We have a great show for you today! Another great week of football is in the books and now it’s time to recap. We talk about the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend as well as some betting spots. Kiev gives out an early Best Bet for college football. Dave comes on and the guys get into some fantasy football with byes, injuries, waivers, sleepers, and busts. If you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Advantage: Auburn by a wide margin — biggest mismatch of the game.
QB Data
Auburn QB
Completion: 66.7%
EPA/dropback: +0.18
Explosive Pass Rate: 17%
Scramble EPA: +0.32
Southern Miss QB
Completion: 54.8%
EPA/dropback: ‑0.05
Explosive Pass Rate: 9%
Turnover‑worthy plays: 3
Advantage: Auburn — significantly more stable and efficient.
Drive Efficiency
Metric
Auburn
Southern Miss
Points per Drive
2.48
1.62
TD Rate
38%
24%
3‑and‑Out Rate
21%
33%
Average Starting Field Position
Own 32
Own 28
🧠 Tactical Breakdown
Why Auburn Controls the Game
Massive OL advantage → consistent 5–7 yard runs
QB run game stresses USM’s linebackers
Auburn’s defense creates drive‑killing pressure
USM’s offense struggles on 3rd‑and‑long
How Southern Miss Stays Competitive
Havoc plays: TFLs, tipped passes, strip attempts
Special teams can flip field position
Auburn’s passing inconsistency on early downs
Forcing Auburn into 3–4 stalled drives
📈 Prediction (With Game Data Integrated)
Southern Miss vs Auburn -33.5 O/U 56.5
Looking at last week’s game that Auburn had against Baylor didn’t really tell the whole story. Both teams played fast with Auburn at a blazing 21 seconds between plays.
Last week Southern Miss got to play a tomato can, but they also played fast even in a blowout ranking 8th in seconds per play.
Gonna be a warm day in Auburn this weekend at 82 degrees with 0 wind and rainl
We all know that coach Alex Golesh likes to play fast. Southern Miss is looking like an up tempo team as well.
I expect points out of this game. Auburn should put up 40+ while Southern Miss’s coach Blake Anderson knows how to speed up the tempo from his Arkansas State and Utah State days.
Over 56.5 – 2 stars
Arkansas vs Utah -12.5 O/U 54.5
🏟️ Game Information
Date: September 12, 2026
Time: 10:15 PM ET
Location: Rice‑Eccles Stadium (Salt Lake City)
TV: ESPN
Line: Utah ‑12.5, Total 55.5
Series: First meeting between the programs
📊 Team Game Data (Week 1)
🐗 Arkansas Razorbacks (1–0)
Score: Arkansas 31, North Alabama 14
Passing: KJ Jackson — 24/35, 267 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Braylen Russell — 17 carries, 49 yards, 1 TD
Red Zone: 5/6 scoring trips (elite finishing)
Total Yards: (from combined game data) 400+
Key Notes:
Jackson has 599 passing yards over his last three games, showing upward trajectory.
Offensive line struggled to generate push vs an FCS front — a concern vs Utah’s defensive front.
Weakness: OL push rate concerns; struggled vs North Alabama’s front.
Drive Finishing: Elite — 83% red‑zone scoring.
FPI Win Probability: Arkansas only 18.2% to win at Utah.
Utah Advanced Metrics
EPA/Play (inferred from dominance): High — 666 yards on 66 points suggests top‑tier efficiency.
Explosive Rate: Extremely high — 10 straight games with 438+ yards.
QB Efficiency: Dampier 72.2% completion, 3 TD, no turnovers.
Run Game: Parker’s recent production indicates elite rushing EPA.
ATS History: Utah finished last season 9–4 ATS, strong indicator of market undervaluation.
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
Where Utah Has the Edge
Trenches: Utah’s OL vs Arkansas’ DL is a mismatch; Arkansas’ OL vs Utah’s DL is an even bigger mismatch.
QB Stability: Dampier is more efficient and turnover‑averse.
Explosiveness: Utah generates chunk plays at a top‑10 national rate.
Home Field: Rice‑Eccles is one of the most underrated atmospheres in CFB.
Where Arkansas Can Compete
Passing Attack: KJ Jackson is heating up — 267 yards and 3 TD in Week 1.
Receiver Depth: Multiple WRs scored in Week 1; Arkansas can stress Utah vertically.
Turnover Leverage: Utah’s offense is explosive but occasionally loose with ball security (inferred from pace).
🧠 Game Script Expectation
Utah starts fast — their offense has opened games aggressively under Scalley.
Arkansas tries to slow pace and rely on Jackson’s arm.
Utah’s run game eventually wears down Arkansas’ front.
Arkansas needs +2 turnover margin to stay within one score.
🧮 Prediction
I find it funny that the market doesn’t know how to price this game.
Arkansas is in a big transition year with a new coaching staff and a new QB in KJ Jackson who didn’t look that good last week against a very small Northern Alabama FCS school.
Utah took care of business against their own step child, yet they at last blew them out.
For Utah, there is more continuity as coach Morgan Scalley comes in from defensive coordinator. QB Devin Dampier is back and did a great job last season as they should have represented Tech’s opponent in the big 12 championship game
I think this is more of a statement game for Utah at home here as the Hogs should not be able to keep up with this offense and score against this defense.
This being a night game at Rice Eccles stadium in Salt Lake City complicates this even more for the Hogs. Gonna lay the points.
Oct 26, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of Minnesota Golden Gophers helmet before a game against the Maryland Terrapins at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Week 2 is here and we are fully back in the chaos. The slate is loaded, my couch is already warming up, and I’m mentally prepared to stare at a TV for 14 straight hours like it’s my full‑time job. We’re kicking things off early, too — because nothing says “responsible adult” like football before lunch. So let’s lock in, fire up the picks, and try to win back at least some of the money we’re about to spend on beer. Time to get in gear and embrace the degeneracy.
Army Golden Knights vs South Florida Bulls
Location: Michie Stadium, West Point, NY Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026 Time: 12:00 PM ET Channel: CBS Sports Network (CBSSN) Opening Line: Army -1.5 Current Line: Army -3.5
Analysis
It’s a long haul from Tampa to West Point, and if this matchup were being played in November, this number would be flirting with double digits. But in early September, I’m more than comfortable laying 3.5 with the Knights. I’m genuinely concerned about what USF is going to be this season. They were outgained last week in a win over FIU, and Michael Van Buren managed just 100 passing yards. This Bulls offense hasn’t found an identity yet — and that’s a dangerous place to be when you’re facing a team as structurally sound as Army.
We know exactly what we’re getting from the Knights: discipline, ball control, and a scheme that punishes defenses who don’t stay assignment‑sound. And I don’t believe this USF coaching staff has any real plan for defending the triple option. It is going to be a long day for this coaching staff as they get their first look at a real triple option offense.
Let’s fade the southern boys.
Pick: Army -3.5
Game 2: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
Location: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026 Time: 3:30 PM ET Channel: CBS Opening Line: Minnesota -2.5 Current Line: Mississippi State -1.5
Analysis
Mississippi State blows out the worst team in the Sun Belt and suddenly they’re laying points on the road. Fine by me — I had this matchup circled back in the offseason, and now I get Minnesota as a home dog. Kamario Taylor is an absolute stud, and Fluff Bothwell has one of the best names in college football, but let’s be honest: in two years under Jeff Lebby, the Bulldogs have exactly one road win against a Power Five opponent. Minnesota has the personnel to slow down this Bulldogs attack, and don’t sleep on Drake Lindsey and Darius Taylor — those two can flip a game in a hurry. Row the Boat, baby.
Pick: Minnesota (+1.5)
Game 3: Delaware Blue Hens vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026 Time: 4:15 PM ET Channel: SEC Network Opening Line: Vanderbilt -23.5 Current Line: Vanderbilt – 21.5
Analysis:
Aside from last season, whenever Vanderbilt faces Group of Five opponents, they slow the game down, hold the ball, and do just enough to escape — and sometimes they don’t escape at all. Just two years ago they lost to a bad Georgia State team and barely squeaked past Ball State 24–10. Last week against FCS Austin Peay, they held the ball for 35 minutes, rotated two quarterbacks, and still managed only 28 points. That’s who they are: methodical, conservative, and rarely explosive.
I’d expect the exact same game plan this week. Vandy will try to shorten the game, bleed the clock, and grind out a win. And I do think Nick Miniccuci and this Blue Hens offense can move the ball a bit against Vanderbilt’s defense. We don’t need much to cover a three‑touchdown spread against a slow, methodical Commodores team that isn’t built to blow anyone out. Delaware should be good for a couple of scores, and that alone makes this number too high for a team that almost never wins comfortably.
Both teams opened 2026 by detonating overmatched FCS opponents, so the real signal comes from returning production, efficiency, and last year’s meeting.
Returning Starters — Missouri brings back 12; Kansas also brings back 12. Personnel continuity is nearly identical.
Last Year’s Result — Missouri won 42–31, but that was at home and with more returning talent than they have now.
Spread History — Kansas is 6–0 ATS as a home underdog since 2023, with a +12.6 spread differential.
Venue Shift — This year’s game is in Lawrence, where Kansas has covered +5.5 in 17 of their last 20 home games.
Kansas Defense: 146 YPG allowed (12th FBS), including 35 rush YPG — elite early run-stopping.
Missouri Defense: 198 YPG allowed (30th FBS), solid but less suffocating.
Third‑Down & Red Zone
Third Down: KU 61.5% (19th), Mizzou 60% (20th).
Red Zone: Both teams 100% scoring — elite finishing.
🔍 Tactical Keys
Why Missouri Can Win
Simmons is hyper‑efficient and distributes well.
Missouri’s OL kept him clean and should again.
Kansas must prove it can handle an accurate passer with tempo.
Why Kansas Can Win
Defensive pressure will test Simmons more than UAPB did.
Kansas’ run defense is legitimately nasty.
Marshall’s vertical passing (eight 15+ yard completions last week) gives KU real punch.
📈 Betting & Prediction
It’s a bit early for stats, but I think that the over here is a good look.
Kansas and coach Lance Leipold got their offensive coordinator back in Andy Kotelnicki. (why are these names so hard?)
These two working together have accounted for a lot of points.
Both teams play an above average pace.
Both defenses took some big hits losing players in the offseason. I think this is a fun game to watch that will creep over the total. I will buy the half point just in case.
We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from @Vsinlive and The Bear Bets Podcast is back to break down a MASSIVE NFL Week 1. First, Kiev talks about the Patriots/Seahawks game. Next, Will comes on and the boys get right into more recap adding the disappointing Rams performance. Then, we talk some preseason overreactions. After that, the guys get into thefull NFL slate of games with some best bets! Next, will and Kiev give out a few Beer Bet Bangers that could hit for some nice plus money! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money moves and recaps out plays. If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
USE PROMO CODE FOOTBALL26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE FOR THE 2026/2027 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires January 31st 2027
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards is back to break down a HUGE week 2 of college football. First, Kiev talks about some of the Circa Sports contests as well as what’s on the agenda for the show. Next, Brian comes on and the boys get right into more overreactions. Then, we talk some buy low/sell high for teams over the next few weeks. After that, the guys get into their 6 pack of best bets! Next, we talk some random games for the week. Finally, Brian and Kiev give out a few Beer Bet Bangers that could hit for some nice plus money! If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
