NFL preseason football is back this week and there are certainly some big opportunities in trying to predict the outcomes of these games. It is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, quarterback changes, new coordinators, rule changes, and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future. Some coaches are very motivated to win preseason games, or at least certain ones, and some coaches do not care to win these games at all.
Since last NFL football season, there have been eight head coaching changes, and two major rule changes that could effect the way that these games are being played out. The first rule change is that the kickoff coverage teams are going to be much closer to the receiving teams. This could have multiple effects of better field position being that if the ball doesn’t make it to the landing zone, the receiving team gets the ball at the 40 and if the ball goes into the End-zone, the receiving team gets it at the 30. There is also a better chance at a long return being that once the returner gets past the line, there may not be tacklers back far enough to be able to catch the returner. Should the ball hit the landing zone and roll into the end zone, the touchback goes to the 20 yard line. The second rule change has made “hip-drop” tackles illegal which in turn can only help the offense when driving down the field.
As far as the coaching changes are concerned, we do have data on three of the coaches in Jim Harbaugh, Dan Quinn and Raheem Morris to make educated preseason motivational decisions. We hope to use this data and information to capitalize on a successful preseason from a sports betting perspective. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally have to have at least eight games played, or three seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have zero significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game. Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during training camp and OTAs. They also like to stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.
Unfortunately, coaches come and go and every year we seem to lose at least one money maker. After last season we had to say goodbye to coach Pete Carol who had a nice 57% winning percentage in the preseason at 28-21. We also said goodbye to Brandon Staley who was only 33% at 3-6 in the preseason. Finally, Bill Belichik was a nice play on coach in the preseason at 56%. May the gods bless them with more coaching opportunities.
Some of the most winning coaches who will be paying our bills:
- Mike Tomlin at 41-20 at 67% – Schedule, Schmedule, I am on a 9-1 preseason run!
- Robert Salah at 7-2 at 78% – Rogers didn’t get hurt in the preseason so there’s that.
- John Harbaugh at 44-14 at 76% – Please forget about last year’s 1-2. Lamar wasn’t happy.
Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:
- Nick Siriani at 1-6 at 14% – No tush push needed to lose meaningless games. I did however tie twice.
- Dan Quinn at 6-15 at 29% – I am coming back to lose baby!
- Zac Taylor at 3-9 at 25% – No way can Joe play.
There also is a lot of up and comers with coaches like Kevin O’Connell who is 0-6 so far in the preseason and Dan Campbell who is 3-6. I think that looking at the coaching records week by week maybe the best way to gain an edge this preseason.
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. We must be cognizant enough to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Looking in the past for many of these coaches, they use to have four preseason games rather than three. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 15-1 in game one but only 9-7 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Mike McCarthy is only 6-11 in the first week but 18-11 in the middle weeks. Another coach to look at Sean Payton who is 18-11 in the middle weeks yet 4-11 in the final. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2024. The preseason schedule remains only three games. Even though this change is still at it’s youth, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
