College Football Week 10 Saturday Super Plays – West Virginia vs Texas Tech – Georgia vs Ole Miss
West Virginia vs Texas Tech -16.5 O/U 65.5
🏈 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
📍 Location: Jones AT&T Stadium (Lubbock, TX)
📅 Big 12 Showdown
📺 ESPN
🔥 Game Snapshot
This matchup features two teams headed in opposite directions analytically.
🔴 Texas Tech (7-1) enters as one of the Big 12’s most efficient teams, ranking 25th nationally in Adjusted EPA/Play (+0.17) and owning a 77% win probability according to Game on Paper’s model.
🟡 West Virginia (5-3) has struggled defensively despite a productive offense, ranking just 77th in Adjusted EPA/Play (-0.03) and carrying one of the worst defensive efficiency profiles in FBS.
📊 Advanced Metrics Edge
| Metric | West Virginia | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Adj EPA/Play | -0.03 (#77) | +0.17 (#25) |
| Net EPA/Play | -0.08 (#102) | +0.10 (#31) |
| Success Rate Margin | -6.8% (#128) | +4.8% (#29) |
| Yards/Play Margin | -1.47 (#121) | +0.51 (#43) |
What it means:
✅ Texas Tech consistently wins downs.
✅ Texas Tech generates explosive plays while limiting them defensively.
❌ West Virginia allows offenses to stay on schedule far too often.
⚔️ When West Virginia Has The Ball
⭐ QB Michael Hawkins Jr.
- 1,443 passing yards
- 824 rushing yards
- 23 total TDs
- 0.18 EPA/dropback
- 0.36 EPA/rush
Hawkins is the engine of the Mountaineer offense and creates problems with designed QB runs.
Key Matchup
🏃 WVU rushing attack vs. Texas Tech front seven.
Texas Tech’s defense ranks:
- Top 20 nationally against the run by EPA allowed (-0.09 EPA/Rush)
- Allows opponents just 42.2% Available Yards Rate
👉 If Texas Tech forces Hawkins into obvious passing situations, the Red Raiders gain a huge advantage.
⚔️ When Texas Tech Has The Ball
⭐ RB J’Koby Williams
- 723 rushing yards
- 0.15 EPA/Rush
- 5 TDs
⭐ WR Kenny Johnson
- 53 catches
- 472 yards
- 0.56 EPA per target
The biggest concern for WVU:
🚨 Their defense ranks near the bottom of FBS in several categories:
- Defensive Success Rate: #130
- Pass Success Defense: #136
- Defensive EPA/Drive: #131
Texas Tech doesn’t need to be explosive every snap. Sustained drives should be enough against a Mountaineer defense that struggles to get off the field.
📈 Recent Form
West Virginia
✅ W vs TCU
✅ W vs Cincinnati
❌ L vs Arizona
❌ L vs Iowa State
❌ L vs Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
✅ W vs Arizona
❌ L at Cincinnati
✅ W vs Arizona State
✅ W at Colorado
✅ W vs Sam Houston
🔑 Three Keys To The Game
1️⃣ Contain Hawkins
If Texas Tech keeps WVU under 200 rushing yards, the Mountaineers could be in trouble.
2️⃣ Win Early Downs
Texas Tech owns a top-40 Early Down EPA profile while WVU’s defense ranks near the bottom nationally.
3️⃣ Red Zone Efficiency
West Virginia can move the ball, but settling for field goals won’t keep pace with a Red Raider offense that’s been efficient all season.
🎯 X-Factor
⚡ Michael Hawkins Jr.
He’s the best athlete on the field and can erase bad plays with his legs. If he turns broken plays into explosive gains, WVU can keep this game competitive.
🏆 Prediction
- If there is a flat spot on Tech’s schedule, it is probably this week.
- The Red Raiders are in a bit of a let down spot after a huge comeback win against Arizona.
- Looking at the numbers, this Tech team isn’t what we were used to seeing last year. They already had to make a quarterback change to Tommy Castellanos, and he is throwing at a dismal 48.2% completion this year.
- The Raiders are not just in a let down spot, they also have a solid Oklahoma State team on tech.
- What we know about West Virginia is that they can run the ball quite well at 4.81 yards per rush. Tech’s defense only ranks 28th in opponent rush EPA.
- Another big thing to me is that the Mountaineers are coming off of the bye. They have won two games in a row against Cincinnati and TCU. I think they keep this within two TDs.
West Virginia +16.5 – 2 stars
🏈 #2 Georgia Bulldogs vs #12 Ole Miss Rebels Preview
📍 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
📺 ABC
🔥 One of the biggest games of the SEC season.
This matchup is fascinating because the betting market likes Georgia, but several advanced-metric models see this game as much closer than the rankings suggest. Georgia enters 7-1, while Ole Miss sits 6-2 and has already proven it can beat elite competition.
📊 Advanced Metrics Snapshot
| Metric | Georgia | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPA/Play | +0.21 (#20) | +0.20 (#22) |
| Success Rate Margin | +9.8% (#8) | +5.7% (#24) |
| Yards/Play Margin | +2.54 (#2) | +0.47 (#44) |
| Offensive Success Rate | 49.7% (#15) | 48.5% (#25) |
| Defensive Success Rate | 40.0% (#24) | 42%+ (middle tier) |
What it Means 🧠
✅ Georgia has been the more dominant team statistically.
✅ The Bulldogs rank#2 nationally in yards-per-play margin and own one of the nation’s most efficient offenses.
⚠️ Ole Miss is closer than the rankings indicate, especially offensively, where QB Trinidad Chambliss has become one of the SEC’s most dangerous playmakers.
⚔️ When Georgia Has The Ball
⭐ QB Gunner Stockton
- 1,366+ passing yards
- 14 TDs
- 0.30 EPA/dropback
⭐ RB Dwight Phillips Jr.
- 0.18 EPA/rush
- Key piece of Georgia’s balanced attack
⭐ WR Talyn Taylor
- 0.73 EPA per catch opportunity
Georgia’s offense has been incredibly efficient:
🏃 200 rushing yards per game
🎯 251 passing yards per game
🔥 41.0 points per game
Key Matchup
🐶 Georgia run game vs Rebel front seven.
Ole Miss has been vulnerable defensively, allowing:
- 24.0 points per game
- 384 yards per game
- 0.11 PPA allowed per play
If Georgia establishes the run early, the Bulldogs can control tempo and keep the Rebel offense watching from the sideline.
⚔️ When Ole Miss Has The Ball
⭐ QB Trinidad Chambliss
One of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country:
- 1,940+ passing yards
- 16 TD passes
- 6 rushing TDs
- 0.17 EPA/dropback
⭐ WR Deuce Alexander
- 63 receptions
- 624 receiving yards
- 0.54 EPA/play
Why Georgia Fans Should Be Nervous 😬
The Bulldogs were just exposed by Auburn’s quarterback run game in their recent upset loss. Ole Miss features another dual-threat QB capable of creating similar problems.Georgia’s defense ranks well nationally, but Chambliss stresses defenses with both his arm and legs.
📈 Recent Form
Georgia
✅ Florida 27-8
❌ Auburn 27-24
✅ Alabama 20-17
✅ Vanderbilt 38-14
✅ Oklahoma 41-13
Ole Miss
✅ Auburn 45-15
❌ Texas 34-27
✅ Missouri 31-3
✅ Vanderbilt 52-17
❌ Florida 52-28
🔑 Three Keys To The Game
1️⃣ Contain Chambliss
If Ole Miss gets explosive QB runs, Georgia’s defense could have another long night.
2️⃣ Georgia’s Third-Down Dominance
Georgia converts 56.3% of third and fourth downs, one of the best marks in the nation.
3️⃣ Win The Possession Battle
Ole Miss wants tempo 🚀
Georgia wants long, physical drives 🐶
Whichever team dictates pace gains a huge edge.
💥 X-Factor
⭐ Gunner Stockton
Ole Miss will devote resources to stopping Georgia’s rushing attack.
If Stockton wins downfield with play-action, Georgia can turn a close game into a two-score lead quickly.
📊 Prediction
Georgia vs Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 56.5
- What did Ole Miss do to become a dog like this at home against Georgia?
- I get it. Ole Miss doesn’t have a good rush Defense ranking 67th in opponent yards per rush while Georgia ranks 4th in yards per rush.
- This is all true, but Ole Miss tends to tighten up at the goal line ranking 35th in Red zone scoring percentage to Georgia ranking 101st.
- Ole Miss has had a much harder schedule than Georgia ranking 4th in Sagarin to Georgia’s ranking 39th. Georgia has one top 20 win at Alabama where the refs clearly missed a terrible pass interference penalty.
- If Ole Miss has something, it is a great passing game under Trinidad Chambliss ranking 19th in success rate and 27th in EPA against teams like LSU, Texas, Missouri, Louisville, and at Florida. This make the backdoor wide open to keep this game close.
- I think that even though this is a so called revenge spot for Georgia, Ole Miss knows that their playoff hopes lie on this game. They will bring it and make it close if not win it outright.
Ole Miss +3.5 – 2 stars
NFL Week 9 Sharp Money Movement
As Of Thursday 11/5. The most prominent sharp sides and totals in the NFL
Sharp Sides:
- Falcons +4.5 to +3 hosting the Bengals – 60% tickets and 65% of the money.
- Lions -6.5 to -7 at the Dolphins – 81% tickets and 85% of the money.
- Texans -4 to -6 at the Chargers – 64% tickets and 70% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Lions vs Dolphins over 47.5 to 50.5 – 52% tickets and 76% of the money.
- Jets vs Chiefs over 41.5 to 47.5 – 58% tickets and 68% of the money.
- Texans vs Chargers under 43.5 to 40.5 – 32% tickets and 48% of the money.
- Bills vs Vikings under 48.5 to 44.5 – 42% tickets and 52% of the money
Andrew’s Week 10 College Football Best Bets
🍺 Weekly Recap
Not too shabby — I managed to sneak out a 2–1 week, pushing Best Bets to a shiny 14–6–1. I absolutely got bamboozled by Illinois rolling out Katin Houser; I thought he was cooked for sure. Even with that curveball, Maryland had every chance to cover. The fired‑coach bump was there… just not quite enough to drag us over the number. A half‑point short — the gambler’s allergy.
As much as that loss stings, Wake Forest was a rocking‑chair winner yet again. Five straight covers, all of them sweat‑free. If you want to get rich, wake up and bet the Deacs — it’s practically a savings account at this point.
I didn’t catch much of the Lobos game because I still have no idea what in the hell Mountain West+ is supposed to be, but that was the perfect spot to fade UNM. They’re a great story, but it’s hard to imagine them covering many double‑digit spreads going forward. That team is built to win, not blow people out.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Kansas State Wildcats (4-4, 3-4-1 ATS)
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Date: Saturday, November 7th, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Channel: TNT
Opening Line: -5.5
Current Line: -6.5
Analysis: The Cowboys’ Big 12 title hopes took a huge hit last week when they fell on the road to Iowa State, but I still think Oklahoma State has some juice left in the tank. One thing I know for sure: this offense travels. They can move the ball anywhere, and they’ve proven it repeatedly.
Kansas State, on the other hand, has dropped four of their last five and will once again be without starting quarterback Avery Johnson. Nothing about this offense suggests things are suddenly going to turn around for the Wildcats. They’re banged up, they’re inconsistent, and they’re leaning on a backup in a matchup where they need every edge they can get.
The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor, and with this line sitting just under the key number of seven, I’ll happily take future first‑round pick Drew Mestemaker laying less than a touchdown against a backup QB. Don’t expect this to be some low‑scoring slog — both teams can score — but expect the Pokes to come out on top and control this game when it matters.
Pick: Oklahoma State (-6.5) or better
Delaware Blue Hens (4–4, 5-3 ATS) at Kennesaw State Owls (2–6, 5-3 ATS)
Location: Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium — Kennesaw, GA
Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: Del -3
Current Line: Del -1.5
Analysis: Does it scare me that money is coming in on the Owls? Sure it does. And do I know why I’m out here betting Conference USA games on a Saturday? I don’t — but I can give you two words that explain everything: Nick Minicucci.
Since his return two weeks ago, this Delaware offense has been absolutely humming. There’s no debate about who the best player in CUSA is — he plays quarterback for the Blue Hens, and he’s the kind of guy who single‑handedly drags a team into shootouts. I’m a sucker for offense, and Minicucci is the exact type of quarterback you want your money behind when things get chaotic.
And in the same vein as the last game: if we’re headed for a Saturday shootout, then give me the team with the best quarterback and let’s go get this money. Kennesaw can be feisty, but Delaware has the firepower, the rhythm, and the guy under center who can actually win you a bet.
Pick: Del (-1.5) or better
Air Force Falcons (6-2, 5-3 ATS) @ Army Black Knights (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Channel: CBS
Opening Line: Army -6
Current Line: Army -4
Analysis: I don’t know how they do it, but week after week Air Force trots out a different quarterback and it’s just next man up like nothing happened. They lose a starter, plug in another guy, and the machine keeps humming. The real way to beat Air Force is through the air — you have to threaten them vertically and force them out of their comfort zone — and this week they’re facing an Army team that does almost none of that.
It’s hard to quantify what this rivalry means to the service academies. The emotion, the tradition, the physicality — it all shows up in these games, and it always tightens the margins. That’s why this number feels a little too long given the situation. Air Force fell by four last year, I think the Falcons can stay inside this number, and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if they made a real push to capture the Commander‑in‑Chief Trophy for the first time since 2022. Army will scrap, but Air Force has the better roster, the steadier identity, and the kind of resilience that travels.
For more betting information from follow me @BetAndrewClarke on X
College Football Week 10 Sharp Money Movement
As of Wednesday 11/4/26 – Fiver of the most prominent sharp movements:
Sharp Sides:
- Illinois +6 to +4.5 hosting Nebraska – 50% tickets and 78% of the money.
- Nevada +12.5 to +9.5 hosting New Mexico – 60% tickets and 83% of the money.
- Tennessee -5 to -6.5 hosting Kentucky – 17% tickets and 63% of the money.
- Notre Dame -4.5 to -7 hosting Miami – 12% tickets and 31% of the money.
- Ohio State -6.5 to -7.5 hosting Oregon – 41% tickets and 46% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Tulsa vs Tulane over 48.5 to 50.5 – 53% tickets and 64% of the money.
- UCLA vs Minnesota under 42.5 to 39.5 – 23% tickets and 34% of the money.
- Duke vs NC State over 49.5 to 51.5 – 51% tickets and 77% of the money.
- Marshall vs Georgia Southern over 53.5 to 54.5 – 23% tickets and 40% of the money.
- Texas State vs Oregon State over 66.5 to 71.5 – 29% tickets and 55% of the money.
Podcast 881 – 105 – 26 – With Shawn Knoche – NFL week 9 Best Bets – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche from @TheOddsBreakers is back to break down a great NFL Week 9. First, Kiev talks the early trends of teams that cover, don’t cover and totals. Next, Shawn comes on and the guys get right into NFL injuries. Then, the guys talk some buy low/sell high for some future value in the marketplace. After that, Shawn and Kiev cover the NFL slate of games with some best bets! Then we give out a few Beer Bet Bangers to multiply some beer money with some plus money bets. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money moves and recaps out plays. If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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This episode is presented by Kalshi, the prediction market for sports, news and more.
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You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Video Prop – Jaguars vs Ravens
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
55% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals
2025/2026 College Basketball 180–161-3 up 9.2U
2025/2026 NFL 149-124-2 +10.6 units
2025 UFC up 5.1 units
2025/2026 College Football 54.3% 143-120 up 19.3 units.
NFL 2023 56% 139-109-5 up 22 units.
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
63% FOR 2025 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 20 UNITS!
Podcast 880 – 104 – 26 – With Connor Mac – College Football Week 10 Best Bets – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Connor Mac @ConnorMacBets comes on to break down some college football week 10. First, Kiev talks about NCAAF betting trends and where teams are at. Who is covering, who isn’t? Who is hitting totals? Next, Connor comes on and the boys get right into the committee and the mess that they make without care. Then, the guys talk buy low/sell high for teams over the next few weeks that may have some value to bet on or to fade. After that, the guys get into their 6 pack of Free Plays & a Best Bets! Next, we talk some random fun games for the week. Finally, Connor and Kiev give out a beer bet banger that could hit for some nice plus money! If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026
This episode is presented by Kalshi, the prediction market for sports, news and more.
Try Kalshi today! Trade $25, get $25 when you sign up with code BLEAV at https://kalshi.com/r/BLEAV
@BleavNetwork
Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel: https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks
Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel: https://t.me/KievONeil
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
NFL Week 9 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:
- The Broncos could sell out at the Panthers after the big Chiefs win.
- The Lions might be soft at Miami after knocking down the Vikings.
- The Buccaneers might be too happy in Chicago after the big division Falcons win.
- The Bills might mail it in at Vikings after the big Ravens win.
Get Up Spots:
- The Eagles need to wake up hosting the Giants.
- The Dolphins might keep fighting hosting the Lions.
- The Falcons need to be relevant facing the Bengals.
- The Ravens might ugly the game hosting the Jaguars.
Look Ahead Spots:
- The Bengals might look past the Falcons to the Steelers.
Short Week:
- The Bears after Monday night hosting the Buccaneers.
- The Seahawks after Monday night hosting the Cardinals.
Long Week:
- The Packers after Thursday night at the Patriots.
- The Panthers after Thursday Night hosting the Broncos.
- The Texans after the bye at the Chargers.
- The Saints after the bye hosting the Browns.
- The Giants after the bye at the Eagles.
- The 49ers after the bye hosting the Raiders.
College Football Week 9 Misleading Final Scores
- Kent State out-gained Sacramento State 302-278 yet lost 31-10. A 5-1 turnover ratio flickered the Flash.
- Nebraska out-gained Washington 387 to 267 yet lost 17-10. A 3-0 turnover ratio did in the corn.
- Kansas out-gained TCU 451-286 yet lost 22-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio landed the Jayhawks.
- UCONN out-gained Air Force 368 to 366 yet lost 35-26. Equal turnovers at 0 but terrible fourth down converstions on offense and defense tired the Huskies.
- SMU out-gained Syracuse 421 to 338 yet lost 30-27, A 2-0 turnover ratio saddled the ponies.
- Florida State out-gained Clemson 415 to 351 yet lost 36-24. A 4-0 turnover ratio and terrible special teams/coaching smoked the Semis.
