#21 Baeza
With the scratches of #4 Rodrigues and #10 Grande, Baeza has officially drawn into the field for the 151st Kentucky Derby. Though a late addition, this maturing 3-year-old is no mere filler — he’s a legitimate contender. A half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza nearly defeated current favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, falling just three-quarters of a length short over 1 1/8 miles. Despite breaking from the far outside post, his stalking running style should allow him to avoid early traffic and settle in just behind the leaders. He’s shown steady improvement in every start, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him flip the script on Journalism here.
#7 Luxor Café
No Japanese-bred horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby — but that may soon change. Luxor Café comes into Churchill Downs riding a four-race win streak, including three stakes victories where he was the post-time favorite each time. He’s been improving with every effort and was impressive in his most recent start in the Fukuryu Stakes. Sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Café is bred for this distance and stage. With his current form and pedigree, he deserves serious consideration.
Longshot Bets
#3 Final Gambit
Looking for a longshot? Final Gambit could be your horse. Though he’s never raced on dirt or against this level of competition, there are a few key factors that make him intriguing. He’s bred for both distance and dirt, and his inside post position could allow him to save ground and take advantage of what is expected to be a hot early pace. In his last start, he took a major step forward in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, beating fellow Derby contender Flying Mohawk and earning a career-best speed figure — a 27-point improvement from his prior race. He’ll be overlooked at the windows, but he has the profile of a horse who could shock at a price.
I’ll be finalizing and potentially expanding this list tomorrow — but these are the combinations I’m locking in for now!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during an NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves in San Francisco, Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
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We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Two of the great horse betting specialists in ‘The Bear’ Chris Fallica from Fox Sports and Marco D’Angelo from Wagertalk are back to break down the 151st run for the roses! First, the guys talk some football. Who is quarterbacking for the Steelers? How did the Jets do? We get into some early college football future bets! Next, the guys get right into the Kentucky Derby! Unfortunately, Marco had some internet issues and had to text in his plays. Chris and Kiev discus what will the weather be like. How big will the betting handle be? We also do a pretty deep dive into most of the horses on the card. The boys also get into some sleepers and how they are going to construct their tickets. Then, we talk about a few other races including the Kentucky Oaks. Finally, Chris and Kiev discuss if their will be a triple crown winner. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a great show for you today! Two horse betting specialists in Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche and Patrick Gates @Gatorbetting from The OddsBreakers are back to break down the 151st run for the roses! First, Kiev recaps the NFL draft and talks about some winners and losers. Next, Shawn and Patrick come on and the guys get right into the derby. What will the weather be like? Who are the favorites? Who are some sleepers? We also talk about a few other races as well as give out our thoughts on some of the horses that we will be keying in on for the big day! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The PGA Tour heads to the Lone Star State for the 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Let’s break down the course, key stats, and best bets for this week’s event.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is a longstanding PGA Tour event held annually in Texas, with a rich history dating back to its inception in 1944 as the Texas Victory Open. Named in honor of the legendary golfer Byron Nelson in 1968, the tournament has been hosted at various courses over the years, including Lakewood Country Club, Preston Trail Golf Club, and TPC Four Seasons. In 2021, the event found a new home at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, where it continues to attract top-tier talent. The tournament underwent a significant change in 2024 when the CJ Group became the title sponsor, rebranding it as The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney, Texas, just north of Dallas, is a relatively new but significant stop on the PGA Tour. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened in 2004, the course became part of the TPC network and has hosted a variety of professional events, most notably becoming the home of the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2021. Known for its generous fairways, large greens, and scenic views along Rowlett Creek, TPC Craig Ranch provides a modern layout that still challenges players with subtle elevation changes and strategically placed water hazards. While scoring tends to be low, particularly in good weather, course management remains key to taking advantage of birdie opportunities.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Duration
Course
2021 – Present
TPC Craig Ranch
2018 – 2019
Trinity Forest Golf Club
1994 – 2017
The Tournament Players Course and the Cottonwood Valley Course (Four Seasons)
1986 – 1993
TPC at Las Colinas
1983 – 1985
Las Colinas Sports Club
1968 – 1982
Preston Trail Golf Club
1958 – 1962; 1964; 1966 – 1967
Oak Cliff Country Club
1957
Glen Lake Country Club
1956 (May), 1956 (Jun)
Preston Hollow Country Club
1946
Brook Hollow Golf Club
1945
Dallas Country Club
1944
Lakewood Country Club
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
2024 – Present
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
2015 – 2019; 2021-2023
AT&T Byron Nelson
2009 – 2014
HP Byron Nelson Championship
2003 – 2008
EDS Byron Nelson Championship
2001 – 2002
Verizon Byron Nelson Classic
1999 – 2000
GTE Byron Nelson Classic
1988 – 1998
GTE Byron Nelson Golf Classic
1968 – 1987
Byron Nelson Golf Classic
1957 – 1962; 1964; 1966 – 1967
Dallas Open Invitational
1956 (Jun)
Texas International Open
1956 (May)
Dallas Centennial Open
1946
Dallas Invitational
1945
Dallas Open
1944
Texas Victory Open
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event:
4, Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980)
72-Hole Record:
259, Steven Bowditch (2015 at TPC Four Seasons). Bowditch was 18-under after heavy rain turned TPC Four Seasons into a par-69 layout for the final three rounds.
18-Hole Record:
60, Arron Oberholser (second round, 2006 at Cottonwood Valley GC), Keegan Bradley (first round, 2013 at TPC Four Seasons)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
261, Jason Day (2023), Taylor Pendrith (2024)
18-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
60, Sebastián Muñoz (first round, 2022 at TPC Craig Ranch), S.Y. Noh (first round, 2023 at TPC Craig Ranch)
Largest Margin of Victory (TPC Craig Ranch):
3 Strokes – K.H. Lee (2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.
In terms of length, TPC Craig Ranch is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,569 yards. It ranks 3 out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 8 of 44, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,778 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour.
The four Par 3’s range between 147 yards and 232 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except for No. 4 and No. 17.
No. 7, 232 Yards, Par 3: “This is a large green that slopes back to front. It is best to miss your tee shot short right, this will give you the best opportunity to get up and down.”
No. 17, 147 Yards, Par 3: “A true sleeper par 3, don’t let the yardage fool you. The wind will make hitting this green a true test. Any shot coming up short will be punished by the false front on the green and may roll back into the front bunker.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Craig Ranch with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards.No. 6 is the shortest listed at 361 yards with the longest being No. 13, playing 512 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 12 (+0.177).
No. 6, 361 Yards, Par 4: “This is a short par 4 that brings a lot of strategy into play. The fairway is well protected by bunkers, if you want to attack this hole finding the fairway is a must. If you hit driver off the tee and get to close to the green, attacking a front pin location is difficult. This is one of our smallest greens, be aggressive if find the fairway and have a wedge in your hand.”
No. 14, 362 Yards, Par 4: “This short par four is a through risk/reward hole. The shorter hitters have to decide what yardage second shot they want to have, there is more room right off the tee than appears. Most big hitter will take on the green, the bunkers right are always there to catch a bail out shot. This is one of our most undulated greens, you have to be accurate with your wedges if you want to make birdie.”
No. 16, 492 Yards, Par 4: “A long and testing par four, into the wind this hole will challenge the best of players. You have to avoid the bunkers down the left if you want to hit this green in two. The bunkers front right hide what is one of the biggest greens on the course. Hitting the middle of this green is never a bad play. There is a severe slope on the left side of the green, and getting up and down from the chipping area is hard.”
There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 18 with a scoring average of 4.415.
No. 9, 564 Yards, Par 5: “This is a tough tee shot on a windy day because of the forced carry. Plenty of room right off the tee, playing down the left side will result in more run out and better angle to the green. The big decision you have to make is with your lay up, being aggressive and taking on the creek opens up the green for third shot. This green has three tiers, distance and spin control with your wedge shot is a must.”
No. 18, 552 Yards, Par 5: “Another risk/reward hole to finish, there is a large landing area for those who have to lay up. The longer hitter off the tee will have an approach shot between 220-250 to the middle of the green. This green has two distinct levels, and if you want to make birdie being on the correct level is a must.”
The CJ CUP Byron Nelson takes place at TPC Craig Ranch. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC Craig Ranch
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.87
294.10
Driving Accuracy
62%
61%
GIR Percentage
66%
71%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.17
34.17
Scrambling Percentage
58%
66%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.40
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Craig Ranch.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
While TPC Craig Ranch isn’t overly penal off the tee, it still rewards players who drive the ball well — especially those with both distance and consistency. Wide fairways encourage aggression, and longer hitters can take advantage of shorter approach shots into greens. But it’s not just bombers who benefit here. Accuracy and consistent positioning also play a role, especially with water lurking on several holes. Interestingly, each of the past four winners at TPC Craig Ranch finished the week ranked 23rd or better in SG: Off the Tee among the field. That tells us that while this isn’t a brutal driving test, gaining strokes off the tee is a key ingredient for winning. Whether through length, accuracy, or both, players need to be in control with the driver to contend.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rico Hoey
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Keith Mitchell
Isaiah Salinda
Kevin Yu
Taylor Pendrith
Scottie Scheffler
Jesper Svensson
Joseph Bramlett
Kurt Kitayama
Strokes Gained: Approach
TPC Craig Ranch is a second-shot golf course, and iron play is one of the most predictive stats for success here. In fact, three of the past four winners ranked inside the top 8 in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week, showing just how important precise iron play is. With large greens and favorable scoring conditions, hitting it close gives players the best chance to convert birdie opportunities. Those who are consistently dialed in with their mid-to-long irons tend to separate themselves over four rounds.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Henrik Norlander
Sami Valimaki
Scottie Scheffler
Will Zalatoris
Stephan Jaeger
Rico Hoey
John Pak
Jackson Suber
Nicolai Hojgaard
Kevin Yu
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The greens at TPC Craig Ranch are pure Bentgrass, cut to .100″, and generally run at a medium-to-fast speed. While the putting surfaces are large, players who roll it well on Bentgrass will have a significant edge, especially in a low-scoring shootout where missing birdie chances can quickly put you behind. Historically, strong Bentgrass putters have shown a positive correlation with top finishes at this event.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Mackenzie Hughes
Harry Hall
Brian Campbell
Pierceson Coody
Vince Whaley
Kevin Kisner
Kevin Tway
Kris Ventura
Sam Burns
Ben Silverman
Driving Distance Gained
While accuracy off the tee is helpful, TPC Craig Ranch tends to favor players with distance more than precision. The fairways are relatively wide, and players who can drive it long will set themselves up for shorter approach shots into greens — a major edge when you need to rack up birdies. The course plays over 7,500 yards, so length can be a real asset.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Aldrich Potgieter
Christo Lamprecht
Brandon Matthews
Tim Widing
Jesper Svensson
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Alejandro Tosti
Rasmus Hojgaard
Chirs Gotterup
Pierceson Coody
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
Two of the four par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch fall within the 200-225 yard range.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Griffin
Seamus Power
Brian Campbell
Sam Ryder
Michael Thorbjornsen
Ryan Gerard
Matthew McCarty
Aldrich Potgieter
Takumi Kanaya
Mac Meissner
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
TPC Craig Ranch features five par 4s in the 450-500 yard range, which will test players with both length and accuracy. These are among the tougher holes on the course, so gaining strokes here can lead to a significant advantage over four rounds.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Brian Campbell
Alex Smalley
Joel Dahmen
Keith Mitchell
Justin Lower
Chad Ramey
Sam Ryder
Matt Kuchar
Pierceson Coody
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Two of the three par 5s fall between 550-600 yards, which are reachable for the longer hitters and offer prime scoring chances. Converting birdies — or even eagles — on these holes is often a requirement to stay competitive in a tournament that regularly sees winning scores of -23 or better.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Riley
Jesper Svensson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Jordan Spieth
Nicolai Hojgaard
Cameron Davis
Adam Schenk
Victor Perez
Pierceson Coody
Dylan Wu
Birdies or Better Gained
With the last five winners all finishing -23 or better, it’s clear that scoring is paramount at TPC Craig Ranch. Players need to capitalize on the gettable holes and avoid settling for too many pars. Those who gain the most strokes through birdies (or better) tend to rise up the leaderboard in this type of shootout environment.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Jacob Bridgeman
Danny Walker
Jesper Svensson
Stephan Jaeger
Scottie Scheffler
Taylor Moore
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Cameron Davis
Ryan Gerard
Jordan Spieth
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
DataGolf’s approach distribution shows a disproportionately high number of approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch come from 200+ yards out.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Erik Van Rooyen
Charley Hoffman
Thorbjorn Olesen
Rikuya Hoshino
Kris Ventura
Ryan Gerard
Jackson Suber
Brandon Matthews
Joel Dahmen
Kurt Kitayama
Course History & Comparable Courses
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at TPC Craig Ranch hasn’t proven to be extremly advantageous. However, we have seen multiple players in the past few years win twice at this course including Jason Day, K.H. Lee, and Sergio Garcia.
Leaders in this category:
Jordan Spieth
Stephan Jaeger
Scottie Scheffler
Sung Kang
Ryan Palmer
Si Woo Kim
Byeong Hun An
Davis Riley
Matt Kuchar
Joseph Bramlett
The Field:
The 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson will feature a field of 156 players, with just two of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winner – U.S. Open
Winner – PGA Championship
Winner – THE PLAYERS Championship
Winner – Tournament Winner in the Past Year
Career Money Exemption
Sponsor Exemption: DPWT
Sponsor’s Exemption – PGA
Sponsor’s Exemption – Unrestricted
Sponsor’s Exemption – PGA
PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year.
Open Qualifying
Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Major Medical Extension.
Leading Points Winner from DP World Tour
PGA TOUR University #1 – Prior Season
Leading 10 players (not otherwise exempt) on DP World Tour
Players 2-30 on the Prior Season Korn Ferry Tour Points List
Top 5 Finishers and Ties from PGA TOUR Q-School
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Taylor Pendrith (2024), Sung Kang (2019)
Debutants in the Field:
Aldrich Potgieter, Braden Thornberry, Christo Lamprecht, Cristobal Del Solar, Danny Walker, Frankie Capan III, Gabe Reynolds, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Suber, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, John Pak, Kaito Onishi, Karl Vilips, Kevin Velo, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Matthew Riedel, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nicolai Hojgaard, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Kent, Paul Peterson, Paul Waring, Philip Knowles, Rasmus Hojgaard, Ricky Castillo, Rikuya Hoshino, Seungbin Choi, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Thomas Rosenmueller, Tim Widing, Tommy Morrison, Victor Perez, Vince Covello, Will Chandler, William Mouw
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23)
Price: 90-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Taylor Pendrith
6th
4th
38th
3rd
14th
2023: Jason Day (-23)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jason Day
12th
1st
3rd
31st
28th
2022: K.H. Lee (-26)
Price: 125-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
K.H. Lee
20th
5th
8th
10th
13th
2021: K.H. Lee (-25)
Price: 200-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
K.H. Lee
23rd
2nd
2nd
24th
9th
2019: Sung Kang (-23)
Price: 125-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sung Kang
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Taylor Pendrith
T11 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T11 – Corales Puntacana Championship (PGA)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T36 – Texas Children’s Houston Open (PGA)
MC – Valspar Championship (PGA)
2023: Jason Day
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T39 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
T5 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T10 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2022: K.H. Lee
T25 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – The Masters (PGA)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
2021: K.H. Lee
T58 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T29 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T23 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T56 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T23 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2019: Sung Kang
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T42 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T18 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T47 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Taylor Pendrith
Tournament Debut
2023: Jason Day
2022
2021
2017
2013
2012
2011
2010
Jason Day
T51
MC
2
T27
T9
5
WON
2022: K.H. Lee
2021
2019
K.H. Lee
WON
MDF
2021: K.H. Lee
2019
K.H. Lee
MDF
2019: Sung Kang
2018
2017
2016
2012
2011
Sung Kang
T42
T20
T34
MC
MC
Picks:
Outrights
Jordan Spieth (+1800) – DraftKings
Stephan Jaeger (+4500) – FanDuel
Jake Knapp (+5500) – FanDuel
Ryan Gerard (+6000) – FanDuel
Sami Valimaki (+11000) – FanDuel
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The Cubs and Pirates are set to face off tonight at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The game starts at 6:40 PM ET (3:40 PM MST). Here’s a detailed preview:
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) with a 3.18 ERA vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates) with a stellar 1.72 ERA.
Team Records: Cubs are 17-12 overall, 8-5 on the road; Pirates are 11-18 overall, 6-7 at home.
Offensive Highlights: Kyle Tucker leads the Cubs with a .289 batting average, 7 home runs, and 25 RBIs. Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting .286 with 5 home runs and 19 RBIs. For the Pirates, Oneil Cruz has 8 home runs and 16 RBIs, while Andrew McCutchen is hitting .276.
Recent Trends: Cubs have won 10 of 14 games as favorites this season, while the Pirates have struggled as underdogs, winning only 6 of 18 games.
Weather Concerns: There’s a chance of rain and thunderstorms later in the evening, which could impact the game.
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) has a 3.18 ERA this season, while Andrew Heaney (Pirates) boasts an impressive 1.72 ERA.
Team Records: The Cubs are 17-12 overall and 8-5 on the road. The Pirates are 11-18 overall and 6-7 at home.
Offensive Highlights: Kyle Tucker leads the Cubs with a .289 batting average, 7 home runs, and 25 RBIs. Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting .286 with 5 home runs and 19 RBIs. For the Pirates, Oneil Cruz has 8 home runs and 16 RBIs, while Andrew McCutchen is hitting .276.
Recent Trends: The Cubs have won 10 of 14 games as favorites this season, while the Pirates have struggled as underdogs, winning only 6 of 18 games.
Prediction: Cubs Ace Shota Imanaga is boasting a solid 3.2 ERA. His FIP could be better, but if you looked at the teams that he has pitched against, all is understood. Andrew Heaney is at the helm for the Pirates who has been great this year with a 1.72 ERA, but this is more of the exception than the norm as he finished the last two years over 4.25. The Cubs have the better bats than the Pirates, but I am not so sure that the Bullpen holds up. The Cubs have lost two games in a row to the Phillies, and I think after a day’s rest, this team bounces back at least for half the game.
Game Details: The game starts at 9:10 PM ET (6:10 PM PT) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
Team Records:
Dodgers: 16-10 overall, with a strong home record of 10-3.
Pirates: 11-16 overall, struggling on the road with a 5-9 record
Dodgers: They are coming off a three-game losing streak and will aim to bounce back. With a strong home record of 10-3, they lead the NL in home runs this season, averaging 1.6 per game. Key players include Tommy Edman, who has eight home runs, and Freddie Freeman, who has been consistent with doubles and RBIs.
Pirates: The Pirates have struggled on the road with a 5-9 record but have shown promise in games where they score five or more runs. Oneil Cruz has been a standout performer, hitting five home runs in the last 10 games.
Pitching Matchup: The Dodgers will rely on rookie Roki Sasaki, who has shown potential despite a recent loss. The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, who has had mixed results but will look to build on a solid road trip.
Prediction:
I do not see a close game here. Sasaki is young, but he already has a decent ERA of 3.2. Mitch Keller is a journeyman that has been with the pirates for some time now. If you look at his numbers, they are not bad at around a 4.0 ERA, but for some reason when he plays the Dodgers, his ERA jumps to over 7.5. The Dodgers have the better Bullpen and are the much better hitting team. I think this one isn’t close as the weather looks ok with the wind blowing out in LA.
