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Astros vs Tigers +122 O/U 8
A Mize man once told me, when you have the data, it’s time to start fading the narratives. Was the Astros a good team? yes, but they certainly are not right now. Houston only ranks 15th in total runs this year and their pitching has taken a huge break. Casey Mize takes the helm for the Tigers at home with a 3.98 ERA but a nice 3.23 FIP. Casey isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, but he does get the batter to hit a lot of ground balls at 47.7%. I like some of his adjustments. The Astros on the other hand has Framber Valdez at the helm who has been less than steller this year with a 3.97 ERA and a 3.96 FIP. Framber is also a ground ball pitcher and will try to get this one on the road. Now the advantage in hitting goes to Houston here for sure, but I like the bullpen advantage for the Tigers ranking 14th in FIP to Houston ranking 26th. I also like the fact that this team is well rested at home. Houston is coming off of a win at the Yankees where they had to stop a sweep. I think that the Tigers coming off of a loss vs Cleveland will be more than ready for this game.
Let’s do this again! Football is a game of inches, and by being off just one, could be the difference between a win and a loss in a league with limited games. The shape of the football itself creates it’s own sort of randomness on circumstances such as situation like field position during punts, and how the ball spins during field goals. There is also a certain amount of randomness of “when” the points are scored that pertains to a team’s final win record. Let’s face it, there is a good amount of luck that happens within the football season the best teams do not always win against the worst teams. We can just go back to October 22nd last year when the Patriots beat the Bills 29-25. What the heck happened?
Many of us NFL football analysts and sports bettors want to have good methods for prediction for next year’s football season in order to be more accurate. Wins and losses do not tell the whole story and they are also rarely a good indicator by itself for a team’s future success. If we find some scientific methods that will correlate well using a team’s past performances to their success in the future, it will help us become not only more knowledgeable, but it could also help us become more profitable. The method that we will be discussing today is the 2023 Pythagorean win total calculation as a method to help predict the 2024 football season results.
Is it possible for an NFL team to score more points than they give up, and have a losing record? How about score less points than they allow, and have a winning record? The answer to that is that it is very possible. This happens every year. In 2019 the Houston Texas scored 378 total points, yet gave up 399 to win 10 games. In that same year, the Chargers scored 337 points while only giving up 345 (almost 50/50) and only won only 5 games.
Sometimes teams score many of their points during blowouts, and as luck will have it, those same teams might lose their close games. Due to these discrepancies, we need to formulate the data to find out what some of these teams were expected to do based on points scored compared to their actual win/loss results. Using a function that takes a look at the total points scored as a data point with the total points allowed is, at many times, a better indicator of a team’s future success compared to their actual record. This is why we can use a Pythagorean win total compilation to compare what was expected to happen based on points scored for all of the NFL teams, to what actually did happen in how these teams finished out their year. This way we can have a better idea on what to expect for next season. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant.
The Pythagorean theorem is a^2+b^2=c^2. It basically figures out the distance between two points of a right triangle (c), or for what we are interested in, the expected value between the relationship of sides. Please see the figure. Think of points scored as (a), and points allowed as (b) where (c) is a function of the (a and b) linear equation and we just want to know what the relationship is between a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2) to get a percentage of wins multiplied by the total games. Going by the diagram, if it is a tall and thin triangle, the team scored a lot more points compared to what they have given up, and if it is a short and long triangle, the team has given up many more points compared to what they actually have scored.
I know what you are thinking. Why can’t we just use the points scored over total points as a basis for predicting the expected outcomes? The answer to that simply is that the data would be wrong. For example, if a team scores 75% of the total points and only allowed 25% of the total points throughout the year, would we only expect that team to win just 75% of their games? Heck no. That is like averaging 30 points per game on offense and only allowing 10 points per game on defense. Even the 16-0 2007 patriots who scored 68.3% of the points averaging 36.8 on offense and giving up 17.1 on defense won many more than 12 games. The 2007 Patriots’ Pythagorean win total certainly didn’t equate to winning every game, but was at 13.76, which is much higher than the 12 and a much more relatable number to their fantastic season.
But wait, there is more! This Pythagorean equation does have it’s faults if adjustments are not made to it. This equation tends to bunch all of the teams more towards the middle when actual outcomes may deviate further away from the mean. Without getting too far into the weeds, we must make adjustments to the actual variances that happened over the years pertaining to each sport, and for this column, football itself. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept even farther by stating that each team’s exponent should be different as a function of their points scored. According to Aaron Schatz of football outsiders, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). Much of this randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck itself. The average exponent comes to 2.46.
One thing that I found that we can somewhat account for is turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Whether the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. The 49ers had the best turnover ratio of +13 while the Colts had the worst at -13. Big shocker right? Now it is well known that turnovers are worth close to about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random, but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Indianapolis is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The New England Patriots fit that bill and the Bengals have been trending positive with Joe Burrow over the last few years. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number from 4 to 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2023 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. In essence, a negative turnover ratio helps those sloppier teams with better expected wins as they punish the cleaner teams that had a high positive turnover margin with lower expected wins due to the luck factor that I have applied. Even though some teams tend to take care of the ball more doesn’t mean that there isn’t some luck to the outliers and visa versa. One thing that I will add to this is that fumble luck is much less predictable than interceptions and the 2023 Jets were an outlier here of -8 fumbles which is something that you should account for separately when predicting your 2024 numbers. Please see our chart below for our actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected win totals.
Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results from last year’s 17 game schedule with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2023 season. Here are the five outliers on each side:
Over-achievers:
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had 7.17 expected wins compared to their 10 actual wins. A -2.83 difference. They were certainly the luckiest team in the NFL for the 2023 season. This team had a lot of fourth quarter comebacks due to their opponents choking the games away. The name the Ste(a)lers are quite accurate as they were 9-2 in one score wins.
New York Giants: For as bad as this team was last year, they still should have been worse. The G-men had had only 3.94 expected wins compared to their 6 actual wins last year. A -2.06 difference. When this team played the good teams, they were literally blown away.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles had expected wins of 9.13 compared to their 11 actual wins last year. A -1.87 difference. This team started out on a rampage going 10-1 in their first 11 games yet only 1-6 in their final seven including their ugly playoff loss to Tampa Bay.
Detroit Lions: The Lions had expected wins of 10.16 compared to their 12 actual wins last year. A -1.84 difference. Even though this team seemed to overachieve, they at least were the best ATS team at 14-6 over the full NFL season including playoffs. This team was underrated from the start.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks had expected wins of 7.35 compared to their 9 actual wins last year. A -1.65 difference. Regression was the big thing last year for the Sea-Chickens and they lost ground to division rival LA Rams. New coach Mike McDonald has his work cut out for him with QB Geno Smith and a whole new system. The 3-4 defensive scheme remains the same.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks under 7.5 wins +114 (Fanduel) – 1.5 stars
Under-achievers:
LA Chargers: The Chargers had expected wins of 7.05 compared to their 5 actual wins last year. A +2.05 difference. The sad thing is that this team had a season win total of around 10 before opening kickoff sending coach Brandon Staley to the 49ers as a defensive coordinator. The Chargers went 6-11 ATS. The Bolts were 3-8 in one score games last season.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers had expected wins of 3.92 compared to their pathetic 2 actual wins last year. A +1.92 difference. This is really bad being that usually the two win team is the top under-achiever in the league. The Panthers have never led a game at the start of the fourth quarter.
Minnesota Vikings: The Queens had expected wins of 8.68 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.68 difference. My how times have changed as their expected wins were about the same as the year before yet instead of over-achieving by over 4 wins, they under-achieved by over 1. I hope everyone cashed that plus money under 8.5 with me.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals had expected wins of 5.31 compared to their 4 actual wins last year. A +1.31 difference. The Cardinals had it tough for a while without Kyler Murray. Josh Dobbs showed some life and then went quickly goes from hero to zero like he does everywhere that he lands. It is hard to predict this team for 2024.
New England Patriots: The Patriots had expected wins of 5.12 compared to 4 adjusted wins. A +1.12 difference. Maybe the most disappointing team in the league minus the Chargers. Many people expected more out of Bill Belichik, but poor drafting and terrible offensive coaches have really sunken this ship. I am still wondering how this team beat buffalo last year. The win at Pittsburgh was also a head scratcher. New Coach this year in Jared Mayo won’t move the needle much in my opinion.
In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Will Levis and Justin Fields. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2024 season, and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to talk about the NFL! Today’s topic is expected wins compared to actual wins from the data from the 2023/2024 season! How valuable has this information been over the past years? Which teams over-achieved? Which teams under-achieved? We talk about some of the top ten discrepancies in actual wins vs expected wins. We also give out a Free Play that Kiev sniffs out for a season win total that looks like it has some value. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Quail Hallow, located in Charlotte, North Carolina was founded in 1959. The course was designed by George Cobb and opened two years later. Since 2003, Quail Hallow has played host to the Wells Fargo Championship every year besides two (2017 & 2022). In 2017, Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship, and in 2022, the President’s Cup.
The Wells Fargo Championship debuted in 2003 as the Wachovia Championship. From 2009-10, the tournament was changed to the Quail Hollow Championship. After taking over the main sponsorship of the event two years prior, Wells Fargo attached its name to the event in 2011.
Most Tournament Wins:
3, Rory McIlroy (2010, 2015, 2021)
72-Hole Record:
265, Clark (2023). McIlroy’s 21-under 267 in 2015 came when par for the course was 72.
18-Hole Record:
61, McIlroy (Round 3, 2015)
Scorecard:
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18 (“Green Mile”)
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Quail Hollow Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.39
300.93
Driving Accuracy
62%
54%
GIR Percentage
66%
62%
Avg. GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.08
36.17
Scrambling Percentage
58%
55%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.68
Strokes Gained: Approach
Each of the past three winners at the Quail Hollow Club ranked 12th or betterin SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge
Corey Conners
Austin Eckroat
Shane Lowry
Akshay Bhatia
Scrambling
The Greens in Regulation Percentage at the Quail Hollow Club is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game. Each of the past four winners ranked 2nd or better in Scrambling % amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Alex Noren
Denny McCarthy
Xander Schauffele
Mackenzie Hughes
Justin Rose
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The greens at the Quail Hollow Club are Champion G12 bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis .125”. Each of the past three winners at the Quail Hollow Club ranked 3rd or betterin SG: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Nick Taylor
Brian Harman
Sahith Theegala
Billy Horschel
Russell Henley
Driving Distance
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Byeong-Hun An
Wyndham Clark
Gary Woodland
Stephan Jaeger
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 175-200 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Austin Eckroat
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Denny McCarthy
Corey Conners
Billy Horschel
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the eleven Par 4’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Viktor Hovland
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Akshay Bhatia
Kevin Tway
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
Two of the three Par 5’s at the Quail Hollow Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Alex Noren
Nick Dunlap
Mackenzie Hughes
Cameron Davis
Martin Trainer
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 175-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Eric Cole
Collin Morikawa
Will Zalatoris
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Quail Hollow Club has proven to be advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Justin Rose
Rickie Fowler
Rory McIlroy
Jason Day
Max Homa
The Field:
This year’s Wells Fargo Championship will feature a total of 69 players.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Wyndham Clark (’23), Max Homa (’22, ’19), Rory McIlroy (’21, ’15, ’10), Jason Day (’18), Brian Harman (’17), Rickie Fowler (’12), Lucas Glover (’11)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap
Injury Report:
PGA Tour Injury Report | 2024 Wells Fargo Championship
Scottie Scheffler *O* (Paternity Leave) WD Ludvig Aberg *O* (Knee) WD Will Zalatoris Q (Back) Jordan Spieth Q (Wrist) Sam Burns P (Paternity… pic.twitter.com/60k05luNRR
— Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) May 8, 2024
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
OUT: Ludvig Aberg (Knee)
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites in this week’s event.
Rory McIlroy (+650)
Xander Schauffele (+1000)
Wyndham Clark (+1400)
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
Max Homa (+2000)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score at this event has been above 269.5 two of the last three years.
To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -500)
There has not been a playoff at this event since 2016.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Quail Hollow Club
TPC Potomac
Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Matthew Fitzpatrick
2
69.38
35
2
–
–
–
Rory McIlroy
12
69.52
47
5
1
8
16
Viktor Hovland
2
69.88
43
–
3
–
–
Rickie Fowler
11
70.29
14
21
MC
4
21
Justin Thomas
5
70.39
14
–
26
–
21
Max Homa
6
70.42
8
WON
MC
WON
–
Xander Schauffele
4
70.44
2
–
14
–
72
Corey Conners
5
70.67
8
21
43
–
42
Seamus Power
6
70.77
18
MC
54
13
27
Emiliano Grillo
5
71.00
23
–
14
–
9
Brendon Todd
7
71.60
8
–
–
18
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship
Quail Hollow Club
TPC Potomac
Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
Russell Henley
6
72.89
–
41
72
MC
MC
Tom Hoge
6
72.71
–
–
MC
65
76
Kevin Tway
6
72.44
MC
MC
72
–
MC
Alexander Noren
3
72.38
MC
–
–
–
MC
Mackenzie Hughes
7
72.35
MC
9
MC
MC
59
Sepp Straka
4
72.10
MC
MC
54
MC
–
Byeong-Hun An
6
71.82
MC
–
MC
WD
63
Lee Hodges
2
71.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Lucas Glover
19
71.60
MC
MC
MC
31
MC
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
Price: 80-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Wyndham Clark
20th
1st
1st
39th
3rd
2022: Max Homa (-8)
Price: 40-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Max Homa
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
18th
9th
10th
41st
3rd
2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Max Homa (-15)
Price: 500-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Max Homa
18th
12th
12th
41st
1st
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Wyndham Clark (Quail Hollow Club)
T24 – Mexico Open (PGA)
3 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T29 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
6 – Corales Puntacana Championship (PGA)
5 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
2022: Max Homa (TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm)
T21 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T48 – The Masters (MAJ)
T35 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
T13 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T17 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
2021: Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow Club)
MC – The Masters (MAJ)
T28 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T10 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
T6 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)
2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Max Homa (Quail Hollow Club)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T42 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
T52 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
MC – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T20 – The Honda Classic (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Wyndham Clark
2021
2019
Wyndham Clark
T43
MC
2022: Max Homa
2021
2019
2017
2015
Max Homa
MC
WON
MC
T76
2021: Rory McIlroy
2019
2018
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Rory McIlroy
T8
T16
T4
WON
T8
T10
T2
MC
WON
2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Max Homa
2017
2015
Max Homa
MC
T76
Picks (Outrights):
Max Homa (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Justin Thomas (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Sahith Theegala (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Adam Scott (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Young (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Corey Conners (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Total Risk on the Wells Fargo Championship: 3.16 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Tonight in the NHL, we’re in for a thrilling lineup of two playoff games. Let’s delve into the matchups that promise excitement and highlight some intriguing player props worth your attention.
Matchups:
Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Series: Carolina Hurricanes 0 – New York Rangers 1
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Carolina Hurricanes
-115
-125
-1.5 (+210)
o5.5 (+110)
New York Rangers
-105
+105
+1.5 (-258)
u5.5 (-130)
CAR: Frederick Anderson [CONFIRMED]
NYR: Igor Shesterkin [EXPECTED]
Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Series: Colorado Avalanche 0 – Dallas Stars 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
+110
+102
+1.5 (-238)
o6.5 (-108)
Dallas Stars
-130
-122
-1.5 (+195)
u6.5 (-112)
COL: Alexandar Georgiev [CONFIRMED]
DAL: Jake Oettinger [CONFIRMED]
Picks:
Carolina Hurricanes (-120) – DraftKings
The inaugural game of the series showcased the decisive influence of special teams. Carolina failed to convert on any of their five power-play opportunities, while New York efficiently capitalized on theirs, going 2 for 2. Despite the 4-3 loss in the series opener, Carolina displayed dominance in expected goals, registering 4.44 compared to New York’s 2.18.
In addition to the special teams disparity, Frederick Anderson faced challenges in the Hurricanes’ net, recording a -1.82 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), contrasting with Igor Shesterkin’s stellar performance, boasting a +1.45 GSAx for New York.
Despite the setbacks, I anticipate Anderson bouncing back tonight, supported by a strong Hurricanes lineup. As they aim to level the series before returning to Raleigh for Game 3, expect Carolina to rally.
Player Props:
Seth Jarvis over 0.5 Points (-125) – DraftKings
Seth Jarvis has emerged as a standout performer for the Carolina Hurricanes this postseason, leading the team in points with a total of 8 (comprising 4 goals and 4 assists). His contributions have been well-balanced, with five points scored at even strength and three on the power play. Positioned on Carolina’s second line alongside Teuvo Teravainen and Jordan Staal, Jarvis brings depth and skill to the team’s offensive efforts.
In the opening game of the second round, Jarvis added another goal to his tally, showcasing his ability to make an impact when it counts. With his consistent performance thus far, there’s every reason to anticipate Jarvis continuing to be a key factor in Carolina’s playoff run. Tonight, as the Hurricanes aim to level the series, Jarvis is poised to play a pivotal role in maintaining their postseason momentum.
Jake Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – Bet365
Jake Guentzel missed his shots on goal mark in each of the first five games of the postseason. Prior to the postseason, his shots on goal line was 3.5 but due to his lack of production, it has been dropped to 2.5.
He came out firing in the first game of the second round against the Rangers recording five shots on goal in nine shot attempts. I would expect him to continue to firing tonight as the Hurricanes are down 1-0 in this series and are desperately trying to avoid going down 2-0.
Guentzel also has some great history against the Rangers as well recording over 2.5 shots on goal in fourteen of his last eighteen games against them.
Cale Makar over 0.5 Assists (-160) – DraftKings
Cale Makar has been on fire lately, notching at least one assist in nine out of his last ten games, and he’s kept the streak alive with assists in each of his last five games. Even on the road, he’s been a playmaking force, with assists in nine out of his last ten away games. Against division rivals, he’s been consistently productive, tallying assists in all four matchups this season.
With Colorado enjoying more time off than Dallas, they should be well-rested for the second round of the playoffs. Given the history, it wouldn’t be surprising if this upcoming game turns into another high-scoring showdown.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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Padres vs Diamondbacks -112 O/U 9.5
Yesterday, the D-Back’s bullpen got roughed up real bad in the 7th inning allowing eight runs. The loss was brutal at 13-1. I think today is a bounce back kind of day. Ryan Nelson takes the helm who is having a not-so-great year at 4.6 ERA and a 4.11 FIP thus far for 2024. The good news is that the snakes are facing Matt Waldron today who isn’t much better with a 4.35 ERA and a 4.05 FIP. Maybe a push when it comes to the pitching, but looking at stats, I still have to factor some of last year when the D-backs had some series bats and the Padres had some big problems. It’s little league day at Chase Field today and I think that the home team puts on a good show for the kids.
Ok, I know, I know. Fierceness and Sierra Leone blah blah blah. Look, each of these ponies have issues. Fierceness isn’t all that fierce when he is not in the lead and Sierra Leone is in a rough 2 position making it a long close. Do I want these horses to beat me? No, but I do think that it’s going to come down to a horse who is being very ovelooked up to this point. I am going to make a case for Stronghold. Here is why. Fierceness will try and set a fast pace having to move from the 16 hole to the rale. Could be some very fast fractions today. Stronhold will sit in the mix and stalk This is a very long race at a mile and a quarter, and I think some of the wide closers have the best chances to hit. I also decided to land on Just a touch. This horse has some Justify in him and he actually ran the better Blue Grass Stakes than Sierra Leone with all else held equal. Here is my tickets. Best of luck to you all!
We have reached the first Saturday in May and the Run For The Roses in The Kentucky Derby. It doesn’t get much better than this weekend for Horse Racing with the exception of maybe The Breeders Cup. That being said the biggest money pools of the year occur here. The stuff of race betting dreams can occur where a $2 ticket can turn into over 100k.
I am including picks for all the stakes races on the card, race numbers 4-12. The weather could get a little sloppy Saturday afternoon as there is a 50% chance of storms. The track was sloppy on Friday and I would say best case scenario are good conditions for Saturday. So keep an eye on the track, and if you can I’d recommend waiting to see how the track shapes up with the 3 pre-races. The races get started early so tune in with your screwdrivers and eggs.
For each race I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you. If you want any extra detail or thoughts on any races feel free to hit me up on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche.
Race 4 – Knicks Go Overnight Stakes – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $200,000 – Post Time 11:04 AM CDT
We kick off with the Stakes racing with a dirt mile for 4 year olds and up who haven’t won a graded sweepstakes since 2022. I am looking at a horse that has been the definition of consistent even while running on all different types of surfaces and that is the 1 Strong Quality. I think the two favorites here are deserving with my second choice being the 6 Best Actor. A couple horses from the outside have shown flashes of speed and could also contend, the 9 U.S. Army and the 11 Oscar Eclipse.
WIN: 1 Strong Quality
Top 4 if playing exotics: 1-6-11-9
Race 5 – Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes – Grade II – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse: $600,000 – Post Time 11:36 AM CDT
A sprint on the turf is usually a wide open race with lots of horses having a chance. Many times a race like this will shake out based upon the trip a horse gets and I see this one shaping up that way as well. What I don’t see is any flat out speed leading this group out of the gate. Lots of horses in the field should have plenty in the tank for a wild finish. The two horses I really like in this race are the 4 Motorious and the 10 Big Invasion. 4 Motorious did not have a good trip his last time out in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, but had hit the board in 8 previous outings having not missed since 2021 otherwise. He would be a good choice to single up in some trifectas as I don’t know if he is going to win, but I trust he will hit the board. 10 Big Invasion also started off poor at the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint at the start, but rebounded well to finish second. He struggled in his 2024 debut as well so I look for the bounce back to come here. The rest of my card will hold Brazilian entry 6 Filo Di Arianna and 14 Cogburn.
Win: 10 Big Invasion
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 10-4-6-14
Race 6 – Derby City Distaff – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 12:14 PM CDT
4 Year old and up Fillies and Mares running here and the setup on this race is really intriguing as the top three favorites just went 1-2-3 a month ago in the Madison at Keeneland. 7 Alva Starr, 9 Red Carpet Ready and 10 Vahva. 7 Alva Starr and 10 Vahva are having a rubber match having split victories against each other the last two times they’ve squared off. The setup has the favorites on the outside and a lot of speed on the inside. 1 Three Witches, 2 Olivia Darling, and 5 Spirit Wind will all try and get to the front quickly. 7 Alva Starr could go with them, but sat off the pace until the final furlong in her last outing. If the pace goes quick it could setup better for one of the late closers to sneak in like the 3 Flying Connection or the 4 Chi Town Lady. I landed on the 3 Flying Connection as I think she has the best late pace and is rolling back in distance and could crank it up a with a 1/4 mile to go and show a few things to the favorites. This will be a fun one to watch and if you are playing a Pick 3 or Pick 4 plays along the way I certainly would not be singling out one or two horses in this one.
Win: 3 Flying Connection
Top 4 If playing Exotics: 3-7-4-9
Race 7 – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – Grade II – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $750,000 – Post Time 12:56 PM CDT
Four+ Year old ladies running a turf mile here. Two dual entries in this field the 1 Ag Bullet will race here, but the 8 Heavenly Sunday ran Friday. I think that slows the pace down a little as the 9 Not so close should be the lone horse to be on the lead coming from the outside and will likely link up with 1 Ag Bullet at the first turn. The 3 Chili Flag (FR) has hit the board every time Irad Ortiz has been on her and I expect the same here. The lightly raced 6 Delahaye should benefit from not having the 8 in the field and should setup in good stalking position. I like the setup as well for the 7 Evvie Jets who was third last time out to a pair of horses that would be the co-favorites if they were in this field. Chad Brown’s third entry 11 Coppice has a win with Frankie Dettori on him in Dubai last fall and could have a chance to win from near the outside here.
Win: 3 Chili Flag
Top 4 if playing Exotics: 3-7-6-11
Race 8 – Pat Day Mile – Grade II – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse $600,000 – Post Time 1:46 PM CDT
Some of the three year olds that couldn’t quite get to the Derby are here in the Pat Day Mile. The 8 Top Conor is one of those horses who won his maiden and then Chad Brown put him in the Bluegrass where he set the pace, but couldn’t hold off the big boys. He’ll look to bounce back here more likely stalking the outside pace of the 11 Vlahos who won his only start wiring the field. 11 Vlahos will be stretching out to this distance for the first time, and I am not sure he will be able to sustain against this much stronger field. The 12 Nash got bested twice by Track Phantom on the Derby trail and Brad Cox got him down in class and then moved him into a one turn mile like this race where he excelled. I also see some potential for the 1 Carbone on the one turn mile if he can get clear. The 7 Who Dey has gotten better every time and if he does so again could also be in play here.
Win: 12 Nash
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 12-7-8-11
Race 9 – American Turf Stakes – Grade II – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse: $600,000 – Post Time 2:40 PM CDT
Wide open race for me on the turf as I failed to eliminate quite a few of these entries. I landed on the likely favorite, the 5 Legend of Time (GB) an import coming over from Dubai and getting Frankie Dettori. I think the pace won’t be lightning quick here and it should setup for a nice stalking trip if he can get into good position. The Transylvania Stakes trio of 6 Neat, 11 Cugino, and 3 Lagynos could all be a factor. The 12 Abrumar bested 11 Cugino twice this year already, and all three of 11 Cugino‘s place runs have come up short by less than a length. 14 Agate Road gets the tough outside gate here and will need a good trip with Irad Ortiz on board. Finally I think the 4 Formidable Man, 7 Stay Hot and 10 Set are all live horses. Gonna stick this race as an All selection in some Daily Doubles and Pick 3s and hope for the best.
Win: 5 Legend Of Time
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 5-11-7-10
Race 10 – Churchill Downs Stakes – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 3:31 PM CDT
The wildcard in this race is the 2024 debut of 6 Zozos. This horse has run well off a layoff before, and seems to be comfortable at the mile or less distance. I don’t think the pace will be super fast in this one so I believe horses that are just off the pace should have an advantage. The other favorite 11 Hoist the Gold draws the outside post and will likely be the pace setter here, but having to do so from the outside makes him unattractive for me to hold onto a lead. I am going to look to the horse who should be just behind him out of the gate the 7 Track Mate who has won his last two starts since Trainer D Wayne Lukas Added blinkers. He’s taking a big jump up in class here, but the speed ratings the last two times out show he can hang. Other horses I am interested in who I think will be near the front are 4 Mr. Wireless, 9 Three Technique and 10 Gun Pilot
Win: 7 Track Mate
Top 4 if playing Exotics: 7-4-9-6
Race 11 – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 4:27 PM CDT
The 8 Never Surprised will be the only horse looking to take the lead out of the gate and that could work to his advantage in this his third outing of 2024 following over a year layoff. He’ll need to wire a very tough field however that includes another Charles Appleby import with Frankie Dettori on board the 12 Naval Power (GB). He lost last time out to Master Of The Seas who is likely the best turf horse in the country right now, but he was a clear second in the Makers Mark at Keeneland. This horse should sit in good stalking position on the outside and the question will be if he can work his way past the other solid horses who will likely be in front of him, the Chad Brown entries 5 Program Trading and 6 I’m very Busy. 5 Program Trading is 4 for 5 in his career when it comes to getting in the win circle and 6 I’m very Busy has finished first or second in his last four races. That being said I am also thinking the 1 Integration could swing back into form a few disappointing outings in 2024. He smoked the Chad Brown entries Virginia Derby and the Hill Prince at the end of 2023. Also looking to sneak onto to board and possibly making some noise is 3 Cellist.
Win: 11 Naval Power
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 11-1-6-5
Race 12 – The Kentucky Derby – Grade I – 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) – Purse: $5,000,000 – Post Time 5:57 CDT
There will be plenty of pace here out of the gate as 1 Dornoch will look to get the lead off the rail and into good position. Also look for the 8 Just A Touch and also ran 21 Epic Ride to get to the front. Field Favorite 17 Fierceness will also look to be toward the lead and if he gets out ahead of 21 Epic Ride I would not be surprised if Johnny V takes him right to the front. The other favorite 2 Sierra Leone will be laying break and waiting for his moment to pick through the big field and there are no other horses in the field with the late kick he has. The only question for me will be his trip, if he can get to the outside at the homeward turn and have clear sailing in front of him I don’t see anyone stopping him from the win. The 3 Mystik Dan has a nice price and has shown one of the fastest speed ratings, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to cover the distance here. If its wet, I’ll probably have him in some more plays. The 6 Just Steel is my favorite of the longer prices in this race. The son of Justify has run a bunch in the prep season, but took a big step forward in his last outing which intrigues me. If 8 Just a Touch can get some good traffic behind him maybe he can keep the lead and out ahead of some of the closers. 14 Endlessly is a question mark making his first start on dirt, but he has been impressive on turf and synthetic. 17 Fierceness is likely going to be towards the front and knows he has been caught in some slower pace races including by the 15 Domestic Product in the Holy Bull. I think he’ll look to keep that pace up and hope 2 Sierra Leone and the other closers are too far back to catch him. 19 Resilience who won the Wood Memorial is one of the horses that just keeps getting better every time out. If he can do it again I can see him getting toward the front and possibly contending. For me the favorites are priced too short, but I’ve thought Sierra Leone was the best horse in this age group and hold a nice futures ticket on him already so I’m not fading him now except in some mix of my exotics. He is still my pick to win this race.
We have a great show for you today! We continue to talk derby here with our wonderful horse racing experts in Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche and Patrick Gates @GatorBetting from The OddsBreakers. Patrick, Shawn and Kiev talk all horse racing for the weekend. We go into the Kentucky Derby talking about how the race could shape up. Who are the long shots? Who has a chance to hit the board? How are we constructing our tickets? We also talk other races such as the Kentucky Oaks for friday. Should be a sloppy track and we have some other races that we like as well. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4th.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the initial Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.
Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.
It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.
Day: Scattered Thunderstorms, 79 F, 49% Chance of Rain
Previous Winners & Odds:
2023: Mage
Odds: 15-1
2022: Rich Strike *
Odds: 80-1
2021: Mandaloun **
Odds: 15-1
2020: Authentic
Odds: 8-1
2019: Country House ***
Odds: 65-1
2018: Justify
Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.
** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.
*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
Most Wins by a Trainer:
6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.
Post Position
Wins
1
(8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
2
(7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
3
(5) Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
(10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
6
(2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
7
(8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
8
(8) Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934); Mage (2023)
9
(4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
10
(9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
11
(2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
12
(3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
13
(4) Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
Owner(s): West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, Two Eight Racing, LLC and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Sáez
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: Good Magic (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
3
2
0
2024
2
1
0
0
2023
4
2
2
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Dornoch, a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, broke his maiden in his third career start, winning a $99,000 Maiden Special Weight at Keeneland. He then won the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park. In his most recent race, Dornoch finished fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, and Epic Ride.
In all three of the races, Dornoch won, he set the pace. He draws a tough position along the rail so it will be Luis Saez’s job to get him out of the gate quickly. Saez has ridden Dornoch in five of his six career starts.
This will be Luis Saez’s 11th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He rode Maximum Security in the 2019 Derby which he won only to be disqualified for interference on the second turn. In 2020, he rode the post-time favorite, Essential Quality, and finished 3rd for his only official in-the-money result in the Derby.
Name: Sierra Leone
ML Odds: 3-1
Owner(s): Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brook T. Westerberg and Smith
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)
Sire: Gun Runner (Candy Ride)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
3
1
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
2
1
1
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Sierra Leone broke his maiden in his first career start, winning a $85,000 Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct. Following that race, he lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) to fellow entrant Dornoch. Sierra Leone won the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) and the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) in his two most recent races. He’s continued to improve in each start and enters the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites.
Sierra Leone is a closer so you won’t see Gaffalione try to jump out to the front of the pack. This colt has shown that he can adapt to any pace set whether it be slow (Risen Star) or much faster (Blue Grass).
Tyler Gaffalione, who has ridden Sierra Leone in each of his last two starts will retain the mount. This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s 7th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to finish in-the-money with his best finish coming back in 2019 with War of Will who ran seventh. To be fair, this is the best horse that he has ridden in the Derby with all six of his previous rides going off at odds of at least 14-1.
Name: Mystik Dan
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Gasaway, Lance, 4 G Racing, LLC, Hamby III, Daniel and Valley View Farm LLC
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Dam: Ma’am (Colonel John)
Sire: Goldencents (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
1
1
2024
3
1
0
1
2023
3
1
1
0
Churchill Downs
2
1
0
0
Mystik Dan broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $121,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. After that, he finished fifth in $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming and fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. Following those two races, he won his second race in the Southwest Stakes (Grade III) defeating fellow entrants Catching Freedom and Just Steel. In his most recent race, he ran third in the Arkansas Derby (Grade III) despite being bumped.
In both of the races that he won, he has gotten out to the front so I’m expecting Brian Hernadez to follow a similar strategy in the Derby.
Brian Hernadez has ridden Mystik Dan in five of his six career starts. This will be Brian Hernadez’s 5th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to finish in-the-money with his best finish coming back in 2017 with McCraken who ran eighth.
Name: Catching Freedom
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Albaugh Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Catch My Drift (Pioneerof the Nile)
Sire: Constitution (Tapit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
3
0
1
2024
3
2
0
1
2023
2
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
2
1
0
0
Catching Freedom broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $121,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Following that he ran fourth in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming. After that, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park defeating fellow entrant Just Steel. In the following race, he finished 3rd in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. In his most recent race, he won the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) at Fair Grounds defeating fellow entrant Honor Marie.
In all three of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Flavian Prat to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Louisiana Derby.
This will be Flavian Prat’s 7th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House after Maximum Security was disqualified. Prat has hit the board in five of his first six Derby mounts. Last year, he finished third with Angel of Empire who was the post-time favorite.
Name: Catalytic
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Tami Bobo, Julie Davies, and George G. Isaacs
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: José Ortiz
Dam: One Show Only (Distorted Humor)
Sire: Catalina Cruiser (Union Rags)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
2
0
2024
2
0
2
0
2023
1
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Catalytic is one of the more inexperienced horses in the field having only races three times before. He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $43,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park. After that, he missed some time with his next start coming five months later. In his second start, he ran second in an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs. In his most recent start, Catalytic finished second in the Florida Derby (Grade I) behind fellow entrant and current favorite Fierceness. He’s continued to improve in each start and seemed to handle the distance well in his last race. However, if he wants to be a contender in the Derby, he’ll need to make a major leap.
In his lone victory, Catalytic got out to the front and Leparoux followed a similar strategy in the Florida Derby so I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to try and push him towards the front early.
This will be Jose Ortiz’s first mount of Catalytic and 9th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2018 where he finished second with Good Magic. Ortiz has already won the Preakness (2022) and Belmont Stakes (2017) so he just needs the Derby to complete a career Triple Crown.
Name: Just Steel
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): BC Stables, LLC
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Dam: Irish Lights (Fastnet Rock)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
11
2
4
1
2024
4
0
3
0
2023
7
2
1
1
Churchill Downs
2
1
0
1
Just Steel is one of the more experienced horses in the field with eleven starts to his name. He broke his maiden in his third start, winning a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at the Spa. Following that, he finished seventh in the Hopeful Stakes (Grade I) and 6th in the Breeders’ Futurity. After that disappointing finish, they cut him back in distance. In his next two races, both sprints, he finished 3rd in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming race and then won the Ed Brown Stakes. They then moved him back up in distance where he finished second in both the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes (Grade III). In the Smarty Jones Stakes, he lost to fellow entrant Catching Freedom and in the Southwest Stakes (Grade II) he lost to fellow entrant Mystik Dan. In his two most recent stats, Just Steel finished 7th in the Rebel Stakes (Grade II) and second in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I). His best performance to date was in the Arkansas Derby which was encouraging.
In his two victories, Just Steel has come from just off the pace. The projected pace is expected to be fast so I’m expecting Kieth Asmussen to try and keep him as close to the front runners as possible.
Kieth Asmussen is the son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. He rode Just Steel in the Arkansas Derby and will retain the mount. This will be his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
Name: Honor Marie
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Ribble Farms LLC, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. Fishbein, and Dave Fishbein
Trainer: Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Dam: Dame Marie (Smart Strike)
Sire: Honor Code (A.P. Indy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
2
0
2024
2
0
1
0
2023
3
2
1
0
Churchill Downs
3
2
1
0
Honor Marie broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $91,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Following that he ran second in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming. After that, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs. In the following race, he finished fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) at Fair Grounds behind fellow entrant Catching Freedom.
In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Ben Curtis to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Louisiana Derby.
This will be Ben Curtis’s first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
Name: Just a Touch
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Qatar Racing, LLC, Resolute Racing and Marc Detampel
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Jockey: Florent Géroux
Dam: Touching Beauty (Tapit)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
2
0
2024
3
1
2
0
2023
–
–
–
–
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Just A Touch is one of the more inexperienced horses in the field having only races three times before. He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $57,000 Maiden Special Weight at Fair Grounds. After an impressive debut, he competed in the Gotham Stakes (Grade III) where he finished second. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) losing to fellow entrant Sierra Leone. While he has finished runner-up in each of his last two starts, his speed figures are improving against some tougher competition. He’s also been increasing in distance each race and has seemed to handle it well which is also encouraging.
In each of his three races, Just A Touch has gotten out to the front. Florent Geroux, who has ridden this horse in each of his first three career starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be Florent Geroux’s 8th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Manadloun which was awarded nine months after the race when stewards disqualified Medina Spirit. Last year, he finished seventeenth with Jace’s Road.
Name: T O Password (JPN)
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Tomoya Ozasa
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Dam: T O Rachel (King Kamehameha)
Sire: Copano Rickey (Gold Allure)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
–
–
–
–
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
T O Password is the most inexperienced horse in the field having only raced twice before. He earned the Derby spot for the horse from the qualifying races that were run in Japan. T O Password has won both of his first two career starts. The first was a $81,900 Maiden and the second was the Fukuryu Stakes.
In each of his two races, T O Password has got out to the front. However, based on his splits I’m not sure he has the speed to contest in this race given the projected pace. This will also be a step up in class for him as the Fukuryu Stakes didn’t possess the pedigree of horses that this field has.
This will be Kazushi Kimura’s first mount on T O Password. Kimura rode Mandarin Hero in last year’s Derby who finished 12th.
Name: Forever Young (JPN)
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Susumu Fujita
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Dam: Forever Darling (Congrats)
Sire: Real Steel (Deep Impact)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
5
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
3
3
0
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $91,700 Maiden at Kyoto Racetrack. He won his next two races, the JBC Nisai Yushun and Zennippon Nisai Yushun. After that, he competed in his first stakes race, the Boutique Group Saudi Derby (Grade III) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Saudi Arabia which he won. In his most recent race, he won the UAE Derby (Grade II).
This is one of the more impressive horses from Japan to compete in the Derby. Forever Young has won each of his first five starts and put together an impressive performance in the UAE Derby. This will be the best field that this 3-year-old has faced but based on his past performances, he has a chance at becoming the first horse from Japan to win the Kentucky Derby.
Ryusei Sakai will retain the mount on Forever Young who has ridden this horse in each of his first five starts. This will be his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
Name: Track Phantom
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): L and N Racing LLC, Clark O. Brewster, Jerry Caroom, and Breeze Easy, LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Dam: Miss Sunset (Into Mischief)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
3
2
1
2024
3
1
1
0
2023
4
2
1
1
Churchill Downs
3
1
1
1
Track Phantom broke his maiden in his third start, winning a $123,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. After that, he took a step up in class and won the Gun Runner Stakes. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Lecomte Stakes (Grade III) which he won. Following that, he finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrant Sierra Leone. In his most recent race, he finished 4th in the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
In each of his three wins, Track Phantom has gotten out to the front. Joel Rosario, who has ridden this horse in each of his last three starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be Joel Rosario’s 13th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb. Last year, he finished fourth with Disarm.
Name: West Saratoga
ML Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Harry L. Veruchi
Trainer: Larry W. Demeritte
Jockey: Jesús Castañón
Dam: Mo Wicked (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Exaggerator (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
10
2
5
1
2024
3
0
2
1
2023
7
2
3
0
Churchill Downs
3
1
2
0
West Saratoga is one of the more experienced horses in the field with ten starts to his name. He broke his maiden in his fifth start, winning a $70,000 Maiden Special Weight at Ellis Park. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Iroquois Stakes (Grade III) which he won. After that, he took a step up in class and finished fifth in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I). In his next two races, West Saratoga ran second in the Pasco Stakes and third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade III) both at Tampa Bay Downs. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III) behind fellow entrant Endlessly.
In both of his wins, West Saratoga has gotten out to the front. Jesús Castañón, who has ridden this horse in each of his last two starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be Jesús Castañón’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His last mount in the Derby was back in 2011 where he rode Shackleford who finished fourth.
Name: Endlessly
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Amerman Racing LLC
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Dam: Dream Fuhrever (Langfuhr)
Sire: Oscar Performance (Kitten’s Joy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
5
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
4
3
0
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Endlessly broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $83,000 Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar. In his next two starts, he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes (Grade III) and Zuma Beach Stakes (Grade III). After that, he took a step up in class and finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I). Endlessly rebounded in his next race winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. In his most recent race, he won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III) at Turfway Park defeating fellow entrant West Saratoga.
There is some concern with Endlessly as he has not raced on dirt before. While he has won five of his six career starts they all came over turf or synthetic surfaces.
In all three of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Umberto Rispoli to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
This will be Umberto Rispoli’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His last mount in the Derby was back in 2021 where he rode Brooklyn Strong who finished fourteenth.
Name: Domestic Product
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Klaravich Stables, Inc.
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Dam: Goods and Services (Paynter)
Sire: Practical Joke (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
1
0
2024
2
1
1
0
2023
3
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Domestic Product broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $90,000 Maiden Special Weight. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) where he finished seventh. After that, he finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) one spot ahead of Fierceness. In his most recent race, he won the South Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III) at Tampa Bay Downs defeating fellow entrant Grand Mo the First.
In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs.
This will be Irad Ortiz’s first mount of Domestic Product and 8th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2019 where he finished fourth with Improbable. Irad Ortiz is one of the best jockey’s as he has won the Eclipse Award five of the last six years. While he has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, he has won the Belmont Stakes twice.
Name: Grand Mo the First
ML Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Granpollo Stables LLC
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Dam: Lilies So Fair (Giant’s Causeway)
Sire: Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
0
4
2024
3
0
0
3
2023
3
2
0
1
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Grand Mo the First broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $43,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park. After that, he won an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park which was his last victory. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Zuma Beach Stakes (Grade III) where he finished third. In his next two starts, he finished third in both the Swale Stakes and South Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III). In his most recent race, he finished third again in the Florida Derby (Grade I).
There is some concern with Grand Mo the First as he has never won on dirt before. Both of his wins came on turf.
In both of his wins, Grand Mo the First was among the front runners. Emisael Jaramillo, who has ridden this horse in four of his first six career starts, will retain the mount.
This will be Emisael Jaramillo’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His last mount in the Derby was back in 2016 where he rode Majesto who finished eighteenth.
Name: Fierceness
ML Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: John Velázquez
Dam: Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty)
Sire: City of Light (Quality Road)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
3
0
1
2024
2
1
0
1
2023
3
2
0
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Fierceness broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. After that, he took a step up in class and finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I). Following that, he rebounded winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) by over six lengths. He competed in the Holly Bull Stakes (Grade III) in his next race where he ran third behind fellow entrant Domestic Product but was bumped at the start. In his most recent race, he won the Florida Derby (Grade I) defeating fellow entrants Catalytic and Grand Mo the First.
In each of his three wins, Fierceness has gotten out to the front. John Velázquez, who has ridden this horse in each of his last three career starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be John Velázquez’s 26th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times before. Last year, he finished fourth with Disarm.
Name: Stronghold
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Eric and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Philip D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Dam: Spectator (Jimmy Creed)
Sire: Ghostzapper (Awesome Again)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
3
3
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
4
1
3
0
Churchill Downs
1
1
0
0
Stronghold broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $120,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. In his next two races, he finished second in both the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III) and Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II). Following that, he won the Sunland Park Derby (Grade III). In his most recent race, he won the Santa Anita Derby (Grade I) posting his best speed figure. He’s continued to improve in each start and seemed to handle the distance well in his last race.
In each of his three wins, Stronghold has been near the front. Antonio Fresu, who has ridden this horse in each of his last four career starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be Antonio Fresu’s first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
Name: Resilience
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Júnior Alvarado
Dam: Meadowsweet (Smart Strike)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
1
1
2024
3
2
0
0
2023
3
0
1
1
Churchill Downs
2
0
1
1
Resilience broke his maiden in his fourth start, winning a $71,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) where he finished fourth behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom. In his most recent race, he won the Wood Memorial Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct defeating fellow entrant Society Man.
In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs.
This will be Júnior Alvarado’s first mount on Resilience and 5th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2016 where he finished fourth with Mohaymen.
Name: Society Man
ML Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, West Paces Racing LLC, GMP Stables LLC, Carl F. Pascarella, and Yurie Pascarella
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Dam: You Cheated (Colonel John)
Sire: Good Magic (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
1
1
2024
3
1
1
0
2023
2
0
0
1
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Society Man broke his maiden in his fourth start, winning an $80,000 Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct behind fellow entrant Resilience.
In his lone win, he came from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs.
This will be Frankie Dettori’s first mount on Society Man and 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2000 where he finished sixth with China Visit.
Name: Epic Ride
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Welch Racing LLC
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Dam: Pick a Time (Gio Ponti)
Sire: Blame (Arch)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
2
1
2024
4
2
1
0
2023
1
0
1
0
Churchill Downs
–
–
–
–
Epic Ride broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $69,000 Maiden Special Weight at Turfway Park. After that, he handled the increase in distance well and won the Leonatus Stakes by four lengths. Following that, he ran second in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes as he was outkicked down the stretch. In his most recent race, he finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) at Keeneland behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone and Just a Touch.
In each of his two wins, Epic Ride has got out to the front. Adam Beschizza, who has ridden this horse in each race is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.
This will be Adam Beschizza’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2020 where he finished seventh with Enforceable.
Projected Pace:
Front Runners
Track Phantom (#12)
Just a Touch (#8)
Dornoch (#1)
Fierceness (#17)
Dornoch (#1)
Epic Ride (#21)
Off the Pace
West Saratoga (#13)
Catalytic (#5)
Just Steel (#6)
Stronghold (#18)
Resilience (#19)
Mystik Dan (#3)
Middle/ Back of the Pact
Grand Mo the First (#16)
Domestic Product (#15)
Endlessly (#14)
Society Man (#20)
Closers
Honor Marie (#7)
Sierra Leone (#2)
Catching Freedom (#4)
Picks:
$5 WIN – #4, CATCHING FREEDOM, #8 JUST A TOUCH, #19 RESILIENCE
The Kentucky Oaks is a prestigious Grade I stakes race for three-year-old fillies (young female horses) held annually on the day before the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Much like its counterpart, the Kentucky Derby, the Oaks is deeply ingrained in American horse racing culture and is often referred to as the “Run for the Lilies.”
Established in 1875, the Kentucky Oaks is a significant event in its own right, showcasing the talent and athleticism of young fillies. The race covers a distance of 1 1/8 miles (approximately 1.8 kilometers) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs.
Just like the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks has its own traditions, including the singing of “My Old Kentucky Home” and the presentation of a garland of lilies to the winning filly, in contrast to the garland of roses awarded in the Derby.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
