The Dolphins out-gained the Colts 337-284 yet lost 16-10. A 2-1 turnover ratio got them.
The Packers out-gained the Texans 277-197 yet only won 24-22. A 3-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams is why.
The Browns out-gained the Bengals 336 to 223 yet lost 21-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and a QB injury got the Browns.
The Falcons out-gained the Seahawks 385 to 339 yet lost 34-14. A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor coaching got the Falcons.
Raiders yards were mainly garbage time and the Rams let off.
The 49ers were only out-gained 329 to 310 yet lost 28-18. Terrible red zone efficiency, bad QB play and big injuries to wide recievers crushed the 49ers.
Last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, Davis Thompson (T5) and Taylor Pendrith (8th) were our closest outright selections. We hit one of our two Top 20 bets with Harry Hall (+175), while our other T20 pick, Seamus Power (+135), struggled failing to make the weekend.
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa is aiming to become the first player to defend his title at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since that victory, he’s had a solid season with eight top-10 finishes, including two runner-up performances.
The PGA Tour Heads to Japan
The FedExCup Fall continues with the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Chiba, Japan, marking the first international event of the series. Collin Morikawa returns, hoping to defend his title, alongside former ZOZO champions Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, as well as two-time major winner Xander Schauffele.
The ZOZO is the fifth of eight FedExCup Fall tournaments, where players are competing to secure TOUR cards for the 2025 season.
Round 1: Wednesday, October 23rd, 2024 into Thursday, October 24th, 2024
Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
Round 2: Thursday, October 24th, 2024 into Friday, October 25th, 2024
Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
Round 3: Friday, October 25th, 2024 into Saturday, October 26th, 2024
Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
Round 4: Saturday, October 26th, 2024 into Sunday, October 27th, 2024
Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
Weather:
Course/ Tournament History:
The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Since then, with the restrictions lifted, it has been held again at Narashino Country Club the past two editions.
Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
261, Tiger Woods (2019)
18-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
61, Richy Werenski (Second round, 2020 @ Sherwood), John Huh (Second round, 2023 @ Narashino Country Club)
Largest Margin of Victory:
6 Strokes – Collin Morikawa (2023)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
261, Tiger Woods (2019)
18-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
61, John Huh (Second round, 2023)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.
The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.
Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.
Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.
No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. All three of the Par 5’s had a scoring average under par last season.
No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.
As the ZOZO Championship takes place at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.67
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
53%
GIR Percentage
66%
65%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.36
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club.
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (<7,200 Yards)
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club course layout combines challenging approach shots with strategic tee placements. Excelling in this area demonstrates a player’s capacity to consistently hit greens in regulation, creating more opportunities for birdies.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Justin Thomas
J.J. Spaun
Collin Morikawa
Hideki Matsuyama
Sungjae Im
Xander Schauffele
Kevin Yu
Carson Young
Chan Kim
Sam Stevens
Strokes Gained: Approach
A strong iron game is crucial for success at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Doug Ghim
Kurt Kitayama
J.J. Spaun
Mac Meissner
Gary Woodland
Xander Schauffele
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Novak
Harry Hall
Zac Blair
Good Drives Gained
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Kohles
Gary Woodland
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Matt Kuchar
Patrick Fishburn
Andrew Putnam
C.T. Pan
Mac Meissner
Carson Young
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Greens at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club are bentgrass.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Harry Hall
Max Greyserman
Xander Schauffele
Ben Silverman
Victor Perez
Justin Lower
Brendon Todd
Andrew Novak
K.H. Lee
Davis Riley
Par 3 Scoring
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club features an unusual layout with five Par 3’s.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Harry Hall
Si Woo Kim
Nico Echavarria
Mac Meissner
Kensei Hirata
Jhonattan Vegas
C.T. Pan
Maverick McNealy
David Skinns
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
Two of the three Par 5’s at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Min Woo Lee
Kurt Kitayama
Jhonattan Vegas
Patrick Rodgers
Sahith Theegala
Eric Cole
Harry Hall
Ben Silverman
S.H. Kim
Patrick Fishburn
Proximity Gained: 175-200, 200+ Yards
Most approach shots at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club come from the 175+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Kurt Kitayama
Hideki Matsuyama
David Skinns
Doug Ghim
Nate Lashley
Gary Woodland
Chandler Phillips
Xander Schauffele
Adam Svensson
Mac Meissner
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Max Greyserman
Chandler Phillips
Kurt Kitayama
Xander Schauffele
Harry Hall
Mac Meissner
J.J. Spaun
Andrew Novak
Ryan Fox
Nick Taylor
Bogey Avoidance
Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Max Greyserman
Matt Kuchar
Collin Morikawa
Kurt Kitayama
Mac Meissner
Gary Woodland
Doug Ghim
Rico Hoey
Beau Hossler
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Max Greyserman
Harry Hall
Brendon Todd
Kurt Kitayama
Satoshi Kodaira
Davis Riley
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Comparable Courses and Event History
According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club has shown to be beneficial for players.
Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, Last 5 Editions):
Beau Hossler
Hideki Matsuyama
Sahith Theegala
Sungjae Im
J.J. Spaun
Collin Morikawa
Luke List
Maverick McNealy
Xander Schauffele
Taylor Moore
The Field:
This year’s ZOZO Championship will feature a total of 78competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 60 Available on Current Season’s FedExCup Points list
Top 8 available from 2024 JGTO Prize Money List through Japan Open
Winner 2024 BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship Mori Building Cup
Current Season’s JGTO Membership
Sponsors Exemptions – Restricted
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Collin Morikawa (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Ben Kohles, Benjamin Silverman, Carson Young, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Skinns, Jacob Bridgeman, Mac Meissner, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Ren Yonezawa, Rico Hoey, Ryan Fox, Sami Valimaki, Seamus Power, Taisei Shimizu, Takahiro Hataji, Takashi Ogiso, Victor Perez, Vincent Whaley, Yuta Sugiura
Sponsors Exemptions:
Gary Woodland, Satoshi Kodaira, Zac Blair, Joel Dahmen, Takahiro Hataji
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Xander Schauffele (+450) is having a career-best season, winning two major championships. His last three starts include a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T5 at the BMW Championship, and T4 at the TOUR Championship. Schauffele has competed in all five editions of this tournament, with three top-20 finishes.
Collin Morikawa (+650) makes his first start since finishing runner-up at the TOUR Championship. While he came close to a win this season, his last TOUR victory was at the 2023 ZOZO Championship. This will be his sixth appearance in the event.
Hideki Matsuyama (+750) returns after finishing T9 at the TOUR Championship, having withdrawn from the BMW Championship due to back pain. This season, he won The Genesis Invitational and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Matsuyama will make his sixth appearance here, where he won in 2021.
Sungjae Im (+1400) makes his first start after finishing 7th at the TOUR Championship and T11 at the BMW Championship. This is his fifth appearance in the event, with his best finish being T3 in 2019.
Recent Horses for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Beau Hossler
2
68.00
2
16
–
X
–
Sahith Theegala
2
68.38
19
5
–
X
–
Sungjae Im
4
68.44
12
29
–
X
3
J.J Spaun
2
68.50
6
25
–
X
–
Collin Morikawa
5
68.60
WON
45
7
X
22
Hideki Matsuyama
5
68.30
51
40
WON
X
2
Luke List
2
68.75
–
29
7
X
–
Maverick McNealy
2
68.75
–
12
25
X
–
Xander Schauffele
5
68.80
38
9
28
X
10
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
ZOZO Championship
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Golfer
Events Played
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Kaito Onishi
2
72.00
64
76
–
X
–
Shugo Imahira
5
71.30
68
78
18
X
59
Naoyuki Kataoka
2
71.25
–
64
66
X
–
C.T. Pan
3
70.83
–
59
57
X
59
Previous Winners, Scores and Prices:
2023: Collin Morikawa (-14) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Price: 11-1
2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Price: 40-1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Price: 16-1
2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
Price: 28-1
2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Price: 33-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Collin Morikawa
T6 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T25 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2022: Keegan Bradley
T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2020: Patrick Cantlay
T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
2019: Tiger Woods
T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Collin Morikawa
2022
2021
2020
2019
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Collin Morikawa
T45
T7
T50
T22
2022: Keegan Bradley
2021
2019
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Keegan Bradley
T7
T13
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
2020
2019
Sherwood Country Club
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Hideki Matsuyama
T28
2
2020: Patrick Cantlay
Tournament Debut
2019: Tiger Woods
Tournament Debut
Picks:
Outrights:
Sahith Theegala (+1800) – DraftKings
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Kurt Kitayama (+2500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Si Woo Kim (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Matt Kuchar (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Top 20 (including ties):
Rickie Fowler (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Gary Woodland (+170) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the ZOZO Championship: 3.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
USE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires december 31st 2024
To get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Bengals vs Browns +5.5 O/U 48.5
What can brown do for you? Hopefully enough. I don’t think that Cleveland is a good team at all. In staying that, I also think that Cincinnati is below average. This is a rivalry game, and I do not thing that Joe Burrow and the kittens should be laying this road chalk. The Browns team shows bad in most metrics, but we also have to remember that most of those games were played without their top offensive lineman, their best running back, and their best pass catcher in TE David NJoku. Well, the offensive line is healthier, and Nick Chubb is back at running back. The Bengals have a solid offense as we know, but they also rank a pretty bad 26th in defensive EPA. They struggle stopping both the run and the pass. Even with all of Cleveland’s injuries, their defense ranks 19th in EPA. Let’s look at the history here. Over the last eight matchups between these teams, the Browns have won six of them. They won them all at home. Hold your nose, close your eyes and take the Browns.
Browns +5.5 – 2 stars
Bonus Play: Saquon Barkley over 13.5 receiving yards – 1.5 stars – Do you think that Barkley wants to get back at his oldeteam who wouldn’t give him a real extension?
