College Football Week 8 Saturday Super Plays – Nebraska vs Indiana

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October 19, 2024

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Nebraska vs Indiana -6.5 O/U 49

Ok, riding Indiana has been quite fun this year. So was hitting their season win total over 5.5, but now I have to unfortunately look the other way. It is true that Indiana is 6-0 and 5-1 ATS, but does that warrant them being a 6.5 point favorite against a 5-1 Nebraska team that is 4-1-1 ATS? I think not. Indiana may be 6-0, but they have played nobody. Not even a team ranked in the top 66 from that standpoint. Nebraska at least had to pay a solid Illinois team who they lost to in overtime, and they had beaten a good Colorado team by margin along with beating a better than average Rutgers team before they got injuries. Now both teams are coming off of the bye, so many might assume that is equal advantage for both, but I think that it hurts the team that is undefeated and was humming just fine before they were forced into the break. Indiana has the better metrics on offense this year, but Nebraska believe it or not has the better defense ranking 10th in EPA over Indiana at 18th. The Hoosiers are high and mighty right now, but they haven’t at all been tested, and I think that this is very important to see. I know that Curt Cignetti wins, and he has proven it at James Madison along with a good start to the year, but I also know that Matt Rhule wins. Don’t believe me? Just google him.

Nebraska +6.5 – 2.5 stars

Miami vs Louisville +5 O/U 61

This might be a great game to watch on Saturday. Looking at this spread and the history between these two teams, we are going to look at the home dog right? WRONG! It is true that Miami had to come up with almost impossible comebacks to win their last two games against Virginia Tech and Cal. What is not being talked about enough is that they have the top athletes to do these things, and if this team starts well, they can keep up or pretty much beat anybody in college football. Well Louisville isn’t exactly a top team. Louisville is a solid team this year, and I have them ranked at 24th in my power ratings, but Miami is a top 7 team, and should be able to get margin off of most teams. When Louisville actually had some competition this year, they failed. A loss at Notre Dame by seven points, and a loss at home vs SMU by also seven. The issue with the Cardinal is that their passing game. This team only ranks 54th in success rate to Miami at 5th. Louisville’s biggest problem is stopping the pass ranking 67th in opponent passing EPA and 74th in opponent QBR. Miami doesn’t have a bunch of weaknesses minus Cam Ward throwing a few untimely interceptions. Tyler Shough however can also be careless with the ball. He seems to not step up in the big games. I have Miami by about 8 points on the road here. We need to thank Virginia Tech and Cal for this spread. Lay the small road chalk.

Miami -5 – 2.5 stars

Saturday Free Play Video:

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Sniper Wes

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October 19, 2024

Aaron Judge celebrating with a teammate after slamming another homerun against the Orioles on May 15.

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NFL Week 7 Sharp Money Movement

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 18, 2024

As of Thursday 10/17/24

Sharp Money On:

Broncos +2 to -2.5 at the Saints – 57% tickets and 76% of the money.
Seahawks +3.5 to +3 at the Falcons – 59% tickets and 79% of the money.
Bills -7.5 to -9.5 hosting the Titans – 69% tickets and 75% of the money.
Rams -4.5 to -6.5 hosting the Raiders – 65% tickets and 77% of the money.
Buccaneers +5 to +3.5 hosting the Ravens – 36% tickets and 50% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Seahawks vs Falcons over 48 to 51 – 76% tickets and 89% of the money.
Lions vs Vikings over 48 to 50.5 – 87% tickets and 93% of the money.
Ravens vs Buccaneers over 46 to 49.5 – 81% tickets and 96% of the money.
Panthers vs Commanders over 49 to 51.5 – 72% tickets and 84% of the money.

College Football Week 8 Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 18, 2024

Virginia vs Clemson -21.5 O/U 57.5

It seems like it a season ago when Clemson played Georgia on week one and literally got their asses handed to them. Since that happened, the Tigers ripped off five convincing wins. Unfortunately for this line, those wins didn’t age that well. We found out that Appalachian State wasn’t the Sun belt future champion that we all expected. We also found out that Florida State this year is hot garbage along with NC State, Wake Forest and Stanford. Now I will not say that the Cavalier’s schedule was all that hot, but they at least kept up at Louisville in their last game and should have won it out-right. Virginia has a decent +.34 net yards per play this year. They rank a healthy 53rd in defensive success rate while Clemson ranks 66th. A weakness that Clemson does have on defense is that they only rank 114th in opponent rush EPA. Giving up 4.5 yards per rush isn’t a good thing against a team that rushes the ball a good amount like Virginia. I think that Clemson could be flat here in this spot. They have a bye week coming up. I will take the points.

Virginia +21.5 – 2 stars

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